Salary Cap: Trade deadline results - Your thoughts

[danielpalfredsson]

If you ignore reality that we went from having Stone/Karlsson/Duchene/Chabot/Tkachuk as a possible core, just look at things in terms of what we now have on paper, and not try to compare which is better or worse...then Ottawa is in a very good situation, especially so if Karl and Duchene re-sign with their respective teams in order to give the Senators more picks.

This team is going to be a last place team for at least the next two years, so there's a reasonable shot at getting 1st/2nd overall picks. The lottery is always a crap shoot, but we should have a reasonable shot at coming away from this downfall with at least one big star out of the draft.

The Senators have an elite scouting group, and now that group has more ammo than they've ever had in the history of this franchise. Over the next 3 years, the Senators could potentially have as many as 6 first round picks, 7 second round picks, and 4 third round picks. Consider how bad this team is going to be, and two of those first round picks are probably going to be in the top 5, three of the seconds will be in the top 35, and two of the thirds will be in the top 65.

Add in Brannstrom, Batherson, Chabot, Tkachuk, Brown, White as guys who are shaping out to have good chances at being top 6/4 or better F/D, and there is a lot to work with.

With that said, there are two major problems.

This first problem is, those picks and prospects are all on paper. It's going to be an incredibly toxic few seasons for the fan base, and the players are going to require incredibly leadership to not have years of losing ruin them mentally. As a fan, it's one thing to get excited about a prospect/draft pool, it's another to sit through 82 games a year for multiple years that do not matter because the team is out of the playoff running 20 games into the season. As fun as it can be to watch prospects, it's going to be a drag. This rebuild will take meaningful hockey away from Sens fans for the better part of the next five seasons.

The second problem, none of these pieces matter if we aren't committed to building things up and retaining players. If we are constantly spending at or around the cap floor, there's no way to build things up. We'll draft guys, take a few steps forward, and then have to take 100 steps back because we can't keep any of the players.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

We should have a poll rating it from A to F

Fixed

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Thing is I don't think contracts will be a problem in the next couple of years: We gotta pay SOMEBODY to get to the cap floor, so I am sure Tkachuk,Chabot,White, Brannstrom etc can be signed. The big issue is a few years after that when we have other prospects to sign+any of the older ones reaching UFA.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

If you ignore reality that we went from having Stone/Karlsson/Duchene/Chabot/Tkachuk as a possible core, just look at things in terms of what we now have on paper, and not try to compare which is better or worse...then Ottawa is in a very good situation, especially so if Karl and Duchene re-sign with their respective teams in order to give the Senators more picks.

This team is going to be a last place team for at least the next two years, so there's a reasonable shot at getting 1st/2nd overall picks. The lottery is always a crap shoot, but we should have a reasonable shot at coming away from this downfall with at least one big star out of the draft.

The Senators have an elite scouting group, and now that group has more ammo than they've ever had in the history of this franchise. Over the next 3 years, the Senators could potentially have as many as 6 first round picks, 7 second round picks, and 4 third round picks. Consider how bad this team is going to be, and two of those first round picks are probably going to be in the top 5, three of the seconds will be in the top 35, and two of the thirds will be in the top 65.

Add in Brannstrom, Batherson, Chabot, Tkachuk, Brown, White as guys who are shaping out to have good chances at being top 6/4 or better F/D, and there is a lot to work with.

With that said, there are two major problems.

This first problem is, those picks and prospects are all on paper. It's going to be an incredibly toxic few seasons for the fan base, and the players are going to require incredibly leadership to not have years of losing ruin them mentally. As a fan, it's one thing to get excited about a prospect/draft pool, it's another to sit through 82 games a year for multiple years that do not matter because the team is out of the playoff running 20 games into the season. As fun as it can be to watch prospects, it's going to be a drag. This rebuild will take meaningful hockey away from Sens fans for the better part of the next five seasons.

The second problem, none of these pieces matter if we aren't committed to building things up and retaining players. If we are constantly spending at or around the cap floor, there's no way to build things up. We'll draft guys, take a few steps forward, and then have to take 100 steps back because we can't keep any of the players.

I agree we have a good bunch of seeds in the flower box. Do you think they are smart enough to go get that leader they need from outside soon?

Honestly, If Boucher is not gone or made assistant, and they do not make some major organizational changes, I will have very little faith.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Stone trade is a mistake considering VEGAS SIGNED HIM. I'm heartbroken

 

[Calvin123]

I agree we have a good bunch of seeds in the flower box. Do you think they are smart enough to go get that leader they need from outside soon?

Honestly, If Boucher is not gone or made assistant, and they do not make some major organizational changes, I will have very little faith.

Leaders are highly sought after. If you were a highly sought after leader, would you choose the Ottawa Senators as the place to play? What do you think Mark Stone is going to say when a player gives him a call asking what his opinion was of playing for the Ottawa Senators... It goes a lot deeper than Boucher.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Thing is I don't think contracts will be a problem in the next couple of years: We gotta pay SOMEBODY to get to the cap floor, so I am sure Tkachuk,Chabot,White, Brannstrom etc can be signed. The big issue is a few years after that when we have other prospects to sign+any of the older ones reaching UFA.

Contracts will add up quickly.

Chabot will want 10 percent of the cap to sign 7-8 years.

Batherson is going to be a 7-9 million dollar player right off of his ELC if he is everything he is cracked up to be. Tkachuk is already a 20/50 type producer, he'll cost at least 6-7 million on a 6 year contract. That's assuming he doesn't progress like his brother has before the end of his ELC.

If we bridge these players because we don't want to commit to them, it's going to cost us much more later on.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Contracts will add up quickly.

Chabot will want 10 percent of the cap to sign 7-8 years.

Batherson is going to be a 7-9 million dollar player right off of his ELC if he is everything he is cracked up to be. Tkachuk is already a 20/50 type producer, he'll cost at least 6-7 million on a 6 year contract. That's assuming he doesn't progress like his brother has before the end of his ELC.

If we bridge these players because we don't want to commit to them, it's going to cost us much more later on.

Batherson will not command that money I’m almost certain. Overpaying on guys right after their ELC could be just as detrimental. Then you’re stuck with them

 

[JD1]

My view for sometime has been that we're in trouble in this market given the ever increasing salary band and the cost to play.

We need new ownership to come in that is well heeled enough and prepared to run operating losses. The challenge with that is eventually even sports teams will stop increasing in value. They are insanely overvalued as it is.

That said i thought we did ok with the trades. Not great but ok. The team has more stock up and coming than at any point in the team's history. If half of what we have maxes their potential we'll be a strong team in a few years.

 

[Karl Prime]

Contracts will add up quickly.

Chabot will want 10 percent of the cap to sign 7-8 years.

Batherson is going to be a 7-9 million dollar player right off of his ELC if he is everything he is cracked up to be. Tkachuk is already a 20/50 type producer, he'll cost at least 6-7 million on a 6 year contract. That's assuming he doesn't progress like his brother has before the end of his ELC.

If we bridge these players because we don't want to commit to them, it's going to cost us much more later on.

Chabot will cost 8+, Tkachuk 6+, White 5+, Batherson 4+, and Brannstrom, if he ends up being a stud, 6+.

 

[JD1]

Batherson will not command that money I’m almost certain. Overpaying on guys right after their ELC could be just as detrimental. Then you’re stuck with them

I think the league is evolving and you're going to see much larger percentages of budgets assigned to these types of contracts and a lot less of the Lucic type contracts or what Stone just signed.

They say it's becoming a young man's game and that certainly seems true. But right now it's the old guys making all the money and i expect we are already in the early stages of seeing that change.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

One development that might be really positive out of this is that Dorion did manage to grab some bodies to play out the season in Ottawa; Gibbons, Duclair and Lindberg.

This allows our guys to go down and make a run in the AHL. Plus they'll have their own deadline additions in Abramov and Brannstrom to go with Lajoie.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Chabot will cost 8+, Tkachuk 6+, White 5+, Batherson 4+, and Brannstrom, if he ends up being a stud, 6+.

Outside of Chabot and White, that is very optimistic. We could probably get White right now for 4.5 give or take on a 6-7 year term right now depending on his eagerness to sign long term. Chabot will command around 10 percent of the cap if we go 7-8 years. That's sort of the going rate for elite #1 defenders coming off of their ELCs.

6 million used to be sort of the standard number for young 1st/2nd line players on 6 year term. The cap is going way up. Batherson has a very high ceiling. If he becomes a first line type producer before the end of his ELC, the minimum we are getting him for on a longer term deal would be 7.

The point is, if these players turn out, the contracts are going to add up very very quickly. We can avoid it by bridging them, but then they cost more in the long run and we'll lose them sooner. That is what might happen, and it'll be a major problem.

 

[2CHAINZ]

What's the point of drafting superstars? Superstars = $$$

I say we trade all of our top picks for Chris Tierney type players that way we can lock them up.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Batherson will not command that money I’m almost certain. Overpaying on guys right after their ELC could be just as detrimental. Then you’re stuck with them

Batherson has two more years before the end of his ELC. He's got a tremendous offensively ceiling. 60+ point young players are going to be getting 7M+ on 6 year terms easily by the time his ELC is up. At that time, the cap will likely be approaching 90 million.

 

[Karl Prime]

Outside of Chabot and White, that is very optimistic. We could probably get White right now for 4.5 give or take on a 6-7 year term right now depending on his eagerness to sign long term. Chabot will command around 10 percent of the cap if we go 7-8 years. That's sort of the going rate for elite #1 defenders coming off of their ELCs.

6 million used to be sort of the standard number for young 1st/2nd line players on 6 year term. The cap is going way up. Batherson has a very high ceiling. If he becomes a first line type producer before the end of his ELC, the minimum we are getting him for on a longer term deal would be 7.

The point is, if these players turn out, the contracts are going to add up very very quickly. We can avoid it by bridging them, but then they cost more in the long run and we'll lose them sooner. That is what might happen, and it'll be a major problem.

Not to mention whatever a top 4 star-level pick could want after his ELC....

 

[swiftwin]

One development that might be really positive out of this is that Dorion did manage to grab some bodies to play out the season in Ottawa; Gibbons, Duclair and Lindberg.

This allows our guys to go down and make a run in the AHL. Plus they'll have their own deadline additions in Abramov and Brannstrom to go with Lajoie.

Belleville is going to be saaacked.

 

[swiftwin]

What's the point of drafting superstars? Superstars = $$$

I say we trade all of our top picks for Chris Tierney type players that way we can lock them up.

If Melnyk had his way, that's exactly what would be happening.

 

[Agent Zub]

Lol I get being optimistic as fans but come on.

If any of these prospects reach their potential they are out the door.

 

[Tkachuckycheese]

 

[BondraTime]

We got Brannstrom, who is a huge add.

After that, we didn't get much.

The 1st is going to be the next best piece, that could be an impact guy depending who's left.

Then, we got a bunch of spare parts.

2 forward prospects who are down the list of our own guys, and 3 2nds.

That's including a signed Stone.

Brannstrom brings it up, but not getting much else after that is pretty disappointing.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Not to mention whatever a top 4 star-level pick could want after his ELC....

Yes.

If we get Lafreniere, and he's a legitimate superstar putting up 80-90 points buy the end of his ELC, we'll be looking at anywhere from 10-15 million to extend him depending on term, how good he actually is, and where the salary cap is. (Probably not 15, but it's a possibility, Matthews ask was close to that on an 8 year contract). Although, my argument doesn't hinge on that possibility since us getting Lafreniere or his equivalent is far from certain.

Contracts are inflating a lot due to the AAVs being tied to the cap ceiling which is going up at a faster pace than it previously was, and it is strategically prudent to be able to lock down players right off of their ELCs which generally takes giving players a bit more money a bit sooner to accomplish.

Melnyk is going to have to be willing to spend to some extent by 2021 (as he claimed) to keep even the current group together. The only exception would be if all of our prospects/young players busted.

 

[Sun God Nika]

Out
Duchene
Stone
Dzingel
Bergman

In
Lindberg
Duclair
Bannstrom
Abramov
Davidsson
2019 1st(top 3 protected)
2020 2nd CBJ
2020 2nd DAL
2021 2nd CBJ
2020 1st** if Duchene re-signs

everything not in bold is shit.

 

[The Lewler]

I'm don't care. I'm done now.

Karlsson + Stone gone for absolutely no good reason (aka Melnyk) , I'm totally done.

 

[PeterSidorkiewicz]

That Neil photo