Blue Jays Discussion: Trade Deadline Edition - Live from New York: The Stro-Show

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Skolman

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Feb 16, 2018
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I’m interested in how they plan to acquire top end pitching to go along with the current crop of talent. Without trading one of the studs they’re very limited in what they can do.

They may have shot themselves in the foot by not trading after the 2016 failure.
They have one of the best pitching prospect pools in all of baseball.

Pearson
Manoah
SWR
Pardinho
Kloffenstein
Williams
Kay
Borucki
Reid-Folley
Murphy

Pitching won't be an issue long-term, especially with Shatkins draft history and success.

Also, they are stockpiling prospects. This is extremely important when the time comes and they can go out and try to sign Cole, Verlander, Syndergaard type arms.

Majority of the best pitchers in the league aren't with the team that drafted them.

Also, just to add. SRW is getting severely underrated. He's arguably the best 18 yr old pitching prospect in baseball right now. He is a lock for the top 100 next year, and could potentially have a Patino rise in the rankings.(doubtful, but possible)
 

Apotheosis

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Mar 27, 2014
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No one is saying Sanchez had high value. However, he should have returned a Fisher type player himself.

Let alone adding in Biagini and Stevenson lmao

I am not saying any of the recent trades were perfect. But it is way overblown. Biagini isn't anything special and Stevenson hasn't exactly impressed. It's clear that the FO is attempting to stockpile as many arms as possible to add to the good prospect pool. The 1-5 hitting order is essentially set in stone for the most part. There will be pain (top 3 pick likely next draft) but with added growth of Vladdy, Bo, Gurriel etc, and bringing up highly touted guys like Pardinho and Pearson, it lines up perfectly with the next good FA period.
 
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selltrade

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They have one of the best pitching prospect pools in all of baseball.

Pearson
Manoah
SWR
Pardinho
Kloffenstein
Williams
Kay
Borucki
Reid-Folley
Murphy

Pitching won't be an issue long-term, especially with Shatkins draft history and success.

Also, they are stockpiling prospects. This is extremely important when the time comes and they can go out and try to sign Cole, Verlander, Syndergaard type arms.

Majority of the best pitchers in the league aren't with the team that drafted them.

Also, just to add. SRW is getting severely underrated. He's arguably the best 18 yr old pitching prospect in baseball right now. He is a lock for the top 100 next year, and could potentially have a Patino rise in the rankings.(doubtful, but possible)
Zeuch, Diaz and maybe Perez
 

SeaOfBlue

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Zeuch, Diaz and maybe Perez

Don't forget all of the older upper minors/major leaguer guys like Merryweather, Paulino, Borucki, Thornton, Pannone, etc. They'll all be in their late 20's or early 30's by the time the Jays compete, but those guys should be given a chance now to turn into something. Maybe they become trade chips instead of players, but there is nothing wrong with that from the Jays' perspective.
 
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Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
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They seem to target the same profile of hitter and the same profile of pitcher (exception being SWR) in trades. But then they go and draft completely different. It's strange.

SWR is a profile that they have coveted though. He's similarly advanced physically like Pearson, Manoah, and Kloffenstein. I think what they're doing via trades is that they're looking to supplement the core and stabilize the pitching with rotation depth and relievers that can toss multiple innings. They seem to have made a focus on proximity as opposed to high risk, rookie ball lottery tickets because the core is moving along quickly.
 
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selltrade

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Don't forget all of the older upper minors/major leaguer guys like Merryweather, Paulino, Borucki, Thornton, Pannone, etc. They'll all be in their late 20's or early 30's by the time the Jays compete, but those guys should be given a chance now to turn into something. Maybe they become trade chips instead of players, but there is nothing wrong with that from the Jays' perspective.
the other intriguing one will be Elvis Luciano
 
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BlueForever75

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Oct 4, 2017
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This is more like it. Talking about what we have rather then what we gave up.

I like it.

ShAtikins know what they are doing. I have been saying it since the Stroman trade was completed, what we got in return will be part of the core in a large way. SWR is the real deal. Think David Price earlier in his career!!!! That's his ceiling.
 
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Skolman

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Feb 16, 2018
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Zeuch, Diaz and maybe Perez

Don't forget all of the older upper minors/major leaguer guys like Merryweather, Paulino, Borucki, Thornton, Pannone, etc. They'll all be in their late 20's or early 30's by the time the Jays compete, but those guys should be given a chance now to turn into something. Maybe they become trade chips instead of players, but there is nothing wrong with that from the Jays' perspective.

I'm not as high on those guys, but they could end up being solid back of the rotation type arms.

I don't think a lot of "casual" Jays fans realize what the Jays are building.

Am I happy with the Sanchez trade? No, not really. Do I see what Shatkins is trying to do? Yes. Trading a player like Aaron Sanchez could come back to bite us, there's definitely risk. They see something in Fisher though, clearly. He hits the ball hard and has elite speed, there is other parts of his game he has to work on for sure. But you don't acquire a player that doesn't have faults for the package the Jays gave up.

If there is a management that really likes a player, and sees upside in there game. Should players like Sanchez hold up a trade? No. He's arguably been the worst SP this year. He has a recurring blister issue. He's a Free Agent in 1.5 years. Scott Boras, his agent will get this guy overpaid, and that's just something Shatkins wouldn't do so he would just end up leaving TO for nothing.

As for the Stro trade, I don't mind it. I see tremendous upside in SWR, who doesn't recieve the recognition he deserves.

No one can dispute that this Front-Office and their scouts have been very successful in the draft, the Jays prospect pool is proof of that. SWR was the guy they wanted desperately in 2018, but the Mets scooped him up before the Jays had the chance in the 2nd round. Mark my words, we will look back at this trade and be thankful it was completed.

Just going to add this also, because it doesn't get talked about in Canada enough. I feel like AA recieved a free pass from Jays fans, he literally left Shatkins with absolutely nothing in the prospect pool aside from Vladdy. I get "going all in" for those 2 years, but he also made some horrendous trades. The trades Shatkins completed in the last 5 days don't come close to how bad that Syndergaard trade was.


Am I saying I absolutely love this Front Office? Definitely not. They don't get the appreciation they deserve though when it comes to the players they have brought into the franchise, mainly Bichette & Pearson as of today. This list will expand in a couple years.

There are brighter days ahead, and I'm fully confident in that. There is a plan here, but patience is key.

Edit: one more thing to add, that probably doesn't need to be mentioned. Adding a Torkelson/Martin/Crow-Armstrong type bat next year in the draft will be huge, and only add to the young core we have. I expect they will draft a position player next year in the top 5, not a pitcher.
 
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Skolman

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Feb 16, 2018
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This is more like it. Talking about what we have rather then what we gave up.

I like it.

ShAtikins know what they are doing. I have been saying it since the Stroman trade was completed, what we got in return will be part of the core in a large way. SWR is the real deal. Think David Price earlier in his career!!!! That's his ceiling.
I like the positively, but let's not get ahead of ourselves :laugh:

Although SWR does in fact have better numbers than a lot of elite pitchers at the same age, Syndergaard & MadBum to name a couple.
 

sabresEH

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I like the positively, but let's not get ahead of ourselves :laugh:

Although SWR does in fact have better numbers than a lot of elite pitchers at the same age, Syndergaard & MadBum to name a couple.
Well he’s not wrong. He’s only talking about his potential. Didn’t say he WILL become that. And all you did was add more high end comparables.
 

phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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This is interesting, not that i expect a lot of this to happen but this could be the new market inefficiency or a way to extract value - bet we see the Yankees pull off one of these deals;

So, What Can Teams Do In August?

No more! We’ve already examined the new trade deadline rules in a detailed rulebook reading. But that’s not for everyone. What you want to know is: how can my team get new players from here through the end of the season?

Dealing for prospects: Who knows? We may even see some higher-end talent moved if a contender gets desperate and sees an opportunity. That used to happen all the time … albeit generally not with the pre-MLB piece moving to a contender. The reason major August trades were possible in the past was that non-40-man talent could be swapped without having to pass through waivers. Remember when the Astros sent three quality prospects to the Tigers for Justin Verlander(whose big contract had cleared revocable trade waivers)? That particular deal couldn’t happen any more, since Verlander couldn’t be traded, but all such prospects can be dealt as freely as ever. It’s conceivable we’ll see prospect-for-prospect arrangements happen this August. It’s hard to imagine elite players being shipped around, but not impossible. More likely, perhaps, would be a move involving a fast-moving, recently drafted collegiate reliever or lower-ceiling starter who hadn’t yet been placed on a 40-man roster.

Maybe this could be a time for a team to capitalize on this opportunity and the market. Kind of like an early/in season rule 5 draft.

If there is a playoff team out there ravaged by injuries and/or ineffective play and they need arms or position player depth to make the playoffs or play in the playoffs and they need a body but they have no one in the upper minors that can play or someone they trust in September or later, might be a opportunity to get better assets.

Cant trade off the 40 man roster but say the Jays offered up lower ceiling prospect who is ready now and not on the 40 man roster for a higher ceiling prospect further away from the majors (also not on the roster).

These playoff teams dont have much of a choice because there are slim pickings in terms of trade.

So if a AAA Jays prospect has a good month proving they are ready and a playoff team is desperate for help, maybe they can turn that prospect into potentially a higher ceiling prospect further away.

Position players wont be an easy sell as they would be fringe bats who are fast, pinch runners which we have a lot of. But its the pitchers that might get more interest to be pen arms.

Notable players not on the 4o man;
OF Dalton Pompey
OF Socrates Brito
OF/IF Alen Hanson
OF Roemon Fields
OF/IF Patrick Kivlehan

P TJ Zeuch
P Anthony Kay

P Kirby Sneed
P Jason Adam
P Thomas Hatch

Jays may not want to move many of those pitchers but if someone is desperate it is something to consider.

It would have to take a savvy and experienced front office like the Ray, Yankees, Dodgers or Astros to identify someone the like and pull a trade off like this to use someone like this over someone else in their org. Meaning it isnt likely to happen but something for non contenders to think about at the next deadline. Target upper minors prospects with results who are on the verge of being rule 5 eligible, if you arent getting offers you like on your players at the deadline. Maybe those type of players become trade chips in the August.
 

Skolman

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Feb 16, 2018
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Well he’s not wrong. He’s only talking about his potential. Didn’t say he WILL become that. And all you did was add more high end comparables.
I stated that his numbers are better than those players at the same age, I didn't say he will be at that level.

Sure, Price is his ceiling. But that's also like saying that the Jays have 5 players in their franchise right now that have Hall of Fame potential.
 

Radiohead

Street Spirit
Sep 6, 2008
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They have one of the best pitching prospect pools in all of baseball.

Pearson
Manoah
SWR
Pardinho
Kloffenstein
Williams
Kay
Borucki
Reid-Folley
Murphy

Where does Josh Winckowski fit in? Seems fairly young for high A ball but putting up some nice numbers. According to this article (written in June) his fastball's been touching 95-97 MPH.
 

Canada4Gold

Registered User
Dec 22, 2010
42,969
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Where does Josh Winckowski fit in? Seems fairly young for high A ball but putting up some nice numbers. According to this article (written in June) his fastball's been touching 95-97 MPH.

It was crazy to me that mlb.com updated their prospect rankings recently and he still didn’t crack the top 30. I have him as a top 20 Jays prospect
 

Skolman

Registered User
Feb 16, 2018
9,326
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Where does Josh Winckowski fit in? Seems fairly young for high A ball but putting up some nice numbers. According to this article (written in June) his fastball's been touching 95-97 MPH.
I always forget about him, but there is definitely some legit upside there.

You're right, his numbers for a 21 yr in high A are impressive.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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I like the positively, but let's not get ahead of ourselves :laugh:

Although SWR does in fact have better numbers than a lot of elite pitchers at the same age, Syndergaard & MadBum to name a couple.

Since 2006, Age 18, A ball, min 10gs, with numbers anywhere close to SWR's, of guys who are no longer prospects:

Bumgarner: 24gs, 2.06fip, 2.75xfip - Ace
S.W.Richardson: 20gs, 2.55fip, 2.28xfip
(Syndergaard: 2gs, 2.03fip, 2.95xfip ----- Ace - only actually pitched 2 games in A as an 18yr old)
M.Perez: 14gs, 2.74fip, 2.88xfip ----- mid rotation
J.Lyles: 26gs, 2.70fip, 2.93xfip ------- bottom-rotation
M.Soroka: 24gs, 2.78fip, 3.21xfip ---- #1 already at age 21
T.Walker: 18gs, 2.86fip, 2.94xfip ----- Mid-rotation
R.Osuna: 10gs, 3.69fip, 2.73xfip ----- Ace closer
M.Banuelos: 19gs, 3.03fip, 3.38xfip -- Bust
J.Knapp: 17gs, 3.13fip, 3.39xfip ---- ace prospect that blew out his shoulder
T.Skaggs: 18gs, 3.51fip, 3.34xfip --- Mid-rotation


first thing you notice is that almost nobody does what SWR has already done. second thing you notice is that the success rate for guys who come anywhere remotely close to that kind of performance is almost 100%. Third thing you notice is that the only guys who legit put up similar numbers are both aces.
 
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Epictetus

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SWR is a profile that they have coveted though. He's similarly advanced physically like Pearson, Manoah, and Kloffenstein. I think what they're doing via trades is that they're looking to supplement the core and stabilize the pitching with rotation depth and relievers that can toss multiple innings. They seem to have made a focus on proximity as opposed to high risk, rookie ball lottery tickets because the core is moving along quickly.

I don't agree with it (targeting proximity), but it makes sense for them when they speak about waves of depth they want in the organization.
 

sabresEH

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I stated that his numbers are better than those players at the same age, I didn't say he will be at that level.

Sure, Price is his ceiling. But that's also like saying that the Jays have 5 players in their franchise right now that have Hall of Fame potential.
And neither did the guy you quoted. That’s all I’m saying.
 

TheMadHatTrick

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Nov 2, 2008
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I was thinking about this yesterday. The only way this works out for Atkins/Shapiro is Bichette and Vlad living up their potential, which I am confident they well, and Pearson being an ace. I know there are other players involved, but those are the big 3. If one of them falters, we are in trouble.
I think they're hoping in terms of pitching through trades that if they acquire enough of them, one or more of them turn into a Kluber or Carrasco, where they just vastly outperform projections.

I'm not really worried about the pitching though. As the Cubs, Astros, and Red Sox showed, you can always acquire that later (Verlander, Cole, Greinke, Sale, Lester). I hope they focus on BPA in prospect acquisition (which is why it troubled me to hear they were narrowly focused on pitching in any Stroman trade). Like, you're telling me Kirilloff wouldn't look amazing with this core (not saying he was available, just an example)?

As far as Atkins performance, people keep bringing up the draft and international signings as if they somehow offset Atkins' seemingly weak negotiating ability. Your job as GM is more than just drafting well (and that's not even in your purview anyway, since that's the job of the scouting director). You have to do everything semi-well. I can't think of a team that was a contender who just got by on drafting well. Unless you're just so much better at it than the rest of the league, I don't know if that alone will cut it.

Moreover, where the GM should be judged most is in his trades and signings, since those are things he's directly responsible for. I have serious misgivings about Atkins trading acumen, based on a combination of the results, his comments, and his communication style and how he carries himself.

The Jays were smart enough to dump Rob Parker, whose drafts, with the exception of Bo, have been pretty garbage. I hope they'll move on from Atkins after his contract is up at the end of 2020, and put him in a position he's more adept in (he was previously in player development). Maybe elevate Cherrington to GM or let Shapiro be President and GM, or find someone from the outside. I just dont have much faith in this guy.
 

deletethis

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Mar 17, 2015
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These "Shatkins" people annoyed the heck out of me from day 1 but I've crossed over to their side. It's almost like he's sabotaging the franchise intentionally. His love for obscure, nearly failing prospects and horrible timing is unprecedented. We've had the arrogant know-it-all GM (Ricciardi) and the smooth talking fraud (Ash). This guy is the captain of the Titanic. /vent
 
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