Trade and Free Agent Discussion Thread - 2018/2019 Season v3

[RLF]

This is not at all comparable to what Tampa gave for McDonagh at all. Howden and Hajek weren't in the NHL first of all. I think Kapanen is worth so much more than Namestnikov but even if you think he's worth about the same, comparing Hajek or even Howden to Dermott is pretty bad.

And Tampa Bay got Miller in this, not just McDonagh.

If this is what the Blues want for Pietrangelo, they might as well just re-sign him because there's not a single team that would.

You forgot the 1st and 2nd/1st that Tampa also gave up. Do you think JT Miller was worth more than a 1st? If so, wow.
You would also have to compare value at time of trade, not now using hindsight. And when comparing a prospect to a 2nd year NHL player, you have to look at projected ceilings. Howden is doing quite well this year on a crappy team. Dermott has the luxury of playing on a good team as a 3rd pair guy. Dermott may not look so good on NYR, especially if he had to play 1st or 2nd pair.

As for my "projected value" I said if they want young already NHL players that is likely the cost. Funny how Chris Johnston came out right after what I thought value was and said exactly what I said. The Blues would likely want NHL ready young player, but the Leafs likely won't want to do that. Then said that if it was more prospect driven, it would likely take Liligren/Sandin(top 4 projected D), A first(like I said) and a roster player likely Kapanen/Johnsson(I said Kapanen).

Since Liligren and Sandin are our highest D prospects that are top 4 projected not in the NHL...the NHL playing comparable is Dermott. Liligren and/or Sandin could end up being better than Dermott, we don't know and only time will tell. Seems like I am not the only one that puts that kind of value on Piet and what it is figured Blues would want for return.

As much as you say...why do other teams not have to give up so much and only Leafs would. It is more like some Leaf fans value our guys higher than what is given up by other teams because they only know about our guys and how much they mean to the Leafs. Bias is strong in favour of Leafs players.

 

[SprDaVE]

You forgot the 1st and 2nd/1st that Tampa also gave up. Do you think JT Miller was worth more than a 1st? If so, wow.
You would also have to compare value at time of trade, not now using hindsight. And when comparing a prospect to a 2nd year NHL player, you have to look at projected ceilings. Howden is doing quite well this year on a crappy team. Dermott has the luxury of playing on a good team as a 3rd pair guy. Dermott may not look so good on NYR, especially if he had to play 1st or 2nd pair.

As for my "projected value" I said if they want young already NHL players that is likely the cost. Funny how Chris Johnston came out right after what I thought value was and said exactly what I said. The Blues would likely want NHL ready young player, but the Leafs likely won't want to do that. Then said that if it was more prospect driven, it would likely take Liligren/Sandin(top 4 projected D), A first(like I said) and a roster player likely Kapanen/Johnsson(I said Kapanen).

Since Liligren and Sandin are our highest D prospects that are top 4 projected not in the NHL...the NHL playing comparable is Dermott. Liligren and/or Sandin could end up being better than Dermott, we don't know and only time will tell. Seems like I am not the only one that puts that kind of value on Piet and what it is figured Blues would want for return.

As much as you say...why do other teams not have to give up so much and only Leafs would. It is more like some Leaf fans value our guys higher than what is given up by other teams because they only know about our guys and how much they mean to the Leafs. Bias is strong in favour of Leafs players.

I said that Dermott, Kapanen and a 1st for Pietrangelo, as good as he is, is flatout terrible in value because of their potential and current NHL status. We'll have to agree to disagree as to how the pieces are valued compared to a McDonagh trade, but I do think Miller and McDonagh were the 2 best players in that trade and all Tampa Bay had to give up is a mediocre NHLer, a top prospect and a mediocre prospect along with a top pick. Miller is definitely worth more than a 1st as he showed to be that he is. He was fantastic for them down the stretch and was only 23 years old.

Either way, Pietrangelo won't be easy to acquire and it's unlikely he's moved. With his hand injury and all that, it makes it even less likely. I don't think the Leafs have any interest to trade Dermott or Kapanen with a cup run in mind --- with good reason.

 

[RLF]

I think Brown and Zai will both be in a package for Pietra. Add some draft picks and another prospect will probably do it.
Like someone mentioned, I really don’t think Dubas is going to overpay for anyone at the moment. So if Armstrong want a shakeup, then he must take guys like Zai and Brown.

So, if we were looking for a "shake up" and had a top 10 in the League D-man and Dubas traded him for player(s) an other team was trying to unload (who had lots of term left) and some picks and a prospect...you would be happy with that?

 

[RLF]

I said that Dermott, Kapanen and a 1st for Pietrangelo, as good as he is, is flatout terrible in value because of their potential and current NHL status. We'll have to agree to disagree as to how the pieces are valued compared to a McDonagh trade, but I do think Miller and McDonagh were the 2 best players in that trade and all Tampa Bay had to give up is a mediocre NHLer, a top prospect and a mediocre prospect along with a top pick. Miller is definitely worth more than a 1st as he showed to be that he is. He was fantastic for them down the stretch and was only 23 years old.

Either way, Pietrangelo won't be easy to acquire and it's unlikely he's moved. With his hand injury and all that, it makes it even less likely.

Yea, agree to disagree about T-bay value they gave up for a lesser D-man.

Bolded-That is because you think you know what you have in Dermott/Kapanen and you aren't sure with Liligren/Sandin. What if Kappy, who has never put up points like this before, goes to STL and becomes no more than a 3rd line 25-30 pt guy? What if Dermott/Liligren/Sandin never developed past a 3rd pair guy? You will say unlikely, which is exactly why STL would want that value back. They are still taking a risk, but they aren't taking on projects for a proven NHL star D-man.
We are talking about acquiring a proven top 10 NHL RHD. A stable on Team Canada. There is no doubts of ability. Everything the Leafs would give up has doubts to it including the 1st rounder. Now, if we were trading Rielly for Piet...it is likely a 1 for 1 and I would say STL may have to add because of age and contract status. Rielly is a proven 1st pair D-man, Dermott is not. He is a developing 3rd pair right now.

I also said Piet is a huge longshot because of these factors as I don't think the Leafs will want to give up the ask unless it is along the lines of futures and not much off the roster. And the only way the Blues do this, is if they rebuild and project our futures to be as good or even better than how they would project Dermott and Kapanen/Johnsson.

 

[Critical13]

Yea, agree to disagree about T-bay value they gave up for a lesser D-man.

Bolded-That is because you think you know what you have in Dermott/Kapanen and you aren't sure with Liligren/Sandin. What if Kappy, who has never put up points like this before, goes to STL and becomes no more than a 3rd line 25-30 pt guy? What if Dermott/Liligren/Sandin never developed past a 3rd pair guy? You will say unlikely, which is exactly why STL would want that value back. They are still taking a risk, but they aren't taking on projects for a proven NHL star D-man.
We are talking about acquiring a proven top 10 NHL RHD. A stable on Team Canada. There is no doubts of ability. Everything the Leafs would give up has doubts to it including the 1st rounder. Now, if we were trading Rielly for Piet...it is likely a 1 for 1 and I would say STL may have to add because of age and contract status. Rielly is a proven 1st pair D-man, Dermott is not. He is a developing 3rd pair right now.

I also said Piet is a huge longshot because of these factors as I don't think the Leafs will want to give up the ask unless it is along the lines of futures and not much off the roster. And the only way the Blues do this, is if they rebuild and project our futures to be as good or even better than how they would project Dermott and Kapanen/Johnsson.

I mean, that's the whole risk with trading established players for futures.

What if Kapanen becomes a regular on St. Louis top line and becomes a 30g 70pt winger? What if Liljegren becomes a steady Stralman type on their top pairing? The late first could turn into another Sandin type pick. In that scenario, they've gotten a young speedy 1st liner who kills penalties, 2 top 4 D all cost controllable for 5-8 years and they only gave up a declining top pairing defenceman who has 1,5 years left and plays a position where the organization has options.

That package is better than what NYR got, and NYR also gave up a top 6 winger in their deal.

They could hold on to him as well, and hope he signs in 1.5 years and hasn't declined much. Seems smarter to move him now and fill multiple needs in as year where it would take a miracle to revert back to contender status. If not to Toronto, I think they should look at Colorado, NYI and Buffalo as other options where they could acquire good future pieces for him.

 

[justafan22]

Pysyk for Brown is a trade I could see happening.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Frederik Gauthier for Tim Heed is a small move that could have some upside for us I think.

Why? Heed is 27, an offensive defense man, and not even a great one at that. He's not good enough for our top 6 and would probably not even supplant Marincin and Holl as depth guys.

Gauthier has far more upside and fills a larger need. I doubt the Leafs trade him, and SJ is probably looking for one of a true vet.

 

[smitty10]

Pysyk for Brown is a trade I could see happening.

I don't really want Brown moved, but the D needs to be upgraded and his contract is a bit rich for what he brings to the table at this point. Pysyk is more of a replacement for Zaitsev or Oz if you ask me. He's not a guy that can play on our top pairing with Rielly.

Maybe offer Florida something along the lines of Zaitsev + 3rd round pick for Pysyk? They aren't a cap team and could use the assets to help build their future. It's also pretty obvious that Pysyk isn't in their long term plans. Maybe he could be a decent guy for us. He's not the answer to our defence issues, but is a cheaper piece that would bring at least what Z does.

 

[hizzoner]

I don't really want Brown moved, but the D needs to be upgraded and his contract is a bit rich for what he brings to the table at this point. Pysyk is more of a replacement for Zaitsev or Oz if you ask me. He's not a guy that can play on our top pairing with Rielly.

Maybe offer Florida something along the lines of Zaitsev + 3rd round pick for Pysyk? They aren't a cap team and could use the assets to help build their future. It's also pretty obvious that Pysyk isn't in their long term plans. Maybe he could be a decent guy for us. He's not the answer to our defence issues, but is a cheaper piece that would bring at least what Z does.

Pysyk is a better player and will not come with a cap anchor like Zaitsev.

 

[pspot]

Why? Heed is 27, an offensive defense man, and not even a great one at that. He's not good enough for our top 6 and would probably not even supplant Marincin and Holl as depth guys.

Gauthier has far more upside and fills a larger need. I doubt the Leafs trade him, and SJ is probably looking for one of a true vet.

Would take more than goat but I'd want roy if dealing with sj

 

[jaric1862]

A guy who flies under the radar but would be an amazing pick up for the TDL is Raffl. He's not the biggest guy, but plays a gritty, 2-way game and wins a lot of puck battles. He isn't afraid to drop the gloves. He can also play up and down the lineup. He would be an amazing pick up for us for probably a 4th and a prospect.

 

[RLF]

I mean, that's the whole risk with trading established players for futures.

What if Kapanen becomes a regular on St. Louis top line and becomes a 30g 70pt winger? What if Liljegren becomes a steady Stralman type on their top pairing? The late first could turn into another Sandin type pick. In that scenario, they've gotten a young speedy 1st liner who kills penalties, 2 top 4 D all cost controllable for 5-8 years and they only gave up a declining top pairing defenceman who has 1,5 years left and plays a position where the organization has options.

That package is better than what NYR got, and NYR also gave up a top 6 winger in their deal.

They could hold on to him as well, and hope he signs in 1.5 years and hasn't declined much. Seems smarter to move him now and fill multiple needs in as year where it would take a miracle to revert back to contender status. If not to Toronto, I think they should look at Colorado, NYI and Buffalo as other options where they could acquire good future pieces for him.

Yes Kapanen/Liligren could develop well. The pick could be a Sandin, but we really don't know for sure what Sandin is at the NHL level yet. It is because they are unproven is why you likely have to give them up is my point. Give them proven assets and you don't need to give as much, but all depends on the team that is selling what direction they are going in. Plus, who says Piet is in decline? Not sure where you are getting him in decline from.

The package NYR got is similar in value in comparison to the player they were giving up. Piet will have more value than Mcdonagh. Mcdonagh to many was considered possibly finished at the time. No one is saying that about Piet. They got Miller yes, but gave up an extra 2nd that could become a 1st. No way Miller was worth more than a 1st at the time.imo

Yes, they should look at other teams if they want to move him. As I have said many times, coming to the Leafs is a longshot.

 

[Critical13]

Yes Kapanen/Liligren could develop well. The pick could be a Sandin, but we really don't know for sure what Sandin is at the NHL level yet. It is because they are unproven is why you likely have to give them up is my point. Give them proven assets and you don't need to give as much, but all depends on the team that is selling what direction they are going in. Plus, who says Piet is in decline? Not sure where you are getting him in decline from.

The package NYR got is similar in value in comparison to the player they were giving up. Piet will have more value than Mcdonagh. Mcdonagh to many was considered possibly finished at the time. No one is saying that about Piet. They got Miller yes, but gave up an extra 2nd that could become a 1st. No way Miller was worth more than a 1st at the time.imo

Yes, they should look at other teams if they want to move him. As I have said many times, coming to the Leafs is a longshot.

Here's the problem with giving up the farm for Pie:

5v5	Game Score/60	P1/60	CF%	CF% rel	GF%	GF% rel	xGF%	xGF% rel	ZSR
Alex Pietrangelo	1.02	0.69	49.94	3.43	42.86	-3.69	47.95	-0.11	41.79
Jake Gardiner	1.23	1.25	49.25	-1.17	62	7.57	49.89	0.26	45.78

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Do we really want to sacrifice our beloved forward depth for a player who is a defensive upgrade on Gardiner (but an offensive downgrade), who is 28 and who also does not have a contract past next year?

Imagine trading William Nylander for 1.5 years of a slightly upgraded Gardiner.

If we don't win a cup in 1 of those 2 years, that's looked at as an all time bad trade. Especially if Pie walks for demands 8x10 on his next deal.

 

[Menzinger]

Piet Is also on injured reserve right now and apparently will need major surgery.

Not exactly the player you want to pay a kings ransom for right now

 

[Kiwi]

Piet Is also on injured reserve right now and apparently will need major surgery.

Not exactly the player you want to pay a kings ransom for right now

Gutting the organizational depth this season taking a homerun cut the season before Marner and Matthews get there new deals would be a mistake imo, were going to need every cheap/young player we can get next season

There has to be someone out there that won't cost an arm and a leg to acquire that could help us, buried in an organization or currently in a depth role for somebody else

Another teams Leivo if you will

 

[ToneDog]

Here's the problem with giving up the farm for Pie:

5v5	Game Score/60	P1/60	CF%	CF% rel	GF%	GF% rel	xGF%	xGF% rel	ZSR
Alex Pietrangelo	1.02	0.69	49.94	3.43	42.86	-3.69	47.95	-0.11	41.79
Jake Gardiner	1.23	1.25	49.25	-1.17	62	7.57	49.89	0.26	45.78

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Do we really want to sacrifice our beloved forward depth for a player who is a defensive upgrade on Gardiner (but an offensive downgrade), who is 28 and who also does not have a contract past next year?

Imagine trading William Nylander for 1.5 years of a slightly upgraded Gardiner.

If we don't win a cup in 1 of those 2 years, that's looked at as an all time bad trade. Especially if Pie walks for demands 8x10 on his next deal.

AP is not a slight upgrade over Gards. AP is a #1/#2 dman but I would not be willing to give up what I think he will cost, especially if he needs major surgery. I would set my target lower unless Blues want to unload him to the Leafs because AP wants to come home.

 

[Cor]

We aren't trading Nylander for Pietrangelo.

Johnsson or Kappy/Zaitsev/1st/Prospect/Maybe Something else? I can see it happening depending on Matthews/Marner contracts.

It's a deal that would happen in the summer, when we can sign Piet to an extension.

Imagine having Tavares, Pietrangelo, Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly, Kadri, all locked up for 3+ seasons and Andy/Hyman for 2, and then whatever one of Johnsson/Kappy that isn't in the deal there as well.

Dermott and Brown are the only guys we need to sign after the 19-20 season really with Marleau's 6.5 coming off the block. Brown won't get much more, if any increase at all on his 2.1. Dermott is likely around 3-3.5M I would think with decent term (don't see him getting more than what Rielly makes at 4.5M at the HIGH end).

 

[DougGilmour93]

Kapanen (breakout yr)
Bracco (ready for NHL duty)
Zaitsev (RHD)
Sparks (can platoon with Allen)
1st (always a great asset)

For

Pietrangelo (clearly a #1 RHD, but is struggling)
Binnington (can slot in as backup)

 

[I am Canadian]

I'd rather target Parayko. What would we have to give up?

Johnsson, Brown, Liljgren, 1st + 3rd? Looks like too little but I don't know.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

I'd rather target Parayko. What would we have to give up?

Johnsson, Brown, Liljgren, 1st + 3rd? Looks like too little but I don't know.

Nylander would likely be going the other way. Interesting that a report just came out minutes ago that everyone on the Blues is available. If you're gonna try and get Parayko, now is the time.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Saw this on the trade forums.

I could see Dubas making a big futures package to try to nab the leafs a top 4 RD.

 

[Pi]

I'd definitely target Jake Allen.











For the Marlies.

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

Brown and a 3rd

 

[Menzinger]

I doubt that’s true.

Most of the team will be perhaps, but some guys will likely be so expensive in terms of asking price they’ll be defacto untradeable.

Ie they aren’t trading Parayko, no matter how much some folks on here want him.

 

[Menzinger]

There’s a BIG difference between “available” and “affordable”.