Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk XLIV

[57special]

Here's a crazy idea to help with cap space: maybe don't put over $6m on the third pairing. Let Cole walk and trade/lose Soucy to SEA. Play both Menell and Addison on the third pair. Saves the same amount of cap space without significantly downgrading.

Cole will not be paid 4M/yr next year. If i had to guess, it would be under 2, giving the Soucy Cole duo an AAV of 4.5M-4.75M vs. Dumba's 6M. If we replace Cole and Soucy with Menell and Addison, we still have to pay them- probably about 2M for both. So we'd save 2.5-2.75M on the third pairing.

By replacing Dumba with Menell/Addison, we'd save 5M in cap, for a net saving of about 2.5M.

What lineup would you rather have?

Suter Spurgeon
Brodin Dumba
Menell Addison

-two small, offensive RHD rookies, making for 4 RHD
- this lineup cost us 2.5M more

or


Suter Spurgeon
Brodin Menell
Soucy Addison

- saves 2.5M
- balance of size and skill
- balance of LD and RD


Completely as an aside, I am not in favor re-signing Cole, unless it's a really low AAV, and for no more than 2 yrs. He is getting way up there in age.

Click to read more...

 

[Digitalbooya]

$3.25M gives us the additional space to upgrade the center position.

-Soucy ~ $2.75m
~Cole resigning for less = $2M in savings
+Menell ~ $1.5M

Boom. There is your cap space and you didn't blow a hole in the top pairing.

 

[ThatGuy22]

If our biggest issue is who is playing third pairing D then we are pretty well off, especially when the other option is blowing a hole through the top pairing.


So run
Brodin-Dumba
Suter-Spurgeon
Cole-Menell

How has Addison shown he doesn't have anything left to prove in the AHL? The guy hasn't even played half an AHL season.

It doesn't blow a hole in our top pairing, because we don't have a top pairing. We have two units that play basically equal minutes and get equal results.

We are still left with three defenders capable of top pairing minutes, and 3 options that are likely able to fill in adaquatly in the top 4.

 

[Spurgeon]

-Soucy ~ $2.75m
~Cole resigning for less = $2M in savings
+Menell ~ $1.5M

Boom. There is your cap space and you didn't blow a hole in the top pairing.

Edited my response for the comparison between the two defensive rosters. I just think that 2nd roster is not a significant downgrade from the first one and I think it gives us a lot more flexibility with our forward position.

 

[Bazeek]

Old thread is here

 

[Spurgeon]

Two possible options for the defense based on whether Soucy or Dumba is selected:

Suter - Spurgeon
Brodin - Dumba
Cole (~$2M) - Menell (~$1.25M)

Defense cap hit: $30.4M

Versus

Suter - Spurgeon
Brodin - Menell (~$1.25M)
Soucy - Addison ($800K)

Defense cap hit: $25.9M

My preference is on that 2nd one. I wish we had some more looks at Menell and Addison in the NHL, but eventually there needs to be some chances taken. Our center position needs an upgrade.

 

[GuerinUp]

im just not for breaking up our top 4 right now. Its super risky. could easily give up 30- 40 more goals a season having 2 rookies in the lineup.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Cole will not be paid 4M/yr next year. If i had to guess, it would be under 2, giving the Soucy Cole duo an AAV of 4.5M-4.75M vs. Dumba's 6M. If we replace Cole and Soucy with Menell and Addison, we still have to pay them- probably about 2M for both. So we'd save 2.5-2.75M on the third pairing.

By replacing Dumba with Menell/Addison, we'd save 5M in cap, for a net saving of about 2.5M.

What lineup would you rather have?

Suter Spurgeon
Brodin Dumba
Menell Addison

-two small, offensive RHD rookies, making for 4 RHD
- this lineup cost us 2.5M more

or


Suter Spurgeon
Brodin Menell
Soucy Addison

- saves 2.5M
- balance of size and skill
- balance of LD and RD


Completely as an aside, I am not in favor re-signing Cole, unless it's a really low AAV, and for no more than 2 yrs. He is getting way up there in age.

I choose the one that keeps the top pair intact. It's absolutely hilarious that people think it'll be all fine and dandy to blow up the top pair in favor of our 3rd pairing dmen and minimal cap space. We don't even know if Addison is NHL ready. He's play what, 27 total AHL games? Menell should start on the 3rd pairing and have to work his way up. Cole can be re-signed. There will be a bunch of 3rd pairing dmen available for cheap in free agency.

It doesn't blow a hole in our top pairing, because we don't have a top pairing. We have two units that play basically equal minutes and get equal results.

We are still left with three defenders capable of top pairing minutes, and 3 options that are likely able to fill in adaquatly in the top 4.

It's pretty clear to me when I watch that Brodin-Dumba is better than Suter-Spurgeon and that Suter-Spurgeon will be continuing to decline the next few years. I don't get the absolute fascination that we have to get rid of Dumba to create cap space. I'd rather trade our 1st+Rask for nothing than let Dumba go for free.

 

[MNNumbers]

Just how do you go about deciding which one you lose?

If you go 7-3-1, Seattle could take either, so it's not your choice.

If you go 4-4-1, they may take Greenway or Foligno, which is good for the D corps, but leaves your forward situation even worse.

??? What to do ???

 

[Minnewildsota]

I choose the one that keeps the top pair intact. It's absolutely hilarious that people think it'll be all fine and dandy to blow up the top pair in favor of our 3rd pairing dmen and minimal cap space. We don't even know if Addison is NHL ready. He's play what, 27 total AHL games? Menell should start on the 3rd pairing and have to work his way up. Cole can be re-signed. There will be a bunch of 3rd pairing dmen available for cheap in free agency.


It's pretty clear to me when I watch that Brodin-Dumba is better than Suter-Spurgeon and that Suter-Spurgeon will be continuing to decline the next few years. I don't get the absolute fascination that we have to get rid of Dumba to create cap space. I'd rather trade our 1st+Rask for nothing than let Dumba go for free.

I’d rather have rainbows shoot out of my ass and that’s about as likely as someone trading for Rask.

6 million is not minimal cap space.

 

[Spurgeon]

im just not for breaking up our top 4 right now. Its super risky. could easily give up 30- 40 more goals a season having 2 rookies in the lineup.

I’d be for keeping that 1st roster on two conditions:

1. Parise is bought out
2. The salary cap is going to increase substantially by the 22-23 season

I’m sure all of the GMs have a decent internal estimate for the 2nd condition, but it is a risky move with a lot of uncertainty. I know you’re okay with a Parise buyout, but some people don’t seem to see the benefit in it. I personally don’t see Parise ever going on LTIR because of his compete level, so I’m in favor of the immediate cap relief and protection slots from a buyout.

If Seattle has their eyes set on either Dumba or Soucy. You get Parise’s ED slot opened up and you can negotiate with Seattle to take Rask if they want one of them exposed. Obviously you’re taking a risk in this scenario of them just taking Greenway.

 

[Spurgeon]

I choose the one that keeps the top pair intact. It's absolutely hilarious that people think it'll be all fine and dandy to blow up the top pair in favor of our 3rd pairing dmen and minimal cap space. We don't even know if Addison is NHL ready. He's play what, 27 total AHL games? Menell should start on the 3rd pairing and have to work his way up. Cole can be re-signed. There will be a bunch of 3rd pairing dmen available for cheap in free agency.


It's pretty clear to me when I watch that Brodin-Dumba is better than Suter-Spurgeon and that Suter-Spurgeon will be continuing to decline the next few years. I don't get the absolute fascination that we have to get rid of Dumba to create cap space. I'd rather trade our 1st+Rask for nothing than let Dumba go for free.

We have two solid LDs that Menell and Addison can play with. Hell, if we’re concerned about their rookie defensive abilities, you give them the Brodin treatment and play them with top pairing defensive LDs.

Suter - Menell
Brodin - Addison
Soucy - Spurgeon

The benefit of this roster is that we have 3 RDs and 3 LDs that are a combination of two-way, defensive, and offensive defensemen. There’s a ton of flexibility in who we can play where and what type of minutes they’re getting.

I just feel like keeping Dumba on this roster is going to severely restrict the forward upgrades we can make. I ran the roster on Capfriendly and even with a Rask buyout, it’d be almost impossible to upgrade the center spot. We’d need to buyout Parise.

 

[Bazeek]

I choose the one that keeps the top pair intact. It's absolutely hilarious that people think it'll be all fine and dandy to blow up the top pair in favor of our 3rd pairing dmen and minimal cap space. We don't even know if Addison is NHL ready. He's play what, 27 total AHL games? Menell should start on the 3rd pairing and have to work his way up. Cole can be re-signed. There will be a bunch of 3rd pairing dmen available for cheap in free agency.


It's pretty clear to me when I watch that Brodin-Dumba is better than Suter-Spurgeon and that Suter-Spurgeon will be continuing to decline the next few years. I don't get the absolute fascination that we have to get rid of Dumba to create cap space. I'd rather trade our 1st+Rask for nothing than let Dumba go for free.

At this point the decision to move on from Dumba has effectively been made, it's just a question of the best exit strategy.

 

[nickschultzfan]

If Guerin thinks Kap, Fiala, and JEE are going to take $20m or more to sign, it is almost certain that he is going to expose Dumba so Seattle can take him.

We can squeeze in to next season with adding low cost guys like Boldy, Addison, and Rossi, elevating Sturm, and buying out Rask, but the Wild are out of cap in the 22/23 season when Greenway and Sturm will need new contracts (and no contracts will be coming off the books). They would be entirely relying on the cap going up to retain both of those guys.

 

[GuerinUp]

I’d be for keeping that 1st roster on two conditions:

1. Parise is bought out
2. The salary cap is going to increase substantially by the 22-23 season

I’m sure all of the GMs have a decent internal estimate for the 2nd condition, but it is a risky move with a lot of uncertainty. I know you’re okay with a Parise buyout, but some people don’t seem to see the benefit in it. I personally don’t see Parise ever going on LTIR because of his compete level, so I’m in favor of the immediate cap relief and protection slots from a buyout.

If Seattle has their eyes set on either Dumba or Soucy. You get Parise’s ED slot opened up and you can negotiate with Seattle to take Rask if they want one of them exposed. Obviously you’re taking a risk in this scenario of them just taking Greenway.

ya i dont see him going on ltir either, and i honestly feel like we can stay competitive still by losing greenway. where as losing dumba is going to be a HUGE risk in terms of dominos falling. with suter and spurgeon on the decline, its just a matter of time before it starts effecting goaltending, which then begins the downward spiral. I could be wrong in all this, i just have this feeling in my gut that keeping the top 4 d together is the best move

 

[ThatGuy22]

I choose the one that keeps the top pair intact. It's absolutely hilarious that people think it'll be all fine and dandy to blow up the top pair in favor of our 3rd pairing dmen and minimal cap space. We don't even know if Addison is NHL ready. He's play what, 27 total AHL games? Menell should start on the 3rd pairing and have to work his way up. Cole can be re-signed. There will be a bunch of 3rd pairing dmen available for cheap in free agency.


It's pretty clear to me when I watch that Brodin-Dumba is better than Suter-Spurgeon and that Suter-Spurgeon will be continuing to decline the next few years. I don't get the absolute fascination that we have to get rid of Dumba to create cap space. I'd rather trade our 1st+Rask for nothing than let Dumba go for free.

Your eye test is your eye test. I don't personally notice a big difference in the pairings, and the stats tend to back that up.

Even if I hypothetically concede that they are better pairing, it's a marginal difference. And hardly blows a hole in it, because we can run Brodin and Spurgeon(who in their limited minutes have better numbers than Brodin and Dumba).

It's also a straw man to say people want to get rid of Dumba for the cap space. People are analyzing a multi factor situation and coming to the conclusion that Dumba exposed might be our best of bad options. We're gonna lose a good player. Dumba just happens to not have protection, and plays the position we are solid at both in the NHl currently and in the system. The cap space produced is a +, but no one is suggesting trading him for future considerations just for cap space.

It's a reasonable argument.

 

[thestonedkoala]

im just not for breaking up our top 4 right now. Its super risky. could easily give up 30- 40 more goals a season having 2 rookies in the lineup.

I'm not breaking up the GEEKF line, because they are one of the best - if not the best defensive forward group in the NHL.

 

[Spurgeon]

I'm not breaking up the GEEKF line, because they are one of the best - if not the best defensive forward group in the NHL.

This is the biggest downside to losing Greenway. I have yet to see any of Greenway, Ek, or Foligno play anywhere near the same level of game individually compared to when all 3 of those guys are together (I will admit that Greenway has been the weakest link though). Their ability to shut down other teams lines make them as valuable as a Top 6 line, without costing anywhere near it. Our group of wingers and centers need a line like that to take the harder assignments.

Brodin, on the other hand, is a defenseman that I don’t see struggling nearly as much with another offensive RHD replacing Dumba. We have the defensive depth to adjust the pairings accordingly to whatever works best.

 

[MNNumbers]

I’d be for keeping that 1st roster on two conditions:

1. Parise is bought out
2. The salary cap is going to increase substantially by the 22-23 season

I’m sure all of the GMs have a decent internal estimate for the 2nd condition, but it is a risky move with a lot of uncertainty. I know you’re okay with a Parise buyout, but some people don’t seem to see the benefit in it. I personally don’t see Parise ever going on LTIR because of his compete level, so I’m in favor of the immediate cap relief and protection slots from a buyout.

If Seattle has their eyes set on either Dumba or Soucy. You get Parise’s ED slot opened up and you can negotiate with Seattle to take Rask if they want one of them exposed. Obviously you’re taking a risk in this scenario of them just taking Greenway.

I would be very doubtful about a significant salary cap increase. The players owe the owners a lot for last year and this year (50% of HRR, but they made a deal so the players could still get this year's nominal salaries - it's a limit to escrow, and it has to be paid back before the salary cap reverts to its prior form. That's going to take a few years.). Plus the actual increase in media rights from one year to the next is about 250M or so (max). Half of that goes to salaries, so you are talking about maybe 4M or so per team of salary cap room, and with this, I am counting on only 250K/team increments over the next 6 years. So, it's a one time bump.

 

[MNNumbers]

Can someone explain to me the advantage of buying out Parise?

From here: Zach Parise Contract Buyout Details - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

You gain a lot of cap room in 21-22 (nice), but lose back 4M of it for 22-23 (when you really need cap space) and lose back another 1M for the next 2 years.

I know that we fear what he looks like in 23-24 and 24-25, but 7.4M of dead cap space doing nothing seems like something I don't like.

So, what's the advantage?

LTIR, I get that. The details of how to manage that kind of thing are treacherous, but that would be much better for a couple of years at the end, I think.

 

[Digitalbooya]

At this point the decision to move on from Dumba has effectively been made, it's just a question of the best exit strategy.

I guess this is what happens when you give a 31 year old a 7 year extension for $7.58m per year with a NMC smdh... And people wonder why we are perpetually mediocre. Can't shed the old bodies so you gotta shed the actually important young players.

Your eye test is your eye test. I don't personally notice a big difference in the pairings, and the stats tend to back that up.

Even if I hypothetically concede that they are better pairing, it's a marginal difference. And hardly blows a hole in it, because we can run Brodin and Spurgeon(who in their limited minutes have better numbers than Brodin and Dumba).

It's also a straw man to say people want to get rid of Dumba for the cap space. People are analyzing a multi factor situation and coming to the conclusion that Dumba exposed might be our best of bad options. We're gonna lose a good player. Dumba just happens to not have protection, and plays the position we are solid at both in the NHl currently and in the system. The cap space produced is a +, but no one is suggesting trading him for future considerations just for cap space.

It's a reasonable argument.

That is exactly what people are suggesting with just giving him away for free in expansion.

All I'm saying is figure out another way. If you gotta buyout Rask then so be it. If you have to sign Kaprizov to a 5 year deal instead of an 8 year deal to save cap then so be it. You do not let Dumba go for free. I cannot stress how monumentally horrible asset management that would be.

 

[Bazeek]

I guess this is what happens when you give a 31 year old a 7 year extension for $7.58m per year with a NMC smdh... And people wonder why we are perpetually mediocre. Can't shed the old bodies so you gotta shed the actually important young players.

I'm not sure it's damned us to perpetual mediocrity, but that was definitely the trade off with Spurgeon's extension.

 

[Spurgeon]

Can someone explain to me the advantage of buying out Parise?

From here: Zach Parise Contract Buyout Details - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

You gain a lot of cap room in 21-22 (nice), but lose back 4M of it for 22-23 (when you really need cap space) and lose back another 1M for the next 2 years.

I know that we fear what he looks like in 23-24 and 24-25, but 7.4M of dead cap space doing nothing seems like something I don't like.

So, what's the advantage?

LTIR, I get that. The details of how to manage that kind of thing are treacherous, but that would be much better for a couple of years at the end, I think.

Advantage is in the cap space for those two years, when we have a lot of extensions due. If the cap space is going to remain flat throughout the entirety of the buyout, there's not much of an advantage to it. However, if it goes up after the 2nd or 3rd years, then there is some benefit to it. The level of play that Parise is going to bring when he's 39/40 is unlikely to be better than a guy we can bring in on an ELC. So there's really not much additional cap being added on top of Parise's contract.

Doing this also gives the Wild an additional protection slot in this upcoming ED, which could come in handy in negotiations with Seattle.

I guess this is what happens when you give a 31 year old a 7 year extension for $7.58m per year with a NMC smdh... And people wonder why we are perpetually mediocre. Can't shed the old bodies so you gotta shed the actually important young players.

There is no guarantee that Dumba re-signs for cheaper or at all in 2 years. Spurgeon's been a mainstay on this defense and this so-called decline of his has not been very apparent in any of his statistics.

That is exactly what people are suggesting with just giving him away for free in expansion.

It's not for free. Someone has to be taken.

 

[Prior]

What is a bigger problem, your top 4 taking up 33% of your cap or your bottom 6 and bottom pair taking up 32%?

Because that’s a pretty damn easy question to answer for those of you concerned about where the top 4 comes in in terms of money.

When you’re resigned to the fact Parise is playing on the 4th line, the 3rd line and third pair can’t be making the money they are set up to make next season. If Foligno, Greenway, and JEE are so important, they need to better than what they are now to account for the cap space they will next year understanding that their role likely will not change.

 

[Spurgeon]

What is a bigger problem, your top 4 taking up 33% of your cap or your bottom 6 and bottom pair taking up 32%?

Because that’s a pretty damn easy question to answer for those of you concerned about where the top 4 comes in in terms of money.

When you’re resigned to the fact Parise is playing on the 4th line, the 3rd line and third pair can’t be making the money they are set up to make next season. If Foligno, Greenway, and JEE are so important, they need to better than what they are now to account for the cap space they will next year understanding that their role likely will not change.

$9-10M is a great deal for one of the best shutdown lines in hockey.