Trade and Free Agency Discussion Thread - Don't Expect More Augmenting

Status
Not open for further replies.

Dekes For Days

Registered User
Sep 24, 2018
20,095
15,266
Columbus had Panarin, Josh Anderson and Brobrovsky when they swept Tampa a year ago. They didn't have these players when we played them. Panarin alone couldve ment a sweep for Columbus over the Leafs.
This is quite the exaggeration. Panarin was a loss, but he wasn't the Panarin of this year, and they got an extra year of development for Jones, Werenski, and Dubois; helping to improve their defensive results to best in the league. Anderson isn't a player that moves the needle, and Columbus got much better goaltending against us than they did against Tampa last year, so the loss of Bobrovsky wasn't felt.
 

Antropovsky

Registered User
Jun 2, 2007
13,984
4,965
This is quite the exaggeration. Panarin was a loss, but he wasn't the Panarin of this year, and they got an extra year of development for Jones, Werenski, and Dubois; helping to improve their defensive results to best in the league. Anderson isn't a player that moves the needle, and Columbus got much better goaltending against us than they did against Tampa last year, so the loss of Bobrovsky wasn't felt.
Haha you got one of those Dyson vacuums going on. Anderson doesn't move the needle... Panarin wasn't the player he is now... yet he got a 11.6 million dollar contract that off-season. Bob wasn't as good as the goaltending the Leafs saw...
 

Dekes For Days

Registered User
Sep 24, 2018
20,095
15,266
Anderson doesn't move the needle... Panarin wasn't the player he is now... yet he got a 11.6 million dollar contract that off-season. Bob wasn't as good as the goaltending the Leafs saw...
Anderson is not that special, and had a whole 3 points in 10 games that playoffs... There are more changes than him if we are discussing depth players like him. Starting goaltending and a player like Panarin are impactful losses, but regardless of your opinion of Bobrovsky, it's just a fact that Columbus got better goaltending this year in the playoffs, which helped offset the loss of Panarin (who had been amazing, and got a big UFA contract as a result, but was not a Hart contender like he was this year).
 

stickty111

Registered User
Jan 23, 2017
26,557
32,810
The biggest reason Jackets won because they got better goaltending. You could argue that was the only reason. Freddy gave up bad goals at terrible times, while the Jackets didn't. If you do that series over 10 times, with the same stats, Leafs win 9 out of 10.
 

Gabriel426

Registered User
Jun 30, 2015
16,521
10,128
The biggest reason Jackets won because they got better goaltending. You could argue that was the only reason. Freddy gave up bad goals at terrible times, while the Jackets didn't. If you do that series over 10 times, with the same stats, Leafs win 9 out of 10.
Or the Leafs just couldn’t score or create great chances. The old debate of who comes first, Chicken or the Egg.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Buds17

SeaOfBlue

The Passion That Unites Us All
Aug 1, 2013
35,591
16,773
Or the Leafs just couldn’t score or create great chances. The old debate of who comes first, Chicken or the Egg.

Creating great chances was not the problem. We did that better than Columbus at the very least. Scoring was another issue. A lot of that had to do with Korpisalo making some excellent saves. Some of it just has to do with rotten luck or not being able to convert, but given the Leafs have one of the league's most potent offenses, they don't need to worry about a 5 game stretch where the puck simply would not go in. It is simply not a sustainable issue, and it should not be one that they concern themselves with unless it becomes an issue over a longer stretch.

Even if they just emulated their driest 5 game stretch of the regular season, where they had something like a 4% SH% at ES (which is really bad in itself), they would have won that series.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Dekes For Days

Fogelhund

Registered User
Sep 15, 2007
21,054
23,159
In the two shutouts, the Leafs gave up two empty net goals, and three other goals. If we can't score over 1.5 goals per game, nothing else matters. Call it a hot goalie, call it good defense, call it not playing hard enough, call it couldn't score... doesn't matter. We didn't score enough, end of day, for whatever reason.
 

SeaOfBlue

The Passion That Unites Us All
Aug 1, 2013
35,591
16,773
In the two shutouts, the Leafs gave up two empty net goals, and three other goals. If we can't score over 1.5 goals per game, nothing else matters. Call it a hot goalie, call it good defense, call it not playing hard enough, call it couldn't score... doesn't matter. We didn't score enough, end of day, for whatever reason.

It is important to know why though.

If we have a lineup which is incapable of scoring, that is a lot more concerning than if you just run into a hot goalie.

It could just be an outlier that happened at the worst possible time, or it could be a deeper underlying problem. Sample size says that it is more likely the former, but you still need to figure it out.
 

Fogelhund

Registered User
Sep 15, 2007
21,054
23,159


Year 1, 2.4
Year 2, 4.8
Year 3, 7.2

1.5 million in Signing Bonus in each of first two seasons

Going to be one heck of a QO required at the end of this though.

If someone offer sheets Cirelli at $6.544 now, Tampa can't match, until they move out salary, so it would put them under the gun, to make a deal within seven days. It would be kind of entertaining to see what could happen, nothing against Tampa, it just would make for interesting business.
 
Last edited:

Buds17

Registered User
Nov 29, 2015
8,221
3,343
IIRC, total goals favoured CBJ 12-10. Subtracting EN goals resulted in a 10-9 CBJ advantage. No goals for could not have led to a positive outcome in either of the shutout losses. Conversely, Andersen allowing four goals in the OT loss felt like too much for the team to overcome. Being level with the playoff opponent in the standings for the first time over the past four series is likely part of what made that particular loss tougher to handle in comparison to the others.
 
Last edited:

Antropovsky

Registered User
Jun 2, 2007
13,984
4,965
Anderson is not that special, and had a whole 3 points in 10 games that playoffs... There are more changes than him if we are discussing depth players like him. Starting goaltending and a player like Panarin are impactful losses, but regardless of your opinion of Bobrovsky, it's just a fact that Columbus got better goaltending this year in the playoffs, which helped offset the loss of Panarin (who had been amazing, and got a big UFA contract as a result, but was not a Hart contender like he was this year).
So players have to produce a point per game in the playoffs for them to be effective is what your saying? Could have replaced Josh Anderson with Par Lindholm and received same results? To be clear, you're saying in the playoffs players effectiveness and value is based entirely on stats?
 

ottomaddox

Registered User
Oct 31, 2017
10,592
4,600
Toronto
The biggest reason Jackets won because they got better goaltending. You could argue that was the only reason. Freddy gave up bad goals at terrible times, while the Jackets didn't. If you do that series over 10 times, with the same stats, Leafs win 9 out of 10.

If Keefe decides to load up a line with M.M./A.M./ J.T. for three periods, play Nylander at 2nd line C, Columbus wins 10 out of 10.
 

Gabriel426

Registered User
Jun 30, 2015
16,521
10,128
It is important to know why though.

If we have a lineup which is incapable of scoring, that is a lot more concerning than if you just run into a hot goalie.

It could just be an outlier that happened at the worst possible time, or it could be a deeper underlying problem. Sample size says that it is more likely the former, but you still need to figure it out.
Agree with what you said and I do hope it was just a bad 5 games series.
But if you look deeper in the series, if you take away the three 6 Vs 5 goals in the last 4mins or so in Game 4 and the EN in game 2, the Leafs scored 6 goals. That’s not good at all.
I think even the MGT know they need better offensive players or else instead of signing Jumbo, Simmonds and Vesey, they would signed vets who is known for their D game.
Personally, the team is growing and the so-called core are entering their prime but the team is far from given a pass of having a bad 5 games series. They just have not done anything to warrant that.
 

Antropovsky

Registered User
Jun 2, 2007
13,984
4,965
No, that's not what I said. But there's no reason to point out Anderson above other changes. He's not a notable player.
25 year old- 27 goal, 47 point 6'3 225lb powerforward is not a notable player? Please elaborate .... I wanna hear more.
 

Dekes For Days

Registered User
Sep 24, 2018
20,095
15,266
25 year old- 27 goal, 47 point 6'3 225lb powerforward is not a notable player?
That's a pretty rosy description of what Anderson's actually shown to be. I know it's all the rage around here, but somebody being big and heavy doesn't instantly make them an impact forward. If somebody like Anderson counts as a notable player in terms of having a significant individual influence on the outcome of a series, then you missed a lot of changes between the years.
 

SeaOfBlue

The Passion That Unites Us All
Aug 1, 2013
35,591
16,773
Agree with what you said and I do hope it was just a bad 5 games series.
But if you look deeper in the series, if you take away the three 6 Vs 5 goals in the last 4mins or so in Game 4 and the EN in game 2, the Leafs scored 6 goals. That’s not good at all.
I think even the MGT know they need better offensive players or else instead of signing Jumbo, Simmonds and Vesey, they would signed vets who is known for their D game.
Personally, the team is growing and the so-called core are entering their prime but the team is far from given a pass of having a bad 5 games series. They just have not done anything to warrant that.

I would not call it a bad 5 games series and I would not say it is giving them a pass either. I would just not call it an utter failure. They've had two straight series where they outplayed the other team, and one of those teams was one way away from a Cup. Maybe don't pretend like they've won a Cup or anything (and I don't think that is happening right now), but this is not a huge identity crisis situation either.

What you want to see is that your teams are putting themselves in situations where they should be winning series, and the Leafs are doing that. There are always ways to improve, and Dubas/Keefe/the Leafs should be focusing on that more than the results of the series. Ultimately if we continue to do what we are doing, with some incremental improvements, then we can go places quite fast... especially if Andersen and Marner perform to expectations in the playoffs for once.
 

Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
40,975
32,364
St. Paul, MN
That Tampa cal situation seems pretty ugly.

They basically need to lose two players; wonder if they'll dump one of the remaining rfas for futures and pay someone to take Johnson
 

LeafsOHLRangers98

Registered User
Jun 13, 2017
6,572
6,718
25 year old- 27 goal, 47 point 6'3 225lb powerforward is not a notable player? Please elaborate .... I wanna hear more.
Sure if he can replicate that. He had just 1 goal and 4 points last year, and the rest of his career so far outside of that career year has been played at a 17 goal, 30 point pace.

It is far more likely that that 27 goal season is the outlier than the norm at this point.
 

Gabriel426

Registered User
Jun 30, 2015
16,521
10,128
I would not call it a bad 5 games series and I would not say it is giving them a pass either. I would just not call it an utter failure. They've had two straight series where they outplayed the other team, and one of those teams was one way away from a Cup. Maybe don't pretend like they've won a Cup or anything (and I don't think that is happening right now), but this is not a huge identity crisis situation either.

What you want to see is that your teams are putting themselves in situations where they should be winning series, and the Leafs are doing that. There are always ways to improve, and Dubas/Keefe/the Leafs should be focusing on that more than the results of the series. Ultimately if we continue to do what we are doing, with some incremental improvements, then we can go places quite fast... especially if Andersen and Marner perform to expectations in the playoffs for once.
I don’t think it is an identity crisis or rebuild. To me last year team lack depth both in forwards and in defence. I think there is a better balance now, with the core entering their prime, and less injuries, the team should be more consistent and better than last year.
 

hamzarocks

Registered User
Jul 22, 2012
20,122
13,064
Pickering, Ontario
That Tampa cal situation seems pretty ugly.

They basically need to lose two players; wonder if they'll dump one of the remaining rfas for futures and pay someone to take Johnson
Have a feeling Stamkos opts out for the season due to covid. Tampa won a cup without him(though a lot went right) and they can probably try to go again if they bring back most of the cup winning team.

Is there a rule that a player who sits out due to Covid has to sit out the whole year? Like could the bolts pull a move where Stamkos sits out until like a week before the season at which point if the distriubtion of the vaccines have curbed the virus, he comes back onto the team ready to play?

If allowed they could pull something like the hawks did with kane in 2015 when he was on IR(or LTIR) and they got to add capspace to take on vermette with the playoffs having no salary cap. Could fit there entire team, add a mostly paid out addition at Trade deadline then activate Stamkos before the playoffs.

Doubt the league allows it to happen(stamkos would be enforced I'm guessing to sit out whole year) but if they did it would give Tampa a very very good chance of repeating
 

Antropovsky

Registered User
Jun 2, 2007
13,984
4,965
That's a pretty rosy description of what Anderson's actually shown to be. I know it's all the rage around here, but somebody being big and heavy doesn't instantly make them an impact forward. If somebody like Anderson counts as a notable player in terms of having a significant individual influence on the outcome of a series, then you missed a lot of changes between the years.

"Shown to be".... we are not talking about Josh Anderson's career... we were comparing the year Columbus swept Tampa to the Columbus the Leafs just played.. the season we are discussing is the season he put up 27 goals and 47 points. Is 27 goals and 47 points and a + 25....what you describe as a non-impact player? Or did a non impact player accidentally have an impact season in your eyes?

Columbus offered Anderson 7 years at 5 million.... that's a lot of money for a non-impact player dont you think? Columbus had him for 8 years, my guess is they have a pretty good idea of what they get from him, when offering him that contract. Also Columbus fans seem to think he was a pretty effective player too.... from reading their posts. They don't seem to think he is incapable of living up to his new contract either.

... im curious will you post on the Columbus board your opinion that Josh Anderson was a non impact player two seasons ago?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->