I posted this in the GDT, but it fits much better here:
I can't be counted among the "lose and the season is over" crowd. It is certainly a big step in that direction, but I think the fate of the season comes down to our next 8 games. We have an easy schedule in that stretch, playing 5 teams who are also out of the playoff picture and are .500 or worse (Detroit, Vancouver, Edmonton, Florida and Arizona). There is only 1 back to back in that stretch (at Arizona after playing in Colorado) and half the games are at home. Additionally, we play Colorado twice, who we very well might be chasing if we can get our act together. I think going at least 1-1 against them is more important than whatever happens tonight. I get the emotional reaction of "well if you can't beat Detroit, you're going to get throttled by the Avs on Friday." However, this team is nothing if not inconsistent. The last 3 games demonstrated that we can take it to a very good Nashville team one night while looking lost against that same team or an also-very-good Jets team all in a span of a few days.
Long story short, the next 8 games will tell me everything I need to know. Anything less than 10 points and the season is over. Getting 9 points out of the next 8 games puts us at 28 points in 30 games played, which means we would need to play at a 105.6 point pace over the last 52 games in order to reach 95 points (which isn't a guarantee to make the playoffs, but is generally a number that gets you there). I don't think this team will be capable of a 105 point pace through 52 games if we can't manage going 5-3 or 4-1-2 over this "light" stretch after Berube has had a few practices to start instituting what he wants to see. I'll be watching the season with an eye towards next year at that point. I'd be exploring a big trade that sends a "core" player out for a big futures package as well as smaller trades to clear money. Roll the youth without playoff expectations, keep our top 10 pick this year, and focus on hitting the ground running in 2019/20.
10 or 11 points keeps us alive but still on really thin ice. That would require a 104 or 102.5 point pace over the remaining 52. I wouldn't expect that kind of pace from this team, but it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility. We's need a big hot streak at some point, but gives us a chance. Plus, it means that we went 5-3 or 5-2-1, which should build some confidence in the room. I wouldn't feel incredibly optimistic, but I would still be rooting against a tank and rooting for this season. That opinion might change in the 5-10 games after that, but would delay a fire sale IMO.
12+ points puts us back in business. That means we go 6-2 or 5-1-2, which would be a nice little streak. That would put us at 31 points through 30 games and would need to play at a 101 point pace in order to reach 95 points. I think this roster is capable of that pace and that type of 8 game stretch should have the team buying into whatever changes Berube makes. Dallas is currently on pace to have 32.5 points through 30 games. Being only a point and a half back of the pace for a 2nd Wild Card spot isn't too bad of a hole in mid-December.
Losing tonight makes it exceedingly difficult to hit 12 points and pretty darn tough to hit 10. But I'm not pulling the parachute unless/until we fail to get 10 points out of this 8 game stretch (which could theoretically happen has soon as 12/5/18 against Hitch).
TL;DR: Tonight isn't do or die, but the next 8 games are. Here are my thoughts about what our plan should be based on our performance in the next 8 games:
1-9 points earned: pack it in for this year and focus on 2018/19. Make a big trade of a core player for a nice futures package. Make a couple other smaller trades for assets that help us in 2019 and beyond, regardless of how it helps us this season. Open up roster spots for young guys to get NHL time without playoff expectations and see what you have in Binny/Husso at the NHL level.
10-11 points earned: Still technically alive, but on thin ice. Tread water another few weeks and reassess. Odds are any major trade on the table in early December will still be there 2-3 weeks later. I don't think teams looking to pry Tarasenko, Parayko, Petro, Schwartz, or Schenn from us will suddenly not be interested 3 weeks later.
12+ points: Back in business. Still an uphill battle, but totally doable. Don't sell the farm, but either stand pat or make minor moves to help save this season (realistically, the only move I'd want to see is if we can cheaply acquire an upgrade in net).
