Tracking the Blues’ Stanley Cup Quest: 2020 version [aka "Repeat the Feat"] (LOL) (3/12 - On hold)

[Ted Hoffman]

Games Remaining: 23
Current Points: 74
Current Position: 1st in Central [tied with Dallas on points, leading on regulation wins 25-23]
Home Games Remaining: 12 [current record at home: 18-6-5]
Road Games Remaining: 11 [current record on road: 14-11-5]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 92
Sample Record that would get us to target: 9-14-0

Next 7 Games [through the end of February]:
2/18 - vs. New Jersey
2/20 - vs. Phoenix
2/21 - at Dallas
2/23 - at Minnesota
2/25 - vs. Chicago
2/27 - vs. NY Islanders
2/29 - vs. Dallas

Welp, a comfortable lead has frittered away and we're tenuously on top of the Central with Colorado lurking 2 points back with 2 games in hand - and on a tie in points, they'd pull ahead with 30 regulation wins. The gap from 1st to 9th is a mere 9 points, and really on point percentage Nashville would be ahead of Arizona.

Only three teams are clearly out: Los Angeles, Anaheim and San Jose. Everyone else has at least some kind of a shot at the playoffs.

Nashville swept us. We're in a total funk. Shit happens. Quit feeling sorry for ourselves, no one else gives a f*** about us. Time to get our shit together.

Click to read more...

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I am so happy this thread has returned.

Hopefully we end up with the same result

 

[TK 421]

Thanks for bringing this back, I never get tired of that pregame G7 speech from Berube.

This past summer when I was in Michigan on vacation I enjoyed reciting that speech for my Red Wings fan family members. They got tired of it, I didn't lol because "..we're a f***ing good hockey team".

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

It's jarring that I'm looking at that 9-14-0 record and wondering if we can feasibly get there.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Games Remaining: 22
Current Points: 76
Current Position: 1st in Central [2 points ahead of Dallas, 3 ahead of Colorado who has 2 games in hand. On a tie in points, we lead Dallas in regulation wins 25-23.]
Home Games Remaining: 11 [current record at home: 19-6-5]
Road Games Remaining: 11 [current record on road: 14-11-5]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 92
Sample Record that would get us to target: 8-14-0

Next 6 Games [through the end of February]:
2/20 - vs. Arizona
2/21 - at Dallas
2/23 - at Minnesota
2/25 - vs. Chicago
2/27 - vs. NY Islanders
2/29 - vs. Dallas

Technically, on point% Colorado was leading the Central coming into tonight at .629 to .627. Also, the gap from 1st to 8th coming into tonight was 6 points. Fortunately, we've rectified the first and stretched out the second a little.

Colorado did us a favor by losing at home to Tampa Bay last night. The Avs losing Ratanen for a while (likely until the end of the season) helps us as well. Winnipeg wins, Nashville loses.

We want both points against Arizona on Thursday, not the "we forgot to show up against the Coyotes and they blitz the f*** out of us" bullshit we've done against them way too often. We really need a regulation win on Friday night; that would give us 2 points separation and extra padding on the 1st tiebreak. OWOW after that would be great [with good results this week, it would push us to only needing 3-13-0 to practically clinch], but right now let's just start with having tonight's game be the start of what helps right the ship.

 

[TheGoldenGod]

I ****ing love that speech

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Off-day update.

Games Remaining: 22
Current Points: 76
Current Position: 1st in Central [tied with Dallas but leading in regulation wins 25-23; 1 point ahead of Colorado who has 1 game in hand]
Home Games Remaining: 11 [current record at home: 19-6-5]
Road Games Remaining: 11 [current record on road: 14-11-5]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 92
Sample Record that would get us to target: 8-14-0

Next 6 Games [through the end of February]:
2/20 - vs. Arizona
2/21 - at Dallas
2/23 - at Minnesota
2/25 - vs. Chicago
2/27 - vs. NY Islanders
2/29 - vs. Dallas

Both teams trailing us won last night, so no breathing room in the race for the top of the division. Colorado is technically in 1st on point%, .636 to .633 and it sounds like Rantanen may only be out a couple weeks. [Still officially upper-body.]

We have Arizona, Winnipeg is at Ottawa. Assuming the Jets win, they would officially move into the 8th in both points and point% pending our game. Let's put the Coyotes away and regain that 2-point lead and keep growing that positive momentum.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Games Remaining: 21
Current Points: 78
Current Position: 1st in Central [2 points ahead of Dallas, who has a game in hand; 3 points ahead of Colorado who has 2 games in hand]
Home Games Remaining: 10 [current record at home: 20-6-5]
Road Games Remaining: 11 [current record on road: 14-11-5]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 92
Sample Record that would get us to target: 7-14-0

Next 6 Games [through the end of February]:
2/21 - at Dallas
2/23 - at Minnesota
2/25 - vs. Chicago
2/27 - vs. NY Islanders
2/29 - vs. Dallas

We scratch out yet another 1-0 win while outshooting the crap out of the opposition, but it doesn't matter: a win is a win. Winnipeg wins over Ottawa, so the Jets get into the 2WC spot and push the Coyotes out.

Tomorrow night is a 4-point game. A win would be huge; a win in regulation would be massive. A loss wouldn't be a killer, but it adds pressure to next Saturday night's game. Let's try keep making it easy for ourselves.

 

[brokeu91]

Can we put an LOL in the title? I mean it worked for us last year

 

[Meatball]

We need 16 wins again. AGAIN.

YOU KNOW, BECAUSE THERE WAS A FIRST TIME!



My body is ready.

 

[Ranksu]

Can we put an LOL in the title? I mean it worked for us last year

Can we yet again play Gloria after we win game at home?

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Can we yet again play Gloria after we win game at home?

I'm fine if we sing it a capella after every home victory if that's what will get it to work again. I don't care if we all have to dress up as Laura Branigan during the playoffs if that's what will get it to work again, full makeup and all the hair spray. Hell, I don't care if the only way we can win another Cup is to play "Chelsea Dagger" backwards after any Chicago goal at home.

Of course, if none of those work, I think the next logical move is to have Pietrangelo's wife have triplets again.

However, I'll be on vacation June 12-21 so if they're going to win this year it needs to be a sweep so I can make it back down for a parade before I take off for 10 days.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Games Remaining: 19
Current Points: 82
Current Position: 1st in Central [3 points ahead of Colorado, who has 2 games in hand; 4 points ahead of Dallas]
Home Games Remaining: 10 [current record at home: 20-6-5]
Road Games Remaining: 11 [current record on road: 16-11-5]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 92
Sample Record that would get us to target: 5-14-0

Next 5 Games [through the end of February]:
2/25 - vs. Chicago
2/27 - vs. NY Islanders
2/29 - vs. Dallas
3/3 - at NY Rangers
3/6 - at New Jersey

I'm tempted to move the "to get a Playoff Spot" mark down to 91, but let's leave it where it is for now; we're getting close to making it moot, and I'm not worried unless we get to 6 games or so to go and we're still not in. (At which point, we're probably just laying out all the different scenarios for what can happen.)

Great weekend for us. We get 2 points at Dallas in regulation, grab another 2 tonight, open up a little room and make everyone behind us have to keep winning. Would have been nice if Colorado had done its part, but we'll all take what we got. I'm looking for 3-1-1 in this stretch (preferably WLWOW), which would get us to on the verge of clinching. That would gut the Blackhawks' playoff chances a little more and give us more breathing room on Dallas. Looking down the road, we've got a better schedule than Colorado but our last two games are vs. Boston, at Colorado. Let's not make those games have to mean a lot.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

We need 16 wins again. AGAIN.

YOU KNOW, BECAUSE THERE WAS A FIRST TIME!



My body is ready.

I feel like they should clinch post-season play before these kinds of posts are made. We’ll have plenty of time to do it...but why tempt fate now?

 

[Ranksu]

In this thread everytime @Mud the ACAS post stats should get automatically 'like' from everyone!!!

 

[Meatball]

I feel like they should clinch post-season play before these kinds of posts are made. We’ll have plenty of time to do it...but why tempt fate now?

Reckless optimism.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Games Remaining: 18
Current Points: 84
Current Position: 1st in Central [4 points ahead of Dallas; 5 points ahead of Colorado, who has 3 games in hand]
Home Games Remaining: 9 [current record at home: 21-6-5]
Road Games Remaining: 9 [current record on road: 16-11-5]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 92
Sample Record that would get us to target: 4-14-0

Next 5 Games:
2/27 - vs. NY Islanders
2/29 - vs. Dallas
3/3 - at NY Rangers
3/6 - at New Jersey
3/8 - at Chicago

This wasn't looking good for a little while. Dallas won, Nashville won, ... fortunately, the good guys dug deep and pulled this one out. Calgary also wins, so we have a semi-clear top-8 now in the West as the gap has widened to 14 points.

We could unofficially clinch a spot as early as the New Jersey game. I suspect we'll do it around the 9th (home vs. Florida) or 11th (at Anaheim, aka "Bouwmeester Make Up Game (win it for Silent Jay)"), and we'll officially clinch around the 15th at home vs. Ottawa.

 

[MissouriMook]

We've got 14 games in March and the schedule is really soft. If we can go 10-3-1 in March (which is certainly doable if we get back to playing D like we had for the last four games before last night) and go 2-2 for the four remaining games in February and April, that would leave us with 109 points. I am pretty confident that 109 points would lock up top seed in the West.

I really hope that there isn't a comfort level in this team once we clinch a spot. I think the biggest reason we went all the way last season was that we put the foot to the floor in January and never let up. This team shouldn't be satisfied with getting in and waiting until April to get back to their game. If they've got it in them, and if everyone is stays healthy, they should be banking as many points as they possibly can right through the end of March and into the final two games against Boston and Colorado in April. Home ice advantage for the first three rounds will be huge, and the more points you bank the better your odds that your SCF matchup is against a team with fewer points than you and you can get home ice advantage there. From JAN-JUN last season, I didn't see that as a big deal but they have been far better at home this season than on the road. Maybe that changes in the playoffs, but I don't want to see them take that chance.

 

[Stealth JD]

We've got 14 games in March and the schedule is really soft. If we can go 10-3-1 in March (which is certainly doable if we get back to playing D like we had for the last four games before last night) and go 2-2 for the four remaining games in February and April, that would leave us with 109 points. I am pretty confident that 109 points would lock up top seed in the West.

I really hope that there isn't a comfort level in this team once we clinch a spot. I think the biggest reason we went all the way last season was that we put the foot to the floor in January and never let up. This team shouldn't be satisfied with getting in and waiting until April to get back to their game. If they've got it in them, and if everyone is stays healthy, they should be banking as many points as they possibly can right through the end of March and into the final two games against Boston and Colorado in April. Home ice advantage for the first three rounds will be huge, and the more points you bank the better your odds that your SCF matchup is against a team with fewer points than you and you can get home ice advantage there. From JAN-JUN last season, I didn't see that as a big deal but they have been far better at home this season than on the road. Maybe that changes in the playoffs, but I don't want to see them take that chance.

have you seen the Avs schedule the rest of the way? if you think the Blues have an easy schedule, check out Colorado's. They may not lose more than a couple games the rest of the way.

 

[MissouriMook]

have you seen the Avs schedule the rest of the way? if you think the Blues have an easy schedule, check out Colorado's. They may not lose more than a couple games the rest of the way.

Maybe, but last night's game aside I trust our goaltending a lot more than Francouz and Hutchinson and who knows when Grubby will be back.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I think it’s more likely Colorado gets the top seed than St Louis, but we’ll see.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

have you seen the Avs schedule the rest of the way? if you think the Blues have an easy schedule, check out Colorado's. They may not lose more than a couple games the rest of the way.

Colorado has some really easy games. (@DET, ANH, @sj, @LA, @ANH, MTL) They also have some not-so-easy games. (@Van, VAN, VEG, @NSH, @EDM, @WPG, NSH, WPG, STL) Comparing the two, I like our schedule better though we have @Wsh, BOS, @COL in the last 6 games.

The big thing is this, though: as long as we're winning, Colorado has to keep winning to stay on pace to finish ahead of us. Games in hand only matter if you take advantage of them. Keep forcing them into that position, make them work to take the seed ahead of us; don't lose games and make it easier.

 

[Tryblot]

I would say the playoffs are pretty much guaranteed at this point so I was wondering if you'd be able to do this for first in the central?

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

I think it’s more likely Colorado gets the top seed than St Louis, but we’ll see.

Me too. I'm guessing 1. COL 2. STL 3. DAL. Colorado's schedule is a JOKE going forward. Honestly the way Nashville plays us it isn't that big of a deal. But it will suck if we have to play Dallas instead of a team like Calgary. Not sure how the wildcards will play out.

 

[MissouriMook]

I think it’s more likely Colorado gets the top seed than St Louis, but we’ll see.

Me too. I'm guessing 1. COL 2. STL 3. DAL. Colorado's schedule is a JOKE going forward. Honestly the way Nashville plays us it isn't that big of a deal. But it will suck if we have to play Dallas instead of a team like Calgary. Not sure how the wildcards will play out.

I wouldn't be so quick to jump to that conclusion. Dom Luszczyszyn has a standings projection updated daily on The Athletic website, along with odds to make and win each playoff round, based solely on analytics and 0% on emotion. When we were in our swoon a few weeks ago Colorado actually passed us briefly, but that simulation generally has us finishing 2-3 points ahead of Colorado. We have been missing Tarasenko almost all year but are due to get him back soon and Colorado is without Grubauer, Rantanen, and Kadri along with a couple of role players for the next couple of weeks, so nothing is a slam dunk.

Interestingly, now that we've won the last 5 games, the simulation has us tied for the 2nd best odds to win the Cup. We are tied with Boston at 12% with Tampa leading at 21%. By this simulation, and by the eye test, a SCF rematch is certainly not out of the question.