Tracking the Blues’ Stanley Cup Quest—LOL

[Itsnotatrap]

10 points with 4 games in hand seems alarmingly easy after what we just did. I don’t expect it, but I would not be that shocked either.

Last year, we outsource Stastny to Winnipeg to do our dirty work to Nashville, the day after they humiliated us on their home ice, and it was successful. This year, we do our own dirty work, and it will also be successful.

 

[ezcreepin]

Paint this another way: in everyone's last 10 games, we've made up 5 points on Vancouver and 8 on Colorado, while putting 5 on Arizona and 7 on Edmonton. You look at teams who've put up even 11 points in their last 10, it's us, Chicago, San Jose, Calgary, Winnipeg, Nashville, and Dallas - and the latter 3 only have 11/10.

I've got an extended thought on why we're not seeing the playoff chasers really rise up in points right now, and I think part of it has to do with the fact that there's been no really "terrible" teams this year. Last year at this point, you had Arizona with just 38 and Buffalo with only 42 at the same point in time; the year prior, Arizona had 43 and Colorado had 32. This is more like '15-16, where on this date Nashville was in 8th at 59 points and +4 in the W-L column, and Colorado was 5th in points at 62 but just +4. [Coincidentally, Colorado also got hot early in the season and then slid out of the playoff race in the 2nd half of the season.]

This season? Ottawa is in the basement at 47, Detroit has 49, New Jersey has 50. There's no really bad teams that everyone has been able to fatten up on and get easy points off of.

A lot of that has to do with league parity and there not being really any bad players. If a player is bad, anymore now, they are relegated to the AHL. Younger players are thriving in a faster league that sees a transition game more, rather than the old suffocation game, so I think skill is translating much easier than in years past. The consequence of this, and it should be obvious now, is that there really isn't a "bad" team anymore. I also think a big reason for this has to do with goalies being so much better than they ever have been, leading to more competitive games. This is just what I think though.

 

[Zamadoo]

Hello 3rd place Dallas!

Also, it would be neat to see Chicago finish 9th in the West and not have a top-5 pick or make the playoffs.

 

[BlueDream]

Colorado has collapsed big time.

Now Minnesota is doing their best to mirror them. Let's see if VAN or ARI overtakes them.

 

[Default]

Man I'd really hate to see Dallas and or Minnesota in the playoffs. They're both so plain and boring. Continue beating them this month thanks.

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

The Blues are, at worst, the 7th best team in the West.

I'd rank them:
1: San Jose - They'd be a massive favorite if not for Martin Jones in net
2: Calgary - Gets the slight nod over WPG because they dominated them in their 2 meetings
3: Winnipeg - No glaring weaknesses. They could easily win the West. Great team.
4: Nashville - I think NSH is the clear number 4 but a deadline trade could change that.
5: St. Louis - Strong roster is finally matching the preseason expectations as a Cup contender.
6: Las Vegas - It's time to stop counting these guys out.
7: Dallas - Forward depth is terrible but defense and Bishop are outstanding
8: Minnesota - Painfully average again. Especially after Koivu injury. Just enough talent to get in.
9: Chicago - They can score but can't keep the puck out of their net
10: Vancouver - Lacking in depth, Markstrom just ok, a little too young this year
11: Colorado - Really lacking in depth and their goalies have been terrible. One line team.
12: Arizona - About as average as you can get
13: Los Angeles - Got old in a hurry and, wisely, traded Muzzin
14: Edmonton - Even Hitchcock can't make this work. Zero defense. Poor McDavid.
15: Anaheim - LOL. At least they fired Carlyle.

I've watched a lot of Colorado, Vancouver, Minnesota, and Arizona this year as we have climbed back in the race. These teams are so incredibly meh. I'm tempted to put Chicago 8th just because of Kane, Toews, and Keith. Those horses are still going strong. Their D is just too bad.

Vegas is the one team I haven't watched much of outside of our matchups. There's a winning culture already in place there. I just like the Blues roster more.

 

[BlueDream]

The Blues are, at worst, the 7th best team in the West.

I'd rank them:
1: San Jose - They'd be a massive favorite if not for Martin Jones in net
2: Calgary - Gets the slight nod over WPG because they dominated them in their 2 meetings
3: Winnipeg - No glaring weaknesses. They could easily win the West. Great team.
4: Nashville - I think NSH is the clear number 4 but a deadline trade could change that.
5: St. Louis - Strong roster is finally matching the preseason expectations as a Cup contender.
6: Las Vegas - It's time to stop counting these guys out.
7: Dallas - Forward depth is terrible but defense and Bishop are outstanding
8: Minnesota - Painfully average again. Especially after Koivu injury. Just enough talent to get in.
9: Chicago - They can score but can't keep the puck out of their net
10: Vancouver - Lacking in depth, Markstrom just ok, a little too young this year
11: Colorado - Really lacking in depth and their goalies have been terrible. One line team.
12: Arizona - About as average as you can get
13: Los Angeles - Got old in a hurry and, wisely, traded Muzzin
14: Edmonton - Even Hitchcock can't make this work. Zero defense. Poor McDavid.
15: Anaheim - LOL. At least they fired Carlyle.

I've watched a lot of Colorado, Vancouver, Minnesota, and Arizona this year as we have climbed back in the race. These teams are so incredibly meh. I'm tempted to put Chicago 8th just because of Kane, Toews, and Keith. Those horses are still going strong. Their D is just too bad.

Vegas is the one team I haven't watched much of outside of our matchups. There's a winning culture already in place there. I just like the Blues roster more.

I agree with us at 5th.

Winnipeg still scares me more than anyone else in the West. They are deep, and we cannot f***ing stop Laine. Even if he's slumping he'll find a way to score a hatty on us. (Maybe Binnington can put a stop to that though).

But the Blues have a decent chance against anyone, really.

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

I agree with us at 5th.

Winnipeg still scares me more than anyone else in the West. They are deep, and we cannot ****ing stop Laine. Even if he's slumping he'll find a way to score a hatty on us. (Maybe Binnington can put a stop to that though).

But the Blues have a decent chance against anyone, really.

Hey! We beat them 1-0 in Winnipeg after firing Yeo! Of course we also lost 8-4 at home after firing Yeo but that was right after the move.

But yeah, that team can fly! I do think it's incredibly difficult to take anything from our regular season matchups this year. That was a different Blues team. Same with last year.

I wish we had one more regular season matchup against them just to see how we look. Oh well.

 

[Brian39]

So Start Allen in Colorado. He has had better luck there than he has in Minnesota (regular season). Binnington get the rest of the starts for February.

We have another set of back-to-backs after that. Starting Binny in each remaining game would have him start a set of back-to-backs, a stretch where he plays 5 games in 8 nights, all of which include a flight after the game. That is way, way too much.

At a minimum , Allen should play either at home vs Boston 2/23 or on the road in Minnesota 2/24 (I'd play him on the road). I'd have Binny penciled in for the 4 other games we have that aren't on b2bs, but would start Allen in one of those if Binny shows any signs of wearing down and Allen doesn't look bad in his starts. Binny is playing great and should be getting the clear majority of starts, but we don't need to ride him on a 65-70 start pace like he's an elite veteran. We should be putting him in the best position to succeed with gas left in the tank for playoffs.

The league is trending towards lower workloads for all but the top handful of goalies in the league and has been for a few years. One of my biggest complaints about Yeo was his insistence on riding Allen like a 65-70 start guy (even when he was in the middle of his 'highs'). I'm going to be very annoyed if we do the same thing with Binny. Unless your goaltender's name is Gibson, Fleury, or Vasilevski I think you are doing your team a big disservice by riding one goalie on a 60+ start pace in today's NHL.

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

The Blues are, at worst, the 7th best team in the West.

I'd rank them:
1: San Jose - They'd be a massive favorite if not for Martin Jones in net
2: Calgary - Gets the slight nod over WPG because they dominated them in their 2 meetings
3: Winnipeg - No glaring weaknesses. They could easily win the West. Great team.
4: Nashville - I think NSH is the clear number 4 but a deadline trade could change that.
5: St. Louis - Strong roster is finally matching the preseason expectations as a Cup contender.
6: Las Vegas - It's time to stop counting these guys out.
7: Dallas - Forward depth is terrible but defense and Bishop are outstanding
8: Minnesota - Painfully average again. Especially after Koivu injury. Just enough talent to get in.
9: Chicago - They can score but can't keep the puck out of their net
10: Vancouver - Lacking in depth, Markstrom just ok, a little too young this year
11: Colorado - Really lacking in depth and their goalies have been terrible. One line team.
12: Arizona - About as average as you can get
13: Los Angeles - Got old in a hurry and, wisely, traded Muzzin
14: Edmonton - Even Hitchcock can't make this work. Zero defense. Poor McDavid.
15: Anaheim - LOL. At least they fired Carlyle.

I've watched a lot of Colorado, Vancouver, Minnesota, and Arizona this year as we have climbed back in the race. These teams are so incredibly meh. I'm tempted to put Chicago 8th just because of Kane, Toews, and Keith. Those horses are still going strong. Their D is just too bad.

Vegas is the one team I haven't watched much of outside of our matchups. There's a winning culture already in place there. I just like the Blues roster more.

I know they've been dreadful lately but I'd still have Colorado 8th. If I'm the #1 overall seed in the West looking at the teams you have listed 8 through 15, they would scare me the most.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

There is a good body of data showing that rested goalies perform better. I think most teams don't use their back-ups as much as they ought to. Since Binnington looks like the likely playoffs starter, I'd like for them to shape starts and usage to keep him fresh and ready, not work him to a nub for the end of the season.

 

[Stealth JD]

There is a good body of data showing that rested goalies perform better. I think most teams don't use their back-ups as much as they ought to. Since Binnington looks like the likely playoffs starter, I'd like for them to shape starts and usage to keep him fresh and ready, not work him to a nub for the end of the season.

I worry about Binnington running out of juice in April/May. Dude has never had a workload like he's about to experience.

 

[Itsnotatrap]

I worry about Binnington running out of juice in April/May. Dude has never had a workload like he's about to experience.

If we pick up points in these next 3, we can run at a 60-40 type allocation for a while and keep him fresh.

 

[MissouriMook]

If we pick up points in these next 3, we can run at a 60-40 type allocation for a while and keep him fresh.

Which would also figure to give him enough games played to keep him from becoming a Group VI UFA. He needs to play 30 minutes or more in 14 of the last 27 games to keep him a RFA at season's end.

 

[HighNote]

There is a good body of data showing that rested goalies perform better. I think most teams don't use their back-ups as much as they ought to. Since Binnington looks like the likely playoffs starter, I'd like for them to shape starts and usage to keep him fresh and ready, not work him to a nub for the end of the season.

He's only started 12 games There's 27 games left with 7 back-to-backs, so I'm guessing Allen approaches 10 more starts this year (at the current pace we're starting him). That leaves ~16 games, so ~28 total starts for Binnington. I think he'll be good to go.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

I know they've been dreadful lately but I'd still have Colorado 8th. If I'm the #1 overall seed in the West looking at the teams you have listed 8 through 15, they would scare me the most.

Yeah I'm still not totally selling Colorado. I still have them as the 8 seed

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Yeah I'm still not totally selling Colorado. I still have them as the 8 seed

I sell them until they get a new head coach. I don't think Bednar is pulling them out of this nosedive.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

I sell them until they get a new head coach. I don't think Bednar is pulling them out of this nosedive.

It has to do with me being a believer in Varlamov turning it around and really not being impressed with any of Vancover, Arizona, Edmonton, or Minnesota.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

The Blues are, at worst, the 7th best team in the West.

I'd rank them:
1: San Jose - They'd be a massive favorite if not for Martin Jones in net
2: Calgary - Gets the slight nod over WPG because they dominated them in their 2 meetings
3: Winnipeg - No glaring weaknesses. They could easily win the West. Great team.
4: Nashville - I think NSH is the clear number 4 but a deadline trade could change that.
5: St. Louis - Strong roster is finally matching the preseason expectations as a Cup contender.
6: Las Vegas - It's time to stop counting these guys out.
7: Dallas - Forward depth is terrible but defense and Bishop are outstanding
8: Minnesota - Painfully average again. Especially after Koivu injury. Just enough talent to get in.
9: Chicago - They can score but can't keep the puck out of their net
10: Vancouver - Lacking in depth, Markstrom just ok, a little too young this year
11: Colorado - Really lacking in depth and their goalies have been terrible. One line team.
12: Arizona - About as average as you can get
13: Los Angeles - Got old in a hurry and, wisely, traded Muzzin
14: Edmonton - Even Hitchcock can't make this work. Zero defense. Poor McDavid.
15: Anaheim - LOL. At least they fired Carlyle.

It will be interesting to see where people think we rank post-deadline. I also think it would be interesting for everyone to rate our playoff chances now, come back in 2 weeks and see if anything has changed, and then take a final look right before the playoffs start. [You know, presuming we make the playoffs and don't stall out between here and there.]

 

[Ted Hoffman]

It has to do with me being a believer in Varlamov turning it around and really not being impressed with any of Vancover, Arizona, Edmonton, or Minnesota.

I don't disagree with that [especially the "not impressed with" part], but at this point I think it's gone beyond goaltending for Colorado.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I’m waiting to see what teams do at the deadline for me to rank them

 

[Mike Liut]

The Blues are, at worst, the 7th best team in the West.

I'd rank them:
1: San Jose - They'd be a massive favorite if not for Martin Jones in net
2: Calgary - Gets the slight nod over WPG because they dominated them in their 2 meetings
3: Winnipeg - No glaring weaknesses. They could easily win the West. Great team.
4: Nashville - I think NSH is the clear number 4 but a deadline trade could change that.
5: St. Louis - Strong roster is finally matching the preseason expectations as a Cup contender.
6: Las Vegas - It's time to stop counting these guys out.
7: Dallas - Forward depth is terrible but defense and Bishop are outstanding
8: Minnesota - Painfully average again. Especially after Koivu injury. Just enough talent to get in.
9: Chicago - They can score but can't keep the puck out of their net
10: Vancouver - Lacking in depth, Markstrom just ok, a little too young this year
11: Colorado - Really lacking in depth and their goalies have been terrible. One line team.
12: Arizona - About as average as you can get
13: Los Angeles - Got old in a hurry and, wisely, traded Muzzin
14: Edmonton - Even Hitchcock can't make this work. Zero defense. Poor McDavid.
15: Anaheim - LOL. At least they fired Carlyle.

I've watched a lot of Colorado, Vancouver, Minnesota, and Arizona this year as we have climbed back in the race. These teams are so incredibly meh. I'm tempted to put Chicago 8th just because of Kane, Toews, and Keith. Those horses are still going strong. Their D is just too bad.

Vegas is the one team I haven't watched much of outside of our matchups. There's a winning culture already in place there. I just like the Blues roster more.

SJ, Calgary and the Preds don’t scare me. The Jets do

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

He's only started 12 games There's 27 games left with 7 back-to-backs, so I'm guessing Allen approaches 10 more starts this year (at the current pace we're starting him). That leaves ~16 games, so ~28 total starts for Binnington. I think he'll be good to go.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Binnington cooled off and Allen got the 60 in that 60/40 split in a few weeks. But I am confident Berube will play the guy who deserves to play.

 

[Blueston]

There is a good body of data showing that rested goalies perform better. I think most teams don't use their back-ups as much as they ought to. Since Binnington looks like the likely playoffs starter, I'd like for them to shape starts and usage to keep him fresh and ready, not work him to a nub for the end of the season.

Which is why we need to deal fir another goalie to give him breather. #axeshakeyjakey

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

SJ, Calgary and the Preds don’t scare me. The Jets do

I don't see much difference between the Jets, Sharks, and Flames at all.

Calgary has whooped up on the Jets and outscored them 10-4 in their 2 meetings. They have a tremendous group of skilled, swift skating forwards and a top notch top 4 defense.

San Jose has two Norris defensemen and, so far, five 20 goal scorers and a plethora of experience. I've also heard they're in the market for another forward.

We beat Winnipeg 1-0 after Berube had some time with the team. That gives me hope. However, all three teams scare me. All three could very easily win the West.