TOR's best hockey may still be ahead of us

Cor

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Jun 24, 2012
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So, this is something I've been looking into while I'm bored at my office :laugh: So, I've said recently the defense usage needs to change, and that it is hurting the team, and I still firmly believe that, HOWEVER, there is some evidence to show that Toronto's best hockey, even with the current lineup, is still to come.

If we look at their PDO, since the start of January, it's dropped down to around 100, which is where most teams tend to sit. So will these struggles continue? Or will they get back up to around 105, where they were dominant against other teams?

TOR is a team that has the skill up front to have a higher than the norm shooting % and a great goalie in Freddy, who has a higher than norm save %. Issue is, if those two things aren't above the norm, the Leafs tend to lose games like they've done the past few weeks.

However, as I said, TOR has the star power up front to shoot at a higher percentage than other teams, and have a goalie in Andersen who is one of the best in the league.

Due to those factors, the Leafs average PDO should be around, I would say 103. Below, we are getting unlucky, while above, we are getting lucky. Right now, we are hovering around 98-100.9ish. So we have some room to improve in terms of burying chances and getting saves

(Which makes sense, given Sparks/Hutch have started a lot of the recent games due to Andersen's injury)

XzbZfIz.png


HOWEVER, there are positive signs that Toronto could be poised to go on a tear and get the separation they once had back.

If we look at their xGF/xGA differential, since signing Nylander, has been the best it has been all year. They are getting more high danger opportunities and limiting the amount of high danger opps the other team gets.

We are literally seeing this team get their best chances vs the chances they give up all season.

Essentially if, or rather when TOR's sv% and sh% increase to where they normally are, the Leafs best hockey is likely still to come.

t0nTIrF.png
 

Northernguy10

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May 26, 2013
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I'm not a huge fan of advanced stats for hockey but this one I do like because luck is a huge part of the game that is often overlooked ...Better positional play and a commitment to individual defensive effort would also go a long way...Even a team on "pond-hockeyers" can be much better as a team...We don't have to be a great defensive team...Just improve on our obvious weaknesses...That and an improved PDO and away we go...I think we're two years away from being a true contender but it's far from impossible to win ahead of schedule.
 

Peiskos

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Jan 4, 2018
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I would hope so, as for right now we are clearly under performing. How is it even possibly that Montreal is just 1 point behind us? they have essentially AHL caliber depth down the middle whilst we have Matthews-Tavares-Kadri.
 
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rent free

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Apr 6, 2015
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I would hope so, as for right now we are clearly under performing. How is it even possibly that Montreal is just 1 point behind us? they have essentially AHL caliber depth down the middle whilst we have Matthews-Tavares-Kadri.
their centers haven't been AHL caliber at all this season. danault, domi and kotkaniemi have been very good for the habs. the leafs are in a cold streak while the habs are on a hot streak. that's why we are only 1 point ahead of them. this is a parity league. anything is possible.
 

Menzinger

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Apr 24, 2014
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Nice post Cor!

I do agree that once the guys (especially Matthews and Nylander) Finally shake off this funk the team had the potential to absolutely explode in the offensive zone. And I can’t wait to see it happen
 

PromisedLand

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Dec 3, 2016
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35 games left (70 pts )

Leafs currently sitting at 60 pts; so if they go .500 from now on they will end up at around 95 pts;

leafs will make the playoffs unless 18 wheeler and what not....

but once they make the playoffs are they going to compete or is it another 1st round exit?
 

socko

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Nov 26, 2013
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I don't really care about your advanced stats, but yes when Matthews invariably gets hot again, the team will be better. And Nylander might even get some of those coattail points we all love. Assuming he's not still on the 4th line or a healthy scratch.
 
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WTFMAN99

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Jun 17, 2009
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Matthews shooting % has taken a nose dive

Nylander and Kadri cold as hell. Brown, Lindholm and Gauthier relatively inept offensively. Rielly and Gardiner the only threats on the blue line. A lot of people need to pick up the slack.
 
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HolyCrap

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Oct 2, 2015
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35 games left (70 pts )

Leafs currently sitting at 60 pts; so if they go .500 from now on they will end up at around 95 pts;

leafs will make the playoffs unless 18 wheeler and what not....

but once they make the playoffs are they going to compete or is it another 1st round exit?

Yeah we should be able to make playoffs. We have a few games in hand on Bruins and Habs. If both those teams win tonight we’re a point behind and in the wildcard spot.
 

Spirit of 67

Registered User
Nov 25, 2016
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Aurora, On.
So, this is something I've been looking into while I'm bored at my office :laugh: So, I've said recently the defense usage needs to change, and that it is hurting the team, and I still firmly believe that, HOWEVER, there is some evidence to show that Toronto's best hockey, even with the current lineup, is still to come.

If we look at their PDO, since the start of January, it's dropped down to around 100, which is where most teams tend to sit. So will these struggles continue? Or will they get back up to around 105, where they were dominant against other teams?

TOR is a team that has the skill up front to have a higher than the norm shooting % and a great goalie in Freddy, who has a higher than norm save %. Issue is, if those two things aren't above the norm, the Leafs tend to lose games like they've done the past few weeks.

However, as I said, TOR has the star power up front to shoot at a higher percentage than other teams, and have a goalie in Andersen who is one of the best in the league.

Due to those factors, the Leafs average PDO should be around, I would say 103. Below, we are getting unlucky, while above, we are getting lucky. Right now, we are hovering around 98-100.9ish. So we have some room to improve in terms of burying chances and getting saves

(Which makes sense, given Sparks/Hutch have started a lot of the recent games due to Andersen's injury)

XzbZfIz.png


HOWEVER, there are positive signs that Toronto could be poised to go on a tear and get the separation they once had back.

If we look at their xGF/xGA differential, since signing Nylander, has been the best it has been all year. They are getting more high danger opportunities and limiting the amount of high danger opps the other team gets.

We are literally seeing this team get their best chances vs the chances they give up all season.

Essentially if, or rather when TOR's sv% and sh% increase to where they normally are, the Leafs best hockey is likely still to come.

t0nTIrF.png
It's much simpler than this.

Work harder. Work harder and the wins will come. Not rocket science.
 
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LeafFever

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Feb 12, 2016
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WE have not even come close to seeing the best of the Leafs this season. Would be great if we did for game 1 of the playoffs.
 

Nineteen67

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The PP has to contribute a lot more. Your numbers may be 5v5 but if the PP gets going it will open the game a little more when the opposition is trailing, which should lead to better scoring opportunities.

Another variable is the upcoming condensed schedule. I don’t know if it will favour or hinder the Leafs. I haven’t looked at everyones schedule to compare, however, Montreal and Ottawa, for example, have already played 3 more games than the Leafs and I think they play them both (one for sure) on the back end of the back to back.
 

Joedoggy

Registered User
Feb 7, 2017
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Its more likely Toronto's best Hockey or chance for a P/O run was last year.....they were closer as mates...the team had the grit / hitters/defensive specialists/and the guy who would go to he wall for mates and is now in NY....the team built by Lou was definitely built to contend..players were gelling into a TEAM
 
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Tavares to Marner

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Dec 20, 2011
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Its more likely Toronto's best Hockey or chance for a P/O run was last year.....they were closer as mates...the team had the grit / hitters/defensive specialists/and the guy who would go to he wall for mates and is now in NY....the team built by Lou was definitely built to contend..players were gelling into a TEAM

Go to bed Lou
 

Morbo

The Annihilator
Jan 14, 2003
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Toronto
Its more likely Toronto's best Hockey or chance for a P/O run was last year.....they were closer as mates...the team had the grit / hitters/defensive specialists/and the guy who would go to he wall for mates and is now in NY....the team built by Lou was definitely built to contend..players were gelling into a TEAM

well if that's the case might as well pack it in because a 1st round loss isn't impressive in the least.

ever think that's why those grit/hitters/defensive specialists aren't here anymore?
 

Gary Nylund

Registered User
Oct 10, 2013
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It's much simpler than this.

Work harder. Work harder and the wins will come. Not rocket science.

Yeah pretty charts are nice and everything but if you don't work hard, you have zero chance of success in the playoffs. In that regard, last nights performance was a disgrace and it's really hard for me to have confidence in this team.
 

Nithoniniel

Registered User
Sep 7, 2012
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I'm not a huge fan of advanced stats for hockey but this one I do like because luck is a huge part of the game that is often overlooked
It's not always about luck either. Some people have a problem with the term, so they block out what you say any time you mention PDO.

I think we could be described as doing better lately in everything from limiting quantity and quality of chances, and to creating offense of our own. It's just that this has coincided with us losing our goalie and a number of our most crucial offensive players going through slumps. If they continue to play the same way as they do in general, Matthews and Kadri start finding the back of the net, and the points start coming for Nylander, we'll be back as one of the top teams in the league.

I do think that we shouldn't take for granted that even if this happens, there's just no guarantee that we continue to play as well. It's natural for players to try harder when the goals don't come at will anymore.

Yeah pretty charts are nice and everything but if you don't work hard, you have zero chance of success in the playoffs. In that regard, last nights performance was a disgrace and it's really hard for me to have confidence in this team.
Last nights game was really hard to watch. I haven't turned off a game in five years, but this time I was close.
 
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Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
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It's not always about luck either. Some people have a problem with the term, so they block out what you say any time you mention PDO.

I think we could be described as doing better lately in everything from limiting quantity and quality of chances, and to creating offense of our own. It's just that this has coincided with us losing our goalie and a number of our most crucial offensive players going through slumps. If they continue to play the same way as they do in general, Matthews and Kadri start finding the back of the net, and the points start coming for Nylander, we'll be back as one of the top teams in the league.

I do think that we shouldn't take for granted that even if this happens, there's just no guarantee that we continue to play as well. It's natural for players to try harder when the goals don't come at will anymore.


Last nights game was really hard to watch. I haven't turned off a game in five years, but this time I was close.
Funny you say that but I turned off with 10 minutes left with no interest who was going to win the game because in my mind, the leafs lost in effort and skill. Boring game
 

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