GDT: Toronto vs Pittsburgh||Oct 26 7:00 PM||CBC|

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GordieHoweHatTrick

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Sep 20, 2009
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According to James Mirtle the Maple Leafs have an unsustainable shooting percentage because they shot at 11.5% last season, and are at 12.3% to start this season, but the NHL average has been 9.2% in recent years. He cites the 2009/10 Washington Capitals, who shot 11.7% that season but dropped down to 8.5% the following season, as a comparable to the Leafs' imminent collapse. What he ignores is that those Capitals teams peppered the opposition with 32 shot on average those two seasons.

The Leafs got 26.3 shots on average last season and 26.6 to start this season and are currently on pace to score 260 goals shooting at a 12.3% clip. If that shooting percentage dropped down even the 9.2% Mirtle suggests but the Leafs increased their shot totals to the league average (~30.4) they would score ~234 goals this season (not a devastating number). Also, I wonder what the correlation between teams with low Shots For totals and their shooting % to teams with high Shots For totals and their shooting % is like. I'm guessing the teams who shoot more have lower %s and teams which shoot less have higher %, which digs a little deeper into the opportunistic nature of NHL offenses.

There are so many variables I think its too simplistic to say the Leafs shooting % is this but its unsustainable and if it falls down to this, this will be the ultimate outcome. Its also gotten a little boring.
 

JAMmer124

Independent Living
Aug 13, 2010
5,415
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hey guys, just coming in because of your line up for the Pens GDT.

Will Ashton take Lupul's spot on the 2nd line, Bodie to the 3rd line and Mclaren on the 4th line?

thanks.

probably see something along the lines of:

JvR-Bozak(?)-Kessel
Raymond-Kadri-Ashton
McClement-Bolland-Clarkson
McLaren-Smith-Orr

Unless Bozak can't go, I dont think he finished the game last night. If thats the case, lines are anyones guess.
 

Backhandshelf81

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Jun 14, 2013
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I expect healy to say something along the lines of, if kadri makes an error. Than healy might show crosby, and say than kadri should follow crosby. Than i will be like " yeah kadri should play like the best player in the game. Pretty easy task"
Gardiner is playing much better under carlyle these last few games. Yet people will disclaim that fact just to say randy doesnt let gardiner rush
The puck. If u guys watch. Gardiner is still rushing but more controlled.


Gardiner's offense still seems stifled. By fear or what, I don't know.
 

bunjay

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Nov 9, 2008
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The Leafs are 7 - 4 making James Mirtle's and Cam Charron's insights kind of wrong. They'll run with this schtick as long as it takes before they're right, but at the moment they've been wrong for a season +.

The thing is that the Leafs' current record doesn't actually make the prediction wrong at all. I'll explain why in the simplest way possible because you don't seem to grasp very straightforward probability.

The "schtick" you're referring to is just a very basic assumption about averages. In a simplified way all they're saying is "if you flip a coin 82 times it's probably going to land on heads about as many times as tails."

This statement is true regardless of the actual results of the coin flip, no matter how improbable. It's true even if the first 11 flips are all heads or tails, let alone if the split is 7-4.

Why is a coin-toss a good analogy? Because all the "advanced stats" people are doing is pointing that things like shooting and save percentage are most likely to trend toward an average as the season goes on, much like the results of a coin-toss are most likely to even out the more times you do it.

That doesn't mean that the Leafs can't continue having an excellent record while getting outshot by keeping their save and shooting percentage unusually high. It means that this is improbable.
 
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TootooTrain

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Jun 12, 2010
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There are so many variables I think its too simplistic to say the Leafs shooting % is this but its unsustainable and if it falls down to this, this will be the ultimate outcome. Its also gotten a little boring.

Tell me about it. I appreciate the effort you put into that post though.
 

bunjay

Registered User
Nov 9, 2008
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According to James Mirtle the Maple Leafs have an unsustainable shooting percentage because they shot at 11.5% last season, and are at 12.3% to start this season, but the NHL average has been 9.2% in recent years. He cites the 2009/10 Washington Capitals, who shot 11.7% that season but dropped down to 8.5% the following season, as a comparable to the Leafs' imminent collapse. What he ignores is that those Capitals teams peppered the opposition with 32 shot on average those two seasons.

The Leafs got 26.3 shots on average last season and 26.6 to start this season and are currently on pace to score 260 goals shooting at a 12.3% clip. If that shooting percentage dropped down even the 9.2% Mirtle suggests but the Leafs increased their shot totals to the league average (~30.4) they would score ~234 goals this season (not a devastating number). Also, I wonder what the correlation between teams with low Shots For totals and their shooting % to teams with high Shots For totals and their shooting % is like. I'm guessing the teams who shoot more have lower %s and teams which shoot less have higher %, which digs a little deeper into the opportunistic nature of NHL offenses.

There are so many variables I think its too simplistic to say the Leafs shooting % is this but its unsustainable and if it falls down to this, this will be the ultimate outcome. Its also gotten a little boring.

Shooting percentage has a pretty solid correlation to powerplay effectiveness.
 

ldnk

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Apr 8, 2009
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The thing is that the Leafs' current record doesn't actually make the prediction wrong at all. I'll explain why in the simplest way possible because you don't seem to grasp very straightforward probability.

The "schtick" you're referring to is just a very basic assumption about averages. In a simplified way all they're saying is "if you flip a coin 82 times it's probably going to land on heads about as many times as tails."

This statement is true regardless of the actual results of the coin flip, no matter how improbable. It's true even if the first 11 flips are all heads or tails, let alone if the split is 7-4.

Why is a coin-toss a good analogy? Because all the "advanced stats" people are doing is pointing that things like shooting and save percentage are most likely to trend toward an average as the season goes on, much like the results of a coin-toss are most likely to even out the more times you do it.

That doesn't mean that the Leafs can't continue having an excellent record while getting outshot by keeping their save and shooting percentage unusually high. It means that this is improbable.

There are far too many confounds to equate shooting percentage/wins to a coin toss.
 

Penalty Kill Icing*

Guest
Mark Masters ‏@markhmasters 2m
Carlyle: "[Crosby] finds ways to overcome a lot of the defensive systems & people he competes against. He takes it as a personal challenge."

Crosby is going to have a tough time tonight. Simply because Carlyle has no defensive system in place anyways. :yo:
 

Hurt

Registered User
Apr 6, 2009
28,303
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I get the impression that people think there is a much bigger difference between teams than there actually is.

There is. If there wasn't, there wouldn't be herculean-like playoff streaks or embarrassing playoff-missed streaks or dominant teams like Chicago making teams look like amateurs.
 

rojac

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Apr 5, 2007
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The thing is that the Leafs' current record doesn't actually make the prediction wrong at all. I'll explain why in the simplest way possible because you don't seem to grasp very straightforward probability.

The "schtick" you're referring to is just a very basic assumption about averages. In a simplified way all they're saying is "if you flip a coin 82 times it's probably going to land on heads about as many times as tails."

This statement is true regardless of the actual results of the coin flip, no matter how improbable. It's true even if the first 11 flips are all heads or tails, let alone if the split is 7-4.

Why is a coin-toss a good analogy? Because all the "advanced stats" people are doing is pointing that things like shooting and save percentage are most likely to trend toward an average as the season goes on, much like the results of a coin-toss are most likely to even out the more times you do it.

That doesn't mean that the Leafs can't continue having an excellent record while getting outshot by keeping their save and shooting percentage unusually high. It means that this is improbable.

But doesn't this regressing to the average assumption completely ignore individual skill? Essentially, they are saying no matter what the talent is on the team, they'll eventually end up with a league average shooting percentage. But what if you have a team that has a large number of high scoring percentage players? And what if those players were picking the spots when they shoot rather than just constantly throwing the puck at the net?
 

TootooTrain

Sandpaper
Jun 12, 2010
35,505
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But doesn't this regressing to the average assumption completely ignore individual skill? Essentially, they are saying no matter what the talent is on the team, they'll eventually end up with a league average shooting percentage. But what if you have a team that has a large number of high scoring percentage players? And what if those players were picking the spots when they shoot rather than just constantly throwing the puck at the net?

This is why these stats are way too raw to be used as fact or gospel like Mirtle has come to think. In baseball there are a limited amount of outcomes. In hockey it's almost infinite. Creativity can't be measured.

Is it just me or does Phaneuf usually do decent against Pittsburgh?

Not familiar with the previous games played, but Dion is the kind of guy who "gets up" for elite players coming into town. Takes it as a challenge and casts a shadow over them all game long.
 
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Warden of the North

Ned Stark's head
Apr 28, 2006
46,263
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Muskoka
The leafs SH% is so high that they due for some regression and an epic collapse. They got lucky last season and outlasted the odds, but even the leafs can't out play the power of mathematical statistics. People should read James Mirtle or Cam Charron etc for some unbiased insights on hockey

Hes from BC. Something tells me he didnt grow up a Leafs fan.
 

bunjay

Registered User
Nov 9, 2008
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But doesn't this regressing to the average assumption completely ignore individual skill? Essentially, they are saying no matter what the talent is on the team, they'll eventually end up with a league average shooting percentage. But what if you have a team that has a large number of high scoring percentage players? And what if those players were picking the spots when they shoot rather than just constantly throwing the puck at the net?

You're not assuming that they will regress to the average, you are assuming they will regress toward the average from the extreme highs and lows. So if your shooting percentage starts out unusually high, it's reasonable to assume it will drop over time and vice versa.

You don't think San Jose is going to maintain a 4 goal-per-game average -- a full .5 higher than the next placed team -- for the rest of the season do you? Or that Buffalo, Philly, and the Rangers are going to score 1.5 goals-per-game or less for the rest of the season? Or that nine starting goaltenders will finish the season with a .930 save percentage or better?

Apply the same logic to the leafs' current shooting percentage of 11.95. Do you think goalies are going to average barely over .88 save % against us the entire year?
 

thewave

Registered User
Jun 17, 2011
39,884
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Even though Crosby always gets his points regardless, Phaneuf does play him pretty well IMO.

Grabo and Dion ran Crosby out of town last year and the year before. Just hope it's not Bozak, it was tried, 2 GA in under 1 period play by Crosby an company.
 

LV*

Free my bro Leivo
Aug 26, 2012
11,559
10
Toronto
probably see something along the lines of:

JvR-Bozak(?)-Kessel
Raymond-Kadri-Ashton
McClement-Bolland-Clarkson
McLaren-Smith-Orr

Unless Bozak can't go, I dont think he finished the game last night. If thats the case, lines are anyones guess.

I'd rather go with

Reemer-Bozak-Kessel
Ashton-Kadri-Clarkson
McClem-Bolly-Raymond
McLaren-Smith-Bodie
 
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