Proposal: Toronto - Phoenix

Crosscrease14

Registered User
Dec 16, 2014
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It'd be a one for one or small add on either side. I'd do it from a leafs perspective only because they are loaded on LD. I think Dermott will have a decent future so not upset if leafs can find a way to keep him either
 

seanlinden

Registered User
Apr 28, 2009
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We can add grit and truculence from free agents. No need to trade a good young (and cheap) defenseman for it.

Value wise, the 2nd probably makes it an overpay for the coyotes, but there’s just no point for the Leafs. Dermott is exactly who we need.

Who in UFA is going to bring grit to the Leafs top 6?
 

realgoodleafs

Registered User
Oct 29, 2006
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SW Ontario
Dermott isn't even a 2nd pairing guy and is unlikely to get there. That's why Leafs fans are offering him around. Easily replaceable player for most every team.

Crouse, not so much.

IMO he's being offered around because Dubas fans have a grudge against anybody drafted by Mark Hunter.
 

Srsly

Registered User
Feb 8, 2011
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Upland
IMO he's being offered around because Dubas fans have a grudge against anybody drafted by Mark Hunter.
I can’t speak for all Leaf fans, but I’m willing to move him because Sandin should be more than capable of playing on the third pairing and Muzzin/Rielly are unlikely to be pushed below him depth wise. He was looking like a top four defensemen prior to his injury but had problems upon his return, he probably is a future top four defensemen but Sandin also debatably appears to have more upside.

Long story short, I feel like the Leafs have depth on the left and moving Dermott is one of the few pieces with positive value that can be moved for cap relief without setting the Leafs back too far.
 

seanlinden

Registered User
Apr 28, 2009
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Crouse would not be playing in our top 6.

He could certainly find his way there. Zach Hyman has been incredibly valuable for the leafs because he brings some grit to a line where the other 2 players on it are highly, highly skilled.

Put Hyman back with Tavares & Marner for the line that saw JT put up 47 goals, let Crouse make space for Matthews & Nylander. Mikheyev, Robertson to bring some skill in the bottom 6 and make the leafs a 4-line team.

Something to the tune of:
Crouse-Matthews-Nylander
Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Simmonds
Robertson-Spezza-Engvall

Ideally replace Kerfoot with more of a defensive-minded centre. Johnsson unfortunately gone to make the cap work. Maybe you can add another gritty right winger to make Engvall the 13th forward.
 

Kai Yo T

Registered User
Nov 27, 2006
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Scottsdale, AZ
I beg to differ, he's a future top pairing dman. Phoenix likely wins this trade in the medium to long term. They aren't looking to have another 5 year rebuild and will need the defensive help once they trade OEL. This trade is a necessity for Phoenix, which needs to be noted.

We couldn't get what OEL was worth in this market and it's already been announced we're keeping him for the time being. The highlighted part of your post is what is flawed. Arizona isn't making moves out of desperation for you to take advantage of.
 

Prominence

Ryan Tverberg Fan
Jul 22, 2011
1,251
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Vancouver
EDIT: I thought he was comparing dermott to crouse. So I changed it to nuutivara.

Yes: someone preferring a player already playing on your team...who would imagine?
I was sort of trolling the other guy but I am of the analytics rationality. Dermott is objectively better than Lawson Crouse. Crouse is only effective at scoring 5v5 as all of his points are on even strength.

Travis Dermott
Here is Dermott's heatmap.
Dermott TOR 1920 5v5 Shot Locations (Against)

A good defenseman prevents shots from in front of the net and the slot, which dermott does an effective job of. xG/60 (it's like shots for but adjusted by distance so point shots are valued less while shots in close are valued highly) is significantly lower (-6%) than the leafs when he's not on the ice (+9%). You want the lower number on defence. This means that when dermott is on the ice, he suppresses or prevents quality chances. His offensive chart is nothing to write home about, but I would not describe him as a liability here. Dermott TOR 1920 5v5 Shot Locations (For)

Another decent metric is RAPM. It looks at a set of metrics and adjusts them according to score effects (teams losing by 1-2 tend to try harder), coaching, quality of teammates. This is Travis Dermott's. Offensively. he is average, but defensively, he is very good and supports the findings of the heatmap.

Travis Dermott is a considerable positive on defense.
Lawson Crouse
Here are crouse's heatmaps.
Offense:
Crouse ARI 1920 5v5 Shot Locations (For)
Defense:
Crouse ARI 1920 5v5 Shot Locations (Against)

For a guy that is 6'4 220lbs, he does not seem to crash the net often or make plays in the slot. Good offensive players find ways to capitalize on high danger scoring opportunities and he is nowhere consistent in this regard. Without Crouse, the coyotes generate better chances.

The coyotes are good at preventing shots from the front of the net and the middle of the slot. They tend to allow slightly more shots from the right and left side of the slot. When Crouse is in his zone, there are considerably more shots from the slot. xG/60 is 8% worse when Crouse is in his zone. The PK is also worse when he's on the ice, but I will let you do that work yourself.

Here is Lawson Crouse's RAPM for 2016-2019.
I could only find his rapm for 2020 but it has a sample size of 216 minutes, which is low, but it does strongly correlate with the 2016-2019 numbers. These numbers are below average. He generates few shots, few scoring opportunities and is slightly below average in preventing shots and scoring opportunities.

Crouse is not a net positive on defense or offense.

Eye-Test:
What if Crouse looks better when you watch him?
Answer: It's irrelevant if there are no tangible results.

Conclusion: Dermott is objectively better than Crouse.

Nuutivara:
Sources: Nutivaara CBJ 1920
Nutivaara CBJ 1920 5v5 Shot Locations (For)
RAPM

Nuutivara is a slight positive on defense, but not to the extent of dermott. In terms of suppression, Nuutivara is slightly worse than his team average. He generates little opportunities offensively as indicated by both his heatmap and rapm charts. Nuutivara has a better differential on defence at -8% xG, but you have to take into consideration that columbus has a more disciplined system/coach and the fact that it is slightly lower than CBJ's average of -12%. Dermott's is lower (-6%), but considerably higher than TML's average of +9%.

Nuutivara is a lot better at zone entries, but dermott beats him in zone exits, controlling entries and shot generation. Tableau Public
The weird thing is that nutivaara had a pretty bad year for zone metrics so I used his results from 2019

So yes, I would take Dermott over Nutivaara any day of the week.
 
Last edited:

Heldig

Registered User
Apr 12, 2002
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BC
No it's because Dermott is a natural LD and unlike Brodie very rarely if ever plays RD.

Currently Dermott is the #4 LD behind Rielly Muzzin and Sandin

That's why he's available
And he would be the 4th LHD on the Coyotes as well, behind OEL, Chychrun and Goligoski.
 

Hockey Stick

Registered User
Jan 3, 2018
1,406
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I beg to differ, he's a future top pairing dman. Phoenix likely wins this trade in the medium to long term. They aren't looking to have another 5 year rebuild and will need the defensive help once they trade OEL. This trade is a necessity for Phoenix, which needs to be noted.
If Dermott is a future top pairing dman, then Victor Mete is already a bonafide #1
 
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Albus Dumbledore

Master of Death
Mar 28, 2015
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Depth issues push back dermott. He was actually on the top pair for a stretch when rielly, muzzin went down.

Hes a capable #4 imo. And if I'm being honest was the 2nd best defensive D now with brodie prolly 3.

Leafs fan base is big is the reason you see p much every player in trade talks not necessarily because most of the fan base wants him gone.

There are reasons to trade dermott(cap, LhD abundance), skill and abilities are not it.
 

seanlinden

Registered User
Apr 28, 2009
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If that’s the case then why even make this proposal?

Leafs have 4 young defencemen, all with similar upside and playing style. They have room for 1 in the top 6 and 1 to take the 7th spot.

The Leafs have nobody who brings Crouse's combination of size and skill.
 
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Lainehasaweirdface

Registered User
May 14, 2015
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Analytics should be and are valued more than whether or not a guy can hit.

With that said, Leafs need a guy that can hit, and they also have a glut of talented LD; so the trade works for them. However, the 2nd needs to be coming back from Phoenix, otherwise it's too lopsided.
I almost don't believe it how much you're over-valuing Dermott.
 

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