VHL is a step up in from MHL , but a step down from the K. So pretty ideal imo . Jump to KHL would likely be too much and I could see the scenario you described play out . Numbers currently putting you are promising but he needs more of a challenge.
From what I've read there's about a 0% chance Ovchinnikov is sent to a VHL team unless he's traded to another organization (highly unlikely).
The reason is because Sibir doesn't have a VHL team, and their "affiliate" Orsk is over 2000km away from them (Sibir currently has ~3 guys on that VHL team). The issue with sending him there is as one poster put it "it's more of a banishing than a promotion" because Sibir's MHL and their KHL team are in the same city. Sending him to Orsk is as good as pretending he's no longer in the organization and they're not going to do that to [probably] their best prospect.
It'd be nice to see him getting ~10 minutes a game on the 4th line in the KHL, but he's "played" 5 games this season and he hasn't played more than a minute each game. A KHL poster said the team can't afford to risk playing him (even if he is one of their best 12 players) because they need every game and "can't trust a kid". For me, the MHL is fine granted he continues to dominate and prove he's arguably the best player in the league- it's obviously not what is most ideal (KHL minutes) for his development, but his dominance is promoting posts like:
and the MHL at worst is a small step down from the CHL.
