Toronto is in a very scary position right now (looking at PPG)

[Orfieus]

edit: Updating after Dec4 loss to Avs

Toronto has 30pts

Tampa has 5gms in hand (29pts)
Rangers have 4gms in hand (29pts)
Florida has 3gms in hand (31pts)
Buffalo has 2gms in hand (31pts)
Montreal has 2gms in hand (30pts)
Columbus has 3gms in hand (26pts)

Besides Columbus (who will have to go on a 3 game winning streak) every single one of those teams is ahead of Toronto.

Let's look in the other direction for a moment,

Toronto is ranked 21st in the league with 30pts

Tampa at 29pts (5gms in hand) is 22
Ranges at 29pts (4gms in hand) is 23
Nashville at 29pts (3gms in hand) is 24
Anaheim at 28pts (2gms i hand) is 25

Toronto could be as low as 25th in the league


Last year, for the most part, Edmonton was only 4-6pts out of a playoff spot, the issue was there were like 5-6 other teams ahead of them in the standings. Ultimately Edmonton crumbled when they realized they were not going to make it and picked decently high in the draft. Toronto is in this exact same situation

But..BUT STL was in last place and they were able to win it last year. Ya, the odds of something like that happening again are so slim and the odds of that happening in B2B years is next to impossible. There are just too many teams ahead of Toronto for Toronto to have any chance of making it into the playoffs

I truly believe the season is over

Click to read more...

 

[ottomaddox]

I don't disagree with your statement. I'll only say that to be a good team you have to win on the road.

 

[LeafChief]

What if those 4 teams don't win all of their games?

 

[Nineteen67]

I anticipated they would be in a playoff fight all year and, as of Nov 10th, nothing suggests that’ll change anytime soon.

 

[deletethis]

I'm more concerned that this is the record after playing 12 home games as opposed to 6 road games.

 

[Stand Witness]

Over time I've started valuing points in the bank more than games in hand.

It's still early. Buffalo has fallen off the rails again. Montreal will fight right until the end and Tampa will likely explode up at some point. The schedule for the Leafs hasn't been favourable at all for us yet.

 

[Its not your fault]

I made this post to show people the landscape Toronto is in using Points per Game:

D1: Boston - 1.5
D2: Montreal - 1.23
D3: Toronto - 1.22
D4: Tampa - 1.20
D5: Florida - 1.19
D6: Buffalo - 1.17

Montreal has 1gm in hand (if they win will have more points)
Tampa has 3gms in hand (if they win will have more points)
Florida has 2gm in hand (if they win they will have more points)
Buffalo has 1gm in hand (if they win we are tied)

I know this is a big if, but if all teams win their games in hand Toronto isn't in a wildcard position, they will actually be tied with Buffalo in the W3 spot.

I know it is early in the season but a lot of people like to say they are 2nd in the division or they are on pace for X amount of points, but this is the reality of Toronto position right now.

Today (Nov10th) Toronto, Florida and Boston are playing and if Toronto isn't able to scrape out 1-2pts this picture will get a whole lot worse and that is not even taking into account Toronto is going on the road for like 6 weeks

Everyone has pretty much said they have played like crap need to be tougher. No one has said we aren't anything but lucky to be where we are. You are like saying to a bunch of people we know we're sucky right now. You're the guy who's late to the party and still yells surprise. Lol really. This is good news Mr I know it's early. No one has once said they have been doing amazing we are play off teams heck I might even be dropping the first plan the parade route.
Thank you raptors for showing us how we can improve on it this year. Sincerely It's Not_Your Fault

Just saying, be a fan.

P. S. Thanks for the good news about PPG!

 

[hullsy47]

I'm more concerned that this is the record after playing 12 home games as opposed to 6 road games.

I agree .also look hypothetically at the remaining games even just 2019
Its gonna take Barrie and nylander to play to their full potential or we are likely missing the playoffs
And just remember Florida and buffalo not to mention the islanders are better and the the coaching for the top 20 teams are about equal
Having the highest paid coach means diddly now

 

[DopeyFish]

Nothing like fretting about position in week 5 of a 26 week season

 

[Dekes For Days]

So if every single team below us wins every single one of their games in hand, they'll be close to us? Wow, this is a shocking revelation. I'm rocked to my core. This is surely going to happen, and if - no when - it does, there's only like 30 weeks left of the season!

 

[Kamiccolo]

I say this sincerely.. Who gives a shit if we make it in a division spot or a wildcard spot? yes I know expectation was home ice, but that's been the goal two years now and didn't happen. If it means we avoid Boston in the first round maybe it's a good thing?

I believe that part of the problem at least is that the Bruins are in the Leafs heads. It's all they hear. Maybe if they can win a round it will help them go on a run with the confidence. Besides, Montreal isn't going to play at a 100+ point pace and neither is Buffalo. The Atlantic will go back to how it has always been with Bruins / Leafs / Tampa fighting over the 3 spots.

 

[nuck]

I made this post to show people the landscape Toronto is in using Points per Game:

D1: Boston - 1.5
D2: Montreal - 1.23
D3: Toronto - 1.22
D4: Tampa - 1.20
D5: Florida - 1.19
D6: Buffalo - 1.17

Montreal has 1gm in hand (if they win will have more points)
Tampa has 3gms in hand (if they win will have more points)
Florida has 2gm in hand (if they win they will have more points)
Buffalo has 1gm in hand (if they win we are tied)

I know this is a big if, but if all teams win their games in hand Toronto isn't in a wildcard position, they will actually be tied with Buffalo in the W3 spot.

I know it is early in the season but a lot of people like to say they are 2nd in the division or they are on pace for X amount of points, but this is the reality of Toronto position right now.

Today (Nov10th) Toronto, Florida and Boston are playing and if Toronto isn't able to scrape out 1-2pts this picture will get a whole lot worse and that is not even taking into account Toronto is going on the road for like 6 weeks

Its say too early in the season to matter. Start doing the math after game 60 maybe because the standings at game 20 are not really meaningful. There are a whole bunch of winning and losing streaks ahead for these clubs. Right now its what sort of positive things are sustainable and what sort of weaknesses are improvable with the coach and the lineup they have.

This is the strongest lineup yet so if the goaltending doesn't take a dump I can't see them behind last season, notwithstanding Barrie's ineffectiveness, and he is either going to get better or get traded. Nothing is too scary with 65 games left.

 

[Nineteen67]

Over time I've started valuing points in the bank more than games in hand.

It's still early. Buffalo has fallen off the rails again. Montreal will fight right until the end and Tampa will likely explode up at some point. The schedule for the Leafs hasn't been favourable at all for us yet.

This week there are 8 points available and getting 4 or more would have to be considered a pretty good week
1 team they’re better than
1 they’re on par
2 playing slightly better right now.

 

[Canada4Gold]

If everyone wins their games in hand they'll pass us oh no. Or we could assume teams win at the same pace they are already and we're in WC1 spot.

Obviously not great, but no need to panic and assume the worst

 

[Mickey Marner]

Is there a new rule where playoff seeding is determined in the middle of November?

 

[Maplebeasts]

Too early to be worried. We're in the playoffs right now playing a ton of games and with injuries. Some teams are also clearly punching above their weight right now.

 

[Zybalto]

In a decent position considering the we got through maybe the worst part of our schedule all season (and the first half is considerably worse than the second), we have dealt with injuries and rough early goaltending and some players took a while to get going (some still havnt which is a worry, I'm looking at you Barrie)

With Hyman still not back, Marner now out and still no wins for a backup (hopefully tonight), the team is going to have to fight theough more adversity but there are a ton of positives out there.

The emergence of Holl as the partner Dermott has needed, Kerfoot looking like a solid 3C, Matthews and Nylander really starting to click again, Ceci emerging as a solid top pairing RHD despite attempts to tear him down by almost everyone before he played a game, Andersen turning it around before October even ended and looking in top form, Moore and Soupy having solid starts to their first NHL seasons, and more.

The big thing we should all be waiting for is the return or both Marner and Hyman now to reunite our best line from last year (and kne of the best lines in the league). With Matthews and Nylander on form, it would really give us a two pronged attack that would open up the offensive floodgates we are lacking that is showing in our much decreased high danger chance creation. (I do love the silly conspiracy theories that Babcock is all of a sudden the one responsible for that stat despite being near the top in that category the last couple years.)

I'm still very optimistic right now.

 

[Dreakmur]

Significant roster turn-over, tough schedule, and some pretty important players injured makes this start pretty decent.

The almost entirely new defense core will need some time to build chemistry.

The first line hasn’t played a game together yet, and all three of them have missed games.

Our goalie always sucks on October.

We lead the league in back to back games, right?

 

[Suntouchable13]

I say this sincerely.. Who gives a **** if we make it in a division spot or a wildcard spot? yes I know expectation was home ice, but that's been the goal two years now and didn't happen. If it means we avoid Boston in the first round maybe it's a good thing?

I believe that part of the problem at least is that the Bruins are in the Leafs heads. It's all they hear. Maybe if they can win a round it will help them go on a run with the confidence. Besides, Montreal isn't going to play at a 100+ point pace and neither is Buffalo. The Atlantic will go back to how it has always been with Bruins / Leafs / Tampa fighting over the 3 spots.

I'd be weary of facing a team like Washington, for example, in the first round. Or if we end facing a team like Tampa if they win the division who is hungry and motivated after getting swept in the first round last year? There are no gimmes. I'd rather they finish as high as possible. Most teams will provide a huge challenge for this Leafs team.

 

[HogTown06]

When tonight's game is over we'll have played 5 back-to-back games, almost half of the B2Bs this season. Also had a difficult month of October while missing our captain and 1st (or 2nd however you see it) line center for almost half the games.

Montreal for instance got 6 of their points playing rested against us on the second leg of a B2B twice and playing Boston once.

Leafs are going to be okay, once they get fully healthy and start firing on all cylinders I think.

 

[Hustlr]

Nothing like fretting about position in week 5 of a 26 week season

Ya, too early for standings, critique the play instead

 

[Joey Hoser]

That extrapolates to all 6 teams with at least 96 points at the end of the year.

Not going to happen, because there are only so many points to go around, and things will average out to some degree.

So these numbers aren't that useful right now.

 

[Orfieus]

Toronto is digging that hole deeper and deeper

 

[dubey]

I anticipated they would be in a playoff fight all year and, as of Nov 10th, nothing suggests that’ll change anytime soon.

Great work! Let your boss know about this!

 

[Advanced stats]

Toronto is digging that hole deeper and deeper

There is no hole.

It's November.