Proposal: Toronto- Carolina

[BobClarkesfrontteeth]

Because we want to also win now, win later, keep winning. Dundon seems to want to own a dynasty.

Getting Andersen is about winning now. Getting Askarov is about winning in 2024 and on.

From what we have seen of Dundon winning now is a very high priority and the time to sacrifice some of the "what if" future is on hand. They know they cannot win with their current tandem. They have given them 2 post seasons to prove otherwise. Waiting until 2024 for Askarov to become elite might be fools gold with the Flyers, Tampa(here now but with several strong young pieces), possibly the Leafs and the Rangers all forming strong young teams that look to be equal or better than the core being built in Carolina. I like Carolina's team right now for the next 2 seasons if they upgrade in net.

They might go sign a player like Holtby or Markstom but then it is even more reason to not draft Askarov. You don't draft him to let him ride the pine for 5 seasons.

Askarov is a step back for the Leafs from Anderson but the value of his ELC for three years in a flat cap world is of huge value to them.

 

[WreckingCrew]

From what we have seen of Dundon winning now is a very high priority and the time to sacrifice some of the "what if" future is on hand. They know they cannot win with their current tandem. They have given them 2 post seasons to prove otherwise. Waiting until 2024 for Askarov to become elite might be fools gold with the Flyers, Tampa(here now but with several strong young pieces), possibly the Leafs and the Rangers all forming strong young teams that look to be equal or better than the core being built in Carolina. I like Carolina's team right now for the next 2 seasons if they upgrade in net.

They might go sign a player like Holtby or Markstom but then it is even more reason to not draft Askarov. You don't draft him to let him ride the pine for 5 seasons.

Askarov is a step back for the Leafs from Anderson but the value of his ELC for three years in a flat cap world is of huge value to them.

So we go with Andersen who has proven what in the playoffs? Last year Mrazek/Mc-Ill-Hiney got us to ECF, this year the tandem got us through play-ins and kept us alive against Boston (mostly, other than the Reimer -> implosion game)...THEY weren't the reason we got ousted. Would I rather have Andersen over Mrazek or Reimer for next season? Sure. Is he a huge upgrade? Meh. If he had more than 1 year maybe...otherwise we roll our tandem next year and get him as a UFA for free?

 

[BobClarkesfrontteeth]

Geekie is just a name. Pick a random B prospect from your system then. I only used Geekie as an example as the Canes have 3 Center prospects besides Necas. I am assuming Suzuki is a non starter. Mattheos is farther away from the NHL than Geekie. Everyone gets hung up on names rather than the part that has been stated. B level prospect value = 3rd pick.

 

[Chrispy]

Again, if there's a need for a short-term upgrade there are similar or better ones available that will not cost assets in trade.

No reason to trade down in the first or give up a prospect the Canes like to get a mostly equivalent goalie to the current tandem.

 

[BobClarkesfrontteeth]

So we go with Andersen who has proven what in the playoffs? Last year Mrazek/Mc-Ill-Hiney got us to ECF, this year the tandem got us through play-ins and kept us alive against Boston (mostly, other than the Reimer -> implosion game)...THEY weren't the reason we got ousted. Would I rather have Andersen over Mrazek or Reimer? Sure. Is he a huge upgrade? Meh

Again not selling you on Andersen. I am a Flyers fan so don't care. But if the plan is to win its not happening with Reimer and Mrazek. LEt your window of opportunity close without a sniff of the finals.

Draft Askarov then sign Lerner or Holtby for 5 or 6 years and then when his ELC is up you can spend 14 million on goalies like the Habs.

As a Flyer fan I watched (and it was painful at times) how they left the number 1 job open for Hart while goaltending let us down. But we were in a far different window than the Canes are. You are not a rebuilding/Developing team. You are in the win it now zone and need to realize it.

 

[BobClarkesfrontteeth]

Again, if there's a need for a short-term upgrade there are similar or better ones available that will not cost assets in trade.

No reason to trade down in the first or give up a prospect the Canes like to get a mostly equivalent goalie to the current tandem.

Curious what sort term upgrade that is available that is better than Andersen and will not cost an asset? Sort term is 2 years or less.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Geekie is just a name. Pick a random B prospect from your system then. I only used Geekie as an example as the Canes have 3 Center prospects besides Necas. I am assuming Suzuki is a non starter. Mattheos is farther away from the NHL than Geekie. Everyone gets hung up on names rather than the part that has been stated. B level prospect value = 3rd pick.

"Just a name"...but Geekie (likely on the NHL roster next year), Suzuki (great prospect a few years away still), and Mattheos (he might be your B-level prospect) have drastically different values, even if you see them all as "B-level prospect" (it's called doing your research). But again, moot point if the main point is drafting Askarov and giving Canes 1 year of Anderson

 

[Fogelhund]

You think Toronto is paying too much here? You must be trolling

It's a challenging deal from the Leafs perspective. If Hamilton walks after a year, it's a terrible deal for the Leafs.

You'd want some ability to talk to Hamilton in advance, to talk extension. It's not that Toronto is paying too much, as much as it's just too much risk. You talk to Hamilton, and he agrees to extend, than certainly is a deal in principle that Toronto should have interest in. In all probability, they have to include RD such as Holl in the deal, to fill a hole left in moving Hamilton.

 

[seanlinden]

From what we have seen of Dundon winning now is a very high priority and the time to sacrifice some of the "what if" future is on hand. They know they cannot win with their current tandem. They have given them 2 post seasons to prove otherwise. Waiting until 2024 for Askarov to become elite might be fools gold with the Flyers, Tampa(here now but with several strong young pieces), possibly the Leafs and the Rangers all forming strong young teams that look to be equal or better than the core being built in Carolina. I like Carolina's team right now for the next 2 seasons if they upgrade in net.

They might go sign a player like Holtby or Markstom but then it is even more reason to not draft Askarov. You don't draft him to let him ride the pine for 5 seasons.

Askarov is a step back for the Leafs from Anderson but the value of his ELC for three years in a flat cap world is of huge value to them.

Drafting any goalie is something you do with the hope that it helps you in 5 years --not today. Askarov is no exception. Look no further than the 3 russians in the Canes division -- Ilya Samsonov, Ilya Sorokin and Igor Shesterkin. 2014 and 2015 draft picks, who've ranged from having a taste in a backup / 1B role for a single season, to 0 NA experience.

Even if a pick swap was entertained as part of an Andersen deal, I would hope from the Leafs perspective that it isn't to draft a goalie.

Could the Canes go out and sign Markstrom or Holtby? Yes, they certainly could... but both are fraught with challenges.

If a recent "down year" for a veteran goalie scares you, then there's a lot to be afraid of with Braden Holtby, who posted an abysmal .897 save percentage and 3.11GAA. Over the 2 seasons prior, Holtby wasn't bad (.907-.911, 2.99-2.82), but Andersen was better. Presumably Holtby will find somebody to give him over $5m with term... are the Canes the right team to be doing that?

Markstrom's numbers have been comparable to Andersen's over the past 3 years (when Markstrom became a #1 goalie). Markstrom's 3 year stat line is 163 GP, 160 GS, .914%, 2.74GAA versus Andersen at 178 GP, 178 GS, .915% 2.81GAA. Markstrom doesn't have the "down year risk"... but he also has absolutely no reason to leave Vancouver. He'll also likely be looking for a contract with term where the first number is a 7, and he's probably going to get it.

 

[GoldiFox]

Again not selling you on Andersen. I am a Flyers fan so don't care. But if the plan is to win its not happening with Reimer and Mrazek. LEt your window of opportunity close without a sniff of the finals.

Draft Askarov then sign Lerner or Holtby for 5 or 6 years and then when his ELC is up you can spend 14 million on goalies like the Habs.

As a Flyer fan I watched (and it was painful at times) how they left the number 1 job open for Hart while goaltending let us down. But we were in a far different window than the Canes are. You are not a rebuilding/Developing team. You are in the win it now zone and need to realize it.

Svechnikov is 19. Necas is 20. Aho is 22. Even Teravainen, Pesce, and Slavin are 25 or younger. Suzuki, Bokk, Bean, Rees, Puistola, etc. are in the pipeline. Carolina is absolutely a developing team right now. Their real window opens in 1-2 years when Aho/Svech/Necas have years of Playoff experience under their belt. All of Dallas, Tampa, NYI, and Vegas are showing how much experience matters.

 

[BobClarkesfrontteeth]

"Just a name"...but Geekie (likely on the NHL roster next year), Suzuki (great prospect a few years away still), and Mattheos (he might be your B-level prospect) have drastically different values, even if you see them all as "B-level prospect" (it's called doing your research). But again, moot point if the main point is drafting Askarov and giving Canes 1 year of Anderson

I actually did the home work and could have included Drury and Rees in the conversation but they are both further from the NHL than the 3 I named. As I said the Canes have a lot of Center prospects who all grade out as middle 6 forwards and have 4 nhl Centers that are pretty set for the next 2 years. Geekie's upside is that of a two way center secondary scorer. So a ceiling of a 40 point 3rd line center = 3rd round pick.

 

[Chrispy]

Curious what sort term upgrade that is available that is better than Andersen and will not cost an asset? Sort term is 2 years or less.

I already went through who I prefer earlier. Paying a premium for a rental is not a good strategy for Carolina right now.

And that cost for 1 year is why it's a bad idea. You can get 2 years for Keumper, who has been consistently better. You can sign Crawford for free, who has been better when healthy in front of a much worse team than Carolina. Lehner and Markstrom are clear upgrades as you point out, and would be signed through Carolina's short-term window. If Arizona will trade Raanta for less, I'd prefer Raanta to Andersen. If Rask became available, I'd go for Rask over Andersen. If Khudobin hits the market, I'd put him above Andersen for the short-term.

Plus, any UFA or lesser trade would allow Carolina to pick in the first round where they could also solve this problem long-term with Askarov. Nothing about giving up Carolina's 1st for Andersen makes sense.

Finally, as I've said already: Andersen isn't a clear-cut improvement on what Carolina has based on the last 2 years.

	18-19 GAA	18-19 SV%	19-20 GAA	19-20 SV%
Andersen	2.77	.917	2.85	.909
Mrazek	2.39	.914	2.65	.905
Reimer (CAR)			2.66	.914

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And keep in mind Carolina gave up the same number of HD chances as Toronto last season and the HDGA and HDSV% for both teams was similar last year. So the argument that Andersen would look better behind Carolina's defense also doesn't make sense when you look at the numbers.

Would I take a chance on Andersen as a cheap rental? Sure. For a 1st round pick? Absolutely not.

 

[seanlinden]

I would rather have most of those goalies as well, but the price difference between them and Andersen is significant.

Keumper - Rumoured price starts with a 1st.
Crawford - Most UFAs want term.
Lehner - Likely off the market for 5x5.
Markstrom - Will want 6m with term, I am guessing.
Raanta - Not sure I agree he is an upgrade on Andersen...
Rask - Will definitely cost a lot more.
Khudobin - Not sure he's an upgrade.

Andersen will cost you a 2nd+one of your goalies or a low level prospect, and you won't have the 3-5 year commitment the UFA goalies will have.

I don't want Andersen either, so I am not trying to dissuade you, but his cost and commitment will be significantly lower than those options.

I think there's probably some buyer beware amongst Phoenix goalies as well. It seems that no matter who goes into net for them, they play really well. When a GM is looking at investing in a goalie, he's going to ask himself -- how will his play translate to my team?

 

[BobClarkesfrontteeth]

I already went through who I prefer earlier. Paying a premium for a rental is not a good strategy for Carolina right now.

Not the statement you said. You said that there were Goalies available to the Canes that are available right now that would not cost assets. I asked you who they were. Stating the Canes should not trade for a rental is not answering that question it is deflecting.

So no you didn't go through this earlier.

 

[Chrispy]

Not the statement you said. You said that there were Goalies available to the Canes that are available right now that would not cost assets. I asked you who they were. Stating the Canes should not trade for a rental is not answering that question it is deflecting.

So no you didn't go through this earlier.

That post lists UFA examples:
Crawford
Khudobin
Markstrom or Lehner as longer-term solutions.

And none of this addresses the issue Andersen has not outperformed Mrazek and Reimer the past 2 years.

 

[Benhurd]

With the news of Reimer close to being dealt and they are very interested in Andersson, and with the Leafs looking for a top 4 rhd.

To Toronto-
Hamilton
13th overall

To Carolina-
Andersson
Nylander

leafs trade
2020 1st, johnsson (3.4 million)

Anaheim trades
Manson 4.1 million

leafs sign Hamonic
3years. 3.5 per

sign Spezza to a league minimum and start the year off. Could possibly move Kerfoot to free up some space if needed

 

[Big Muddy]

With the news of Reimer close to being dealt and they are very interested in Andersson, and with the Leafs looking for a top 4 rhd.

To Toronto-
Hamilton
13th overall

To Carolina-
Andersson
Nylander

Just curious as to the rationale behind the proposed trade.

Is it:

a. Hamilton = Nylander; and,

b. Andersen = 13th?

 

[Big Muddy]

yep thats a hell no from the leafs too

Nylander and Freddie for 1 year of Hamilton and a pick? nah

Doesn't Freddie just have 1 more year on his contract as well?

 

[Big Muddy]

You start with Andersen to Carolina, good goalie, they need a goalie, makes $1M in salary, hey they're cash conscious and that's probably the best value dollars:results for this next season, now we're cooking with gas

And then you staple Hamilton and Nylander to it

Agreed. These multi-player deals are often tilted & unbalanced & get away from the primary needs of the involved parties.

 

[BobClarkesfrontteeth]

That post lists UFA examples:
Crawford
Khudobin
Markstrom or Lehner as longer-term solutions.

And none of this addresses the issue Andersen has not outperformed Mrazek and Reimer the past 2 years.[/QU

Markstrom is the only clear cut example of an upgrade but he is going to cost you 6 to 7 for 7 years. Not sure that's better than giving up a second, B prospects and a switch of draft picks.

Crawford's injuries have made him completely unreliable.
Khudobin his playoff run aside is a back up.
Lehner is signing with Vegas.

As for Andersen not outpreforming the dynamic duo that is a question for your GM.
He is the one rumoured to want Andersen

 

[mydnyte]

Must not value Andersen if you're gonna spell his name wrong but asking for 13th overall for him seems way too high. Canes likely draft Askarov with the pick.

Who plays net for the Leafs after this deal?
Campbell gonna play 50~ games?

I'd pick him also, but, he wont be ready for at least 3 years, so, still need a goalie

 

[Big Muddy]

Not the statement you said. You said that there were Goalies available to the Canes that are available right now that would not cost assets. I asked you who they were. Stating the Canes should not trade for a rental is not answering that question it is deflecting.

So no you didn't go through this earlier.

Could always just go to CapFriendly, no .....?

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Avilaj07]

Just curious as to the rationale behind the proposed trade.

Is it:

a. Hamilton = Nylander; and,

b. Andersen = 13th?

How about the fact that Nylander has a remaining 4 years left on his contract which he's only owed 6 mil in cash. Anderson is only owed 1 million in cash this year and then a ufa, Hamilton is owed 6 million in cash this year and then Ufa. So for an additional million in cash, Carolina receives a top line winger and a starting goalie while giving up their second pairing rhd and the 13th overall pick.

 

[dogbazinho]

Awful as expected.

 

[BobClarkesfrontteeth]

Could always just go to CapFriendly, no .....?

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

He stated goalies that were better ( missed that part in my reply) than Andersen and would cost no assets.
Only two goalies in that category and one is most likely already signed with his team and the other is a 7 year 6 to 7 million a year contract. Not sure that qualifies as free.

As for the argument that Andersen hasn't won anything. Then go after Murray, Holtby or Crawford as that is your measure of a better goalie and see how far that gets you.