Proposal: Toronto-Calgary

[Randy Randerson]

I think he's referring to the bottom 4 stats on the comparison chart which show Stone played in much harder circumstances than Carrick.

I didn't get that from his post when I went back and re-read

also think that "much harder" is an exaggeration, it looks like very similar circumstances other than he was in his own end when the puck dropped more often. I think alot of people equate zone starts to where a player is for the majority of his time on ice, but forget than a large portion of shifts start on the fly and that the zone gets cleared often during the course of a shift and the majority of that same d-zone start shift may be spent in the offensive zone. Anyway, I agree that Stone had it tougher than Carrick, but Stone was very bad in his usage where Carrick was quite good in his, so I don't see the "upgrade" by switching to a guy who we know can't handle more difficult 3rd pairing duties from a guy who definitely can handle less difficult 3rd pairing duties

btw - these charts are made by which percentile on the bell curve of NHL players that the subject player falls into in each category, not by the comparison of their stats to eachother, so they end up looking very exaggerated. Carrick DZs% was 41.2% where Stones was 49.1%, it wasn't 1/4 of Stone's like the chart might suggest, Carrick fell into the 12th percentile and Stone fell into the 46th. Data visualization is a lot less effective when the differences are minute, so the bell curve is used to make them larger and give them context

 

[InfinityIggy]

That’s actually not a bad offer. I’d still rather see what Rittich and Gillies can do, but it’s interesting. Gives us a bit of cap relief as well.

 

[PsYcNeT]

Zone starts does not explain why Stone's numbers are mostly terrible. His usage isn't that tough. If you think their difference in zone starts is the difference between getting slaughtered and great shot metrics, you're putting far, far too much weight on them.

Stone's numbers are terrible because he's a 3rd pairing defenseman (duh) but if you can't see why 12% D-Zone Starts isn't hilariously sheltered I don't know what to tell you.

It's just a dumb comparison altogether.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Stone's numbers are terrible because he's a 3rd pairing defenseman (duh) but if you can't see why 12% D-Zone Starts isn't hilariously sheltered I don't know what to tell you.

It's just a dumb comparison altogether.

Funny you act condescendingly towards me while seemingly not understanding the chart. That doesn't say he had 12% D-Zone starts. It puts him him in the 12th percentile for D-Zone starts.

Carrick can be sheltered and still be a better player. Every player with tough usage is not automatically better than every sheltered player and again, Stone's usage is not that tough. The difference between the 46th percentile and 12th percentile is not so gargantuan as to render every other metric meaningless. As @Randy Randerson pointed out, Carrick DZs% was 41.2% where Stones was 49.1%. I presented the chart without comment and allowed people to draw their own conclusions. If you think the D-Zone start disparity is so impactful as to make every other number useless, that's your own poor assessment.

 

[DFF]

The Leafs defense is great. They should not do anything about it. Just try the lottery again. It may work this time.

And here for the people that rely solely on stats

 

[HoweHullOrr]

im sure calgary could do better then a maybe back up goalie and a 7th for a 3rd pairing dman.

I'm willing to discuss. I probably wouldn't give too much more for Stone. He is not the most attractive target, but he is not terrible and could make some sense.

OK Kyle.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

So you like posting charts without knowing what they show? (Hint: Carrick is intensely sheltered. Look at his D-zone starts)

Hint: Stone is insanely sheltered too. Look at his QoC. The biggest difference is that Carrick doesn't get slaughtered, and it's not because of zone starts. You're far too condescending for the person who really doesn't understand what that chart means

 

[Ciao]

Good reasons on both sides not to do this.

Flames think a third-pair defenceman -- with retention -- is worth more than a waivers-level goalie and seventh-round pick. No argument here.

From the Leafs side, we have a lot of young defenceman with more upside. I would like to see what Zaitsev, Carrick, Ozhiganov (sp?), Holl, Liljegren etc could do on the right side, not to mention Borgman, Rosen etc on the left. Throwing another low-level veteran D into the mix doesn't help and just muddies the waters. Too much opportunity cost, even if Stone were free.

 

[StumpyTown]

If Calgary wants a decent backup they could probably just sign Steve Mason. The risk is high, but the price tag may be under 2. At under 2, Mason would be a steal as a backup and it wouldn't cost the Flames a single thing as far as assets go.

For the Leafs, it is just downright scary when Hainsey is part of your top pairing. He is a serviceable guy who can fill a regular 3rd pairing role with some fill in work on the 2nd. But 1st pairing, that is terrifying.

 

[Randy Randerson]

If Calgary wants a decent backup they could probably just sign Steve Mason. The risk is high, but the price tag may be under 2. At under 2, Mason would be a steal as a backup and it wouldn't cost the Flames a single thing as far as assets go.

For the Leafs, it is just downright scary when Hainsey is part of your top pairing. He is a serviceable guy who can fill a regular 3rd pairing role with some fill in work on the 2nd. But 1st pairing, that is terrifying.

that's definitely the real problem for the Leafs, we likely have too many 2nd pairing and 3rd pairing defensemen as it is, so finding a partner for Rielly is the trade we should really be concentrating on. There's also not much pressure to do anything right now, this team coasted to the playoffs last year with the same defensive concerns and I think most people would be of the opinion that replacing JVR&Bozak with Tavares and a system replacement is an upgrade, so we should be good to make the playoffs as is.

I also think that the Leafs D being atrocious is very overstated, we're missing one important piece but I think the common perception is that the whole D needs an overhaul which just isn't the case

at the TDL we can either find a bandaid solution in a guy that's not a true top pairing defenseman but can handle that level of competition like Tanev/Petry, or maybe Liljegren has a breakout AHL year and turns himself into a top 10 prospect by then and he either becomes good enough to be the centerpiece of a deal for a guy who is more of a long term solution or we decide to just wait for Liljegren to be ready

 

[CraigsList]

Question for the OP

Why?

 

[The Gnome]

If Calgary wants a decent backup they could probably just sign Steve Mason. The risk is high, but the price tag may be under 2. At under 2, Mason would be a steal as a backup and it wouldn't cost the Flames a single thing as far as assets go.

For the Leafs, it is just downright scary when Hainsey is part of your top pairing. He is a serviceable guy who can fill a regular 3rd pairing role with some fill in work on the 2nd. But 1st pairing, that is terrifying.

This. Flames don't need another goalie project, we need a legit backup now as our roster looks playoff bound on paper. Wouldn't mind offloading Stone's contract, but the Brouwer buyout allows us to be fine cap wise and there is nothing wrong with the depth on D that Stone provides when injuries happen. He's a solid #5 dman, nothing special, nothing that is a glaring weakness in his game, and he has shown well when thrust into a top 4 role.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

that's definitely the real problem for the Leafs, we likely have too many 2nd pairing and 3rd pairing defensemen as it is, so finding a partner for Rielly is the trade we should really be concentrating on. There's also not much pressure to do anything right now, this team coasted to the playoffs last year with the same defensive concerns and I think most people would be of the opinion that replacing JVR&Bozak with Tavares and a system replacement is an upgrade, so we should be good to make the playoffs as is.

I also think that the Leafs D being atrocious is very overstated, we're missing one important piece but I think the common perception is that the whole D needs an overhaul which just isn't the case

at the TDL we can either find a bandaid solution in a guy that's not a true top pairing defenseman but can handle that level of competition like Tanev/Petry, or maybe Liljegren has a breakout AHL year and turns himself into a top 10 prospect by then and he either becomes good enough to be the centerpiece of a deal for a guy who is more of a long term solution or we decide to just wait for Liljegren to be ready

Completely agree. The D issues are very overblown.

Add in:

-Most of the forwards who play a lot are young and should be even better at supporting the D.

-Dermott made a noticeable impact but only played 37 games. He will continue to get better.

-Zaitsev had an injury plagued season but will still only be 27 this upcoming season and should be better.

-Rielly is 24 and just starting to hit his prime. He can certainly play more than the 21:36 he played last season.

-There are multiple options to fill the 3rd pairing spot Polak played: Carrick, Borgman, Ozhiganov and even potentially Liljegren are candidates.

 

[Mobiandi]

I like Pickard. I would do this if Rittich didn't have to clear waivers to be sent down

 

[Danny1237]

Stone is a pure 3rd pairing guy, which isn't really what will help the Leafs. Realistically, if the D they get back isn't young, or able to be a stop gap in the top 4, they won't really help.

The Leafs would be better served adding significantly to the package to try and get a guy like R. Andersson out of Calgary, rather than help Calgary make room for him. It would cost a lot more than Pickard, but Andersson can at least create competition for top 4 minutes, is on an ELC still, and has upside to be a very solid top 4 D.

 

[Deam78]

Good deal.

 

[Danny1237]

that's definitely the real problem for the Leafs, we likely have too many 2nd pairing and 3rd pairing defensemen as it is, so finding a partner for Rielly is the trade we should really be concentrating on. There's also not much pressure to do anything right now, this team coasted to the playoffs last year with the same defensive concerns and I think most people would be of the opinion that replacing JVR&Bozak with Tavares and a system replacement is an upgrade, so we should be good to make the playoffs as is.

I also think that the Leafs D being atrocious is very overstated, we're missing one important piece but I think the common perception is that the whole D needs an overhaul which just isn't the case

at the TDL we can either find a bandaid solution in a guy that's not a true top pairing defenseman but can handle that level of competition like Tanev/Petry, or maybe Liljegren has a breakout AHL year and turns himself into a top 10 prospect by then and he either becomes good enough to be the centerpiece of a deal for a guy who is more of a long term solution or we decide to just wait for Liljegren to be ready

I would agree with what you are saying. I think the guy the Leafs would like the most probably isn't available. I do think if they get an opportunity to grab another RHD prospect, they should do it, even if he isn't a shoe in to play with Rielly right away.

The Leafs D has talent, and there is even some depth, but ideally, they should be looking at ways of making sure teams can't simply target the right side. When your team can only breakout on one side, it makes it easier to design an aggressive forecheck.

 

[Danny1237]

From Calgary's point of view, Pickard is a nice to have, but if he was a shoe in for the back up role, he will be placed on waivers, so unless you view Stone as negative value, why not wait until then?

Pickard would have more value in a trade after clearing waivers, as more teams will be interested in adding him as a 3rd string guy.

 

[Notsince67]

Stone's skills do not fit into the leafs system. Not a guy who can exit the Dzone. There are enough of these kinds of Dmen on the Leafs. A guy like this would just continue the stretch passes that are high risk

 

[Randy Randerson]

I would agree with what you are saying. I think the guy the Leafs would like the most probably isn't available. I do think if they get an opportunity to grab another RHD prospect, they should do it, even if he isn't a shoe in to play with Rielly right away.

The Leafs D has talent, and there is even some depth, but ideally, they should be looking at ways of making sure teams can't simply target the right side. When your team can only breakout on one side, it makes it easier to design an aggressive forecheck.

I think the left side is actually very strong, and would still be strong if we end up dealing Gardiner. I'm putting some faith in Dermott for sure, but he was dominant against 3rd pairing competition for long enough to make it believable last year and Borgman was more than passable as a 3rd pairing guy for a half season too, so I'm really not concerned with the left side and I don't think that strengthening it changes how we break out of the right side.

I do think we have a lot of hopes attached to Liljegren, but we have 3 RHD prospects in our top 10 with Durzi and Rasanen now as well, so I think Shanahan&co are going to keep throwing draft picks that way until someone pans out

with the addition of Tavares I think that we'll spend less time defending too, we have 3 strong possession lines so I want to see how the team defense comes together, plus I think that Zaitsev will be better this year than last. Ultimately I think this team should coast to the playoffs, so if the right guy isn't available yet I think we can afford to wait at least until the TDL to see if the landscape changes

 

[Danny1237]

I think the left side is actually very strong, and would still be strong if we end up dealing Gardiner. I'm putting some faith in Dermott for sure, but he was dominant against 3rd pairing competition for long enough to make it believable last year and Borgman was more than passable as a 3rd pairing guy for a half season too, so I'm really not concerned with the left side and I don't think that strengthening it changes how we break out of the right side.

I do think we have a lot of hopes attached to Liljegren, but we have 3 RHD prospects in our top 10 with Durzi and Rasanen now as well, so I think Shanahan&co are going to keep throwing draft picks that way until someone pans out

with the addition of Tavares I think that we'll spend less time defending too, we have 3 strong possession lines so I want to see how the team defense comes together, plus I think that Zaitsev will be better this year than last. Ultimately I think this team should coast to the playoffs, so if the right guy isn't available yet I think we can afford to wait at least until the TDL to see if the landscape changes

I wasn't suggesting the Leafs needed to strengthen their left side, in fact I was saying much of what you said. The problem is their RHD is so weak, and contains nobody who can break the puck out reliably, that teams can pressure the Left side and force the leafs to try and break out from their weak side. This was true of all 3 pairings, so from a strategy point of view, it makes it easier to execute.

Zaitsev is likely to bounce back, and I think the 3rd pairing will be better regardless of who gets those minutes, but personally I think Zaitsev is still a weak top 4 guy overall. He just thinks the game far too slowly to use his skill set effectively. He is not great at moving the puck, and he just seems to hesitate a ton. At first I hoped this was just an adjustment to the difference in ice size, but it has not improved at all.

The nice thing about Defense being the weakness is that it is far easier to find undervalued D late in drafts, or guys that slip through the cracks of their current NHL teams. Given that Dubas has almost made this his calling card with the Greyhounds and Marlies, I think Toronto is positioned well for the long term, and that Dubas has earned the right to ask for patience.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I wasn't suggesting the Leafs needed to strengthen their left side, in fact I was saying much of what you said. The problem is their RHD is so weak, and contains nobody who can break the puck out reliably, that teams can pressure the Left side and force the leafs to try and break out from their weak side. This was true of all 3 pairings, so from a strategy point of view, it makes it easier to execute.

Zaitsev is likely to bounce back, and I think the 3rd pairing will be better regardless of who gets those minutes, but personally I think Zaitsev is still a weak top 4 guy overall. He just thinks the game far too slowly to use his skill set effectively. He is not great at moving the puck, and he just seems to hesitate a ton. At first I hoped this was just an adjustment to the difference in ice size, but it has not improved at all.

The nice thing about Defense being the weakness is that it is far easier to find undervalued D late in drafts, or guys that slip through the cracks of their current NHL teams. Given that Dubas has almost made this his calling card with the Greyhounds and Marlies, I think Toronto is positioned well for the long term, and that Dubas has earned the right to ask for patience.

I think the only effective strategy for breaking the puck out of the right side is strengthening the right side though, that or improvement in team possession which I think has been addressed as it is

I did see the sluggishness in Zaitsev's decision making last year that you're talking about, but I didn't see that at all in the first year and with the concussion and mega flu he had this year I can see there being some influence on his processing speed in the short term, so I think he'll balance out as a 2nd pairing guy if he stays healthy. He plays simpler than guys like Gardiner and usually takes the first option that he sees, sometimes missing a better one if he were to hold onto the puck but I'll accept that as it also doesn't risk getting caught trying to wait for a better option and losing the puck in the process

I agree on the draft, but that takes a while too. I think we're taking those swings and will continue to until we find someone...would be ideal if Liljegren turns out though

 

[Bounces R Way]

Michael Stone has averaged over 19 minutes of ice time over his career. He had a 36 point year a couple years ago. He's 28 years old. Just because he's been used like a bottom pairing defenseman the last couple years doesn't mean that's all he's good for. He has bad advanced stats largely because he's been on the ice with the Flames bottom 6, which was awful last year. I still wouldn't mind moving him as I like Andersson more but I don't really think they need to especially after the Hamilton trade considering the RHD depth now looks like Hamonic-Stone-Andersson

A 7th and Pickard is basically nothing. Think you could do a lot better at the deadline or the draft if a team was looking for depth D. Lots of comparable guys have been traded for 3rd or 4th rd picks in the last several years.

 

[HighLifeMan]

No thanks, Stone may struggle at times at even strength due to his inability at times to break the puck out, but the guy knows how to defend.

He was a major reason as to why Calgary's penalty kill was 7th best in the league last season.

He played his role and contributed effectively given the circumstances (playing minutes with a rookie and absolutely horrible forward depth). With Calgary adding some much needed depth this offseason it will help turn Stone's "poor shot metrics" around.

 

[Danny1237]

I think the only effective strategy for breaking the puck out of the right side is strengthening the right side though, that or improvement in team possession which I think has been addressed as it is

I did see the sluggishness in Zaitsev's decision making last year that you're talking about, but I didn't see that at all in the first year and with the concussion and mega flu he had this year I can see there being some influence on his processing speed in the short term, so I think he'll balance out as a 2nd pairing guy if he stays healthy. He plays simpler than guys like Gardiner and usually takes the first option that he sees, sometimes missing a better one if he were to hold onto the puck but I'll accept that as it also doesn't risk getting caught trying to wait for a better option and losing the puck in the process

I agree on the draft, but that takes a while too. I think we're taking those swings and will continue to until we find someone...would be ideal if Liljegren turns out though

Yeah, I wasn't a fan of Zaitsev's play in his first season either, but I do think in a 2nd pair role where there is a first pair that soaks up the tougher minutes, he could be fine. I just think he needs someone to carry him to be good, and I think he gets paid as a D that should be carrying a 2nd pair. Again, not the end of the world, just that I think Toronto needs to be very efficient in it's spending on D going forward, and I don't think Zaitsev represents efficient spending. Either way, I think for this year, he probably has value in his bounce back potential as getting two guys to play the right side would be a very tall order.

I agree that they need someone on the right side to fix their issues breaking out on that side, so unless they feel like someone on the left can play the right, they need a new body in. I don't think they need to be a star, grabbing an underrated RHD would be great. I wish they had grabbed Demers when Florida was offering him up as he is very underrated and makes less than $4M with the money help back on his deal.

I think the Leafs have more time than most believe and don't need to rush into anything if there isn't a good option available. They are one of the better teams in the East as is, the trade deadline will shake some things use, and I really don't think it would be that terrible to see exactly what they have and look to address in the next off season.