TSN: Toronto’s salary cap balancing act, through the eyes of McDavid, Toews and Tavares

[leafsfan1234]

Watching Leafs/Sabres last night Sportsnet said Nylander’s agent was looking at Draisaitl’s contract as a comparison.

That’s gotta scare the crap out of the Leafs brass. They felt that Edmonton signing McDavid first blotted Leon’s contract and they want to avoid that. Therefore, they want to get Nylander locked up long term before Matthews gets 12/12.5m. However, if Nylander gets 8 million per, doesn’t that create problems when Marner’s deal comes up? He’s gonna want more.

The Leafs seem like they’ll have issues unless they move one of their wingers.

Leafs brass aren't concerned in the slightest, Nylander could sit out half the season and it wouldn't matter with the forward depth that we have. He's going to sign a contract similar to his actual comparables (Ehlers, Larkin, & Pastrnak) or he will keep sitting, it's as simple as that.

 

[easton117]

Leafs brass aren't concerned in the slightest, Nylander could sit out half the season and it wouldn't matter with the forward depth that we have. He's going to sign a contract similar to his actual comparables (Ehlers, Larkin, & Pastrnak) or he will keep sitting, it's as simple as that.

Careful! This type of thinking gets tossed out the window the second the injury parade followed by a losing streak starts.

But you are right about the comparables. Problem is on teams like Toronto with large signings like Tavares, your internal cap comparisons is way off compared to almost every other team.

Is Nylander a 5 or 6 million dollar less of a player than Tavares? I don’t know. But I doubt he or his agent thinks so.

It’ll be interesting to see how it all turns out

 

[LeafsNation75]

Watching Leafs/Sabres last night Sportsnet said Nylander’s agent was looking at Draisaitl’s contract as a comparison.

That’s gotta scare the crap out of the Leafs brass. They felt that Edmonton signing McDavid first blotted Leon’s contract and they want to avoid that. Therefore, they want to get Nylander locked up long term before Matthews gets 12/12.5m. However, if Nylander gets 8 million per, doesn’t that create problems when Marner’s deal comes up? He’s gonna want more.

The Leafs seem like they’ll have issues unless they move one of their wingers.

There is no chance Nylander signs for anything similar to what Draisaitl’s contract was.

 

[TOGuy14]

Careful! This type of thinking gets tossed out the window the second the injury parade followed by a losing streak starts.

But you are right about the comparables. Problem is on teams like Toronto with large signings like Tavares, your internal cap comparisons is way off compared to almost every other team.

Is Nylander a 5 or 6 million dollar less of a player than Tavares? I don’t know. But I doubt he or his agent thinks so.

It’ll be interesting to see how it all turns out

If that's the case his agent should read the CBA to learn what RFA vs UFA means.

 

[bionic]

Careful! This type of thinking gets tossed out the window the second the injury parade followed by a losing streak starts.

But you are right about the comparables. Problem is on teams like Toronto with large signings like Tavares, your internal cap comparisons is way off compared to almost every other team.

Is Nylander a 5 or 6 million dollar less of a player than Tavares? I don’t know. But I doubt he or his agent thinks so.

It’ll be interesting to see how it all turns out

If they want to compare themselves to Tavare s and what he signed for mabye they should wait 7 years until free agency like Tavares did.

 

[easton117]

If that's the case his agent should read the CBA to learn what RFA vs UFA means.

I don’t think agents give a flying you know what about rfa to ufa anymore and it’s the teams fault. Not Toronto specifically. But you can’t pick and choose who you decide to pay on potential and who you decide to pay on what they’ve done in the past.

I see that argued here a lot. It’s one or the other. Especially if teams are trying to buy up ufa years.

That said. I think teams are nuts what they pay rfa’s now. There’s a very short list of players, wingers especially, I’d give 7 million to at 22 or 23 years old.

 

[nhlfan9191]

Oh for sure. That's why it's so laughable when people try to say the Leafs will be in "cap hell" soon. It's just wishful thinking on their part.

3-4 players taking up almost half your cap would be “cap hell” tho.

 

[Holymakinaw]

3-4 players taking up almost half your cap would be “cap hell” tho.

Not when those 3-4 are all elite players.

"Cap hell" is when that kind of money is tied up in older, fading players like Shea Weber and Carey Price.

When they're all budding Superstars and are 21-22 years old........it's called "One Helluva Core".

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Marner will have a big season next year playing on Tavares line and will ask for 10 mil
Matthews should easily get at least 11 mil
Tavares is paid 11 mil

32 mil on 3 players is an absurd amount

Nylander re-signs for 7+ mil
So about half the cap would be spent on 4 players

Leafs might have some luck if those players are willing to take a pay cut, but considering neither Matthews nor Marner want to re-sign now since they believe they can have an even better season this year, taking into account that Nylander is still not re-signed because he wants more money and keeping in mind that Tavares signed a contract, which made him the 2nd highest paid player in the league, it is very unlikely.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Marner will have a big season next year playing on Tavares line and will ask for 10 mil
Matthews should easily get at least 11 mil
Tavares is paid 11 mil

32 mil on 3 players is an absurd amount

Nylander re-signs for 7+ mil
So about half the cap would be spent on 4 players

Leafs might have some luck if those players are willing to take a pay cut, but considering neither Matthews nor Marner want to re-sign now since they believe they can have an even better season this year, taking into account that Nylander is still not re-signed because he wants more money and keeping in mind that Tavares signed a contract, which made him the 2nd highest paid player in the league, it is very unlikely.

LOL. What a load of nonsense this all is.

Pittsburgh has 33 million tied up in their top 4 guys, on contracts signed some years ago. Chicago has 33 million tied up in their top 4 guys. Same with Washington. But that was years ago, when the cap was lower. Now it is what it is.

Still........You win Cups that way, provided that money is tied up in ELITE talent.......which the Leafs have in spades.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Marner will have a big season next year playing on Tavares line and will ask for 10 mil
Matthews should easily get at least 11 mil
Tavares is paid 11 mil

32 mil on 3 players is an absurd amount

Nylander re-signs for 7+ mil
So about half the cap would be spent on 4 players

Leafs might have some luck if those players are willing to take a pay cut, but considering neither Matthews nor Marner want to re-sign now since they believe they can have an even better season this year, taking into account that Nylander is still not re-signed because he wants more money and keeping in mind that Tavares signed a contract, which made him the 2nd highest paid player in the league, it is very unlikely.

spending money on elite talent is fine. Spending money on lesser talent while being a bad team is where you run into trouble

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

LOL. What a load of nonsense this all is.

Pittsburgh has 33 million tied up in their top 4 guys, on contracts signed some years ago. Chicago has 33 million tied up in their top 4 guys. Same with Washington. But that was years ago, when the cap was lower. Now it is what it is.

Still........You win Cups that way, provided that money is tied up in ELITE talent.......which the Leafs have in spades.

Pens have 32.25 mil on 4 players. Leafs are likely to have the same amount on 3 players. That makes a huge difference... Not to mention pens top 3 players are way better than the leafs top 3.

Chicago? You realize they did not have any playoff success since they gave kane, toews and seabrook those big contracts? lol

Washington? Same point as the pens.

You don't win the cup with just elite talent. You win the cup if you have elite talent and depth. Leafs won't have much depth once their big 4 are all signed to big contracts.

 

[tmlfan98]

Looking at the last 3 different teams to win the cup (Hawks, Pens, Caps):

Pittsburgh's 4 biggest contracts combined to make 32.25M with a 71.4M cap (45%)

Washington's 4 biggest contracts combined to make 30.1M with a 75M cap (40%)

Chicago's 4 biggest contracts combined to make 24.5M with a 69M cap (36%)

As long as the Leafs' 4 biggest contracts combine to make up 36-45% of the cap, they should have a comfortable amount to spend on depth. I'd expect the cap to increase by around 5M again next year to around 85M. 45% of a 85M cap is 38.25M.

Nylander should make around 6-7 (7 being worst case scenario as his career numbers don't make a good case for more than 7). Tavares makes 11.

That leaves 20.25M for Matthews and Marner. Matthews will make up to 11.75x8 (AAV is between Tavares and McDavid). That leaves 8.5 for Marner.

Laine is reportedly asking for 11. That will probably come down to around 10-10.5 (similar to Eichel), but it could go even lower. Whatever Laine ends up getting, Marner guaranteed will make less than that. So for those of you saying Marner gets 10, it's just not gonna happen. He will most likely end up in the 8-9 range. So even if every one of the Leafs' big 3 get what the numbers suggest they deserve, that would only leave them with a potential problem next season.

When the cap keeps increasing well past 85M starting in 2019-20, the big 4 contracts are only gonna look better. The Leafs will be fine.

 

[LeafsNation75]

LOL. What a load of nonsense this all is.

Pittsburgh has 33 million tied up in their top 4 guys, on contracts signed some years ago. Chicago has 33 million tied up in their top 4 guys. Same with Washington. But that was years ago, when the cap was lower. Now it is what it is.

Still........You win Cups that way, provided that money is tied up in ELITE talent.......which the Leafs have in spades.

It drives me crazy when people talk like the Leafs can not afford their top players, yet in the examples of those teams you mentioned proves it can be done. Also one other team you forgot who has been able to re-sign their core players is Tampa Bay.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Marner will have a big season next year playing on Tavares line and will ask for 10 mil
Matthews should easily get at least 11 mil
Tavares is paid 11 mil

32 mil on 3 players is an absurd amount

Nylander re-signs for 7+ mil
So about half the cap would be spent on 4 players

You said " He will ask for 10". So? Will he get them from the Leafs....or any other team.? Just recently Hart winner McDavid got 12.5m off his ELC and an overpaid Draisaitl got 8.5m off his ELC. Eichel got 10m.
I just think it absurd to think all good players coming off their ELC are going to get top dollar. Unless there is an offer sheet coming, what leverage do all these first time RFAs. have?
It looks like the Leafs might have to spend 37m on their top 4 max, which is 44%
Kings spend 33m on their top 4
Lottery team Habs spend 29m, Out Hawks 32m, Out of playoff Oilers. 33m this year. So the Leafs are hardly unique in being top heavy with their cap.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

It drives me crazy when people talk like the Leafs can not afford their top players, yet in the examples of those teams you mentioned proves it can be done. Also one other team you forgot who has been able to re-sign their core players is Tampa Bay.

I don't think people realize that the Leafs got Tavares for cheaper than Bozak + JvR. bringing those guys back for those prices would have actually screwed the Leafs a lot more than bringing in another elite talent

 

[Holymakinaw]

Pens have 32.25 mil on 4 players. Leafs are likely to have the same amount on 3 players. That makes a huge difference... Not to mention pens top 3 players are way better than the leafs top 3.

Chicago? You realize they did not have any playoff success since they gave kane, toews and seabrook those big contracts? lol

Washington? Same point as the pens.

You don't win the cup with just elite talent. You win the cup if you have elite talent and depth. Leafs won't have much depth once their big 4 are all signed to big contracts.

Once again..........their contracts were signed YEARS ago, when the cap was lower. The Leafs are just getting into signing theirs now. The percentage of cap being used is pretty much the SAME.

And the Leafs do indeed have elite talent and depth. They have a crapload of depth.

Yay!

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Once again..........their contracts were signed YEARS ago, when the cap was lower. The Leafs are just getting into signing theirs now. The percentage of cap being used is pretty much the SAME.

And the Leafs do indeed have elite talent and depth. They have a crapload of depth.

Yay!

Their contract were signed years ago, but they only won now when the cap is much higher and their contract look like steals.
The equivalent could maybe be the leafs in 6 years, but that is still in a long time.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Their contract were signed years ago, but they only won now when the cap is much higher and their contract look like steals.
The equivalent could maybe be the leafs in 6 years, but that is still in a long time.

LOL. Nonsense.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Marner will have a big season next year playing on Tavares line and will ask for 10 mil
Matthews should easily get at least 11 mil
Tavares is paid 11 mil

32 mil on 3 players is an absurd amount

Nylander re-signs for 7+ mil
So about half the cap would be spent on 4 players

Leafs might have some luck if those players are willing to take a pay cut, but considering neither Matthews nor Marner want to re-sign now since they believe they can have an even better season this year, taking into account that Nylander is still not re-signed because he wants more money and keeping in mind that Tavares signed a contract, which made him the 2nd highest paid player in the league, it is very unlikely.

Laugh now, cry later. If Matthews gets 11, Hughes will get 12, Lafreniere will get 13 and so on. Better to pay Tavares 11 than JVR and Bozak 12.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

It was Brendan Shanahan who had to get approval from MLSE to start their rebuild in 2015 and that means getting approval from both Bell and Rogers. So in the case you are wrong with that opinion.

what?

 

[LeafsNation75]

what?

Prior to the Leafs rebuild which started when they traded Phil Kessel on July 1, 2015. Brendan Shanahan needed to get approval from the Maple Leafs Sports & Entertainment (MLSE) Board of Directors to get approval so he could start rebuilding the team to what we are seeing today.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I don't think people realize that the Leafs got Tavares for cheaper than Bozak + JvR. bringing those guys back for those prices would have actually screwed the Leafs a lot more than bringing in another elite talent

I also think that re-signing JVR was always going to be a long shot even if they wanted to bring him back since they had signed Patrick Marleau 1 year earlier. I remember Bob McKenzie had speculated that whatever money Marleau got meant there would not be anything left for JVR.

 

[supsens]

Not when those 3-4 are all elite players.

"Cap hell" is when that kind of money is tied up in older, fading players like Shea Weber and Carey Price.

When they're all budding Superstars and are 21-22 years old........it's called "One Helluva Core".

The average money per player broken down even is about 4 mil per player.
If someone makes 11, two guys need to be paid 1 or less and a third player only gets 3. add another 11 for one guy and you now need two more at 1 mill and another at 3.
Give someone else 8 and now you need six guys making 1.
You can run into cap hell extreamly fast.

Lucic and someone else making 10 can be covered by paying some 2 million. Bad contracs are a pain, large contracs gut the team

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

Prior to the Leafs rebuild which started when they traded Phil Kessel on July 1, 2015. Brendan Shanahan needed to get approval from the Maple Leafs Sports & Entertainment (MLSE) Board of Directors to get approval so he could start rebuilding the team to what we are seeing today.

and how does that effect the public backlash against the media ownership if the team now ships out the kids before they even have a chance to win a playoff round? im not sure you understood a word I said... but you make my case for me

this was an exceptional change in mapleleaf management... instead of promising the fans we will try to make the playoffs this ownership group said we will suck a few years... draft some kids with high picks... and THEN WE WILL WIN

so that ship sailed... now they got the kids... now they MUST KEEP THE KIDS

this is a market denied a cup win for 50 years now. if they tell the fans they are going lose marner because he wants 9 mill or lose Matthews because he wants 11... the fans are going to argue, but Matthews is just as good as McDavid... marner is better than draisaitl… SIGN THESE KIDS!!!

the amount of money Toronto can generate if they have the fans support is staggering... and if they lose the fan support it will be extremely significant

that's my point
that's what I said in my original post

this ISNT only about hockey... this is very much about business and a PO management