Confirmed with Link: [TOR/STL] TOR trades 25 (Dominik Bokk) to STL for 29 (Rasmus Sandin) + 76 (Semyon Der-Arguchintsev)

Kiwi

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Straight line speed and explosiveness is easier to fix, provided its a strength issue. Fixing edgework and stride is way harder, as they are reworking motions you already have ingrained and come natural to you.

So if your making a calculated risk on prospects with flaws did what we do going IQ, puck moving, lateral mobility, transition ability rather than explosivness straight line speed make some sense?
 

Stand Witness

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A 30 pt defenseman is probably equal in value to a 50 pt winger on paper.

I'm giving both the benefit of the doubt and assuming they would hit those numbers. Dermott is really good. Konency is really good.

I think at the end of the day both will be amazing players who respectively are borderline top line players but just fail short. The defenseman will probably hold more value though.
 

Stand Witness

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Its not all about numbers. He simply doesn't skate well enough at this point in time, regardless of numbers to be a first rounder, and if he was born later, we would here exactly what we heard this year about Ryan McLeod and Matthew Tkachuk, were "they should be compared against last years class."

Now I'd hope that a solid season of training and developing leg muscle will help with this. Easier said than done, but I am sure the Leafs will have a plan in place for him.
 

93LEAFS

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So if your making a calculated risk on prospects with flaws did what we do going IQ, puck moving, lateral mobility, transition ability rather than explosivness straight line speed make some sense?
Some of the guys we picked have fundamental issues with their skating and it isn't just explosiveness. For example, SDA doesn't have a great stride in his skating. He isn't really a great skater in anyway. He has good hands, and appears to have good vision. Its not like Bracco, who had elite edge-work but wasn't particularly explosive.

Also, evaluating what you want out of defenders and forwards skating wise is a bit different. For defenders, 4-way mobility is of the most importance.
 

Kiwi

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Some of the guys we picked have fundamental issues with their skating and it isn't just explosiveness. For example, SDA doesn't have a great stride in his skating. He isn't really a great skater in anyway. He has good hands, and appears to have good vision. Its not like Bracco, who had elite edge-work but wasn't particularly explosive.

Also, evaluating what you want out of defenders and forwards skating wise is a bit different. For defenders, 4-way mobility is of the most importance.

Most of the defenseman we picked seemed to have 4-way mobility, it should be interesting how they work out from here

Stotts sounds like hes a pretty good skater but SDA looks like a skill/hands pick to me, it's going to be interesting if they can sort his skating mechanics out
 

93LEAFS

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Then why didn't the Leafs just pick Konecky at 24? They had the pick. Guess he wasn't rated as high on the Leafs list as the Flyers or the fans lists.
Because Dubas wanted to trade down no matter what, and it was a significant disagreement between the two, and helped set the stage for what eventually happened (Hunter being unwilling to work under Dubas).
 

KMNRB

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If the Leafs were down to Beaudin and Sandin, as has been rumored, then this trade worked out. Although, I still would have preferred Bokk.

You mentioned in the other thread that Beaudin is not Hunter's choice. Do you know which player(s) Hunter would've picked? Is it McCleod as rumored?

Keying in on two guys and trading down 4 spots seems pretty risky to me, you look like an idiot if both go before #29

Perhaps there're a few others, such as Lundqvist and AlexAlex, in the same range. As it seems that it is Babcock's preference to pick a D or C over winger so it's unlikely they would pick Bokk, but they probably know that's who the Blues were after when they trade up.
 

KMNRB

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I was picking games at random to watch today (ended up watching Game 4 vs Saginaw, and a game in January vs Barrie). I'll probably just power through the SSM vs OS series though, as that will give me more viewings of Sandin, Durzi, and Hollowell.

I wonder if you or anyone can make some shift-to-shift videos for Sandin and Durzi.

For anyone who wants to catch Durzi's game action instead of highlights, I found out that he played on the OHL team in Russia-Canada series, and there is a youtube video of these games (Durzi wears #5):

You can compare him against another 1st rounder (Bouchard #2). The game was early in the season so I assume Durzi would've improved much in the playoffs series against the Soo.
 

93LEAFS

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You mentioned in the other thread that Beaudin is not Hunter's choice. Do you know which player(s) Hunter would've picked? Is it McCleod as rumored?



Perhaps there're a few others, such as Lundqvist and AlexAlex, in the same range. As it seems that it is Babcock's preference to pick a D or C over winger so it's unlikely they would pick Bokk, but they probably know that's who the Blues were after when they trade up.
I can't say.
I wonder if you or anyone can make some shift-to-shift videos for Sandin and Durzi.

For anyone who wants to catch Durzi's game action instead of highlights, I found out that he played on the OHL team in Russia-Canada series, and there is a youtube video of these games (Durzi wears #5):

You can compare him against another 1st rounder (Bouchard #2). The game was early in the season so I assume Durzi would've improved much in the playoffs series against the Soo.

I am nowhere near good enough with editing tools to do this and to credit the people who do, do this, it is quite time consuming to properly document every shift.

Anyone who wants to watch them can buy individual games still on OHL Live. 3 of the Leafs prospects play in that series.
 

93LEAFS

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So you mean you know, but can't say?



Yeah I plan to do that. Let us know if there's any one game that all three play well.
I heard something, but I can't say it.

I find Holloway underwhelming in both games I've watched so far. I doubt there will be a combo where all three have good to great games.
 

7even

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Most of the defenseman we picked seemed to have 4-way mobility, it should be interesting how they work out from here

Stotts sounds like hes a pretty good skater but SDA looks like a skill/hands pick to me, it's going to be interesting if they can sort his skating mechanics out

SDA strikes me as a Timashov type of prospect. Good hands, good vision, suspect skating. Timashov is a stockier build though.
 

Kiwi

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SDA strikes me as a Timashov type of prospect. Good hands, good vision, suspect skating. Timashov is a stockier build though.

He's a home run cut, I don't love the skating but I like the general theory behind the pick
 

Kiwi

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I really hope always trading down like this isn't always going to be the goal. I just survived the Sachi Brown era, and that motto should have been branded on his forehead.

Doing it in the mid to late 20's isn't exactly the same as doing it in the first couple of picks

NFL teams are much more willing to trade out of top 3 picks than NHL teams seem to be, nobody is passing on a quality defenseman or center early like the Brown's did with QB'S, well the haven't done that a lot recently anyway
 
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93LEAFS

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Doing it in the mid to late 20's isn't exactly the same as doing it in the first couple of picks

NFL teams are much more willing to trade out of top 3 picks than NHL teams seem to be, nobody is passing on a quality defenseman or center early like the Brown's did with QB'S, well the haven't done that a lot recently anyway
It is more you keep on costing yourself an opportunity. They traded down at 12 and 8 before too. It was a similar analytics based belief that the more shots the better.

This time it appears to have worked out if our board was really down to Beaudin and Sandin. I think always doing it is playing with fire, and the big difference with the NFL, is 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks have a way higher probability of being successful players for you.

My fear is, that it is a dogmatic belief currently with this team. And, to truly capitalize on trading down consistently to see the payoffs, those extra picks you acquire need to turn into something. But, with late 2nds and early 3rds being so unlikely to be NHLers, for the strategy to pay-off you probably need to continually do it.
 

Menzinger

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Doing it in the mid to late 20's isn't exactly the same as doing it in the first couple of picks

NFL teams are much more willing to trade out of top 3 picks than NHL teams seem to be, nobody is passing on a quality defenseman or center early like the Brown's did with QB'S, well the haven't done that a lot recently anyway

Yeah, where you are in the draft is a huge factor in trading back or not. Ie often doesn’t make a lot of sense to trade out of the top 5, or out of the top 10 completely.

But if you’ve got a pick around 20-31, the value difference of those picks is near meaningless between one another, so if you can get an extra 2nd or early 3rd to move back, a few spots then go ahead.
 

Menzinger

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It is more you keep on costing yourself an opportunity. They traded down at 12 and 8 before too. It was a similar analytics based belief that the more shots the better.

This time it appears to have worked out if our board was really down to Beaudin and Sandin. I think always doing it is playing with fire, and the big difference with the NFL, is 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks have a way higher probability of being successful players for you.

My fear is, that it is a dogmatic belief currently with this team. And, to truly capitalize on trading down consistently to see the payoffs, those extra picks you acquire need to turn into something. But, with late 2nds and early 3rds being so unlikely to be NHLers, for the strategy to pay-off you probably need to continually do it.

But the odds of those late round 1sts turning into something significant also isn’t great, especially in relation to a 2nd. Folks will often quote the value of a 1st round pick, but that value gets highly distorted by the fact that a top 10 pick is way, way more valuable than a later round selection.

You’re right though about the trade back strategy having higher odds at success the more you do it. Though thats a good reason why it’ll likely continue for the Leafs if they are slated to pick in the latter half of the 1st round for the next few years
 

Leafs at Knight

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Trading down in the early-mid 20's is perfectly fine. Chances are - like this year, there were still a lot of player in the same tier available, and we like both Beaudin and Sadin who were still available. Also chances are, there were still a couple more players just below those 2 we really liked also. Don't see it as a thing we'll continuously be doing, 2015 was a joint effort so Hunter would've had a lot of say in the decision.
 

93LEAFS

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But the odds of those late round 1sts turning into something significant also isn’t great, especially in relation to a 2nd. Folks will often quote the value of a 1st round pick, but that value gets highly distorted by the fact that a top 10 pick is way, way more valuable than a later round selection.

You’re right though about the trade back strategy having higher odds at success the more you do it. Though thats a good reason why it’ll likely continue for the Leafs if they are slated to pick in the latter half of the 1st round for the next few years
I think at a certain point, if there is a faller you like, you have to own the pick and just make the pick. I don't believe you need to get overly cute and creative.

We'll see how it works out. But so far in our trade downs, we've really only acquired basically 3 3rd rounders (Bracco was essentially a 3rd at the time due to there being a comp pick).

You also run into the issue of contract slots and retaining rights.
 

RoadWarrior

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He's a home run cut, I don't love the skating but I like the general theory behind the pick

The theory hinges on the idea that SDA is underdeveloped and given his age his stats should be treated as a D -1 player. In that case he would be a first round pick in 2019.

It's a reach. He needs to add about 20 lbs of pure muscle. Realistically he has maybe a 10% chance of playing in the NHL.

Personally I think there were better options on the table at 76 such as Lauko, Ranta, McLaughlin, Shafigullin and Dostal.
 

Kiwi

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It is more you keep on costing yourself an opportunity. They traded down at 12 and 8 before too. It was a similar analytics based belief that the more shots the better.

This time it appears to have worked out if our board was really down to Beaudin and Sandin. I think always doing it is playing with fire, and the big difference with the NFL, is 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks have a way higher probability of being successful players for you.

My fear is, that it is a dogmatic belief currently with this team. And, to truly capitalize on trading down consistently to see the payoffs, those extra picks you acquire need to turn into something. But, with late 2nds and early 3rds being so unlikely to be NHLers, for the strategy to pay-off you probably need to continually do it.

If your not trading down into a lower tier trading down in the 20's is a reasonably solid strategy to abide by and the more often you do it the more likely it is to pay off eventually, I don't see it being an issue unless it becomes a dogma that happens no matter the situation


Yeah, where you are in the draft is a huge factor in trading back or not. Ie often doesn’t make a lot of sense to trade out of the top 5, or out of the top 10 completely.

But if you’ve got a pick around 20-31, the value difference of those picks is near meaningless between one another, so if you can get an extra 2nd or early 3rd to move back, a few spots then go ahead.

I agree as long as those guys are in the same tier, I don't like going back 4 picks in a trade down though if there's only 2 guys were interested in, that seemed unnecessarily risky
 
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