The Crypto Guy
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What an awful contract. Why would you ever sign a top 4 dman to a 7 year deal? Is he even a top 4 anymore?
Confirmed Signing with Link: [TOR] Maple Leafs sign Nikita Zaitsev to extension (7 years, $4.5m AAV)
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The Crypto Guy
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Martin Skoula
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What a bunch of idiots, why didn't the fans expect him to get 2 concussions and break his foot in the span of a few months? It was obvious his game was going to fall off because of injuries he hadn't sustained at the time of this thread.
Ramble incoming
Let's say that Zaitsev is deemed to be "worth" his contract. Not a steal, just worth it. A 4.5 million dollar 4D signed long term is a big time positive asset. Neutral contract -> positive value
Let's say Zaitsev is a 5D worth 3 million, and is signed to that long term. Not as valuable because he's a lesser player, but still a valuable asset. Again, neutral contract -> positive value.
A contract doesn't have to be a net efficiency (player underpaid relative to market) for that player to have trade value. Despite how cap centric TSN culture has us, player value still in most part defined by contribution. The interaction between contract relative to contribution certainly has an impact, but it is not so powerful that a slight contract innefficiency completely erodes player value to the negative.
Zaitsev floats somewhere between a 4 and a 5. He's worth 3-3.5. There better deals out there but at 3-3.5 that's par. The positive value of a 4-5 RHD signed long term should outweigh the negative of the ~1mil innefficiency, or at very least break even. Paying to get rid of him is not a smart move
Let's say that Zaitsev is deemed to be "worth" his contract. Not a steal, just worth it. A 4.5 million dollar 4D signed long term is a big time positive asset. Neutral contract -> positive value
Let's say Zaitsev is a 5D worth 3 million, and is signed to that long term. Not as valuable because he's a lesser player, but still a valuable asset. Again, neutral contract -> positive value.
A contract doesn't have to be a net efficiency (player underpaid relative to market) for that player to have trade value. Despite how cap centric TSN culture has us, player value still in most part defined by contribution. The interaction between contract relative to contribution certainly has an impact, but it is not so powerful that a slight contract innefficiency completely erodes player value to the negative.
Zaitsev floats somewhere between a 4 and a 5. He's worth 3-3.5. There better deals out there but at 3-3.5 that's par. The positive value of a 4-5 RHD signed long term should outweigh the negative of the ~1mil innefficiency, or at very least break even. Paying to get rid of him is not a smart move
Kotkaniemi15
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Unlike the Leafs, Habs actually have the cap space to fit in Alzner w/out having to sacrificee some of there young talent to fit him under their cap.
Id barely a 5-6 ATM, Def not top4 quality
5-6 are being paid 2-3M$ at most, Making Zaitsev 1.5-2.5M$ overpaid. That's a lot
FissionFire
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That’s a good point you make 4thline. However you have to also take into account performance trajectory, especially with a contract this long. Zaitsev’s play has been declining. That’s not a good trend when you are faced with 5 more years on a contract. The question becomes where do you feel his play will be when he bottoms out. Will he be a 4-5 still? Will he slip to 5-6 or worse? He could become like Wade Redden, only able to perform at a #7/AHL level despite a big dollar contract. Do you take that risk on a guy who can really hurt your cap for 5 years?
Personally I would. I think if he gets out of Toronto he can thrive and get back to where he was before. I can totally understand however that there may be plenty of teams/posters out there who feel his best play is behind him and don’t see the value in taking a huge risk.
Personally I would. I think if he gets out of Toronto he can thrive and get back to where he was before. I can totally understand however that there may be plenty of teams/posters out there who feel his best play is behind him and don’t see the value in taking a huge risk.
Liferleafer
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But when you have to pay top stars 8-10 million, that extra cap on a #5 makes a big difference on a player who's stock has been going downhill. The long term here isn't a positive. I'm sure he can be moved without going overboard, but I think Leafs will have to take less back than they want, or add some asset with him if they want something usable.
And the worst thing is, you'll prob ahve to trade one of them in order to fit Zaistev under your cap!
Enjoy Zaitsev and Marleau!
Martin Skoula
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Yeah but that's because the Leafs actually have young talent worth paying. Obviously it's easy to fit in Kotka's eventual 4 mil deal even with all the dead cap on your roster.
BonMorrison
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Awww shit, he got extended again?
Not down for a 14 year old contract but is what it is now. Does anyone know if this violates the CBA? Thinking we might have a Kovalchuk situation on our hands.
Not down for a 14 year old contract but is what it is now. Does anyone know if this violates the CBA? Thinking we might have a Kovalchuk situation on our hands.
At leats, we won't have to pay him William Nylander's 0,5PPG money. That way we'll be able to keep our other talented guys also!
One thing I see fans in all sports getting stuck in, is seeing $ of contract instead of % of cap. Cap hit as a $ amount can make a contract look bigger than it currently is, or make us think a guy is incorrectly paid.
Zaitsev is 5.4% of a 83m cap, which I think is the conservative number for next year cap. Thats around 1/19th of the cap.
I see Zaitsev as a net negative on a contending team, but on a team who isnt likely to make the playoffs with cap space he may be worth a gamble to see if he rebounds to his rookie season level. Specifically a team where he can be played in the same spot (PP time, more offensive minded member of the pair) could see a good gamble.
Any team taking him on (imo) is likely going to either be able to get rid of cash now or cash that doesnt play.
Kind of like the Horton for Clarkson contract. Clarkson wasnt near worth the contract he had, but the team trading for him was making a gamble he could rebound a bit and at least he is play games.
Ottawa might want to dump Gaborik, who has 2 more years at 4.8m who isnt playing. He had a injury history, contract might not be insured. Add Mike Condon who has another year at 2.4 for a guy who is below AHL level right now, and a deal starts making sense for both teams.
Cap hit wise, Leafs add Condons overage number to the cap for 1 year. Leafs pay the cash for Gab and use his to exceed cap.
Ottawa loses 2.7m cash next year, 300k years 2. Add 4.5m per year years 3,4,5, by which time 4.5m will be a much smaller % of the cap, and they can move him again if they want to save the cash at that point.
Zaitsev is 5.4% of a 83m cap, which I think is the conservative number for next year cap. Thats around 1/19th of the cap.
I see Zaitsev as a net negative on a contending team, but on a team who isnt likely to make the playoffs with cap space he may be worth a gamble to see if he rebounds to his rookie season level. Specifically a team where he can be played in the same spot (PP time, more offensive minded member of the pair) could see a good gamble.
Any team taking him on (imo) is likely going to either be able to get rid of cash now or cash that doesnt play.
Kind of like the Horton for Clarkson contract. Clarkson wasnt near worth the contract he had, but the team trading for him was making a gamble he could rebound a bit and at least he is play games.
Ottawa might want to dump Gaborik, who has 2 more years at 4.8m who isnt playing. He had a injury history, contract might not be insured. Add Mike Condon who has another year at 2.4 for a guy who is below AHL level right now, and a deal starts making sense for both teams.
Cap hit wise, Leafs add Condons overage number to the cap for 1 year. Leafs pay the cash for Gab and use his to exceed cap.
Ottawa loses 2.7m cash next year, 300k years 2. Add 4.5m per year years 3,4,5, by which time 4.5m will be a much smaller % of the cap, and they can move him again if they want to save the cash at that point.
Habs Halifax
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ManwithNoIdentity
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Habs Halifax
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@FissionFire @TGWL L yes risk of further decline should be considered, but that's also mitigated against the cap. I agree that his contract hurts his value, I disagree with the idea that he's some albatross that we'll need to pay to move.
If Dubas decides to move him the acquiring team is going to use that contract risk and gamble on getting a 4RHD for a heavily discounted price (and I think they'll win the gamble).
Like pointed out by the poster above me I see a Phaneuf style mutual back scratching where the Leafs get a 3rd + C prospect and eat some money that doesn't have a cap impact
If Dubas decides to move him the acquiring team is going to use that contract risk and gamble on getting a 4RHD for a heavily discounted price (and I think they'll win the gamble).
Like pointed out by the poster above me I see a Phaneuf style mutual back scratching where the Leafs get a 3rd + C prospect and eat some money that doesn't have a cap impact
bleedgreen
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The AAV not being that bad for a teams cap hit is the only thing that doesn't make this the worst contract in the league. Lucic is still worse. I don't see any team taking this guy in a trade even if you paid them to take him. You don't take a chance on a guy getting his mojo back when he has that many years left on the deal. My viewings of the Leafs make for a small sample size but every time I see him he can't get out of his own way.
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