Confirmed with Link: TOR extends Alex Kerfoot. 4 years, 3.5M AAV

[Nooodles]

Is Kerfoot likely to wear #13 with the Leafs?

no chance

 

[crump]

A faster Bozak but more of a passer than shooter, Bozak has a better shot. So not really like Bozak? He likes to tip shots in the slot, gets goals close in.. maybe a faster Brown that plays centre but not as physical, so not like Brown? Ennis/Johnsson level player, but a passer instead of a shooter? Who the heck knows?

 

[Nylander88]

Sure i guess id rather bozak

Bozak is early 30's and makes 5mil per

 

[Boutette]

Interesting pre-trade article by Tim Chiasson on Kerfoot and his usage in CO. https://thehockeywriters.com/avalanche-kerfoot-valuable-player/

"When Kerfoot is on the ice without Compher, the Avalanche enjoyed 52.36% of the shot attempts going in their favor. Together it was 47.49%, and when Compher is one the ice without Kerfoot it drops to 45.98%. Wilson is not much better. On the same stat-line with him, we have 51.53% with Kerfoot away, 49.74% together and a 46.19% rating when Wilson is on the ice without Kerfoot.
That trend continues for the limited minutes that Kerfoot shared the ice with Carl Soderberg and Gabriel Bourque. The picture should be getting clearer. The only players that Kerfoot didn’t carry were Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Rantanen. I think that’s acceptable."

Everything I have seen about this guy says he is a 3 zone player but has to get stronger and he is almost 25 so it isn't happening organically if at all, and his offense last season was heavily biased towards the pp which isn't good going to a team as loaded up as the Leafs. However the cap hit is right for a skilled #3 and the trade is a reset which might allow a bit more development. Strength and skating are heavily tied to age, but offensive improvement is more affected by the number of pro games a player has had, and he had no AHL prep. You will see a lot written about him being weak or even "willowy" but you won't see anything saying he is a perimeter player in spite of that. He will be an interesting guy to watch.

I find it interesting how people forget that (a) the leafs PP was mediocre at best this past year, so could use a bit of a shake up, and that 3 PP forwards are gone (Kadri, Marleau and Ennis) and need to be replaced. The idea that a PP specialist like Kerfoot wouldn't get significant PP usage sounds silly to me.

 

[PAZ]

I find it interesting how people forget that (a) the leafs PP was mediocre at best this past year, so could use a bit of a shake up, and that 3 PP forwards are gone (Kadri, Marleau and Ennis) and need to be replaced. The idea that a PP specialist like Kerfoot wouldn't get significant PP usage sounds silly to me.

It depends on what type of PP set-up the Leafs employ, but Kerfoot was an elite 2nd PP quarterback on the Avs. He was a bit miscast on the first PP, and I imagine it would be similar on the Leafs. Kerfoot had two opportunities on the #1 unit, the first was by down on the half wall/dots but everyone and their mother knew he wasn't going to shoot, so it allowed the defenders to cheat. He also had some time as the net front presence/floater but he was too soft for the role. Where he excelled was the 2nd PP unit. He's not good enough to drive the 1st PP, but most team's 2nd PP doesn't have a reliable quarterback or elite players like Mackinnon, so the puck can run through him.

 

[The Iceman]

Looks like he might just use the same personal trainer as Kessel...body built by Fritos Lays

https://www.sportsnet.ca/?gclid=COKHprP7utICFVWewAodcSkH_Q

 

[mix1home]

Not a fan of signing guys we just got to multi year deals. Let's see what we have first. Him scoring 40 points for the Avs doesn't mean he will get 40 or over for us.

It much certainly does. He probably scores more and then you are looking at much higher cap hit.

 

[Rob Brown]

Is Kerfoot likely to wear #13 with the Leafs?

Interesting question...

 

[Ziggdiezan]

It depends on what type of PP set-up the Leafs employ, but Kerfoot was an elite 2nd PP quarterback on the Avs. He was a bit miscast on the first PP, and I imagine it would be similar on the Leafs. Kerfoot had two opportunities on the #1 unit, the first was by down on the half wall/dots but everyone and their mother knew he wasn't going to shoot, so it allowed the defenders to cheat. He also had some time as the net front presence/floater but he was too soft for the role. Where he excelled was the 2nd PP unit. He's not good enough to drive the 1st PP, but most team's 2nd PP doesn't have a reliable quarterback or elite players like Mackinnon, so the puck can run through him.

I imagine the plan was to have him run the 2nd unit all along. Might even get Barrie on that second unit too so it will be a pretty high skill level unit.

Should be exciting

 

[JT AM da real deal]

If he can go on ice and log 15 minutes a night and keep puck out of our net when he is on ice then it is a good pick up. If he is an iffy defensive player then my guess he won't be here long.

 

[The Podium]

I imagine the plan was to have him run the 2nd unit all along. Might even get Barrie on that second unit too so it will be a pretty high skill level unit.

Should be exciting

I would imagine the PP lines would be

Tavares
Matthews - Nylander
Rielly - Marner

Spezza
Kapanen - Johnsson
Kerfoot - Barrie​

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I would imagine the PP lines would be

Tavares
Matthews - Nylander
Rielly - Marner

Spezza
Kapanen - Johnsson
Kerfoot - Barrie​

I dont think Kap would make a great PP player to be honest, seems to suffer from tunnel vision. It may work better to swap Kap infront and have Spezza on a half wall.

 

[IPS]

I would imagine the PP lines would be

Tavares
Matthews - Nylander
Rielly - Marner

Spezza
Kapanen - Johnsson
Kerfoot - Barrie​

I freakin' wish man.

Simplification just ain't in the dictionary of our coaching staff.

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Not a fan of signing guys we just got to multi year deals. Let's see what we have first. Him scoring 40 points for the Avs doesn't mean he will get 40 or over for us.

To be fair the East is definitely tailored to his style of play (not overly physical tends to lean on his speed and smarts) more so than the West...plus he will be playing with better players on that 3rd line than he saw (power play excluded) with the Avalanche, and he's a pass first guy...the kind of guy you want paired with a Kapanen (Tunnel Vision master) and a Johnsson (all around forward)...that line will have speed to kill for a 3rd line and Kappy isn't exactly shy of throwing his weight around (when he's dialed in) it's a solid Defensively responsible 3rd line that has major potential to hurt other teams who don't give them any respect (they could potentially absolutely feast on 3rd lines around the league) while still having the ability to match up as needed against a #2 line and on few occasions a #1 line...I can see him potentially fitting in extremely well on this version of the TML

 

[JayfromNB1219]

I'm honestly not even sure he's a center. He couldn't stick there with us. He also doesn't fit at all with a traditional bottom six role since he's not a physical player and isn't a good player on the cycle, nor is he good in his own zone. Where he's at his best is when he's playing with skilled guys he can set up with his good passing, and where he's not expected to be anything but a support guy. That being said, he failed miserably to perform well with MacKinnon, so who knows? Now, I know Toronto doesn't seem to be building a traditional bottom 6, so maybe he's a perfect fit for what you guys are trying to do. He's fast and he has some skill, so if that's what Toronto wants in its bottom 6 then maybe he'll fit nicely.

Edit: Sorry I didn't answer your question. Bozak is probably a decent comparable, but I still like my original "poor man's P.A. Parenteau" comparison as the best I can think of.

Edit2: oh, and another thing - he can probably run your 2nd powerplay if you need that. Good passer with excellent vision when he has time and space. Just don't ask him to shoot.

I hear you but...stick him on 3C with a Kapanen on his left and Johnsson on his right and I think he fits in quite well for a "different" looking 3rd line...Defensively responsible with the horses to seriously hurt another team offensively given opportunity

 

[LeafalCrusader]

I would imagine the PP lines would be

Tavares
Matthews - Nylander
Rielly - Marner

Spezza
Kapanen - Johnsson
Kerfoot - Barrie​

And the 2nd unit would still get the same amount of minutes as the first with Babcock here

 

[JayfromNB1219]

So he was good on the PP for the Avs? Could he help the not-so-good PP2?

Our PP1 might work better now as well... Kadri wasn't really a fit for it and for whatever reason was never bumped to PP2.

why not this

Micheyev (or another biggish body with some hands)
Tavares
Matthews Marner
Rielly


Moore/Korshkov

Kerfoot Nylander

(off side) Muzzin Barrie

EDIT: definitely forgot about Nylander whoops!

 

[TheProspector]

Right, so a single stat rather than watching him for two seasons? Am I interpreting this response correctly?

Edit: Also, what's your source for that?

Edit #2: If xGA/60 is the best stat you've got, I have to tell you that your top five worst forwards in that stat last season were Marleau, Matthews, Tavares, Hyman and Kapanen. Are you prepared to say those five forwards all suck defensively?

Not OP, but none of them are great.

Defensive acumen requires very complicated and multi-dimensional evaluation, and I personally wouldn't rely on xGA/60 -- but it is useful.

The WOWY shot against heatmaps pretty clearly indicate that Kerfoot is a legitimately excellent defensive player, though, and the combination of all of these things lead us to be able to conclude this pretty strongly.

And, yeah, Marleau is awful defensively.

Classic addition by subtraction. Matthews, Hyman, and Tavares also have strongly negative defensive impacts by this measurement. The difference between those three players and Marleau is that they each more than make up for it by quantity and quality of shots in the offensive zone.

 

[Rob Brown]

why not this

Micheyev (or another biggish body with some hands)
Tavares
Matthews Marner
Rielly


Moore/Korshkov

Kerfoot Nylander

(off side) Muzzin Barrie

EDIT: definitely forgot about Nylander whoops!

Little chance Korshkov makes the Leafs.

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Little chance Korshkov makes the Leafs.

Yeah I was drawing a brutal blank while thinking of a secondary net front presence who wouldn't be better placed elsewhere lol...I also left out Spezza accidentally as well but we couldn't stick him right in front and the thought of Nylander or Kerfoot in a net front role makes me shudder lol

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I dont think Kap would make a great PP player to be honest, seems to suffer from tunnel vision. It may work better to swap Kap infront and have Spezza on a half wall.

I'd drop Kapanen too TBH. The only problem is that unless you move Kerfoot off of the blue line, then you are resorting to either Moore or Mikheyev as alternatives. Moore was an excellent PPer in the AHL at that spot, but who knows if it'll translate to the NHL. Mikheyev also PPed in the KHL, but I don't know where. He may not be a great fit in the NHL.

The best thing would have been to have Muzzin's slapshot alongside Barrie, or to have Dermott play a role as another PPQB, but they'd have to be in Kerfoot's spot most likely.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

I would imagine the PP lines would be

Tavares
Matthews - Nylander
Rielly - Marner

Spezza
Kapanen - Johnsson
Kerfoot - Barrie​

I like

Pp1
Matthews (off the wall)
Tavares (infront)
Marner(rover)
Rielly (QB)
Barrie (point shot option)

Pp2
Spezza (draws and down low)
Kapanen (off the wall and retreival)
Nylander (Rover)
Kerfoot (Passing from backend)
Muzzin (Shot option from point )

Pp2 likely sees less, but it's a solid option. I can see Babs riding Muzzin as a PK guy. But his shot is heavy and could be a could secondary option to keep teams honest

 

[PromisedLand]

I would imagine the PP lines would be

Tavares
Matthews - Nylander
Rielly - Marner

Spezza
Kapanen - Johnsson
Kerfoot - Barrie​

Given that Babcock splits the time between 1st and 2nd PP unit I would prefer to go as following:

PP1
Spezza
Nylander Matthews (both on off wing for one timers)
Muzzin Barrie (Muzzin for his one-timer bombs)


PP2
Tavares
Johnsson Marner
Rielly Kapanen


If we don't score on the PP the we counter oppositions' line with:

Kerfoot-Matthews-Nylander
Muzzin Barrie

Then follow up with Tavares line

XXX-Tavares-Marner
Rielly Ceci

Then back to normal rotations

 

[PromisedLand]

Looks like he might just use the same personal trainer as Kessel...body built by Fritos Lays

Sports News: World and National Sports Headlines, Score Updates, Highlights, Stats & Results - Sportsnet.ca

Is he on a strict hot-dog diet?

 

[Randy Randerson]

Not OP, but none of them are great.

Defensive acumen requires very complicated and multi-dimensional evaluation, and I personally wouldn't rely on xGA/60 -- but it is useful.

View attachment 246435

The WOWY shot against heatmaps pretty clearly indicate that Kerfoot is a legitimately excellent defensive player, though, and the combination of all of these things lead us to be able to conclude this pretty strongly.

And, yeah, Marleau is awful defensively.

View attachment 246437

Classic addition by subtraction. Matthews, Hyman, and Tavares also have strongly negative defensive impacts by this measurement. The difference between those three players and Marleau is that they each more than make up for it by quantity and quality of shots in the offensive zone.

RAPM backs that up, and adds that his impact on goals for was well below his impact on expected goals for, which I take to mean that he was better offensively than the scoring totals while he was on the ice suggest. That's also backed up by his 7.6% OIsh%, which for most top 6 players is closer to 10%

I don't exactly know what to expect with this guy, there's a lot of Bozak-like reviews from the Colorado fanbase, but it seems like he's going to be a much better player than our eyes will probably lead us to believe