Confirmed with Link: [TOR/COL] Nazem Kadri, Calle Rosen for Tyson Barrie (50% retain), Alex Kerfoot trade (continued)

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Tak7

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So 5 games tell you Barrie will be better than Gards under pressure?

I like Barrie because we needed a more defensive minded D man, Gardiner was an overkill on offense as we have so many skilled wingers. Regardless, I would like to see a full season of Barrie to compare the contributions Gardiner has made to this team.

Read my original post, before quoting me asking me the same question I replied to.

Thanks.
 

Koolboss

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Jul 4, 2011
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Kadri vs Kerfoot so far this season:

NameCF%D zone start%PP PointsEV Points
Kerfoot57.754.813
Kadri50%55.622
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Similar stats. Kerfoot has more GP, but also less quality PP time. Kadri is producing better per game and looks like he will put up 10-15 points more, but part of that comes from PP opportunity.

To me they seem like pretty even players. Kadri will score more goals and has more to offer offensively, but Kerfoot can kill penalties, is younger and cheaper, and is only a slight downgrade offensively.
cool
 

hoglund

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Kadri vs Kerfoot so far this season:

NameCF%D zone start%PP PointsEV Points
Kerfoot57.754.813
Kadri50%55.622
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Similar stats. Kerfoot has more GP, but also less quality PP time. Kadri is producing better per game and looks like he will put up 10-15 points more, but part of that comes from PP opportunity.

To me they seem like pretty even players. Kadri will score more goals and has more to offer offensively, but Kerfoot can kill penalties, is younger and cheaper, and is only a slight downgrade offensively.
Kadri has more to offer in toughness, but so far Kerfoot hasn't been suspended.
 
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PromisedLand

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Kadri has more to offer in toughness, but so far Kerfoot hasn't been suspended.

kadri is also facing high QoC as a 2nd line center so that has to be accounted for as well

if Avs decided to spread their top line offense i.e. move either landeskog or ranta to the 2nd line; this might have further benefit to kadri's production.

kerfoot benefits a lot playing behind both JT and Matthews; but if scores the same as kadri did then it is a win-win situation for both clubs
 

Merrrlin

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kadri is also facing high QoC as a 2nd line center so that has to be accounted for as well

if Avs decided to spread their top line offense i.e. move either landeskog or ranta to the 2nd line; this might have further benefit to kadri's production.

kerfoot benefits a lot playing behind both JT and Matthews; but if scores the same as kadri did then it is a win-win situation for both clubs

I mean, if they are equal, is it really a win win? Toronto did get Tyson Barrie in the deal as well...

If Kadri scores 20g, and 10-15 points more than Kerfoot for 1m more AND Tyson Barrie walks, then I would still say Toronto does a little better. That's assuming Rosen can be a bottom pairing defenceman at the NHL level.

If Kerfoot and Kadri are close and Barrie score 50+ points, and actually signs with TO, this is a great deal for Dubas unless Rosen can be a good top 4 guy.

Colorado is able to do that because they have so much talent on the back end.

What were Kadri and Kerfoot's QoCs so far this year?
 
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notDatsyuk

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kadri is also facing high QoC as a 2nd line center so that has to be accounted for as well

if Avs decided to spread their top line offense i.e. move either landeskog or ranta to the 2nd line; this might have further benefit to kadri's production.

kerfoot benefits a lot playing behind both JT and Matthews; but if scores the same as kadri did then it is a win-win situation for both clubs
QoC is always interesting. Does a #1 line playing against a checking line face harder competition than one playing against another top line? If a #3 line is tasked with shutting down a top line, is their QoC higher that a #2 line playing against another #2 line. And who are you playing against? Last year, was any Leaf line harder to play against than the Isles' 4th line?

'Quality' is very subjective.
 

PromisedLand

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I mean, if they are equal, is it really a win win? Toronto did get Tyson Barrie in the deal as well...

If Kadri scores 20g, and 10-15 points more than Kerfoot for 1m more AND Tyson Barrie walks, then I would still say Toronto does a little better. That's assuming Rosen can be a bottom pairing defenceman at the NHL level.

If Kerfoot and Kadri are close and Barrie score 50+ points, and actually signs with TO, this is a great deal for Dubas unless Rosen can be a good top 4 guy.

Colorado is able to do that because they have so much talent on the back end.

What were Kadri and Kerfoot's QoCs so far this year?

It depends on how both Kadri and Kerfoot/Barrie impact their new team's success. I say team success not point production because scoring is important but not getting scored on is equally as important.

If Kadri scores 40 points but plays well defensively; and also contributes in the playoff success for the Avs
while
Kerfoot scores 50 points and Barrie 50 points but don't play well defensively and do not contribute to playoff success.

then how does one quantify which team really benefited from trade?

In the end for me it is always going to be team success impact.

Also if Barrie walks; basically the trade boils down to Kadri+Rosen for Kerfoot (and Barrie for a season) is that really a good trade for the Leafs?

I guess we will have the answer by the end of the season for sure; at least part of the answer until we know where Barrie re-signs and how the post season success of both the Avs and Leafs measure up.

So far it is looking like a win-win scenario; but the sample size is too small to say anything definitive. We gonna have to wait for a while to really quantify the impact of the trade on both clubs
 

PromisedLand

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QoC is always interesting. Does a #1 line playing against a checking line face harder competition than one playing against another top line? If a #3 line is tasked with shutting down a top line, is their QoC higher that a #2 line playing against another #2 line. And who are you playing against? Last year, was any Leaf line harder to play against than the Isles' 4th line?

'Quality' is very subjective.

Technically QoT and QoC together should help paint some picture. Quality may be subjective but production is not. If the Line 1 is playing against Line 3 of the opposition

Line 1 puts up lots of point
Line 3 from opposition does not put up a lot of point

I would assume Line 1 QoT is much higher as line-mates are producing; and QoC for Line 3 from the opposition is much higher because Line 3 isn't matching Line 1 production.

Example:

Bergeron line against Tavares line
On Bergeron line you had three players (Bergeron, Marchand, Pastrnak) all putting up points versus Hyman-Tavares-Marner where the production really came from Tavares-Marner

at least for me
QoT for Bergeron line is much higher than QoT for Tavares line; this would imply that the QoC for Tavares line is much greater than QoC for Bergeron line in that match-up in that game.

Now when Bergeron line plays against other teams; how do those teams respond? With their top line or do they have a shut down line? If other teams respond by playing their top line then Bergeron line has a high QoC as they might have a high chance of getting scored on; but if Bergeron line plays oppositions' shut-down line then probability of Bergeron line getting scored on is much lower

Then you have other metrics like zone starts. zone time, corsi (i hate corsi btw); GF%; chances forced% etc... to really evaluate how the said line performed.

Hypothetical scenario:

Suppose Kadri line keeps on outchancing their match-up every game but don't produce as much does that mean Kadri line is productive? It would depend I guess to look at if Kadri line is giving up goals and not scoring goals.

Corsi and chances are stats that could shed light onsomethings but in the end goals matter. plus/minus is stat that is laughed at but really in the end the game is always decided by who scored the most goals or who gave up less goals.

So really, it is not just production but also not giving goals that matters. Bergeron line excels at scoring on others while not giving up goals themslves.

Now between Kadri and Kerfoot lines who is going to be a stronger net positive for their team success in the long run? We really have to wait for a while; at the moment the sample size isn't big enough to properly quantify it.

This is where foresight comes into play because after the end of the season we can lay a claim based on results but that is a hindsight is 20-20 scenario.

Given the trades that has happened both Sakic and Dubas have signaled some kind of foresight for their respective teams.

Sakic could have signed Kerfoot to the same deal that Leafs have signed him; but he chose to trade him for Kadri.

Is Sakic's foresight as a GM better? Is Dubas' foresight as a GM better? we will get an answer at the end of the season I assume but for now it looks like both teams have benefited from the trade at least based on the small sample size.

After we have had 82 game sample + post season sample we will have a better insight.

Given that Kerfoot's line is facing against oppositions' 3rd lines in the games we have seen where oppositions' third lines haven't scored as much I would say Kerfoot is facing a lighter QoC than Kadri.
 

PromisedLand

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I don't think that's fair, Barrie is a fantastic player. The problem with Tyson is he has some weird weaknesses which makes him a very polarizing player. When he played for us, there were games where he drove me head-against-a-wall crazy, which I concluded that he's just a streaky player; either everything goes right for him in two weeks of action and then everything falls apart. Because of that, he's part of the "pros have to outweigh the cons" type of player for me.

The one weakness which I don't understand is his passing skills for a player as good as he is. I mean he's better than Jordie Benn and Ceci type of defenders, no doubt, but his passing skills are very much below-average for an offensive calibre player of his stature. He failed in Roy's system (call him bad coach or good coach) which relied on breaking it out of the zone with passes, which he simply isn't good at. He is a puck-rusher at heart and needs that system to get the most out of him. Makar isn't as good as Barrie is in other categories such as shot, but Makar creams him in making crisp breakout passes.
.

I saw Makar last playoffs the guy was a beast. Also Makar is 20 and Barrie is 28. Makar's shot will develop easily; I see Makar make plays that not many d-men in the league make and at such a young age. Yes Makar will make mistakes but the way he transitions the puck from the d-zone is pretty elite; you can't teach that kind of hockey IQ.

I think Makar will accomplish more than Barrie at 28; by the time Makar is 22/23. This is not a knock on Barie, Barrie is a fine d-man but Makar IMO is going to turn out to be one of the best Ds in the League not just on the team
 
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Merrrlin

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It depends on how both Kadri and Kerfoot/Barrie impact their new team's success. I say team success not point production because scoring is important but not getting scored on is equally as important.

If Kadri scores 40 points but plays well defensively; and also contributes in the playoff success for the Avs
while
Kerfoot scores 50 points and Barrie 50 points but don't play well defensively and do not contribute to playoff success.

then how does one quantify which team really benefited from trade?

In the end for me it is always going to be team success impact.

Also if Barrie walks; basically the trade boils down to Kadri+Rosen for Kerfoot (and Barrie for a season) is that really a good trade for the Leafs?

I guess we will have the answer by the end of the season for sure; at least part of the answer until we know where Barrie re-signs and how the post season success of both the Avs and Leafs measure up.

So far it is looking like a win-win scenario; but the sample size is too small to say anything definitive. We gonna have to wait for a while to really quantify the impact of the trade on both clubs

I mean if that's the case, then it just may be that the surrounding cast and coaching is better. Leafs never got past the 1st round with Kadri.
 

DarkKnight

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If people can’t see that Kerfoot’s wingers are driving that line, then....Not that he’s hasn’t been fine, just a closer inspection suggests he isn’t the catalyst at the moment.
 

DarkKnight

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I mean, if they are equal, is it really a win win? Toronto did get Tyson Barrie in the deal as well...

If Kadri scores 20g, and 10-15 points more than Kerfoot for 1m more AND Tyson Barrie walks, then I would still say Toronto does a little better. That's assuming Rosen can be a bottom pairing defenceman at the NHL level.

If Kerfoot and Kadri are close and Barrie score 50+ points, and actually signs with TO, this is a great deal for Dubas unless Rosen can be a good top 4 guy.

Colorado is able to do that because they have so much talent on the back end.

What were Kadri and Kerfoot's QoCs so far this year?
The Leafs don’t never Kerfoot to be equal, considering Barrie was the big piece in the deal. Kerfoot isn’t as good as Naz, he just isn’t and that’s fine. Kadri was under utilized in the three hole, so the disparity is less pronounced. I find this attempt to elevate Kerfoot to justify the trade a weird angle, given it was Kadri that got us a D man, that was the main thrust.

If you’re concerned with the trade, Barrie is the focus...his bad reads and soft play in the D zone are noteworthy, resigning him for 7-8 million at this point looks absurd.
 

TheShape

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Barrie has been totally neutered by Babcock. The shackles are on. Barrie is what he is and that’s a free roaming offensive d man. That is how he made his name and there comes a point where you just have to trust the player and let them do their thing.

I was far from a Gardiner fan, but Babs did the same thing. Gardiner is one of the best skating defensemen in the league and yet was limited to the stretch pass. Same thing happening to Barrie. It’s a complete waste of the player’s abilities.

It’s hard to gauge any of these players when this “system” couldn’t be anymore opposite of how this personnel should be deployed.
 

ULF_55

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The Leafs don’t never Kerfoot to be equal, considering Barrie was the big piece in the deal. Kerfoot isn’t as good as Naz, he just isn’t and that’s fine. Kadri was under utilized in the three hole, so the disparity is less pronounced. I find this attempt to elevate Kerfoot to justify the trade a weird angle, given it was Kadri that got us a D man, that was the main thrust.

If you’re concerned with the trade, Barrie is the focus...his bad reads and soft play in the D zone are noteworthy, resigning him for 7-8 million at this point looks absurd.

I believe at the same age Kerfoot and Kadri produced similar numbers.

Now Kerfoot should still improve, as did Kadri, but Kadri probably won't improve going forward.

Doesn't matter, Kadri can still be a 2nd. line center, something he'd never be in Toronto, nor is it likely Kerfoot is ever a 2nd. line center in Toronto.
 
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notDatsyuk

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Technically QoT and QoC together should help paint some picture. Quality may be subjective but production is not. If the Line 1 is playing against Line 3 of the opposition

Line 1 puts up lots of point
Line 3 from opposition does not put up a lot of point

I would assume Line 1 QoT is much higher as line-mates are producing; and QoC for Line 3 from the opposition is much higher because Line 3 isn't matching Line 1 production.

Example:

Bergeron line against Tavares line
On Bergeron line you had three players (Bergeron, Marchand, Pastrnak) all putting up points versus Hyman-Tavares-Marner where the production really came from Tavares-Marner

at least for me
QoT for Bergeron line is much higher than QoT for Tavares line; this would imply that the QoC for Tavares line is much greater than QoC for Bergeron line in that match-up in that game.

Now when Bergeron line plays against other teams; how do those teams respond? With their top line or do they have a shut down line? If other teams respond by playing their top line then Bergeron line has a high QoC as they might have a high chance of getting scored on; but if Bergeron line plays oppositions' shut-down line then probability of Bergeron line getting scored on is much lower

Then you have other metrics like zone starts. zone time, corsi (i hate corsi btw); GF%; chances forced% etc... to really evaluate how the said line performed.

Hypothetical scenario:

Suppose Kadri line keeps on outchancing their match-up every game but don't produce as much does that mean Kadri line is productive? It would depend I guess to look at if Kadri line is giving up goals and not scoring goals.

Corsi and chances are stats that could shed light onsomethings but in the end goals matter. plus/minus is stat that is laughed at but really in the end the game is always decided by who scored the most goals or who gave up less goals.

So really, it is not just production but also not giving goals that matters. Bergeron line excels at scoring on others while not giving up goals themslves.

Now between Kadri and Kerfoot lines who is going to be a stronger net positive for their team success in the long run? We really have to wait for a while; at the moment the sample size isn't big enough to properly quantify it.

This is where foresight comes into play because after the end of the season we can lay a claim based on results but that is a hindsight is 20-20 scenario.

Given the trades that has happened both Sakic and Dubas have signaled some kind of foresight for their respective teams.

Sakic could have signed Kerfoot to the same deal that Leafs have signed him; but he chose to trade him for Kadri.

Is Sakic's foresight as a GM better? Is Dubas' foresight as a GM better? we will get an answer at the end of the season I assume but for now it looks like both teams have benefited from the trade at least based on the small sample size.

After we have had 82 game sample + post season sample we will have a better insight.

Given that Kerfoot's line is facing against oppositions' 3rd lines in the games we have seen where oppositions' third lines haven't scored as much I would say Kerfoot is facing a lighter QoC than Kadri.
I completely agree, especially with the 'wait for a bigger sample size'.

All I was pointing out was that you can't just assume that, for example, Kadri, just because he's on a #2 line, is facing higher QoC than Kerfoot on a #3 line. Yes, if all coaches play #1 vs #1, #2 vs #2, #3 vs #3, and #4 vs #4, but we know that isn't the case. Both intentionally and due to game flow, any line could face any other line at any time.

And again, because it's so early in the season, one team may have played against top teams, while the other may have played only bottom feeders.

I think it's way too early to make a blanket statement like "Kadri has faced a higher QoC".
 
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paulhiggins

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I would be trading Tyson Barrie soon, before he is subtracted from the Kadri return. He is not great defensively and at the end of the year will be worth absolutely nothing to us. Maybe between him and Kapanen we can add some physicality with some term.
 

Walshy7

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Without knowing if Barrie signs etc.

Would you undue the Kadri trade?

no, it was time to move on from Kadri and im thankful we got a #3D and #3C out of the deal tbh. If barrie walks so be it, we tried twice with kadri and we never got passed the first round so needed to try something different. We have a more suited 3C (kadri is a 2C) and a dman for our top 4
 

4thline

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Without knowing if Barrie signs etc.

Would you undue the Kadri trade?

No. The value of Barrie at 2.75 is huge to this team. 2.75 is/was essentially a hard cap for filling that spot without setting domino's in motion. And that's *with* saving a million on the Kadri-Kerfoot swap. So to undo the trade you're looking at 1.75. Shattenkirk had yet to be bought out, so we're pretty much gambling on a signing a rebounding Sekera, Ben Hutton, or someone like Del Zotto. Or I suppose we could have opened up the trade route but the list of available top 4 RHD's making no more than 3.5 on a team willing to retain to 1.75 isn't long, and the price wouldn't be cheap.

Of course in hindsight we would have been better off keeping Rosen and the 3rd, trading Kadri for Kerfoot and a 1st, then signing Shattenkirk. But that's kind of a high bar of clairvoyance to know that Shatty would be bought out, that he'd sign for what he did, that he'd choose the microscope of TO to try for a bounceback year, and that he'd bounceback
 

Buds17

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Without knowing if Barrie signs etc.

Would you undue the Kadri trade?

Highly doubt it. Kerfoot is still a better option against the cap for the 3C role going forward than Kadri would have been. Kerfoot and Barrie with contract extensions would also cost more in trade than Kadri and Rosen.
 

crue7

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Im gonna say it, I havent been overly impressed with Barrie.

Yes, its October. Hopefully by April hes changed my mind. I also have only watched 4 of 7 games.

At this point if we had to sign one of the two UFAs but lose the other its Muzz.

Relative to expectations Kerfoot has looked much better then Barrie IMO

That's what you get with Barrie. He's so dynamic on the rush that he's worth the risk on the D zone deficiencies.

The guy willed us to the playoffs last year with his incredible play off the rush and his good shot off the point. You haven't seen what Barrie is capable of yet, maybe he's being neutered by Babs on the rush. Barrie is a great commodity to have for the PP and to drive offence from your own end. I would like to see him on the 1st PP unit just to try it out. Avs PP was lethal last year and Barrie drove that PP.
 

thewave

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That's what you get with Barrie. He's so dynamic on the rush that he's worth the risk on the D zone deficiencies.

The guy willed us to the playoffs last year with his incredible play off the rush and his good shot off the point. You haven't seen what Barrie is capable of yet, maybe he's being neutered by Babs on the rush. Barrie is a great commodity to have for the PP and to drive offence from your own end. I would like to see him on the 1st PP unit just to try it out. Avs PP was lethal last year and Barrie drove that PP.

Right now he doesn't seem worth it to me. Jake Gardiner may actually have a bigger net positive influence on the D than this guy. He better tighten up his game because for 2 extra points and a freaking -4 (less 1 goal Jake has and -1) I am not seeing a 8m player. I don't care if he is as nimble on his skates like Nylander, he is a -63 over his career, Jake +9 in Toronto of all places. Tyson Barrie better raise his game a tier or two to be worth 8m that's for sure. The Barrie I see now is not worth more than the Jake Gardiner we just lost or the contract.
 

thewave

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Without knowing if Barrie signs etc.

Would you undue the Kadri trade?

The Barrie trade itself I would do. Kadri kinda had to go but I would have cut my losses on Ceci and signed Gardiner to a 4x4 as well. I would not pay Barrie 8m anyways. He has a whole lotta game to tighten up, the guys an adventure.
 
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