Prospect Info: Top Shelf Prospects: Detroit Red Wings

[LastWordArmy]

http://lastwordonsports.com/top-shelf-prospects-detroit-red-wings-2/


Top Shelf Prospects: Detroit Red Wings

The Detroit Red Wings certainly appear to have a deep prospect group, and they have gotten a ton of hype at other sites for the depth of the group. I’m not as high on them as some are though. I don’t see a surefire elite prospect in the group, and Detroit has long been living on a reputation as the best drafting team in hockey. I take nothing away from their drafting from the early 90s to 2004, they got multiple superstar late round picks, such as Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg. Even in 2003 they were grabbing Jimmy Howard and in 2004 Johan Franzen. However since the 2005 draft I really don’t think the Wings have deserved the reputation they’ve been given. Even with their slow tendency to promote prospects, we still have not seen the team draft a single legitimate top-6 NHL forward since 2005, and that was 8 years ago.

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[Kronwalled55]

we still have not seen the team draft a single legitimate top-6 NHL forward since 2005, and that was 8 years ago.

Look at the top 6 players on the Red Wings from 2006-now. Kind of slim pickens when for the most part. Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, and Filppula were there for how long, then Babcock would put 1 or 2 guys who didn't belong up there.

 

[PullHard]

How we draft and how we assemble a roster are two very unique things in comparison to a lot of teams.

Saying we haven't drafted well in the last several years means nothing, because unlike other teams, you won't see our picks in the NHL for about what, 5 or 6 years anyways.

Saying we had weaker than usual drafts in the mid 2000s is fine, but how can you say guys drafted in 09,10,11 are bad draft picks? they are still babies in Detroit's system.

Saying that we haven't seen them draft a legit top 6 prospect since 2005 could likely end up being extremely false. Saying that Nyquist, Tatar, Jarnkrok won't be top 6ers is pretty bold, as Nyquist was already playing some top 6 minutes last playoffs, and will likely be a regular there for years to come, and Jarnkrok will likely end up being a top 6 C out of necessity at the very least one day.

 

[SirKillalot]

How we draft and how we assemble a roster are two very unique things in comparison to a lot of teams.

Saying we haven't drafted well in the last several years means nothing, because unlike other teams, you won't see our picks in the NHL for about what, 5 or 6 years anyways.

Saying we had weaker than usual drafts in the mid 2000s is fine, but how can you say guys drafted in 09,10,11 are bad draft picks? they are still babies in Detroit's system.

Saying that we haven't seen them draft a legit top 6 prospect since 2005 could likely end up being extremely false. Saying that Nyquist, Tatar, Jarnkrok won't be top 6ers is pretty bold, as Nyquist was already playing some top 6 minutes last playoffs, and will likely be a regular there for years to come, and Jarnkrok will likely end up being a top 6 C out of necessity at the very least one day.

Agreed.

When talking about drafting, one needs to think about context between different teams. Detroit has a different strategy than most teams, because they always draft from the lower positions.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Meanwhile the Wings also haven’t drafted a goalie with legitimate NHL potential.

So you decided to write an article on the Wings prospect pool and managed to gloss over Mrazek?

 

[SoupNazi]

Meanwhile the Wings also haven’t drafted a goalie with legitimate NHL potential. To summarize, in 8 years we have no top 6 forwards, one top 4 defender (and one that is still somewhat unproven), and no NHL goalies drafted.

Petr Mrazek???

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I always appreciate someone taking the time. But the reason the author might not be as high on the Wings prospect pool is it is clear he knows next to nothing about anybody in it.

I feel like starting a sticky thread that has the title, IS THAT ELITE?!?!?! Posting anytime a prospect does something crazy.

Whatever the cut off on elite seems to be it must be right before we get to Mrazek, Jarnkrok, Sproul and the gang, that way we continue this logic.

I know a lot of fan-bases like to fall back on the Wings prospects haven't done anything and from 04-06 we clearly had a pretty bad spell, thank you over age Franzen for saving one of those years. But there is big uptick again shortly after in terms of how we feel about these guys, now is when they are breaking through.So poke holes in all you want I guess, but whenever I see it, there is more desperation it appears that it is over than actually knowing these prospects. Sure they won't all hit their ceiling and Wings fans might have unreasonable expectations on more than a few, but they are awfully talented, winning stuff together and I just think the rest of the league praying this is the end is in for a brutal surprise.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

To state the obvious; it is difficult to break into the top six of a good team that year-after-year sees itself and treats itself as a cup contender.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I am curious if you're top 5 in terms of prospects at your position, aren't you elite? I argue that based on what he has accomplished at this point Mrazek is top 3 in terms of goalies, doesn't he have to be elite?

It's getting to the point when hit with the Wings don't have elite guys we really shouldn't put up with those comments with Mrazek in the system.

You can pick holes in some of our big D, Jarnkrok, Jurco, Mantha and Frk, but what is there to pick on about Petr? He sometimes gives up the top of the net too easily, but he is as good a goalie prospect as there is in the world and he has a very real chance at making his countries Olympic roster already.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

It's getting to the point when hit with the Wings don't have elite guys we really shouldn't put up with those comments with Mrazek in the system.

It's become a trope now. Pundits who are too lazy to do any in-depth research just say "Well, they don't have any really good guys!"

and then when guys do well, they have the benefit of running with the "the Wings have pulled off another steal" trope too. It's an all-you-can-eat buffet for lazy analysis.

 

[LastWordArmy]

It's become a trope now. Pundits who are too lazy to do any in-depth research just say "Well, they don't have any really good guys!"

and then when guys do well, they have the benefit of running with the "the Wings have pulled off another steal" trope too. It's an all-you-can-eat buffet for lazy analysis.

I think there is a difference between guys like Subban, Huberdeau, Skinner, and even other young guys that jump in on other teams and make an impact.

There is also the fact that the bar is set very high in Detroit with having players like Datsyuk and Zetterberg, being draft gems, and such caliber players that are TRUE elite.

When we take a look at AHL, even, Detroit has not had a player that just absolutely tore it up and even Tatar and Nyquist are stuck there due to NHL roster being swollen with veterans, sort of speak, and it is hard to really know what they can do in NHL. Both of these players have NOT dominated AHL, except maybe Tatar in the playoffs, to a point where everyone was wowed.

There is no denying the fact that the upcoming crop of players is looking VERY GOOD for Detroit, but in the past eight years they have failed to graduate an accomplished player into their roster...an Elite top six forward.

While, even today, right now...Wings have a top six that is probably not going to include a young player like Nyquist or Tatar.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I think there is a difference between guys like Subban, Huberdeau, Skinner, and even other young guys that jump in on other teams and make an impact.

What do players like that have to do with Detroit? Detroit has been too successful (in most cases) to draft those sorts of players. I'm sure they'd love to have taken Subban, but so would everybody else.

If you want to judge Detroit's drafting (which the elite player thing suggests), then you should judge it relative to the picks they actually had. Detroit can only draft the players available. This sort of analysis is biased toward bad, zero-depth teams with their sexy picks who will get 20 minutes of icetime, put up 50 points, and end up a -15. That's not Detroit's world.

When we take a look at AHL, even, Detroit has not had a player that just absolutely tore it up and even Tatar and Nyquist are stuck there due to NHL roster being swollen with veterans, sort of speak, and it is hard to really know what they can do in NHL. Both of these players have NOT dominated AHL, except maybe Tatar in the playoffs, to a point where everyone was wowed.

and


While, even today, right now...Wings have a top six that is probably not going to include a young player like Nyquist or Tatar.

Nyquist was 1st in points when he was called up. He was 10th when he was called up last season. He's had sustained success at the AHL level. Both Nyquist and Tatar were excellent at the NHL level last season. It sounds an awful lot like you're penalizing Detroit prospects because the team fields a competitive NHL lineup. Just because a given player has good players ahead of him does not mean that he's a worse player because of it. Is Malkin lessened because he plays on a second line?

and for the record, Mrazek was fantastic in the playoffs and stole series. Judging by some of your other comments, though, it doesn't seem like you were watching.

There is no denying the fact that the upcoming crop of players is looking VERY GOOD for Detroit, but in the past eight years they have failed to graduate an accomplished player into their roster...an Elite top six forward.

Why are you judging the current prospect pool based on the failures of previous ones? Does the fact that guys like Dick Axelsson and Johan Ryno chickened out on the whole North America thing affect the player that Ryan Sproul will become? That's not to mention that Detroit has shifted to a different direction in the draft that's more CHL-centric, so the players we're talking about weren't drafting with the same criteria in mind.

It feels an awful lot like you're fishing for reasons not to believe in this current prospect pool. The truth is, they stand on their own merits; they stand on how they perform. Who's ahead of them or who was drafted either five years or a few picks before them, none of that stuff matters. It's all narrative fluff. All that matters is one prospect at a time, evaluated as an individual progressing year by year.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I think there is a difference between guys like Subban, Huberdeau, Skinner, and even other young guys that jump in on other teams and make an impact.

There is also the fact that the bar is set very high in Detroit with having players like Datsyuk and Zetterberg, being draft gems, and such caliber players that are TRUE elite.

When we take a look at AHL, even, Detroit has not had a player that just absolutely tore it up and even Tatar and Nyquist are stuck there due to NHL roster being swollen with veterans, sort of speak, and it is hard to really know what they can do in NHL. Both of these players have NOT dominated AHL, except maybe Tatar in the playoffs, to a point where everyone was wowed.

There is no denying the fact that the upcoming crop of players is looking VERY GOOD for Detroit, but in the past eight years they have failed to graduate an accomplished player into their roster...an Elite top six forward.

While, even today, right now...Wings have a top six that is probably not going to include a young player like Nyquist or Tatar.

Nyquist was the leading scorer on his callup this year and has been a point a game guy since he dropped into the AHL. That is dominating the league, for me that is the third best league in the world and it is closer to the second (the KHL) than the second is to the first.

Their top 6 will include a 2004 older draft pick in Franzen and a 2005 2nd round pick in Abdelkader. Abdelkader is not a top 6 forward according to everyone, but just in point of fact they will run two guys out from probably their worst draft stretch in the last 20+ years 2004-2008. Most Wings fans dump on those drafts, but talent has proven out at the NHL level none the less.

Since the turn of the century

2000: Kronwall (1st), Kopecky (2nd), Liv (4th, passed away good goalie, never really made it in NA)
2001: Grigorenko (2nd, 1st pick for the Wings), Bykov (8th) good players didn't make it for a long stretch in NA
2002: Hudler (2nd, 1st pick for the Wings), Fleischmann (2nd), Filppula (3rd), Ericsson (9th)
2003: Howard (2nd, 1st pick for the Wings), Quincey (4th, 2nd pick),
2004: Franzen (3rd rounder, 1st pick for the Wings)
2005: Kindl (1st rounder) Abelkader (2nd), Helm (5th)
2006: Emmerton (2nd, 1st Wings selection), Matthias (2nd)
2007: Smith (1st), Andersson (3rd, 2nd Wings pick)
2008: Nyquist (4th), this is looking like a very bad draft Gus is saving it by himself
2009: Ferraro (2nd, 1st pick by the Wings), Tatar (2nd). Jensen (5th), Callahan (6th) and Almqvist (8th) appear to maybe have futures with the club or league along with Ferraro to some varying degrees. Tatar appears to be the stud here.
2010: Riley Sheahan (1st), Jarnkrok (2nd, top prospect), Pulkkinen (4th), Mrazek (5th)

The last couple are too close to call one way or the other. For instance not a big believer in Pulkkinen. In any event the Wings still have a lot of homemade talent pushing them these days. Franzen for instance is the third leading goal scorer in his draft year after a couple guys named Malkin and Ovechkin. More than Andrew Laad for instance.

The Wings slow play these guys and always state you should get two players out of each draft. In several years they didn't have the first pick. Plus if we are holding everyone to where is the Datsyuk and Zetterberg that is an awfully tough standard. At the time they came through Grigorenko might have been the most celebrated guy in the system. He like Dick Axelsson never came and stuck it out, plus Grigorenko had the nasty auto accident.

But around the league who compares favorably to Datsyuk and Zetterberg, maybe Benn?

What I can say is this is the best the system has been in a depth and talented ceilings scenario since the late 80's and early 90's. They have a lot of bullets in the chamber, who is the stud is hard to pick out because they have a bunch of high ceiling guys with some flaws in their game. That is what you get when you draft them where they draft. Zetterberg's skating and size were concerns, Datsyuk's defensive acumen (I know crazy right) was a question mark along with size on his way up.

It's easy not to call these guys bluechips, because they didn't go in the top 15. However, what most of them have accomplished post draft and their skill sets are often overlooked in an effort to talk about the inevitable cliff fall that is coming. Do we have a Datsyuk or Zetterberg? I don't know, but we don't know we don't have a star in this group either. What we do know is we have a bunch of kids with nice NHL upsides that are going to get every chance to progress cautiously. You ask where they are, they are right where the Wings want them to be. Looks strange to people that don't follow the team, but this has been the stated plan since they left the lockout that wiped out the whole season. They are following their blueprint and have stocked the shelves and are developing from within.

The Wings still produce a lot of NHL talent, it is on some of these younger guys to be stars and surpass some of the previous drafts talents that haven't quite panned out to their ceilings. Many of them will have something that has held back a couple guys and that is opportunities. Hudler for instance absolutely did dominate the AHL, he just couldn't win ice time battles and beat out those in front of him. Part of what has made Detroit what they are is to win those positions you have to take your game to another level and round out your trouble spots, that helps these guys in the long run.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

By the way I can pick the Ducks, Sabres, and Stars systems I feel are in the top 10 and ask where are the Datsyuk and Zetterberg. Could have said the same thing about the Lightning before they drafted Drouin. A player I like, but a winger unlikely to ever be truly as valuable even with expected huge offensive numbers as either D and Z.

That is an unfair standard, where are your top 10 players in the world projections from your system. Well they went in the top 10 picks, we have to develop guys with flaws and make the best of it as we have done for years. What team do you trust to do that more than Detroit?

 

[Frk It]

What do players like that have to do with Detroit? Detroit has been too successful (in most cases) to draft those sorts of players. I'm sure they'd love to have taken Subban, but so would everybody else.

P.K. Subban was taken 43rd overall in 2007. So every team had a chance to take him (1st round, 30 picks).

We took Brendan Smith at 27 last year.

At least I'm assuming your referring to P.K.

But technically we could have had Malcolm too, had we not traded our 1st rounder to TB for KFQ.

 

[Henkka]

No other team has drafted more caphit value to NHL with current caphits than Detroit. That's a very good way to rank organizations drafting. Maybe Chicago can match the value with the luxury of their higher picks but have also had a great draft depth.

That pretty much tells the whole story who drafts great and who not. And Red Wings average draft position has been by far the league-lowest during the last 20 years.

We are not pulling superstars from the hat every year, but when compared to other organizations, there just isn't a better drafting team in long run.

 

[Flowah]

Saying Detroit drafts very well is not mutually exclusive with the idea that Detroit has yet to draft a legitimate top6 NHL player since 2005. As you guys keep mentioning, it's tough to draft those kinds of players when you are consistently picking later and later.

 

[Dakkster]

No other team has drafted more caphit value to NHL with current caphits than Detroit. That's a very good way to rank organizations drafting. Maybe Chicago can match the value with the luxury of their higher picks but have also had a great draft depth.

That pretty much tells the whole story who drafts great and who not. And Red Wings average draft position has been by far the league-lowest during the last 20 years.

We are not pulling superstars from the hat every year, but when compared to other organizations, there just isn't a better drafting team in long run.

Has someone done a work-up or something of that? I'm really interested in looking at those numbers league-wide or even just in a limited way. Know where I can find it?

 

[Adityase]

This reminds me of all the articles I read about the Lions being good at drafting before the Millen debacle. The rationale was that they played more of their draft picks than other teams.

Everyone ignored the fact that it meant the lineup was easy to crack. And they never mentioned that those guys didn't last long until they were replaced by more recent draft picks...

 

[LastWordArmy]

The Wings still produce a lot of NHL talent, it is on some of these younger guys to be stars and surpass some of the previous drafts talents that haven't quite panned out to their ceilings. Many of them will have something that has held back a couple guys and that is opportunities. Hudler for instance absolutely did dominate the AHL, he just couldn't win ice time battles and beat out those in front of him. Part of what has made Detroit what they are is to win those positions you have to take your game to another level and round out your trouble spots, that helps these guys in the long run.

I think that the depth of Wings prospects is VERY deep right now. My issue is that the level of talent is VERY debatable, to me they are all maybes.

There is a strategy that is involved with the way AHL team is developing players that is, in my mind, no doubt starts with Kenny and Babs. What is important to note though, is that Nyquist and Tatar will not be the superstars Dats and Z are today. I just do not see them being that dynamic. When Dats and Z were drafted Detroit probably had one of the best Euro scouts in NHL...the playing field is more leveled now.

What is an elite level prospect? I am not sure. What Detroit has done with the picks they had is amazing, no doubt. Yet, if we look at those draft picks and what has turned out.. you can see players that are really good, that Detroit missed out on. Most teams also did, but it still remains a fact.

I think that guys like Datsyuk and Z skipped AHL for a reason and we have not had a draft pick that was able to make that jump in a long time. This is what this was all about, not about Detroit drafting poorly per say. The standard of measurement is different because of the winning Detroit has been able to accomplish and previous draft pedigree Detroit has had.

05 - Rask (21) Oshie (24) James Neal (33) Paul Stastny (44) Letang (62) Yandle (105)
06 - Lucic (50) Seabrook (52)
07 - Jamie Benn (129) PK Subban (43) Wayne Simmonds (61)
08 - Jacob Markstrom (31) Voynov (32) Travis Hamonic (53) Holtby (93)
09- Ryan O'Reilly (33) Jakob Silfverberg (39)


Those are just few gems we missed out on that play top minutes. Imagine we drafted above players? How EPIC Detroits system would HAVE been? These are all coulda/shoulda type of situation, but Wings have not had a player drafted like the above in a long time.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

^ Alright if we are holding the standard of Datsyuk and Zetterberg than there are this many prospects right now in the world that I give a decent chance of being better hockey players than those two.

MacKinnon
McDavid


That is it. Not going to put a single winger that can be a more impactful than those two. The long shot nature of being better than either is tremendously difficult, maybe Zetterberg is easier if you undervalue him. Once again if that is the standard you need to get off your high horse and appreciate what you have been witnessing for 20 years. Finding these players, jersey in the rafters at Joe Louis caliber players is tough.

What we should be targeting with this current group is Boston. A bunch of very talented players, needing maybe a free agent signing or a little something to put them over the top. Krejci and Bergeron are great, but they would be a poor-mans version of Datsyuk and Zetterberg.

Seriously teams that drafted there two superstars that close together are

Chicago top 5
Pittsburgh top 5
Washington top 5

A bunch of LA's talent is a function of top 15 picks or trading top 15 picks for star caliber players.

Boston is really the only non-tank team, that is also functionally built from mostly homegrown players. Even there they added Chara. But that should be the target. What Boston did is realistic and heck our prospect pool is bursting at the seems with second round steals, kind of what Boston is made up of.

Then you have Detroit 6th and 7th round.

They don't need all of these guys to hit, they need half to hit and then one or two to hit in a major way. You don't think Nyquist and Tatar are it, fine move down the list and hope somebody else does, that is the beauty of their pool right now. Also positive is it looks like Nyquist and Tatar are talented contributors at the NHL level so while not your superstars, nice depth out of those two and secondary scoring it would seem at worst.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

05 - Rask (21) Oshie (24) James Neal (33) Paul Stastny (44) Letang (62) Yandle (105)
06 - Lucic (50) Seabrook (52)
07 - Jamie Benn (129) PK Subban (43) Wayne Simmonds (61)
08 - Jacob Markstrom (31) Voynov (32) Travis Hamonic (53) Holtby (93)
09- Ryan O'Reilly (33) Jakob Silfverberg (39)


Those are just few gems we missed out on that play top minutes. Imagine we drafted above players? How EPIC Detroits system would HAVE been? These are all coulda/shoulda type of situation, but Wings have not had a player drafted like the above in a long time.

Would just like to point out that Seabrook is Keith not Brent. The other thing is that some of those players would have been considered reaches had we picked them earlier, though after the first 20 or so picks the draft is a giant crap shoot.

In 05 we had Howard so Rask wasn't really an option. IIRC Oshie was also a bit of reach, he was ranked in the 40s or later, Stastny was passed over in his 1st draft year ,though he was an excellent pick, & was labeled as a 3rd-4th round pick.

IIRC in 06 Lucic was a giant reach by the Bruins & they were lucky it paid off. It's the same way how Bertuzzi was a reach for the Wings the past year but they picked for need.

In 07 we picked Smith, who still has #2 potential, in the 1st. Picking Subban or Simmonds in the 1st would have been HUGE reaches, Subban was thought to have been a 3rd round pick & Simmonds wasn't even ranked. If we took them with our 1st, our only chance to pick them, we'd have been taking a huge an unnecessary risk.

In 08 we were taking a goalie regardless, it was either Markstrom or McCollum so bringing up Voynov or Hamonic is a bit of a moot point. Holtby is a goalie but we had already taking a goalie so there wasn't a need to take another.

In 09 we traded back & we took Ferraro. This is the only one where we had a chance to pick either of the players but unfortunately injuries really hurt Ferraro's CHL development. O'Reilly is an obvious choice to take over Ferraro now but on draft day and even the year after the draft it was a still a toss up.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

In 09 we traded back & we took Ferraro. This is the only one where we had a chance to pick either of the players but unfortunately injuries really hurt Ferraro's CHL development. O'Reilly is an obvious choice to take over Ferraro now but on draft day and even the year after the draft it was a still a toss up.

Ryan O'Reilly is probably still in the AHL if we pick him. That is what angers some people around here, but think about that for a second. Also think of it from the perspective of ROR who would have already lost millions under that plan, bet he is happy we didn't pick him.

 

[Bench]

Ryan O'Reilly is probably still in the AHL if we pick him. That is what angers some people around here, but think about that for a second. Also think of it from the perspective of ROR who would have already lost millions under that plan, bet he is happy we didn't pick him.

You would have to admit, though, it's a shade easier for a lottery team like Colorado to play a guy like O'Reilly so early than it is for a playoff team. If the Wings were picking in the top 5 with any regularity, you'd have to assume they'd be playing more young players.

Not many consistent playoff teams fold guys in so young, so the Wings aren't alone in this respect. That said, the Wings will be forced to play their guys coming up or trade them away.

It will be extremely interesting to see what happens with a guy like Mantha, who is one of the more dynamic picks in recent memory for the Wings.