Top Centers by WAR Heading Into the 2019-20 Season

[Aceboogie]

Not a fan of refining a data model with "the eye test." A data model is objective with vastly higher sample size. Take the model and results for what its worth. Dont muddy the waters tryign to introduce highly, highly biased subjective eye test analysis (with an untrained hockey eye and minuscule sample size for most players).

The best models are the models that have some surprising players much higher in the rankings, because it signals a divergence between conventional wisdom and objective results. That player shouldnt be arbtraily ranked lower because it might make the regular fan scoff at your WAR model. Instead, it should be the fan who has the question their own evaluation of that player (are they watching enough of them, do they play a style of game a fan has a bias against)

 

[Mrs Garrett]

I hate the word "WAR", reminds me of a tough time in my youth.

that coach, Michael Babcock should really play taylour Matthews more.

 

[LarKing]

Increasing domestic manufacturing.

 

[burstnbloom]

WAR! What is it good for?

evaluating players. sing it.

 

[burstnbloom]

Nice to see Sean "not a top 50 player according to TSN" Couturier ranked as the 14th best Center in WAR. Then again, he's top 10-20 in pretty much every metric you can reasonably use to rate a forward.

Did this really happen? How is Couts not on a top 50 players list?

 

[Rebels57]

Did this really happen? How is Couts not on a top 50 players list?

He finished 51 on TSN's list - He's the new Bergeron when it comes to how badly underrated he is by national media. Back to back 30+ goal, 76 point seasons and finished 2nd and 6th in Selke voting..but not a top 50 player lol. Bergeron is obviously appropriately rated now that Boston has had playoff success. Guessing Couturier and the Flyers will need a long memorable playoff run before guys like Couturier and Giroux start getting respect.

 

[burstnbloom]

He finished 51 on TSN's list - He's the new Bergeron when it comes to how badly underrated he is by national media. Bergeron is obviously appropriately rated now. Guessing Couturier and the Flyers will need a long memorable playoff run before guys like Couturier and Giroux start getting respect.

That's crazy. When you factor in contract I don't know that there are 10 players I'd rather have than Couturier. Elite defender (bergeron level elite), good offensively, can play with top talent, can drive a line and the flyers are absolutely robbing him on that contract.

 

[Rebels57]

That's crazy. When you factor in contract I don't know that there are 10 players I'd rather have than Couturier. Elite defender (bergeron level elite), good offensively, can play with top talent, can drive a line and the flyers are absolutely robbing him on that contract.

$4.33 for 3 more years..it's a top 10 contract in the league without question.

 

[Aladyyn]

That's crazy. When you factor in contract I don't know that there are 10 players I'd rather have than Couturier. Elite defender (bergeron level elite), good offensively, can play with top talent, can drive a line and the flyers are absolutely robbing him on that contract.

I don't think I could name 10 even without taking contracts into consideration

 

[COHawk]

I honestly think the Oilers lose a lot more than 7 additional games without McDavid.

 

[Midnight Judges]

evaluating players. sing it.

Uh I believe the real words are "absolutely nuthin!"

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

Crosby still my man crush and a stud I see, even in WAR.

 

[NHL WAR]

Did you take into account the missed games for Bergeron? I think you did that for Hall in the last one you did.

15% of a player's was determined by their WAR per 1650 minutes. That was all I did to boost guys like Bergeron, Matthews and Malkin that miss 15-20 games. I made a special case for Hall ( upping the per 1650 part to 30%) because he played less than half the season.

 

[NHL WAR]

What WAR model are you using, because there is a lot of variation between them. Something to keep in mind is that (AFAIK) none of the commonly available WAR models do particularly well as predictive metrics. IOW they work better for describing what a player did than predicting what they will do. The @DTMAH model showed good results in out of sample tests, but it hasn’t been publically available for a few years now.

I developed this WAR model myself: A Winning Statistic. And you're right, I would label it as more of a descriptive statistic. I plan to do some more testing of its predictive qualities in the future.

 

[oobga]

Not many #1 OA picks on that list.

 

[Nemesis Prime]

Advanced stats.

Now lets do centers based on what angle they raise their stick to while shooting.

 

[Panthaz89]

how is Malkin on there for defense? I rarely ever see him do anything on D and he gets deked around quite easily.

 

[NHL WAR]

how is Malkin on there for defense? I rarely ever see him do anything on D and he gets deked around quite easily.

I imagine it is a "if you have the puck, the other team can't score" type good 'defense.' Also, he had 0.05 defensive goals saved. So technically it was above average, but in reality not impactful whatsoever.

 

[burstnbloom]

Uh I believe the real words are "absolutely nuthin!"

I like mine better.