Top-5 scorers from each team 2021-22

[Love]

I agree. The Canuck predictions are a little light. Because we’ve had short seasons the last two years you need to look at pace rather than career highs as most of these players are young. Here’s my numbers assuming health and fairly modest projections imo.

VAN
1 Pettersson - 82 (young star player on the rise so expect modest improvement from career high 80 point pace)
2 Miller - 70 (paced for 66 without EP last year)
3 Boeser - 72 (paced for 72 without EP last year)
4 Hughes - 62 (paced 60 last year)
5 Horvat - 60 (paced 57 and Garland will be winger this year)

The team has many holes but we really have some great offensive depth. Even a guy like Garland or Hoglander could conceivably be 5th on this list.

 

[The Podium]

Lol yeah it's unlikely but if he picks up garbage off mcdrai, I can see it.

Hyman isn’t a clean up the garbage kind of player. It’s frustrating as hell that he isn’t, he has the skill set to do it.

 

[OilersCoffeeArtBeer]

Hyman isn’t a clean up the garbage kind of player. It’s frustrating as hell that he isn’t, he has the skill set to do it.

So far I have read comparable to Ryan Smith and Patrick maroon. If he is anything like them, he will reach 60 points(playing in the top 6)

 

[WetcoastOrca]

So far I have read comparable to Ryan Smith and Patrick maroon. If he is anything like them, he will reach 60 points(playing in the top 6)

Lol! He was already playing with Marner and Matthews. Assuming Drai and McDavid play on separate lines and Hyman is not on the first unit PP there is no way he hits those numbers. Ryan Smith was a first unit PP fixture.
And Nurse goes from pacing at 53 points last year to 78 points or about a 50% increase!!!!!
Puljaarvi paced for 37 points last year and he’s now getting 71 points or a 90% increase!!!!

 

[OilersCoffeeArtBeer]

Lol! He was already playing with Marner and Matthews. Assuming Drai and McDavid play on separate lines and Hyman is not on the first unit PP there is no way he hits those numbers. Ryan Smith was a first unit PP fixture.
And Nurse goes from pacing at 53 points last year to 78 points or about a 50% increase!!!!!

I'm a Homer
I do enjoy how you didn't talk mcdavid and draisaitls numbers down though

 

[Necrobutcher]

Lol! He was already playing with Marner and Matthews. Assuming Drai and McDavid play on separate lines and Hyman is not on the first unit PP there is no way he hits those numbers. Ryan Smith was a first unit PP fixture.

Was on pace for 63 points last season so sure he can hit 60 with McDavid or Drai.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Was on pace for 63 points last season so sure he can hit 60 with McDavid or Drai.

His original prediction was 74 points. I agree that 60 points is not unreasonable.

 

[Necrobutcher]

His original prediction was 74 points. I agree that 60 points is not unreasonable.

I see. That's also certainly in the realm of possibility. His PPG has been rising steadily every year.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I see. That's also certainly in the realm of possibility. His PPG has been rising steadily every year.

Without first unit PP time it’s highly unlikely and Edmonton had by far the best PP last year so he’s not seeing that unit. Not many 29 year olds improve their career high scoring pace by 15% especially when he’s already played with elite linemates. I mean anything can happen but we are trying to predict what is likely.

 

[Pavels Dog]

DET
1 Larkin - 63
2 Vrana - 59
3 Bertuzzi - 54
4 Zadina - 45
5 Hronek - 39

Pretty reasonably in an "nothing out of the ordinary happens" scenario.

I would hope that Wings see a little more production than that across the board but definitely no guarantees.

 

[Regal]

So every single Canuck will basically have career-worst seasons?

I think it will be just the opposite, the Lotto line should if healthy be able to replicate their 2019-2020 season and Horvat and Garland should be able to thrive now that Horvat should be unshackled and put in a more offensive role.
They should have two strong pp units and I think you are way off on Quinn. He's been pretty comparable to Makar points wise while being a year younger. An almost 20 point difference seems really big.

I think the Canucks will be a bit better, but I think you're overreacting. Pettersson's career high is 66, he has some injury concerns, and his career average pace is the same 76 points he's projected for here. Miller had never scored more than 58 points before coming to Vancouver and he paced for 71 last year. 67 isn’t unreasonable. Boeser has paced for 68 points in his career and is also an injury risk. 62 is probably low if he doesn't miss time, but not by much. Horvat paced for 57 points last year, so only 2 more than this, and his career high is only 6 more points at 61. Hughes is probably low but he paced for 60 points last year. Makar meanwhile was a point per game, so Makar paced for 22 points more just last year. A 20 point difference this year wouldn't be surprising. Makar is quite a bit better offensively at ES. One thing with the team is that if they do use two strong PP units, it will spread scoring out more among the top.

 

[majormajor]

CBJ
1 Laine - 69
2 Bjorkstrand - 57
3 Voracek - 53
4 Werenski - 52
5 Nyquist - 40

I find this for the Jackets to be implausible.

It's possible that Laine might bounce back and score 69 pts, but if he does that then someone is setting him up for a lot of goals. It's not going to happen unless Voracek or Bjorkstrand or Roslovic is getting a ton of assists and thus more points than shown here. I'd expect something more like:

Bjorkstrand - 63 pts
Voracek - 61 pts
Roslovic - 56 pts
Laine - 55 pts
Werenski - 52 pts

Laine gets back to 30 goals but he can't get much higher than that on this roster.

 

[txpd]

Pretty reasonable, but I think in general your scoring is too low. Except for Laine. No way he gets 69 points on Columbus hahaha

I also don't think Ovechkin will be that high, although I'd love for him to prove me wrong (as he's done in the past).

The Washington picks are as is often the case far off. Its like they arent really familiar with the Caps....which they often aren't.

John Carlson over the last 4 years starting with last season was points per game 0.85, 1.09, 0.88, 0.83. 60pts would be a pretty strong drop off based on 80 games.

Backstrom 87(60 assists)
Ovechkin 78(50 goals)
Carlson 70
Oshie 55
Kuznetsov 48

 

[Bruins4Lifer]

Boston

Marchand 98
Pastrnak 92
Bergeron 72
McAvoy 66
Hall 64

 

[missionAvs]

Trades could still happen (Eichel, Tarasenko, etc) but I wanted to get your early opinion on the top scorers from each team. I made a list, tell me what you think (this assumes everyone is mostly healthy except players that we already know will miss some part of the season like Gourde, Domi, Toews, Tuch, etc)

ANA
1 Zegras - 45 pts
2 Getzlaf - 44
3 Rakell - 42
4 Henrique - 40
5 Comtois - 39

ARI
1 Keller - 59
2 Kessel - 57
3 Schmaltz - 50
4 Chychrun - 47
5 Dvorak - 43

BOS
1 Pastrnak - 89
2 Marchand - 80
3 Bergeron - 72
4 Hall - 59
5 McAvoy - 48

BUF
1 Eichel - 82
2 Olofsson - 52
3 Dalhin - 45
4 Skinner - 44
5 Mittelstadt - 42

CGY
1 Gaudreau - 75
2 Tkachuk - 67
3 Lindholm - 64
4 Monahan - 52
5 Mangiapane - 45

CAR
1 Aho - 83
2 Svechnikov - 71
3 Teravainen - 66
4 Necas - 55
5 Trocheck - 49

CHI
1 Kane - 90
2 DeBrincat - 76
3 Jones - 52
4 Kubalik - 50
5 Dach - 48

COL
1 MacKinnon - 107
2 Rantanen - 94
3 Makar - 75
4 Landeskog - 66
5 Burakovsky - 53

CBJ
1 Laine - 69
2 Bjorkstrand - 57
3 Voracek - 53
4 Werenski - 52
5 Nyquist - 40

DAL
1 Seguin - 68
2 Radulov - 56
3 Robertson - 51
4 Benn - 50
5 Hintz - 48

DET
1 Larkin - 63
2 Vrana - 59
3 Bertuzzi - 54
4 Zadina - 45
5 Hronek - 39

EDM
1 McDavid - 116
2 Draisaitl - 103
3 Barrie - 58
4 Nugent-Hopkins - 54
5 Puljujarvi - 48

FLA
1 Huberdeau - 87
2 Barkov - 84
3 Reinhart - 66
4 Duclair - 49
5 Bennett - 46

LAK
1 Kopitar - 68
2 Iafallo - 52
3 Arvidsson - 50
4 Danault - 45
5 Kempe - 44

MIN
1 Kaprizov - 75
2 Fiala - 67
3 Zuccarello - 51
4 Eriksson Ek - 50
5 Dumba - 42

MTL
1 Suzuki - 62
2 Toffoli - 55
3 Hoffman - 54
4 Caufield - 45
5 Petry - 44

NSH
1 Forsberg - 59
2 Josi - 55
3 Johansen - 54
4 Duchene - 50
5 Granlund - 47

NJ
1 Hughes - 61
2 Hischier - 58
3 Hamilton - 56
4 Bratt - 42
5 Zacha - 39

NYI
1 Barzal - 73
2 Bailey - 56
3 Lee - 54
4 Nelson - 47
5 Wahlstrom - 44

NYR
1 Panarin - 87
2 Zibanejad - 75
3 Fox - 55
4 Lafreniere - 50
5 Kakko - 45

OTT
1 Stutzle - 59
2 Tkachuk - 56
3 Chabot - 53
4 Batherson - 47
5 Norris - 46

PHI
1 Couturier - 68
2 Giroux - 65
3 Van Riemsdyk - 55
4 Konecny - 52
5 Atkinson - 50

PIT
1 Crosby - 88
2 Malkin - 83
3 Guentzel - 66
4 Letang - 49
5 Rust - 48

SJ
1 Hertl - 57
2 Kane - 56
3 Couture - 54
4 Meier - 53
5 Karlsson - 50

STL
1 O'Reilly - 71
2 Perron - 66
3 Buchnevich - 60
4 Tarasenko - 57
5 Schenn - 53

SEA
1 Schwartz - 56
2 Eberle - 54
3 Giordano - 44
4 Donskoi - 43
5 Wennberg - 42

TB
1 Kucherov - 101
2 Point - 84
3 Stamkos - 75
4 Hedman - 69
5 Palat - 52

TOR
1 Matthews - 94
2 Marner - 90
3 Tavares - 74
4 Nylander - 69
5 Rielly - 50

VAN
1 Pettersson - 76
2 Miller - 67
3 Boeser - 62
4 Hughes - 58
5 Horvat - 55

VEG
1 Stone - 73
2 Pacioretty - 70
3 Marchessault - 55
4 Karlsson - 50
5 Theodore - 49

WSH
1 Ovechkin - 84
2 Backstrom - 73
3 Carlson - 61
4 Kuznetsov - 60
5 Mantha - 54

WIN
1 Scheifele - 76
2 Ehlers - 67
3 Connor - 66
4 Wheeler - 62
5 Dubois - 50

You better be right about MacK because if not, he'll tap his stick and yell at his teammates for not hitting him with tape to tape passes.

 

[Sheppy]

Marchand: 93
Pastrnak: 88
Bergeron: 79
Hall: 69
Smith: 59

 

[Drew Doubty]

I think the Canucks will be a bit better, but I think you're overreacting. Pettersson's career high is 66, he has some injury concerns, and his career average pace is the same 76 points he's projected for here. Miller had never scored more than 58 points before coming to Vancouver and he paced for 71 last year. 67 isn’t unreasonable. Boeser has paced for 68 points in his career and is also an injury risk. 62 is probably low if he doesn't miss time, but not by much. Horvat paced for 57 points last year, so only 2 more than this, and his career high is only 6 more points at 61. Hughes is probably low but he paced for 60 points last year. Makar meanwhile was a point per game, so Makar paced for 22 points more just last year. A 20 point difference this year wouldn't be surprising. Makar is quite a bit better offensively at ES. One thing with the team is that if they do use two strong PP units, it will spread scoring out more among the top.

Something you are underrating is the Dickinson and Garland acquisitions. Dickinson can take a share of the matchup minutes that we're expected from Horvat. I think everyone has realized that Horvat is not the second coming of Patrice Bergeron. He's above average defensively, but not good enough to be stapled to other teams top lines every game. Dickinson is better than Horvat defensively (according to advanced stats), and the acquisition of Garland not only gives Horvat a legitimate scoring linemate, but also forces someone like Pearson to the third line. I think Horvat breaks out this year for 70+

 

[Regal]

Something you are underrating is the Dickinson and Garland acquisitions. Dickinson can take a share of the matchup minutes that we're expected from Horvat. I think everyone has realized that Horvat is not the second coming of Patrice Bergeron. He's above average defensively, but not good enough to be stapled to other teams top lines every game. Dickinson is better than Horvat defensively (according to advanced stats), and the acquisition of Garland not only gives Horvat a legitimate scoring linemate, but also forces someone like Pearson to the third line. I think Horvat breaks out this year for 70+

There's certainly the potential for that, though Sutter did that in 16-17 with Horvat getting offensive minutes with Boeser and his numbers weren't much different, though it was his most efficient 5v5 scoring season, and obviously he wouldn't face top checkers this season like that year, and he's probably better on the PP now. Still, it's one of those things where you can see the potential for the team to have 4 70-point forwards and even for Hughes to get there as well, but in reality it's very rare for it to happen these days. I think most people go overboard on projections for their teams. I don't agree with everything in the OP but I think they did a good job at tempering expectations more than most .

 

[Drew Doubty]

There's certainly the potential for that, though Sutter did that in 16-17 with Horvat getting offensive minutes with Boeser and his numbers weren't much different, though it was his most efficient 5v5 scoring season, and obviously he wouldn't face top checkers this season like that year, and he's probably better on the PP now. Still, it's one of those things where you can see the potential for the team to have 4 70-point forwards and even for Hughes to get there as well, but in reality it's very rare for it to happen these days. I think most people go overboard on projections for their teams. I don't agree with everything in the OP but I think they did a good job at tempering expectations more than most .

You're probably right, only so much pp1 time to go around. Though using 16-17 as a comparable is tough because he was 21 then right? His per game offensive numbers have gotten better every year except for last year.

I think part of the problem is trying to bake in injuries into projections. Putting Pettersson so low with the assumption he gets injured is weird, even if likely. If I were OP I think it would be better to predict a players 82 game pace than try and say who is getting injured and who is not.

 

[Confused Turnip]

WSH
1 Ovechkin - 84
2 Backstrom - 73
3 Carlson - 61
4 Kuznetsov - 60
5 Mantha - 54

I don't think this is way out there or anything, but it wouldn't be my list.

Backstrom was PPG last season and I expect him to be this season as well, his recent results in the 70s came because Kuznetsov was getting very significant time with Ovi which is unlikely to be the case this year. Ovechkin probably will edge him out just by a lot less than you have there, more like 84 vs 80 or something.

Oshie will certainly break 60. Wilson will be close to where you have Mantha as well.

Kuznetsov is a total wild card I literally have no idea what he'll put up next year. Neither 50 pts nor 100 pts would surprise me. I'd guess along these lines:

Ovechkin - 84
Backstrom - 80
Carlson - 65
Oshie - 65
Kuznetsov - ??? but probably in the top 5

 

[majormajor]

Hyman isn’t a clean up the garbage kind of player. It’s frustrating as hell that he isn’t, he has the skill set to do it.

He doesn't have that Ryan Smyth skillset. I don't see it. Great at fetching pucks but not at finishing.

 

[Dache]

When I engage in this exercise, I assume about 70 games played, not 82.

Why 70? Shortened season or injuries?

 

[Nickmo82]

Unless Panarin is getting kidnapped by Putin with 10 games left in your scenario, you've done him a misservice.

 

[majormajor]

Marchand: 93
Pastrnak: 88
Bergeron: 79
Hall: 69
Smith: 59

Who is setting up Hall and Smith for those gaudy numbers? They won't hit those with Coyle as their center. Leaving that aside it's still probably ridiculous to expect Smith to hit career highs at this age.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Our top scorer last year is being accused of betting against his own teams games right now...I don't really want to think about who's going to lead us now.