MS said:
Agreed. Not only that, his stock has dropped dramatically recently. Still, if given the choice of which goalie I'd have in my Sens system, I'd pick Fleury.
Top 25 Goalie Prospects
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Agreed. Not only that, his stock has dropped dramatically recently. Still, if given the choice of which goalie I'd have in my Sens system, I'd pick Fleury.
Stich said:
I'm sorry, but this is a really silly post.
Sixteen GMs found a player better than Schwarz in the past draft. Two GMs found a goalie they liked better than Schwarz in the past draft. Heck, can I get a body count on the major draft pubs? I know Redline liked Schwarz, but ISS had Montoya as No.1, right? Where was McKeens?
A lot more than 'one GM' felt Schwarz wasn't even the best goaltender in his draft year. Now, with no substantial playing time elapsed, posters on this board are basically ignoring all other evidence and pushing Schwarz to the top of the class because . . . well jeez, I have no idea why. Has he done something since draft day to get a better rating? Was there something Montoya didn't do that hurts his stock? I certainly haven't heard anything.
This, to me, is silly.
As for Ahonen . . . eh. Yeah Albany sucks. But his numbers have been inconsistent, and aren't great prospects supposed to make things happen? MA FLeury played well behind a hideous Pittsburgh defense for more than a month against NHL shooters... and he did it years before Ahonen even went pro. Blackburn had a shut-out in the NHL playing behind the totally incompetent Rangers defense and he did it years younger than Ahonen. Choido played pretty well in Pittsburgh this year, and I'm really still waiting for something to happen with Ahonen for me to think he's a big deal. Hey, he's a good prospect, don't knock that. But an elite goaltending prospect? He hasn't even won the back-up job to Brodeur yet, and he's had like what ... five years?
Kubera55 said:
To start with, Mckeen's had Schwarz above Montoya.
Now, let's get what's to what's really silly... your logic, or lack thereof. The ONLY thing that the draft tells us is that the 16 teams that picked before the Blues liked the player they took more than Schwarz. That's it. Nothing more.
As far as we know, if the Rangers were picking at the end of the draft instead of 5th, Montoya could have fallen past Schwarz.... because all him going 5th means is that the RANGERS liked him more than the other players onthe board. Nothing more.
As far as we know, if the Blues were picking 5th, they would have taken Schwarz instead of Montoya.
Captain Conservative
Registered User
Heres my top 15. Forgive me if I forgot someone
1 Lehtonen
2 Fleury
3 Toivonen
4 Emery
5 Ouellet
6 Miller
7 Bryzgalov
8 Lundquist
9 Leneveu
10 JDD
11 Ward
12 Harding
13 Ahonen
14 Schwarz
15 Montoya
1 Lehtonen
2 Fleury
3 Toivonen
4 Emery
5 Ouellet
6 Miller
7 Bryzgalov
8 Lundquist
9 Leneveu
10 JDD
11 Ward
12 Harding
13 Ahonen
14 Schwarz
15 Montoya
blackburn had some real nice games for a 18 and 19 year old...his shoulder injury has really ended up to be unfortunate. coming into that season, all the news was how hard he'd worked over the summer and how good was looking...that he might actually compete for the #1 spot (or at least a tandem situation). then the injury and he's been out ever since, terrible
the news on the surface is that they're still expecting him to fully recover, it's just taking longer than it was thought, and the muscle atrophy is what's hampering him a lot now. but who knows if it goes deeper.
IMO he would definatly be on a list like this if he had stayed healthy (or maybe not since he'd be in the NHL)
Bacchus
Registered User
Kubera55 said:
Simply because he was picked by the Rangers - one of the most-hated teams in the league. So of course he has to be overrated (he wasn't pre-drafted when nobody could have known he would be a Ranger later).
Stich said:
According to some insider-news (see the Rangers-board a couple of pages back) Montoya would have lasted then till #7 - where the Panthers would have picked him. I know (and they do, too!), they have Luongo between the pipes...
Franz said:
Yeah, but do you ever wonder why? I mean really, as villians go, the Rangers are a lot more 'Wile E. Coyote' than 'Hannibal Lecter.' I mean jeezus, could the Rangers have found more public and obvious ways to humiliate themselves and their fans over the last seven years? Talk about the reverse midas touch . . .
As for Stich's logic, I'm still lost here. I started by noting that several posters on this board had Schwarz rated well ahead of Montoya, just a few months (and no playing time) after their draft years. Montoya was drafted 11 spots ahead of Schwarz. He was listed ahead of Schwarz on several of the draft pubs. What was the logic of the numerous posters who ranked Schwarz ahead of Montoya? Had they all seen numerous games by each player and decided that the Rangers were just so wrong and the Blues were just so lucky?
How, I wondered, did the Blues get this miraculous hidden gem ten spots later than Montoya? And how did all those other teams fumble the ball and not notice this super-blue-chip just sitting there? I mean, surely if Schwarz was viewed as a top 10 goalie prospect, IN THE WORLD, by the GMing community, someone would have taken him in that top 16, right? Why didn't Los Angeles do it? Or Edmonton? They had clear needs in net. But both found prospects they liked better. Was this draft so deep that such an elite prospect could slide like that? Really? Certainly not by any account that I read pre-draft.
If we rated the top defensmen prospects in the NHL tomorrow, and someone tried to tell you that AJ Thelen is a substantially better prospect than Cam Barker, wouldn't you be a little dubious? Wouldn't you consider the disparity of their draft position a little telling? Wouldn't you think it interesting that Atlanta drafted the very skill-limited Valabik before Thelen? Wouldn't that be implied evidence of something? Or would you just say, "Well all you can tell by Chicago drafting Barker No.3 is that Chicago liked him. If they hadn't drafted him, heck, he could have been a second round pick and Thelen could have gone No.3." Is that logical to you? Realistic?
DoobieDoobieDo said:
I'd probably rank Ward a bit higher at the moment, but JDD's playoff performance last year, and his start to the AHL season were both miles ahead of Harding.
Goalies should not be based on what position they are drafted, rather how they can develop into top notch goalies.Kubera55 said:Yeah, but do you ever wonder why? I mean really, as villians go, the Rangers are a lot more 'Wile E. Coyote' than 'Hannibal Lecter.' I mean jeezus, could the Rangers have found more public and obvious ways to humiliate themselves and their fans over the last seven years? Talk about the reverse midas touch . . .
As for Stich's logic, I'm still lost here. I started by noting that several posters on this board had Schwarz rated well ahead of Montoya, just a few months (and no playing time) after their draft years. Montoya was drafted 11 spots ahead of Schwarz. He was listed ahead of Schwarz on several of the draft pubs. What was the logic of the numerous posters who ranked Schwarz ahead of Montoya? Had they all seen numerous games by each player and decided that the Rangers were just so wrong and the Blues were just so lucky?
How, I wondered, did the Blues get this miraculous hidden gem ten spots later than Montoya? And how did all those other teams fumble the ball and not notice this super-blue-chip just sitting there? I mean, surely if Schwarz was viewed as a top 10 goalie prospect, IN THE WORLD, by the GMing community, someone would have taken him in that top 16, right? Why didn't Los Angeles do it? Or Edmonton? They had clear needs in net. But both found prospects they liked better. Was this draft so deep that such an elite prospect could slide like that? Really? Certainly not by any account that I read pre-draft.
If we rated the top defensmen prospects in the NHL tomorrow, and someone tried to tell you that AJ Thelen is a substantially better prospect than Cam Barker, wouldn't you be a little dubious? Wouldn't you consider the disparity of their draft position a little telling? Wouldn't you think it interesting that Atlanta drafted the very skill-limited Valabik before Thelen? Wouldn't that be implied evidence of something? Or would you just say, "Well all you can tell by Chicago drafting Barker No.3 is that Chicago liked him. If they hadn't drafted him, heck, he could have been a second round pick and Thelen could have gone No.3." Is that logical to you? Realistic?
19bruins19 said:
But using that same notion that you just propsed "how they can develop into top notch goalies" it would still point to Montoya being the better one. He's playing on NORTH AMERICAN style ice (Schwarz still will have to conform to the NHL still rinks), Montoya also plays a butterfly style game, the most common of all NHL goalies while Schwarz plays a flop around game similar to Hasek, but a style that few goalies have ever been able to bring to the NHL game. If anything I'd say that Montoya has the better edge of becoming the NHL star, if statistics and history play a part.
oil slick said:
Harding was funky last year I don't know why but at least he got to the second round.
I don't think he is MILES ahead of Harding. Harding hasn't looked exactly sharp after the WJC last year but he should end up being a very solid goaltender. Houston hasn't meshed well for some odd reason yet either, but meh.
Strictly numbers? (the problem is JDD is in the QMJHL, while Harding is in the WHL)
JDD
01-02 51 GP, 170 GA, 1 SO, 3.51 GAA, 1698 SVS, .900 SV%
02-03 49 GP, 164 GA, 0 SO, 3.81 GAA, 1468 SVS, .888 SV%
03-04 50 GP, 129 GA, 1 SO, 2.87 GAA, 1408 SVS, .916 SV%
Harding
01-02 42 GP, 95 GA, 4 SO, 2.39 GAA, 913 SVS, .906 SV%
02-03 57 GP, 155 GA, 3 SO, 2.75 GAA, 1643 SVS, .914 SV%
03-04 28 GP, 67 GA, 2 SO, 2.41 GAA, 845 SVS, .927 SV%
03-04 27 GP, 65 GA, 5 SO, 2.42 GAA, 746 SVS, .920 SV%
03-04 55 GP, 132 GA, 7 SO, 2.415 GAA, 1591 SVS, .9235 SV%
Their numbers in the regular season aren't that much off but then again the QMJHL and the WHL is a different type of...system. They both made a ton of saves in their last two years...but Harding had the better GAA and SV% even though he seen roughly as many shots as JDD.
Playoffs? I can't tell you anymore than 2004 but
JDD:
03-04 18 GP, 50 GA, 1 SO, 3.14 GAA, 490 SVs on 540 shots, .907 SV%
Harding:
03-04: 11 GP, 36 GA, 0 SO, 3.27 GAA, 312 SVs on 348 shots, .897 SV%
I don't call that miles ahead...JDD played in more games, had 1 more shut out and seen more shots but only .10 SV% difference and .13 GAA more...
Now for the AHL
JDD:
3 GP, 6 GA, 0 SO, 2.02 GAA, 62 SVs, .912 SV%
Harding:
4 GP, 10 GA, 0 SO, 2.88 GAA, 79 SVs, .888 SV%
I'll give you that he is 'miles' ahead in the AHL but...I think he is in a funk and I can't explain why...
OK - maybe you're right, not miles ahead... but if I were to rank the two, I'd put JDD ahead. What can I say.
At this point I would too unless Harding snaps out of his funk but with his awards and records, I think Harding is a very solid goaltender that too often gets overlooked. He did beat out JDD and Ward to be a backup goaltender last year in the WJC, so that means something.
DoobieDoobieDo said:
I'm really not putting him down, I think he'll be good. I just like how Ward and JDD seem to be turning it up a notch. Anyways, I don't think it matters too much. Outside of Lehtonen, and maybe MAF, I think basically anyone could bust or boom.
Bear in mind I'm an Oilers homer as well.
19bruins19 said:
No player/prospect should ever be solely and eternally judged by their draft position. Eventually some undrafted players turn into HoF'ers and plenty of top ten picks turn out to be dogsh*t.
The draft is a frozen image of where the collective profesional 'group think' believes the available prospects shake out as viewed at the moment of the draft. As time goes on, it's relevance steadily dwindles.
But no time has gone on in this case. What Stich, and others, have said on this thread is that essentially 16 GMs got it wrong. Forget Montoya vs. Schwarz, if Schwarz was a top ten goalie prospect, in the world, why on earth did he make it into the late teens? Why did two GMs take a goalie other than him before he got called? And take a look at some of the guys selected before him. If Schwarz is a dead-lock-franchise-goalie, why were allegedly smart organizations taking goons (Valabik), checking forwards (Stafford), and head cases (Radulov) ahead of him? Are more than half the GMs and scouting staffs in hockey dumber than the infallible St.Louis Blues?
Frankly, I'm not even arguing that Montoya is a super-blue-chip. Though a case could be made. I'm merely arguing that Montoya is pretty solidly ahead of Schwarz until proven otherwise. If Montoya sh*ts the bed this year and Schwarz dominates, then obviously, that's something to take into account. But it hasn't happened (yet). At the moment, all we've got to go on in their current resumes, achievements, and draft position. And Montoya seems to win each and every category.
X-SHARKIE
Registered User
IMO the 1st round goaltenders were taken were they should've but I would have swaped Dubnyk and Schwarz.
Montoya > Schwarz > Dubnyk > Schneider
All four ooooooze potential equally IMO, but Montoya looks like the most NHL ready/Made and it sold me completely on the biggest stage he's played in at the WJC's.
What really impressed me is when Canada was up by two goals in the third and they came at him early and often, and he made all the saves he needed to and then that's when the Americans got the momentum going.
I like Schwarz raw tools and I hope St. Louis devolopes him well.
Montoya > Schwarz > Dubnyk > Schneider
All four ooooooze potential equally IMO, but Montoya looks like the most NHL ready/Made and it sold me completely on the biggest stage he's played in at the WJC's.
What really impressed me is when Canada was up by two goals in the third and they came at him early and often, and he made all the saves he needed to and then that's when the Americans got the momentum going.
I like Schwarz raw tools and I hope St. Louis devolopes him well.
BuppY
xGoodwillx
that's the thing...montoya looks to have "big game" potential and i think that's a big reason the rangers drafted him, along with the obvious skills
the rangers had one of the greatest big game goalies for years (mike richter) and montoya could possibly be the next to follow in mike's footsteps
kub...i wouldn't try too hard to apply logic around here cuz it doesn't seem to fly too well
i'll just add that according to reports, the rangers looked very seriously at schwarz as well and some people even thought they were targeting him with their first pick. obviously they didn't and took montoya instead...and schwarz wasn't anywhere near the top of their list in the end. whether they were wrong, we'll see...but it also seems to have been the consensus of many GM's in the league that they saw someone more valuable than him, until he got to the blues who couldn't pass up the value at the position
i don't think there's anything wrong with him or that he's a bad pick or a bad goalie, but i think he's been getting overrated a lot as well (and hell i think montoya is overrated to an extent as well)
Levitate said:
Can't let this statement slide, sorry Lev ;-)
I've seen this thought posted over and over since the Rangers drafted Montoya. The only back-up for it I've ever heard was that Michigan is such a dominant program that his numbers were inflated.... but seriously, how compelling is that? The guy wins games by the bushel. He's got every physical tool you could want; size, athleticism, reflexes, puck-handling. He's got a big game resume and he out-played the un-impeachable MA Fleury at last year's WJC.
Seriously, what's he supposed to do to be any better? How can we hold his team against him? And how overrated can he be when everyone on the boards calls him overratred everytime his name comes up?
Rowsdower
Registered User
Man.Utd said:
How has his stock dropped 'dramatically'? Is this in reference to his first 5 games of the season? People are putting way to much emphasis on these games....not trying to single you out, I see it everywhere lately, and it's starting to bug me. Also, nothing about the WJC last year please....the team lost that game, not an individual. I really fail to see how Fleury's stock has fell in any great signifigance....
He was jerked around like crazy last year, but even in his brief stint in the bigs, he has shown he has unbelievable skills...I think he just needs some time to get it together. I could say his stock may have dropped slightly since being drafted, but I would still be confident with the Pens drafting him 1st overall again today.
Also, I agree wholeheartedly with your second statement. In fact, I highly a doubt a single GM in the entire league would take any goaltending prospect not named Lehtonen over Fleury.
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