Top-100 Hockey Players of All-Time - Round 2, Vote 2

Discussion in 'The History of Hockey' started by quoipourquoi, Nov 5, 2018.

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  1. quoipourquoi Goaltender

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    Procedure
    • You will be presented with 10+ players based on their ranking in the Round 1 aggregate list (10 players plus anyone with 99% of the voting points of the 10th ranked player)
    • Players will be listed in alphabetical order to avoid creating bias
    • You will submit ten names in a ranked order, #1 through #10, without ties via PM to quoipourquoi
    • Results of this vote will be posted after each voting cycle, but the individual ballots themselves will remain secret until the completion of this project
    • The top-4 players will be added to The List in Vote 1, while the top-5 players will be added to The List in subsequent voting cycles (#1-4 in Vote 1, #5-9 in Vote 2, #10-14 in Vote 3, #15-19 in Vote 4, #20-24 in Vote 5, #25-29 in Vote 6, #30-34 in Vote 7, #35-39 in Vote 8, #40-44 in Vote 9, #45-49 in Vote 10, #50-54 in Vote 11, #55-59 in Vote 12, #60-64 in Vote 13, #65-69 in Vote 14, #70-74 in Vote 15, #75-79 in Vote 16, #80-84 in Vote 17, #85-89 in Vote 18, #90-94 in Vote 19, #95-99 in Vote 20)
    • A 100th player will be added to The List in Vote 21 from an expanded group of 15 candidates

    Eligible Voters
    • Ballots from voters who have submitted an approved Round 1 ranking of 120 players (which was used to shape the aggregate list) will have their votes tabulated in the History of Hockey ranking
    • Art of Sedinery, Batis, BenchBrawl, blogofmike, bobholly39, Canadiens1958, ChiTownPhilly, DannyGallivan, Dennis Bonvie, Dr John Carlson, ehhedler, Hockey Outsider, Iceman, ImporterExporter, Johnny Engine, JoseTheodore2002, kruezer, Kyle McMahon, Mike Farkas, MXD, pappyline, quoipourquoi, ResilientBeast, Sentinel, seventieslord, steve141, ted1971, TheDevilMadeMe, TheGeneral, The Macho Man, tony d, VanIslander

    Guidelines
    • Respect each other. No horseplay or sophistry!
    • Stay on topic and don't get caught up in talking about non-eligible players
    • Participate, but retain an open mind throughout the discussion
    • Do not speculate who cast any particular ballot. Do not make judgments about the mindset of whoever cast that particular ballot. All individual ballots will be revealed at the end of the project.

    House Rules
    • Any attempts to derail a discussion thread with disrespect to old-time hockey will be met with frontier justice
    • We encourage interpositional discussion (forward vs. defenseman vs. goaltender) as opposed to the safer and somewhat redundant intrapositional debates. Overemphasizing a tired single-position argument like, I don’t know, Harvey/Lidstrom, will only be briefly tolerated before one is asked to move on to a less tedious comparison.
    • Take a drink when someone mentions the number of hockey registrations in a given era
    • Finish your drink when someone mentions that goaltenders cannot be compared to skaters

    The actual voting period will open up on Friday, November 9th at midnight and continue through Sunday, November 11th at 8:59pm. Eastern time zone. I will release the results of the vote on Monday, November 12th.


    Vote 1 Candidates
    • Bobby Hull
    • Dominik Hasek
    • Doug Harvey
    • Eddie Shore
    • Howie Morenz
    • Jean Beliveau
    • Maurice Richard
    • Patrick Roy
    • Ray Bourque
    • Sidney Crosby
     
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  2. Hockey Outsider Registered User

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    VsX - seven and ten year scores

    Player 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 7YR 10YR Listed?
    Bobby Hull 124.4 114.3 111.5 106.7 101.3 100.0 100.0 89.3 85.5 85.3 108.3 101.8Yes
    Jean Beliveau 123.9 109.6 109.1 100.0 100.0 98.7 98.6 92.5 84.4 83.1 105.7 100.0Yes
    Sidney Crosby 119.5 105.3 100.0 100.0 98.2 97.7 96.2 95.5 93.6 87.3 102.4 99.3Yes
    Maurice Richard 112.7 109.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 94.2 93.6 88.3 80.5 102.4 97.9Yes
    Howie Morenz 145.7 118.6 100.0 98.0 93.1 80.6 79.5 72.3 52.5 48.8 102.2 88.9Yes
    Raymond Bourque 88.0 81.7 79.3 75.8 69.8 68.3 65.1 63.7 61.8 61.5 75.5 71.5Yes
    Eddie Shore 79.5 72.1 70.2 65.5 56.3 50.0 48.6 47.5 44.0 40.9 63.2 57.5Yes
    Doug Harvey 66.2 64.9 62.0 60.7 57.7 55.7 48.1 43.9 43.3 42.0 59.3 54.5Yes
    Most of you reading this are familiar with VsX, which is a method to compare offensive output from different eras. The standard disclaimers apply - this measures offense only (not defense); it's regular season only (not playoffs); and it only focuses on actual production (injured seasons are included, but there are no adjustments for games missed - sorry Crosby).

    Note that the data only goes back to the 1926-27 season (the first year that North American professional hockey was consolidated into one league). Thus, Morenz gets zero credit for his first three seasons. What really hurts him is losing the 1924-25 season (where he would have gotten a score of 93 - before making any adjustments to reflect the fact that the WCHL had some top-end talent).

    I'd also like to remind people that VsX (like any statistical method) isn't perfect. I think it would be a waste of time to argue that Crosby is better than Richard because of a 0.2% difference. Over a ten year span, the four forwards are all virtually even (Morenz a half-step behind) - so hopefully nobody uses this table to try to argue that one is far ahead of the others.

    Hart trophy voting

    Player1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th+TotalListed?
    Jean Beliveau24129Yes
    Bobby Hull22419Yes
    Eddie Shore41218Yes
    Sidney Crosby231118Yes
    Dominik Hasek21216Yes
    Maurice Richard1236Yes
    Ray Bourque2215Yes
    Doug Harvey1135Yes
    Patrick Roy11114Yes
    You'll remember from the previous round that QPQ had some criticisms of me presenting the Hart trophy data this way. (Essentially, his concern was that if I use a 5% cut-off, I'm eliminating some strong seasons from players who fall below that threshold - particularly during years when there are multiple superstar seasons at once, such as 1989). His point is absolutely valid, but I've also received several requests to continue posting this data, so I'll continue doing so unless there's a consensus about a better/more meaningful way to present it.

    Usually when I present Hart data I go back to 1946-47, but in this case I've manually added the result for Shore and Richard (he had one 2nd place finish during the war years).
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2018
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  3. BenchBrawl joueur de hockey

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    Exactly the four players I thought were going to be available.
     
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  4. The Macho King World Champion*

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    So the adds are Dom, Shore, Morenz, and Crosby? I'm okay with that. Initial impressions - I want to hear the argument for #5. I could see any of four players in that spot.

    My gut reaction (and my round 1 vote) was for Harvey in that spot, but I could see Bobby, Beliveau, or a goalie taking that spot.
     
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  5. ResilientBeast ATD Draft Czar

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    Now we get into some interesting comparisions

    Morenz/Beliveau/Crosby

    Who is the best Hab of all time?

    Roy/Harvey/Beliveau/Richard/Morenz
     
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  6. Nick Hansen Registered User

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    Beliveau
    Roy
    Hull
    Harvey

    My guess. This one's much tougher than the 1-4 vote IMO. I have a feeling Richard could end up lower than usual, that's the feeling I've gotten from the discussions around him on here lately...
     
  7. Captain Bowie Registered User

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    Very interesting, should be a good round of discussion.

    Harvey vs. Shore should be a great debate, depending on others to bring the materials for that one.

    Of course Roy vs. Hasek, many keys will be stroked on that one.

    I feel like Beliveau, Hull, Roy, Hasek and Harvey all have a solid case for #5, so should be interesting to see how those guys shake out.

    I had them in the following order on my list:

    Jean Beliveau
    Bobby Hull
    Doug Harvey
    Ray Bourque
    Patrick Roy
    Maurice Richard
    Dominik Hasek
    Eddie Shore
    Sidney Crosby
    Howie Morenz


    Morenz outside the top 15, and one guy from my top 10 not included, though I'm kind of OK with it.
     
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  8. kruezer Registered User

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    To your point about Morenz. Is it fair to say that if we include pre-26-27 that Morenz's 88.9 10YR would be more closely aligned with Richard and Crosby? Are the three basically the same in terms of VsX?
     
  9. Captain Bowie Registered User

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    That's quite impressive that Crosby comes out looking as good as he does.
     
  10. Dr John Carlson Light is all over us

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    Some initial thoughts...

    Shore seems like the odd one out here. The preliminary threads really made me rethink him... his main selling points are his 4 Harts being more than any other defenseman, but that stat doesn't seem nearly as impressive after reading about voting standards at the time, team success, contemporary opinion, etc.

    Richard will also need convincing for me, I'm always skeptical of players whose legend seems to outweigh their accomplishments.

    I had Beliveau/Hull/Harvey/Crosby as the next four in that order on my list. Maybe Morenz has the best chance of moving into that top 4? There was a lot of revisionist thinking regarding him in the preliminary threads but it will be interesting to dive deeper into that now that more discussion can be had on him. He could move way up or way down for me.
     
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  11. Hockey Outsider Registered User

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    Just added some wording to my post - they're all close enough that I don't think it would be meaningful/productive for anyone to centre their arguments around VsX.
     
  12. kruezer Registered User

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    Also, just some more Data. Here are the 3 defensemen and how many times they were top 10 in D scoring and how many times they won the D scoring race in the NHL.

    PlayerTop 10Win
    Bourque192
    Shore135
    Harvey144
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2018
  13. Vegito Registered User

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    Which guy is missing for you?
     
  14. Captain Bowie Registered User

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    Since it seemed to be a helpful metric, at least for comparing dominance levels offensively, I am going to breakdown how players fared compared to the rest of the league during their prime (Like we did with Howe/Lemieux) to see how dominant they were offensively beyond simply Art Ross counting.
     
  15. ResilientBeast ATD Draft Czar

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    I had Hasek at 5?

    Was that crazy?

    I acknowledge that this conflicts with how I voted last round and I find when it comes to actually voting my standards are shifting
     
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  16. Captain Bowie Registered User

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    A teammate of your boy Mario's.
     
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  17. The Macho King World Champion*

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    Way too high for Ron Francis.
     
  18. quoipourquoi Goaltender

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    I’ll probably give Beliveau vs. Richard vs. Roy a go later today. I think of the eligible players, they may have the most similar balance of regular season performance, playoff performance, health, and year-to-year consistency.

    Sidney Crosby is my wildcard.
     
  19. ted2019 Know your History

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    Beliveau will always be #1 for me.
     
  20. ChiTownPhilly Not Too Soft

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    Relieved that Morenz is up this round. I was worried we'd get too-cool-for-school on that one. Be interesting to go to the archives to brush up on my Eddie Shore, as well.

    First instinct- we could do worse than matriculating the remainders from Vote 1 down the field, and moving on. However, I think there's a place in the sun for Morenz.

    Drive-by: Morenz has a retro-Smythe for '24... presented for the consideration of those who feel that his playoff résumé is dodgy.
     
  21. quoipourquoi Goaltender

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    Certainly not crazy. Fantastically high level of play - however one coupled with health and dependability issues. I’m not terribly high on him myself, but if one prioritizes how a player performs at his very best, he and Crosby would be among the standouts this round.
     
  22. ted2019 Know your History

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    Without doing any new research, my list is.
    Beliveau
    Hull
    Crosby/Harvey/Morenz
    Hasek
    Roy
    Richard
    Bourque
    Shore a distance last.
     
  23. Vegito Registered User

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    Beliveau vs Crosby is interesting imo. As of now they have very similar hart and Ross finishes. Both have great playoff performances. Beliveau also has the most points in finals history
     
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  24. ted2019 Know your History

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    I'm going to start looking at Crosby/Morenz/Harvey
    It will be interesting since it crosses the early days to present time.
     
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  25. dr robbie Let's Go Pens!

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    I think the goalie placement is going to be tough in general. Roy, Hasek, and even Plante seem to be so close to each other that they almost negate themselves (I might be high on Roy, but low on Hasek while you might be the opposite. Combined, they both drop in the ranking). Personally, I think a goalie (Roy IMO) should enter the running around this point, but always have a hard time moving others down for him.
     

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