Top-100 Hockey Players of All-Time - Round 2, Vote 17

[overpass]

I posted some numbers based on plus-minus data for Gadsby, as well as many others, in this thread about 1960-1967 plus-minus data.

NHL Plus-Minus Data 1960-1967

Quick summary on Gadsby from 1960-1967 — even past his peak, he was one of the most heavily used defencemen at even strength and while short handed. He was on the ice for 48% of his team’s EV goals and 58% of their PPGA. He spent some time on the power play (42%) but it was not a major part of his game in the 60s, partly because Detroit would run two forwards on the points. Defencemen of the last 10 years with a similar ice time profile to late career Gadsby (high EV and SH, some PP) would be Zdeno Chara, Jay Bouwmeester, Ryan McDonagh, Francois Beauchemin. Gadsby would have played more minutes than any of them or any current defenceman as teams only used 4-5 defencemen in his era instead of 6.

Gadsby’s GF/GA ratio at even strength (R-ON) was worse than when he was off (R-OFF). 0.88 compared to 1.02. That’s not a small difference over 453 games. In 323 games in Detroit, his R-ON was 0.87. Doug Barkley had an R-ON of 1.23 in a similar time frame and a much higher plus-minus both at home and on the road. How much of that difference can matchups explain, especially both the home and road difference? Maybe part of it, but Gadsby was on the ice almost half the game anyway, so he must have had some easier minutes as well as hard minutes against top lines. Maybe Barkley got to play with Howe and Delvecchio more than Gadsby did, but I don’t know how much that could be a factor with 3 forward lines and 4 defencemen.

I said “easier” minutes, but there probably weren’t many easy minutes at all in the late Original Six NHL, especially compared to the postexpansion 70s and 80s. Plus-minus and R-ON/R-OFF splits had a much narrower range both within teams and across teams than they did after expansion, suggesting that the league was more competitive and the impact an individual player could have via plus-minus was smaller. Keep this in mind when comparing Bill Gadsby’s plus-minus to, say, Borje Salming. Also keep in mind that we don’t have plus-minus for Gadsby’s peak. We know Salming was +45 in 1976-77, but we don’t know Gadsby’s rating for 1957-58.

 

[blogofmike]

When Hull was racking up 50 goal seasons thanks to elite passer Oates, Hull was a cherry picker and lazy non-backchecker.

Then in Dallas he begrudgedly followed Hitchcock's direction, though with multiple public complaints about style of play, and specialized roles and needs of different players to play differently.

And so he was ready: Bowman, of course, suffers no fools gladly.

I think everyone assumes that because Brett Hull had no problem breaking 50 goals in the two seasons after Oates left, it wasn't due to Oates.

As for the 70 goal seasons, this is from @matnor, but it's a quote of a quote, so I am manually copying and pasting and apologize in advance if it appears off:

1989-90 season

In their first season together Hull scored 72 goals while Oates had 79 assists. Both played the full season, 80 games. Out of Hull's 72 goals, 45 was scored at even strength. However, Oates did only assist on 14 of them. More surprising is that that is the same amount of assists as the left-winger on Hull's line, Sergio Momesso, had. Momesso wasn't really a first-line caliber player so it is surprising that he had as many assists as Oates. One reason for this is that Oates wasn't Hull's center the entire season. Peter Zezel seems to have centered Hull for part of the season, he had 8 assists on Hull's goals at even strength. No other player had more than 5 ES assists.

Turning to the powerplay. Out of Hull's 27 PP goals, Oates assisted on 9 of them. That is actually fewer than Zezel's 13 assists. The only other player with more than 5 PP assists was Jeff Brown with 7.

So, in total, Oates assisted on 23 of Hull's goals, Zezel on 21 whereas Momesso assisted on 19. To me, that hardly suggests that Oates was crucial for Hull's success that season.

1990-91 season

Turning to Hull's Hart-winning season. He scored an astounding 86 goals in 78 games while Oates had a fantastic 90 assists in only 60 games. Out of Hull's 86 goals, 57 was scored at even strength. Unfortunately, HSP only includes 56 of those goals so that is what I can analyze. Of those 56 goals Oates assisted on 21 of them. Since Oates was out for a large part of the season this is a fairly high number. Of the other players Brind'amour had 12 assists and Gino Cavallini 9.

Hull scored 29 goals on the powerplay and here is where the chemistry between Hull and Oates really can be seen. Oates assisted on 20 of those 29 goals. Excluding the games Oates was injured that means he assisted on 80% (20/25) of Hull's PP goals. Other notable players with a high number of assists were the two defensemen, Scott Stevens (10) and Jeff Brown (8).

Another way of analyzing this season is to look at the 19 games which Oates missed. During these games Hull scored 18 goals and added 9 assists. This is lower than his pace with Oates (59 games, 68 goals and 36 assists) but still very good. Overall, I would say this is the season where the chemistry between these two players were most important.

1991-92 season

For this season there are no game-by-game data available from the HSP. However, since Oates was traded midway through the season we can compare their play before and after the trade. Overall, Hull scored 70 goals in 73 games this season, while Oates had 79 assists in 80 games. Breaking it down before and after the trade we get:


Overall, the difference is not that big. Hull scored points at the same rate after the trade as before but with slightly less goals and slightly more assists. Oates on the other hand increased his goal scoring but decreased his assists production after the trade.

Overall Conclusion

While Hull and Oates certainly benefited from playing with each other I think Oates' impact on Hull's goal scoring has been a little overstated thanks to the drop in Hull's goal scoring after Oates left. Without Oates I think it's still likely Hull scores 60+ goals all three seasons and likely over 70 in at least one or two of them.

Hull was one of the great goal scorers and Oates one of the great playmakers, but neither was really dependent on the other. In 1990, Hull had over 50 goals that Oates didn't assist on. In 1991, their chemistry improves - and Hull could still lead the league in ES goals if none of his Adam Oates-assisted goals count. In 1992, Hull's goal scoring dropped off after the Oates trade, but his assists count improves. He was almost identically productive, but his points were less goal-heavy, with the Golden Brett scoring 1.50 PPG before the trade and 1.47 PPG after with more assists. (For Oates' part, he was almost as productive - dropping from 1.28 to 1.15 PPG, but conversely Oates was less assists-heavy. He doubled his goals scoring rate by scoring 10 goals in 26 games with Boston as opposed to 10 goals in 54 games with St. Louis.)

 

[tarheelhockey]

Brett Hull and Nels Stewart both have the lazy/one-dimensional tag with them. I think Hull has fallen about as far as reasonable though. He's been the best goal scorer left on the board for quite a while. Ken Hitchcock and Scott Bowman both wanted him around when they were winning Cups. Stewart has been described as lazy/floater to the extreme...but two Hart Trophies suggest this has to have been exaggerated to some extent.

This is a contemporary view of Stewart's style, as compared to King Clancy, from 1928:



Clancy - Lots of noise, lots of lift-you-from-your-seat moments, kind of a wild-eyed crazy man's approach to the game. Energy up and down the ice.

Stewart - Basically you don't even notice he's there until you realize he's behind your defenseman with the puck.

 

[Sentinel]

I like that Gadsby, Leetch, and Salming are available at the same time - they seem similar in quality to me. None totally wows me now, but they won't be bottom of the list for sure.

I definitely prefer Lach to Fedorov. Not entirely sure where to put Stewart there, but I lean towards having him fairly high. Too bad Ullman and Cowley aren't here, but not worth complaining about.

As one-dimensional goal-scorers go, Stewart had many more great years than Hull, but he doesn't have the clutch thing that Hull does.

Broda will be fairly high for me. Among short prime players, Durnan vs Leetch is worth looking at.

Fedorov might still be last, but it isn't guaranteed.

Still bitter about 1995, when he was the only threat to your team? Gawd...

 

[ted2019]

With all due respect I disagree and I am likely one of the few who saw all 3 play. I would be interested in C1958's opinion.

Why is his opinion so special? Is it because he always favors the older generation no matter what?

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Still bitter about 1995, when he was the only threat to your team? Gawd...

Actually, 1995 finals were my favorite moment in Red Wings history. Thank you for the warm memories

But I'm not sure what it has to do with Fedorov only having 4 top 20 finishes in the NHL.

 

[ted2019]

In order Serge Savard, Chris Pronger,Bill Gadsby are Top 100. Scott Stevens is not. Pronger had a higher ceiling than Gadsby.

Why do you think that Stevens isn't a top 100 player? Stevens made the Devils engine go, not Marty Brodeur.

 

[pappyline]

Why is his opinion so special? Is it because he always favors the older generation no matter what?

No. Its because he has seen a lot more hockey than people like you.

 

[ted2019]

Actually, 1995 finals were my favorite moment in Red Wings history. Thank you for the warm memories

But I'm not sure what it has to do with Fedorov only having 4 top 20 finishes in the NHL.

He has to blame something on why Fedorov isn't a top 40 player on here.

 

[ted2019]

Hmm...surprised to see the separation of Stevens and Pronger in such a dramatic way. Interesting.

I see Pronger & Stevens as top 70 players, easily. Both were cut from the same cloth and both could slow down a game when they needed to.

 

[ted2019]

No. Its because he has seen a lot more hockey than people like you.

People like me? How old do you think I am? Also, just because he could be older then myself, doesn't mean his opinion is correct, nor does it mean that I haven't watched more hockey then him. You are speculating.

 

[pappyline]

People like me? How old do you think I am?

I have no idea. Nor do I care.

 

[ted2019]

I have no idea. Nor do I care.

I don't care about you either, so there. Once again, just because he might be or not be older then me, doesn't mean that he has watched more hockey then myself. How do you know that I don't work in hockey?

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Right now I have Durnan & Broda at the top of my list.

Mikhailov is in my top 5.

Brian Leetch, to me, is one of the Top 5 offensive defensemen I have see. But Salming was better overall.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Why is his opinion so special? Is it because he always favors the older generation no matter what?

At least I know the difference between Clint Benedict and Charlie Gardiner, meaning I have watched NHL / International hockey for over 60 seasons and researched it for over 40.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Why do you think that Stevens isn't a top 100 player? Stevens made the Devils engine go, not Marty Brodeur.

Devils engine was going nowhere with Stevens, similar to the Capitals and Blues, until coach Jacques Lemaire and Brodeur arrived.

 

[wetcoast]

I think everyone assumes that because Brett Hull had no problem breaking 50 goals in the two seasons after Oates left, it wasn't due to Oates.

As for the 70 goal seasons, this is from @matnor, but it's a quote of a quote, so I am manually copying and pasting and apologize in advance if it appears off:



Hull was one of the great goal scorers and Oates one of the great playmakers, but neither was really dependent on the other. In 1990, Hull had over 50 goals that Oates didn't assist on. In 1991, their chemistry improves - and Hull could still lead the league in ES goals if none of his Adam Oates-assisted goals count. In 1992, Hull's goal scoring dropped off after the Oates trade, but his assists count improves. He was almost identically productive, but his points were less goal-heavy, with the Golden Brett scoring 1.50 PPG before the trade and 1.47 PPG after with more assists. (For Oates' part, he was almost as productive - dropping from 1.28 to 1.15 PPG, but conversely Oates was less assists-heavy. He doubled his goals scoring rate by scoring 10 goals in 26 games with Boston as opposed to 10 goals in 54 games with St. Louis.)

Why Hull is even available this round is beyond me, he should have voted in already easily.

He seems to be a case of too many here seeing him play and not liking his 2 way game based on plus minus for the most part.


That 3 year goal scoring peak, his excellent scoring longevity, international and playoff resume is very strong for a player this late in the project.

 

[wetcoast]

Devils engine was going nowhere with Stevens, similar to the Capitals and Blues, until coach Jacques Lemaire and Brodeur arrived.

This is so simplistic and far from the only reasons the Devils progressed.

Stevens had an excellent playoff track record in Washington starting at the age of 19 and he also had a very good playoff in his one year with St. Louis (he led the team in plus/minus in the playoffs despite paling heavy minutes.

Scott Stevens has SIXTEEN top 10 Norris finishes, why he isn't up and Nels Stewart is?

I think Stevens could be the best defesnman this round actually (except he isn't up yet)

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Why Hull is even available this round is beyond me, he should have voted in already easily.

He seems to be a case of too many here seeing him play and not liking his 2 way game based on plus minus for the most part.


That 3 year goal scoring peak, his excellent scoring longevity, international and playoff resume is very strong for a player this late in the project.

Hull was a first team all-star all 3 of those peak years (with Oates).

Those were also Hull's only 3 seasons (out of 19) as an all-star.

 

[wetcoast]

Leaving this alone for the rest of today, but this is my first impressions ballot. Subject to change if anyone wants to convince me otherwise.

Brett Hull

Bill Durnan

Turk Broda

Sergei Fedorov

Boris Mikhailov

Elmer Lach

Brian Leetch

Nels Stewart

Borje Salming

Bill Gadsby

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Agree with most of this order, although I think Stewart might be at the bottom for me and Fedorov might be 1, Hull 2 and I honestly have't really looked at the goalies.

 

[wetcoast]

Hull was a first team all-star all 3 of those peak years (with Oates).

Those were also Hull's only 3 seasons (out of 19) as an all-star.

I don't put a lot of stock in post season all stars for a couple of reasons.

1) It's redundant as we can all easily determine from year to year the top 2 and top5ish at each position, especially forwards.

2) Not all positions are equal in ease to make the top 2.

RW was a murder's row in the 90's with Jagr, Bure, Hull, Selanne, Mogilny (last 2 in the same year they score 76 goals) make it almost impossible to compare on all star selections.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

This is so simplistic and far from the only reasons the Devils progressed.

Stevens had an excellent playoff track record in Washington starting at the age of 19 and he also had a very good playoff in his one year with St. Louis (he led the team in plus/minus in the playoffs despite paling heavy minutes.

Scott Stevens has SIXTEEN top 10 Norris finishes, why he isn't up and Nels Stewart is?

I think Stevens could be the best defesnman this round actually (except he isn't up yet)

You need to pay closer attention.

You don't value all-star selections, but you do value top 10 Norris finishes? That's silly.

 

[wetcoast]

You need to pay closer attention.

Man I totally forgot that he was voted 63, makes more sense now, my bad

 

[Canadiens1958]

Meanwhile a non-participant is wondering why Scott Stevens -already named is not up for consideration.

Just another reason to ban non-participants.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

...Bower was stuck in the minors, but maybe if he was, you know, better, somone would've traded for him?

Lirl