Top 10 NHL Goalies so far based on analytics

[Islesfan22]

Analytics are for geeks.

 

[Not My Tempo]

You put shit in, you get shit out.

Bad data is worse than no data. I'd be more inclined to rely on save percentage than GSAX.

No data set is going to be 100% accurate. Assuming a normal distribution of errors is pretty common place in statistics. We're literally talking about probably around a million+ shots worth of data, the error should even out. Even then If you think think the errors are biased/skewed a certain way, if we look at EvolvingHockey's xG model, it specifically uses gradient boosting which is pretty good at determining how wrong or biased a model is and adjusting it, each iteration adjusting for errors in the last.

In your shooting example, yes the analytics models don't know preshot movement, but preshot movement is somewhat taken into account as the aggregate results are with it. Is preshot understated? For sure. But it's not ignored.

 

[The Macho King]

No data set is going to be 100% accurate. Assuming a normal distribution of errors is pretty common place in statistics. We're literally talking about probably around a million+ shots worth of data, the error should even out. Even then If you think think the errors are biased/skewed a certain way, if we look at EvolvingHockey's xG model, it specifically uses gradient boosting which is pretty good at determining how wrong or biased a model is and adjusting it, each iteration adjusting for errors in the last.

In your shooting example, yes the analytics models don't know preshot movement, but preshot movement is somewhat taken into account as the aggregate results are with it. Is preshot understated? For sure. But it's not ignored.

I don't track this logic. We're not talking about minor statistical errors here - it appears to be (admittedly from less than complete analysis) significantly and consistently off in a lot of ways. The only way to tell *how* off would be to compare it to a good data set, but I would imagine all of those are proprietary.

And even then, I still don't trust the data as a basis for goalies for the other reasons I outlined.

 

[Three On Zero]

TIL: Hellebuyck not a top 10 goalie

Makes perfect sense.

This didn’t age well tonight

 

[rubikscube]

This didn’t age well tonight

Huh?

There were 3 tipped goals. I legitimately don't even know how you could come up with that

 

[Three On Zero]

Huh?

There were 3 tipped goals. I legitimately don't even know how you could come up with that

A goals a goal

 

[rubikscube]

A goals a goal

Lol. Okay then.

 

[Three On Zero]

Lol. Okay then.

Would screen goals not count either than? That’s some terrible logic

 

[ScaryCarey31]

People try break goalies down way too much, all that matters is they make the saves they're supposed to. If they meet that requirement and are amongst the leaders in SVP from the slot, then you can say they're good enough to be at the top

 

[thrillhous]

A goals a goal

Oh my

 

[CupInSIX]

Funny, up until 4 games ago this was probably the lightest workload MAF has had in the past 4 years. Shots down to 25 per game, rebounds cleared more often than not & the PK doing an excellent job in front of him.

Mind you, his style has changed to be a lot more calm so he's not giving up as many rebounds it seems.