Speculation: Top 10 Leafs scoring leaders for 2019-2020 - #7

[MyBudJT]

it's just not a very rational approach, Petan has never managed to produce in the NHL, removing a guy in Johnsson who's last year was very like Marchessault's career average (including the very positive possession and possession relatives) in hopes that a former CHL scoring champion catches lightning in a bottle is just not a well advised move, it will blow up in your face 9 times out of 10 - Petan hasn't really done anything well in the NHL, Johnsson has scored but he's also an excellent possession player.

ironically, if you give Johnsson the extra 3.5mins of 5v5 time and minute of PP time per game that Marchessault gets, that's probably a very high odds bet of a Marchessault-like result.

and for some context, Johnsson might have had top 6 linemates for much of the year, but he was 286th among NHL forwards in ice time per game and still produced on a just under 50pt pace. So if you're doing the math on that, he got just under top 9 minutes and produced on a just under 1st line clip. This is a guy you should be excited about, from one Leaf fan to another.

What is ‘my approach’ exactly? All I’ve stated is that Petan could break out if given the opportunity... I’m not predicting he’ll out produce Johnsson or anything... it just wouldn’t surprise me that IF given an opportunity, that he COULD outproduce Johnsson..

Was there a rational approach to suggest Marchessault would break out, or Martin st Louis for that matter?

I like Petan’s skill set. Petan hasn’t produced at the NHL leave, but hasn’t exactly been put in a position to succeed. People suggest we should discredit player’s ice time on the 4th line for all kinds of players, why shouldn’t this count for Petan?

 

[Randy Randerson]

What is ‘my approach’ exactly? All I’ve stated is that Petan could break out if given the opportunity... I’m not predicting he’ll out produce Johnsson or anything... it just wouldn’t surprise me that IF given an opportunity, that he COULD outproduce Johnsson..

Was there a rational approach to suggest Marchessault would break out, or Martin st Louis for that matter?

I like Petan’s skill set. Petan hasn’t produced at the NHL leave, but hasn’t exactly been put in a position to succeed. People suggest we should discredit player’s ice time on the 4th line for all kinds of players, why shouldn’t this count for Petan?

Your approach in this context was to bump Johnsson down the lineup despite good results and Petan up the lineup despite not good results. Petan COULD outproduce Johnsson, but it's extremely unlikely given their respective bodies of work.

if you want a Jonathan Marchessault, it looks like Johnsson is it. Marchessault had been a fairly productive junior player and a quite productive AHL player (like Johnsson), St Louis had been an exceptionally productive college player at a time where being 6'0" was a prerequisite to being an NHL'er. We're also lucky that we aren't guessing with Johnsson, he already has broken out.

Petan has more than 100 games of NHL work, his underlying production rates are pedestrian even for 4th liners and he's not a good possession player (meaning he doesn't do anything to help you win when he doesn't have the puck). Giving him Johnsson's time would be like opting to put Dane Fox in your top 6 rather than Jonathan Marchessault heading into the 2017/18 season - you already have some tremendously positive indicators on one guy, so why do you want to replace him with another where you have no positive indicators?

 

[MyBudJT]

Your approach in this context was to bump Johnsson down the lineup despite good results and Petan up the lineup despite not good results. Petan COULD outproduce Johnsson, but it's extremely unlikely given their respective bodies of work.

if you want a Jonathan Marchessault, it looks like Johnsson is it. Marchessault had been a fairly productive junior player and a quite productive AHL player (like Johnsson), St Louis had been an exceptionally productive college player at a time where being 6'0" was a prerequisite to being an NHL'er. We're also lucky that we aren't guessing with Johnsson, he already has broken out.

Petan has more than 100 games of NHL work, his underlying production rates are pedestrian even for 4th liners and he's not a good possession player (meaning he doesn't do anything to help you win when he doesn't have the puck). Giving him Johnsson's time would be like opting to put Dane Fox in your top 6 rather than Jonathan Marchessault heading into the 2017/18 season - you already have some tremendously positive indicators on one guy, so why do you want to replace him with another where you have no positive indicators?

I didn’t try and bump him down at all other than stating that he is overrated. That’s not a knock on Johnsson, he is still a good player, just not as good as you may think

I disagree regarding Petan. He is potential there, just needs an opportunity

 

[Randy Randerson]

I didn’t try and bump him down at all other than stating that he is overrated. That’s not a knock on Johnsson, he is still a good player, just not as good as you may think

I disagree regarding Petan. He is potential there, just needs an opportunity

You said that Petan should get a chance in the top 6, then referenced Johnsson playing with Matthews and Petan getting a chance to do that

I will stick with what the numbers say here, which is that Johnsson is much better than you think rather than worse than what I think.

Petan is in his mid 20's on a league minimum 1 year deal, you're excited about the wrong thing. I hope you're right, but its very, very unlikely

 

[MyBudJT]

You said that Petan should get a chance in the top 6, then referenced Johnsson playing with Matthews and Petan getting a chance to do that

I will stick with what the numbers say here, which is that Johnsson is much better than you think rather than worse than what I think.

Petan is in his mid 20's on a league minimum 1 year deal, you're excited about the wrong thing. I hope you're right, but its very, very unlikely

Yeah, I do think Petan should have a look with Tavares or Matthews. Especially with Hyman our. If it doesn’t work after 5-10 games, you put him lower in the lineup... but I really want to see Petan being given the opportunity.

I also like the idea of a Johnsson-Kerfoot-Kapanen third line. The skill and speed would be deadly, and all are not a liability defensively! This is what I’m ‘betting’ on, but i think a Kerfoot and Kapanen would get more points.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Yeah, I do think Petan should have a look with Tavares or Matthews. Especially with Hyman our. If it doesn’t work after 5-10 games, you put him lower in the lineup... but I really want to see Petan being given the opportunity.

I also like the idea of a Johnsson-Kerfoot-Kapanen third line. The skill and speed would be deadly, and all are not a liability defensively! This is what I’m ‘betting’ on, but i think a Kerfoot and Kapanen would get more points.

sounds like it's Johnsson & Mikheyev that are likely to be the top two starting LW's until Hyman is back. Petan really doesn't have the tools for the role, the way the lines are constructed the LW needs to be the chase guy and he's not fast enough

I think you want your best players to have good tools around them, so I would leave Johnsson playing with one of the big lines because he's been extremely good in that role

 

[MyBudJT]

sounds like it's Johnsson & Mikheyev that are likely to be the top two starting LW's until Hyman is back. Petan really doesn't have the tools for the role, the way the lines are constructed the LW needs to be the chase guy and he's not fast enough

I think you want your best players to have good tools around them, so I would leave Johnsson playing with one of the big lines because he's been extremely good in that role

Source indicating Johnsson and Mikheyev are penciled into top 6?

Petan’s tools are best suited for a top six role... I think he’d compliment Tavares’ and Matthews’ line well.

Johnsson isn’t one of our best players though... and I think you’d want a good 3rd line and not ‘stack’ the top two.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Source indicating Johnsson and Mikheyev are penciled into top 6?

Petan’s tools are best suited for a top six role... I think he’d compliment Tavares’ and Matthews’ line well.

Johnsson isn’t one of our best players though... and I think you’d want a good 3rd line and not ‘stack’ the top two.

James Mirtle

Petan's tools are best suited for a top 6 role, but in a lesser league

Johnsson is one of the "good tools", not one of the "best players" - by that I meant Matthews.

The Leafs are very deep, so we're lucky to not have to choose between having a good top 6 and 3rd line, we'll have both. If Mikheyev is any good it could be a very good lineup top to bottom. I also won't be surprised if Petan is a 13th forward when Hyman is back

 

[MyBudJT]

James Mirtle

Petan's tools are best suited for a top 6 role, but in a lesser league

Johnsson is one of the "good tools", not one of the "best players" - by that I meant Matthews.

The Leafs are very deep, so we're lucky to not have to choose between having a good top 6 and 3rd line, we'll have both. If Mikheyev is any good it could be a very good lineup top to bottom. I also won't be surprised if Petan is a 13th forward when Hyman is back

Lol, as if Mirtle has any say in coaching decisions...

 

[Randy Randerson]

Lol, as if Murrow has any say in coaching decisions...

he's a good journalist and made the point of publishing that prediction, do you have anything more substantial that says otherwise?

 

[MyBudJT]

he's a good journalist and made the point of publishing that prediction, do you have anything more substantial that says otherwise?

No, everything at this point is speculation

 

[Randy Randerson]

No, everything at this point is speculation

Except one side is by a very good journalist. You're not on par with Mirtle

 

[MyBudJT]

Except one side is by a very good journalist. You're not on par with Mirtle

Lol, Mirtle’s word isn’t gospel... Are you willing to put money on Mirtle’s roster prediction being 100% accurate?

 

[Randy Randerson]

Lol, Mirtle’s word isn’t gospel... Are you willing to put money on Mirtle’s roster prediction being 100% accurate?

I'm willing to put money on Petan not being in the top 6, sure

 

[MyBudJT]

I'm willing to put money on Petan not being in the top 6, sure

THats not what I’m talking about. You’re saying Mirtle is a valid source thats proves our roster has already been decided upon.

 

[Randy Randerson]

THats not what I’m talking about. You’re saying Mirtle is a valid source thats proves our roster has already been decided upon.

can you quote where I said that?

 

[MyBudJT]

can you quote where I said that?

Don’t you remember?

Source indicating Johnsson and Mikheyev are penciled into top 6?

James Mirtle

Lol, as if Mirtle has any say in coaching decisions...

 

[Randy Randerson]

Don’t you remember?

here's what I remember:

sounds like it's Johnsson & Mikheyev that are likely to be the top two starting LW's until Hyman is back. Petan really doesn't have the tools for the role, the way the lines are constructed the LW needs to be the chase guy and he's not fast enough

I think you want your best players to have good tools around them, so I would leave Johnsson playing with one of the big lines because he's been extremely good in that role

 

[MyBudJT]

here's what I remember:

And that’s when I asked for your source....

 

[Randy Randerson]

And that’s when I asked for your source....

[MOD] All indications are that Johnsson and Mikheyev are the top two LW's to start the season at this point, and it's outlandish to think that Petan is in that mix. So if you want to bet that Petan makes it, I'll take that bet. Something tells me you'll try to twist away from that position though

 

[MyBudJT]

[MOD] All indications are that Johnsson and Mikheyev are the top two LW's to start the season at this point, and it's outlandish to think that Petan is in that mix. So if you want to bet that Petan makes it, I'll take that bet. Something tells me you'll try to twist away from that position though

I’m not the one saying our top six is likely set. I disagree with that.

I’m also not convinced Petan is going to play top 6, but think it’s a possibility. If Petan gets the opportunity and flourishes, he could very well score more points than Johnsson.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I’m not the one saying our top six is likely set. I disagree with that.

I’m also not convinced Petan is going to play top 6, but think it’s a possibility. If Petan gets the opportunity and flourishes, he could very well score more points than Johnsson.

that's nice, it shouldn't be confused with an informed opinion though

also can you prove in absolute that Petan could outscore Johnsson if he was put in that situation with external references? apparently that's the bar we're setting here

 

[Morbo]

My top 10

1. Matthews 52 goals-49 assists = 101 points
2. Marner 31 goals-66 assists = 97 points
3. Tavares 39 goals- 49 assists = 88 points
4. Rielly 12 goals- 59 assists = 71 points
5. Nylander 23 goals-44 assists= 67 points
6. Barrie: 10 goals- 47 assists= 57 points
7. Johnsson 22 goals- 27 assists=49 points
8. Kapanen 27 goals- 19 assists = 46 points
9. Muzzin 7 goals-34 assists= 41 points
10. Kerfoot 12 goals-25 assists= 37 points

seems realistic, I might swap Rielly and Barrie though...Barrie is going to have the season Rielly had this year offensively IMO.

 

[hamzarocks]

seems realistic, I might swap Rielly and Barrie though...Barrie is going to have the season Rielly had this year offensively IMO.

if Barrie gets time on pp1 than ya I could see him being mid to high 60s and Rielly mid to high 50s. 5v5 I expect them both to be elite at offense generation and among the top defenders league wide. Muzzin should also get a decent amount of points based off his natural talent for shooting the puck and a solid first pass. I expect ceci/dermott/harpur(if he's our 6th), to have a combined 50 points with none having more than 25 points. Our big 3 defenders will carry the offensive load.