MyBudJT
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- Mar 5, 2018
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Speculation: Top 10 Leafs scoring leaders for 2019-2020 - #7
- Thread starter Leafs1993
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Boutette
Been there done that
- Sep 28, 2017
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Kerfoot isn't a clear offensive downgrade from Kadri. They both had about the same amount of points on about the same TOI with the same quality of linemates, opposition and PP opportunity. However, Kadri was a shoot first player on a line of shoot first players each with pathetically low shooting percentages. Kerfoot is a pass first player who will likely be on a line with 2 other shooters each with the ability to pot 20 goals and he will likely get decent PP time. Maybe physically he's not Kadri, but 3rd line Kadri wasn't 30 goal 2nd line Kadri either. Offensively, I expect it to be a wash, as anyone should. Kadri wan't going to put up 50+ points in that role, but there's not reason to beleive that Kerfoot can't put up 40+ unless his linemates (likely Moore and Kapanen) suck way worse than Marleau and Brown did last year.
socko
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Kerfoot had 26 even strength points last year, Connor Brown had 25. Sakic isn't stupid, he's not trading Barrie and eating half his salary for an equal player.
Boutette
Been there done that
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And Kadri had a whopping 31 ES points. But this is besides the point. Sakic figures as a 2nd line shooting center, Kadri can get back to the production he managed 2/3 years ago. maybe he will, maybe those two years were an abberation. Either his sh% is going to get back above 10% or under 10 is his new norm. Colorado will find out.
Toronto has wingers like Moore and Kapanen who are shooters more than they are passers. That wasn't going to be a good fit with Kadri, as not having Nylander on Matthews wing isn't the best fit there. Kerfoot, however, being a passer, is likely a better fit where it comes to Moore and Kapanen.
socko
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I see Nylander as 60 point guy and Johnsson as 50 point guy. That's close enough that I could see Johnsson outscoring Nylander, especially if Johnsson plays on PP1. Nylander has had the advantage of playing with Matthews full time in the past but I can't see where Johnsson isn't in the top 6 this year. Although Babcock gonna Babcock.
lovemyleafs
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Hopefully. He was awful when he came back from that concussion last season.
I too, though, believe he'll bounce back in a big way this year.
20-30-50 type of season for him.
I think AJ will finish slightly ahead of him with 27-31-58pts
MyBudJT
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*spits out my coffee*
You were doing so good until that last statement! Wowza! Nearly 60 points???
Boutette
Been there done that
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Playing a full year with start from day one Nylander and Matthews and likely more PP time with Marleau, Kadri, and Ennis gone, what would you expect, no improvement or regression? He's better than Hyman, right? 40pts ES and a bunch on the PP doesn't sound out of the realm of possibility.
MyBudJT
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The thing is, I think a healthy Nylander and improving Kapanen (just 22 years old) takes points away from Johnsson... not that he’s worse then last year, but I’m not expecting a jump in offensive production.
I take Hyman over Johnsson 10 times out of 10. He MIGHT not score as many points but is rather easily the better player.
slozo
Registered User
I went off the board with Hyman.
I think that fluctuating linemates, positions and minutes for Kappy and Johnsson will soften their stats, and I believe Hyman plays a full season with Marner and Tavares, who are likely to improve on already amazing seasons.
It'll be close to 60 pts, career year for Zach, and again the hardest working guy on the team.
I think that fluctuating linemates, positions and minutes for Kappy and Johnsson will soften their stats, and I believe Hyman plays a full season with Marner and Tavares, who are likely to improve on already amazing seasons.
It'll be close to 60 pts, career year for Zach, and again the hardest working guy on the team.
I will eat my own shoe if Zach managed to get 60 points this year considering 1 he isn't that good offensively and 2 he will miss some time most likely.
Leafs1993
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Last year we had 4 players over 70 points. Is it possible to push that to 5 this year?
Matthews, Tavares, Marner,
Rielly? Nylander? Barrie?
This is where it gets really unpredictable. It literally could be any one of those guys at the #7 hole. And so many fortunes will rise and fall based on who gets PP time, which is obviously extremely difficult to get on the Leafs, even if you're a pretty good player.
Kerfoot, for instance, has a high likelihood of going from almost 150 minutes of PP time to close to none (where he got 12 of his 43 points last season, and 17 out of his 42 points in the season prior).
Hyman is good for his 40 points by virtue of the puck bouncing off his ass and to one of Tavares, Marner, and Matthews. Kapanen and Johnsson might both have a shot at breaking 50.
Kerfoot, for instance, has a high likelihood of going from almost 150 minutes of PP time to close to none (where he got 12 of his 43 points last season, and 17 out of his 42 points in the season prior).
Hyman is good for his 40 points by virtue of the puck bouncing off his ass and to one of Tavares, Marner, and Matthews. Kapanen and Johnsson might both have a shot at breaking 50.
If the coach started loading up the top pair and top 2 lines, it could be 6.
mashedpotato
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Leafs1993
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mashedpotato
full stack.
- Jan 10, 2012
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In all seriousness - everyone likes a professional that acts like a goofball occasionally.
I love McDavid but his automaton-like nature isn't particularly appealing to some.
Randy Randerson
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I would bet heavily against Rielly repeating that. He's a surefire #1D at this point but his shooting and OIsh percentages were like 40% higher than you would expect him to be able to maintain over a longer sample. He was pacing for 90ish points at one time last season on even more inflated underlying rates, and you saw those rates start to come back to earth down the stretch as that pace dropped way off
Nylander I think could replace him as a 70pt player but I think 3 is more likely than 5 over the 70 mark, but with a bunch of good supplemental scoring totals from other guys
Duffman955
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MyBudJT
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If Petan gets a shot at a Top 6 role (which I think he should, he hasn’t so far in the NHL) he might flourish in that role. He has produced when given the proper opportunity in every other level.
Johnsson was given top 6 minutes with Matthews and was a decent... but I think we can do better. All I’m saying is I wouldn’t be surprised if Petan breaks out similar to Marchesault (sp).... I don’t know why anyone would take offence to that...
Johnsson was given top 6 minutes with Matthews and was a decent... but I think we can do better. All I’m saying is I wouldn’t be surprised if Petan breaks out similar to Marchesault (sp).... I don’t know why anyone would take offence to that...
Randy Randerson
Registered User
it's just not a very rational approach, Petan has never managed to produce in the NHL, removing a guy in Johnsson who's last year was very like Marchessault's career average (including the very positive possession and possession relatives) in hopes that a former CHL scoring champion catches lightning in a bottle is just not a well advised move, it will blow up in your face 9 times out of 10 - Petan hasn't really done anything well in the NHL, Johnsson has scored but he's also an excellent possession player.
ironically, if you give Johnsson the extra 3.5mins of 5v5 time and minute of PP time per game that Marchessault gets, that's probably a very high odds bet of a Marchessault-like result.
and for some context, Johnsson might have had top 6 linemates for much of the year, but he was 286th among NHL forwards in ice time per game and still produced on a just under 50pt pace. So if you're doing the math on that, he got just under top 9 minutes and produced on a just under 1st line clip. This is a guy you should be excited about, from one Leaf fan to another.
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