Speculation: Too many "ifs" next season should make Toronto struggle make the playoffs

[TheProspector]

Bozak and JVR are big losses. No-one from the Marlies can replace JVR, and probably not Bozak. We're going from having a top-3 league-wide forward group to something far more middling.

Hopefully, our bottom-third league d-corps will see some substantial improvement to compensate for that, and I think it's altogether possible.

 

[TheProspector]

Are you seriously worried Moore, Plekanec, Polak and Komarov not returning? Did you lose sleep over how we lost Hunwick and Boyle last off-season?

Of the 4, Plekanec is the only 1 who really belongs in the NHL anymore and even then he only played all of 17 games for us.

The only real loss is JVR and even then 5 on 5 he's not a big loss. Bozak was bad 5 on 5 and was heavily sheltered. Those two were a major issue in the defensive issues with this team.

This team has all of Dermott, Kapanen, Johnsson who are ready to play fairly significant roles for us next year and all of them played less than half a season for us this past year. Even Borgman played 48 games and is that much more ready to contribute. We've got Aaltonen that much more ready and added Lindholm as potential depth C options. Grundstrom and Liljegren have a good chance of coming up part way through the season and contributing. That's a lot of depth graduating.

Management also has a lot of cap space this off-season so fully expect them to add some useful vets.

Honestly, even Pleks doesn't. And he was *never* good defensively.

 

[LeafFever]

Fan sfeel more comfortable with proven players, which is why Johnsson, despite looking good for the Leafs and being Playoff MVP in the AHL, is not even counted as an improvement., Komorov is a huge addition by subtraction. He looks finished.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Honestly, even Pleks doesn't. And he was *never* good defensively.

I still think he can be a 4th line center but.....ya all of 17 games he played for us and we've got two candidates to replace him and there are UFA's we could easily sign.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Bozak and JVR are big losses. No-one from the Marlies can replace JVR, and probably not Bozak. We're going from having a top-3 league-wide forward group to something far more middling.

Hopefully, our bottom-third league d-corps will see some substantial improvement to compensate for that, and I think it's altogether possible.

Losing Bozak and JVR will also make the team better off defensively. Whatever is lost offensively is likely off-set by defensive improvements in minutes going to Kapanen, Brown, Johnsson.

A full season of Dermott will help a lot as will a healthy Zaitsev.

The draft also hasn't even happened and the Leafs spend to the cap (and even beyond) every single year. I fully expect some vets to be brought in.

 

[LeafFever]

Bozak and JVR are big losses. No-one from the Marlies can replace JVR, and probably not Bozak. We're going from having a top-3 league-wide forward group to something far more middling.

Hopefully, our bottom-third league d-corps will see some substantial improvement to compensate for that, and I think it's altogether possible.

Yes, Johnsson absolutely can. He cannot be as good as JVR on the PP. No chance. But he can be a much better 5 on 5 player and is already.
JVR does 1 single thing good and offers nothing else. He's a 3rd line 5 on 5 player. You want to give a guy 8 years for that?
I am not sure fans of other teams would be freaking-out about losing Tyler Bozak. This is very typical of teams to face these losses every summer.

 

[seanlinden]

What specific holes do the Leafs have?

I’m sure Dubas has a template that he’s filled with a job descriptions for each position and has attached names to some of those positions.

Which positions don’t have names? Which have names but don’t quite fill the job description?

Roughly speaking....

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
Johnsson-_____-Brown
Leivo-_____-Kapanen
_____, Martin

Rielly-______
Gardiner-Zaitsev
______-Carrick
______

Andersen, Mac

Up front, it's a pretty weak left side; and asking quite a few of the young guys to step up into full time roles. If / when injuries do happen, that group will be tested even harder. Last year one of the leafs biggest strengths was having 3 lines that all scored at basically the same level. If they have any hope of having that this year, then that #3 centre spot has a very big hole in it; and there is nobody in the system capable to taking that spot.

On D, they theoretically should be fine using young guys to fill those last 2 spots, but there's obviously the big hole at the top.

 

[embracedbias]

Many fans seem to have little concern about the roster next season. I think many fans think that most of the UFA holes will be filled with graduating Marlies.

Polak, JVR, Moore, Bozak, Plekanec, and Komarov potentially all gone.

That's a grand total of 6 players to replace.

I know many of you can name off every Marlie plus Leivo and I still wouldn't be satisfied.

On paper the current team plus Polak, JVR, Moore, Bozak, Plekanec, and Komarov means 2nd or 3rd in the Atlantic. This current team plus all the "ifs" means no playoffs or possibly a wildcard spot.

The "ifs" are from a positive fans' perspective: if we trade for a D, if we find a couple of centers to replace the 3 that we lost, if the Marlies play well as NHLers, if Nylander plays center, if our elite prospects take a step, if no other Atlantic conference team takes a step, etc.

I just can't see us hitting a homerun with free agency, contracts, trades, and our Marlie Graduates creating a better team next year.

IMHO leaf fans can't be comfortable with this offseason, and I really can't see TOR to be better than a wildcard team.

Do you think TOR will be better next season? How so?

All of these players were in the bottom of our lineup in terms of TOI.

Komarov: 15:47 (7th overall among forwards)
Bozak: 15:39 (8th)
JVR: 14:54 (10th)
Plekanec: 11:03 (13th... he also only played 17 regular season games and hardly contributed to our place in the standings)
Moore: 10:18 (17th)

Polak: 17:39 (5th among dmen because of PK)

Teams don't typically go from 8th overall to out of the playoffs because they lose bottom-6 forwards and a bottom-pairing defenseman.

Dubas will definitely need to do something to address the PK (losing Komarov, Plekanec/Moore, and Polak), but we still have Hyman, Brown, and Kapanen. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gauthier make the team for PKing reasons, alone. Marincin is another candidate.

 

[Boutette]

Roughly speaking....

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
Johnsson-_____-Brown
Leivo-_____-Kapanen
_____, Martin

Rielly-______
Gardiner-Zaitsev
______-Carrick
______

Andersen, Mac

Up front, it's a pretty weak left side; and asking quite a few of the young guys to step up into full time roles. If / when injuries do happen, that group will be tested even harder. Last year one of the leafs biggest strengths was having 3 lines that all scored at basically the same level. If they have any hope of having that this year, then that #3 centre spot has a very big hole in it; and there is nobody in the system capable to taking that spot.

On D, they theoretically should be fine using young guys to fill those last 2 spots, but there's obviously the big hole at the top.

How is that a weak side? Hyman is a 40pt ES player. Marleau is a 25+ goal player. Johnsson is projected as a 20/20 third liner. Leivo is a 20+ pt 4th liner at worst. Sure we could use a couple of depth players, but what team couldn't?

 

[rent free]

How is that a weak side? Hyman is a 40pt ES player. Marleau is a 25+ goal player. Johnsson is projected as a 20/20 third liner. Leivo is a 20+ pt 4th liner at worst. Sure we could use a couple of depth players, but what team couldn't?

a 40 point player shouldn't be on your top line and Johnson may not hit those totals. he has only played 9 nhl games and is already 23 years old. for instance frank vatrano turned 24 three months ago and has yet to produce adeqautely in the nhl, despite being a goal per game player in the ahl at the age of 22. jvr was the teams only left winger that produces more than 50 points and he's all but gone at this point

 

[Liminality]

a 40 point player shouldn't be on your top line and Johnson may not hit those totals. he has only played 9 nhl games and is already 23 years old. for instance frank vatrano turned 24 three months ago and has yet to produce adeqautely in the nhl, despite being a goal per game player in the ahl at the age of 22. jvr was the teams only left winger that produces more than 50 points and he's all but gone at this point

He said 40 pt ES player, not just a 40 point player. Hyman had 38 EV, tied for 83rd for forwards in the league. That's around a lot of other first liners in the league.

Johnsson is a mystery as to what his top end will be but Marleau at least for next season seems like he'll put up similar numbers to past seasons.

 

[Nineteen67]

Roughly speaking....

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
Johnsson-_____-Brown
Leivo-_____-Kapanen
_____, Martin

Rielly-______
Gardiner-Zaitsev
______-Carrick
______

Andersen, Mac

Up front, it's a pretty weak left side; and asking quite a few of the young guys to step up into full time roles. If / when injuries do happen, that group will be tested even harder. Last year one of the leafs biggest strengths was having 3 lines that all scored at basically the same level. If they have any hope of having that this year, then that #3 centre spot has a very big hole in it; and there is nobody in the system capable to taking that spot.

On D, they theoretically should be fine using young guys to fill those last 2 spots, but there's obviously the big hole at the top.

A lot of blanks.

If Kadri is the number 2 C, one could argue they are weak there as well. Good player, but not a high level number 2 C.

One thing Polak did that other D didn’t do as well was his work on draws in their own end. There is a reason Babcock had him out there on defensive zone face offs. A lot of times I saw him knock his winger back, away fromthe puck when the Leafs would win the draw. Small thing, but it goes a long way.

 

[Liminality]

A lot of blanks.

If Kadri is the number 2 C, one could argue they are weak there as well. Good player, but not a high level number 2 C.

One thing Polak did that other D didn’t do as well was his work on draws in their own end. There is a reason Babcock had him out there on defensive zone face offs. A lot of times I saw him knock his winger back, away fromthe puck when the Leafs would win the draw. Small thing, but it goes a long way.

Just curious, which #2 centers are better than Kadri? Malkin obviously but arguably I don't think there's too many that are clear cut above him.

 

[LeafFever]

Kadri is only weak as a #2 compared to Pittsburgh. the guy's overall stats are better than majority as a 2nd line C.

 

[Boutette]

a 40 point player shouldn't be on your top line and Johnson may not hit those totals. he has only played 9 nhl games and is already 23 years old. for instance frank vatrano turned 24 three months ago and has yet to produce adeqautely in the nhl, despite being a goal per game player in the ahl at the age of 22. jvr was the teams only left winger that produces more than 50 points and he's all but gone at this point

JvR managed all of 34 ES points last year in a massively sheltered situation where he played against 3rd and 4th liners. Patrick Marleau? 36 pts. Who was the highest scoring left winger ES on the team, Hyman, with 38 pts, even though his center missed 20 games. But sure, Hyman shouldn't be on a first line on a team where the coach tends to roll his lines. As for Frank Vatrano? He was slapped on the 4th line in Boston, much like Kapanen has been here. Move him to Florida, suddenly he's scoring at 40+ pt pace. Why? oh wait, look at his TOI, look at who he's playing with. Context is reality, sir.

 

[ITM]

Just curious, which #2 centers are better than Kadri? Malkin obviously but arguably I don't think there's too many that are clear cut above him.

And at his cap hit. Off the top of my head I can think of Trocheck and Couturier. But Kadri for all his intangibles, his cap hit...Tough to complain about having him in that #2 spot.

 

[rent free]

He said 40 pt ES player, not just a 40 point player. Hyman had 38 EV, tied for 83rd for forwards in the league. That's around a lot of other first liners in the league.

Johnsson is a mystery as to what his top end will be but Marleau at least for next season seems like he'll put up similar numbers to past seasons.

well considering we have a mystery box on our 3rd line, a grinder on the top line and an old dude on the 2nd line, its worrisome for sure. no one puts up first line production between those guys and it looks like they won't. hyman won't get pp time, marleau is aging and johnson will get limited minutes i'm sure of

 

[rent free]

JvR managed all of 34 ES points last year in a massively sheltered situation where he played against 3rd and 4th liners. Patrick Marleau? 36 pts. Who was the highest scoring left winger ES on the team, Hyman, with 38 pts, even though his center missed 20 games. But sure, Hyman shouldn't be on a first line on a team where the coach tends to roll his lines. As for Frank Vatrano? He was slapped on the 4th line in Boston, much like Kapanen has been here. Move him to Florida, suddenly he's scoring at 40+ pt pace. Why? oh wait, look at his TOI, look at who he's playing with. Context is reality, sir.

well considering we have a mystery box on our 3rd line, a grinder on the top line and an old dude on the 2nd line, its worrisome for sure. no one puts up first line production between those guys and it looks like they won't. hyman won't get pp time, marleau is aging and johnson will get limited minutes i'm sure of

 

[Liminality]

well considering we have a mystery box on our 3rd line, a grinder on the top line and an old dude on the 2nd line, its worrisome for sure. no one puts up first line production between those guys and it looks like they won't. hyman won't get pp time, marleau is aging and johnson will get limited minutes i'm sure of

But he does put up 1st line even strength numbers...heck maybe Hyman gets JVR's spot on the PP this year who knows.

 

[Nineteen67]

Kadri is only weak as a #2 compared to Pittsburgh. the guy's overall stats are better than majority as a 2nd line C.

Maybe - Washington, Pitt, TB, Buffalo

 

[rent free]

But he does put up 1st line even strength numbers...heck maybe Hyman gets JVR's spot on the PP this year who knows.

doubt it. that spot goes to johnson or leivo

 

[Boutette]

well considering we have a mystery box on our 3rd line, a grinder on the top line and an old dude on the 2nd line, its worrisome for sure. no one puts up first line production between those guys and it looks like they won't. hyman won't get pp time, marleau is aging and johnson will get limited minutes i'm sure of

Grinders aren't one of the leaders in ES points on one of the highest scoring teams in the league. Mystery boxes don't force one of the coach's favorite players out of the line up in the playoffs. I'll grant you there's an old dude on our second line, but he also played against the toughest competition and still scored 26 goals. But sure, worry if you feel the need.

 

[Trapper]

Kadri is only weak as a #2 compared to Pittsburgh. the guy's overall stats are better than majority as a 2nd line C.

Kadri is fine as a no. 2 center.
My concern is no. 3 C if Nylander stays at wing.
Not sure what’s going on with Aaltonen but that leaves Lindholm and Gauthier as NHL ready centres in our organization. Not good enough and it will strain the top 2.

 

[seanlinden]

How is that a weak side? Hyman is a 40pt ES player. Marleau is a 25+ goal player. Johnsson is projected as a 20/20 third liner. Leivo is a 20+ pt 4th liner at worst. Sure we could use a couple of depth players, but what team couldn't?

That 40pt player is only there by virtue of riding the coattails of Matthews/Nylander. Reality is, in any other situation, he's a 25-pt 3rd line grinder; and if injuries were to occur, or Matthews-Nylander begin to struggle without having the JvR-Bozak combo to take some of the offensive burden; then that's what they'll have in Zach Hyman.

Marleau is a 25 goal guy, but he's also 38 years old turning 39. Johnsson may one day become a 20/20 guy, but he's not there yet.

Depth players aren't really the issue on the left side. They're using a depth player on the 1st line in Hyman, Marleau is really best suited on a 2nd line, and they've got another couple 3rd/4th liners in Johnsson/Leivo. It's more the lack of a true top 6 / top line guy.

Do they need to go out and get a 35-goal scoring Left winger? No, but a solid 20-25 guy would really help ensure that the Leafs can roll 3 scoring lines next year.

Having JvR & Bozak allowed the Leafs to roll 3 lines, which is what in turn allowed Hyman to succeed on the top line.

 

[Nithoniniel]

That 40pt player is only there by virtue of riding the coattails of Matthews/Nylander. Reality is, in any other situation, he's a 25-pt 3rd line grinder; and if injuries were to occur, or Matthews-Nylander begin to struggle without having the JvR-Bozak combo to take some of the offensive burden; then that's what they'll have in Zach Hyman.

Marleau is a 25 goal guy, but he's also 38 years old turning 39. Johnsson may one day become a 20/20 guy, but he's not there yet.

Depth players aren't really the issue on the left side. They're using a depth player on the 1st line in Hyman, Marleau is really best suited on a 2nd line, and they've got another couple 3rd/4th liners in Johnsson/Leivo. It's more the lack of a true top 6 / top line guy.

Do they need to go out and get a 35-goal scoring Left winger? No, but a solid 20-25 guy would really help ensure that the Leafs can roll 3 scoring lines next year.

Having JvR & Bozak allowed the Leafs to roll 3 lines, which is what in turn allowed Hyman to succeed on the top line.

I disagree with a few things here. For one, JvR and Bozak as a combination made Babcock move more towards a clear top six than he has since the glory days of Datsyuk and Zetterberg. He basically used them in the second half of the season like a line he considered a liability. I also would like to point out that 40 points is not bad regardless of linemates, and I definitely think Johnsson could be a 20/20 guy next season depending on usage.