Player Discussion Tony DeAngelo: Part IV

[SnowblindNYR]

It's not how complicated a field is, it is how well the variables are isolated, quantified and tracked. Hockey has tons of variables not tracked, or they're estimated based on other somewhat correlated variables, and this leads to weaker data, especially as we delve deeper into more advanced stats. Everything is quantified in baseball and so advanced statistics is much more useful (for now).

Sure, Strome's shot % is way up, it'd be nice to quantify why that is. Is his decision making after touching the puck quicker? Is he using his teamates better? Did he improve his release? Are they all the same as it was for him previously? Saying 'he'll regress to his average' tends to be true, but it'd be nice to show he's doing everything at the same level he was previously so it must be that luck is on his side now which eventually will shift back.

There are two main questions:

1) Are analytics in hockey useful?

2) Are the current analytics in hockey useful?

Now, even the answer to the first isn't 100% clearcut but I'm a data nerd and I think that potentially down the line everything can be improved with analytics. However, if someone has a sophisticated argument about why analytics are not useful in hockey please share it. But keyword is "sophisticated".

Now the second question is a lot more up for debate, IMHO. The people making THIS argument are almost exclusively people that have a solid understanding of analytics and hockey. I would criticize these people.

The point of this thread was about the folks that have no argument other than being uncomfortable with change and not liking "nerds" and thinking they're above them. Those are the people that bother me. Now, I don't think there are THAT many people like that but there are enough. I bet most hockey players fall into that category. But these guys have a vested interest in the eye test since they're the type of experts that the eye test reveres. Rather than you know guys that have possibly never played a minute of hockey and can add, subtract, and multiply.

Edit: The thread I was referring to was my thread on the main boards that I thought this was. The rest is relevant to this thread too.

 

[offdacrossbar]

What do we do with DeAngelo? The coach obviously prefers Trouba and Fox while DeAngelo is tied for 13th in scoring by a defenseman without big minutes. Do we try him on the left side with Trouba? He needs to play more, his offensive talent is too high to play the minutes he is getting.

it wasnt that long ago that he led the team with 22+ mins one game

he was playing 20 mins per for a while.

quinn goes with the flow. right now, the flow is adam fox.

tony will get back there. things will balance out.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Outside of Tony taking a massive discount I dont see any way he is here next year, and I dont see him missing out on what could be his best chance to get paid, and I dont blame him either. May as well get something we need from him, give fox more minutes and add a cheap player to play 3rd pair mins. If we hadn't acquired Fox last year he would definitely be here for the long term, I'm doubtful now.

 

[Sayba]

it wasnt that long ago that he led the team with 22+ mins one game

he was playing 20 mins per for a while.

quinn goes with the flow. right now, the flow is adam fox.

tony will get back there. things will balance out.

I don't think so, there are only so many minutes to go around on right side for Tony to get the consistent minutes he deserves. Quinn will nee be creative to get these 3 RD our best 3 defenseman 20 + minutes a night.

 

[aufheben]

Outside of Tony taking a massive discount I dont see any way he is here next year, and I dont see him missing out on what could be his best chance to get paid, and I dont blame him either. May as well get something we need from him, give fox more minutes and add a cheap player to play 3rd pair mins. If we hadn't acquired Fox last year he would definitely be here for the long term, I'm doubtful now.

Assuming Strome, Kreider, and Fast are gone, I don't see how they wouldn't be able to keep him—at least in the short-term. I really don't think he's going to get quite as much $ as people think.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Outside of Tony taking a massive discount I dont see any way he is here next year, and I dont see him missing out on what could be his best chance to get paid, and I dont blame him either. May as well get something we need from him, give fox more minutes and add a cheap player to play 3rd pair mins. If we hadn't acquired Fox last year he would definitely be here for the long term, I'm doubtful now.

this is false.

 

[Rongomania]

this is false.

Ya. Kreider, Strome possibly fast,
I just have a feeling that all of that, plus, say a Georgiev. Could we possibly net the (close to) Step deal, plus the McD, Grabs & Nash deals all in the same season?

Pending on what comes back to us, there's clearly enough loot for Lemmy & Tony to long term deals.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

this is false.

No it isn't

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Ya. Kreider, Strome possibly fast,
I just have a feeling that all of that, plus, say a Georgiev. Could we possibly net the (close to) Step deal, plus the McD, Grabs & Nash deals all in the same season?

Pending on what comes back to us, there's clearly enough loot for Lemmy & Tony to long term deals.

Except that we arent paying someone a lot of money to play on the 3rd pair. DeAngelo is already being outplayed by fox.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Trouba signing will be the biggest mistake of our rebuild.

 

[Rangerfan4life90]

Trouba signing will be the biggest mistake of our rebuild.

1) No, it's not

2) The Rangers could still move him before his no movement/trade clause kicks in next July if they really, really wanted to

 

[Rempe73]

Trouba signing will be the biggest mistake of our rebuild.

I wouldn’t say biggest, but pretty big indeed. If he’s here, and plays in the top 4, one of DeAngelo or Fox will have to play on the 3rd pairing. If DeAngelo and Fox are in our top 4, we’re paying 8 mil a year for a 3rd pairing defenseman. If we lose DeAngelo because of the Trouba signing, I’m gonna be so pissed. And this is even before Lundkvist, who looks good as well, gets into the conversation. It’s a good problem to have I guess, as we have 3 very good RHD, and another good one coming up, but I don’t know. 8 mil for Trouba is a lot.

Maybe we could balance out the pairings.

Skjei - Trouba
Lindgren - DeAngelo
Hajek/Rykov - Fox

About 20 minutes for each pair.

 

[usekakkorightquinn]

They had to sign Trouba because they don't put anything into drafting right handed defenseman with size in first or second rounds since McIlrath. Thus, they didn't have any. DeAngelo, Kreider, Fast and Georgiev. Somekind of package with those players will be used to bring in a proven, young talent from a team looking go for it or rebuild. DeAngelo and Georgiev to a rebuilding team is a nice package. Anaheim comes to mind. They stink.

 

[n8]

while we don't have all the info, I thought the Rangers were dumb playing hard ball with him this summer. I thought they could have easily signed him to a 2 year $1.25M contract. EASILY. He was gonna earn it. And they were obviously working on the Namestnikov trade the whole time so they knew they were gonna have cap space so it all reeks to me. ADA is gonna throw the hard ball back to Ranger management and when you see players like Provorov sign a $6,750,000 extension (LUL), Pionk reupped at $3,000,000. Shea Theodore at $5,200,000. Sanheim at $3,250,000. Carlo at $2,850,000. ADA is gonna hold out for at least $3M IMO. If they go to arbitration, I think he could easily make over that amount given the examples I listed. Shea Theodore hit 29 points in 61 games and got that monster 7 year contract and ADA had 30 in 61 last season. Actually that means they bought 2 of his UFA years which would explain why his number is so much higher. Same with Provorov. ADA UFA year is 2023 so the next contract would be 3 years to take him to that date.

TL;DR ADA will get a 3 year $3,000,000+ contract. If the Rangers want to sign him longer, they will have to sign him to a 5 year $6,000,000 contract.

 

[Larrybiv]

Trouba signing will be the biggest mistake of our rebuild.

Ha! Finally someone said it! Oh wait, I have said that before. Again, this organization jumped to a conclusion "exterior" from what they already had "in house". Getting Fox was amazing, especially what we paid to get him. They obviously didnt have enough confidence in Tony nor the cash for him AND Trouba.
Fox exceeding every expectation has pushed tbis situation to the brink of disaster. I suppose its a good situation for the Rangers though. Injuries happen and what "was" a position of weakness has become an offensive STRENGTH, now they have to get better defensively. With the big money they gave Trouba, he has to be better.
On the flip end, NOT getting Trouba meant putting all your eggs in one basket and "counting on" an unknown (Fox) and a sometimes worrisome Tony D. Who should be named Tony O.

 

[Rongomania]

Except that we arent paying someone a lot of money to play on the 3rd pair. DeAngelo is already being outplayed by fox.

Foxy is a rookie and Troubda doesn't deserve 1rd, honestly. If fox and Tony both continue this play then it's Troubda and his contract that need to go ala Stepan.

You don't sell off a d man doing what Tony has been doing this year.

 

[Rongomania]

Foxy is a rookie and Troubda doesn't deserve 1rd, honestly. If fox and Tony both continue this play then it's Troubda and his contract that need to go ala Stepan.

You don't sell off a d man doing what Tony has been doing this year.

** also, we must note that obviously the cap will go up and Tony's 5-6 mil will not hurt this team in three years when fox needs real money.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Trouba isn’t going anywhere. Tony is better offensively but Trouba can play the 1D minutes better than Tony would be able too.

As good as DeAngelo is, he’s not cut out to carry the load defensively, and is succeeding because someone like Trouba is in front of him to handle those minutes.

Some of you guys are serious homers

 

[Do you want ants]

Why do we have to do anything until one of the RD prospects force us to do anything? Having 3 RD capable of playing 20+ mins isn’t an issue. Don’t we want that when this team is competing in the playoffs?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

No it isn't

Yes it is

 

[romba]

Trouba isn’t going anywhere. Tony is better offensively but Trouba can play the 1D minutes better than Tony would be able too.

As good as DeAngelo is, he’s not cut out to carry the load defensively, and is succeeding because someone like Trouba is in front of him to handle those minutes.

Some of you guys are serious homers

Yea, the other team's skill and line up is an irrelevant variable- the Hurricanes, for example, are all the same person with a different number on lines 1-4, so it really doesn't matter who our guys line up against, no such thing as tougher minutes or level of competition.

 

[Crease]

Why do we have to do anything until one of the RD prospects force us to do anything? Having 3 RD capable of playing 20+ mins isn’t an issue. Don’t we want that when this team is competing in the playoffs?

Yeah I don't get the perceived urgency here to resolve some logjam. The two best seasons of the decade the Rangers had:

McDonagh
Girardi
Staal
Klein
Yandle
Boyle

McDonagh
Stralman
Girardi
Staal
Klein
Moore

 

[usekakkorightquinn]

Why do we have to do anything until one of the RD prospects force us to do anything? Having 3 RD capable of playing 20+ mins isn’t an issue. Don’t we want that when this team is competing in the playoffs?

Because DeAngelo was already greedy with his last contract when he had accomplished nothing. If he puts up 50 to 60 points he will ask for more than Skjei. No thanks. Not with his limited defensive game. Holding out will only decrease his value during the off-season. Better to deal him to a contender at the deadline and maximize his value.

 

[JohnC]

One of the RDs can move to LD. You don't move good players just because you have to, you make it work.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

One of the RDs can move to LD. You don't move good players just because you have to, you make it work.

Exactly.

Fox-Trouba
Skjei-Lundkvist
Miller-DeAngelo

Go with that in 2021 or 2022. I don't think they will get rid of DeAngelo unless they cannot afford him