Player Discussion Tony DeAngelo (MOD WARNINGS: Post #12/#900)

[free0717]

Does anyone ADA becomes a fulltime NHL defensemen under David Quinns tutelege?

Click to read more...

 

[Kakko]

I'd certainly say it's a make or break year for him, and I expect him to get a major shot. Either make it, or get Clendening'd

 

[Edge]

Nah, if the standard were a lower number — like 40 or 50 games, I’d be more open to the idea.

But I think we already set the threshold pretty high and he’s already over that.

But for arguments sake, I’d probably put him just after Pionk at this point, while fully acknowledging he could be an NHL regular or an afterthought this time next season.

 

[Blue Blooded]

FWIW I would've had him at #1 if he were included.

Then again I would've picked him 1st overall in 2014 (at the time, if trading down is not an option).

 

[Filthy Dangles]

FWIW I would've had him at #1 if he were included.

Then again I would've picked him 1st overall in 2014 (at the time, if trading down is not an option).

Uh....

 

[Blue Blooded]

Uh....

At the time I thought he legitimately had Paul Coffey-level upside and I still think he does.

His CHL scoring compared to his team (player PPG/team GPG), which I think is a fair adjustment for defencemen since they are more dependent on their teammates to put up points than forwards, was actually better than Coffey's. It was better than Brian Fogarty's in his 155 point season. In his draft year it was even better than Bobby Orr's. He put up the highest ever PPG/GPG percentage for a defenceman I've been able to find in the history of the CHL.

The difference between DeAngelo's draft year (1.39 PPG) and Ryan Ellis' (1.56 PPG) or Ryan Murphy's (1.25 PPG) is that the latter two did so on teams that scored A LOT more (4.57 GPG and 3.77 GPG) than DeAngelo's did (3.10 GPG). DeAngelo's PPG was 44.87% of his team's, Ellis' was 34.14% and Murphy's 33.31%.

In his D+1 season he "only" had a PPG of 38.41% of Sarnia's GPG (1.31 PPG) before he was traded to Soo where he put up 39.00% (1.96 PPG). Percentage stayed roughly the same, but the PPG skyrocketed when he had the chance to play with good teammates.

 

[eco's bones]

At the time I thought he legitimately had Paul Coffey-level upside and I still think he does.

His CHL scoring compared to his team (player PPG/team GPG), which I think is a fair adjustment for defencemen since they are more dependent on their teammates to put up points than forwards, was actually better than Coffey's. It was better than Brian Fogarty's in his 155 point season. In his draft year it was even better than Bobby Orr's. He put up the highest ever PPG/GPG percentage for a defenceman I've been able to find in the history of the CHL.

The difference between DeAngelo's draft year (1.39 PPG) and Ryan Ellis' (1.56 PPG) or Ryan Murphy's (1.25 PPG) is that the latter two did so on teams that scored A LOT more (4.57 GPG and 3.77 GPG) than DeAngelo's did (3.10 GPG). DeAngelo's PPG was 44.87% of his team's, Ellis' was 34.14% and Murphy's 33.31%.

In his D+1 season he "only" had a PPG of 38.41% of Sarnia's GPG (1.31 PPG) before he was traded to Soo where he put up 39.00% (1.96 PPG). Percentage stayed roughly the same, but the PPG skyrocketed when he had the chance to play with good teammates.

I think it's time to ditch the Coffey comparison. Tony's been a pro 3 years now and IMO that is what you really should be looking at more than the gaudy CHL numbers. So--just how well has he been able to adapt his CHL game to the pros?

15-16 43 pts. in 69 AHL games.
16-17 16 pts. in 25 AHL games 14 pts. in 39 NHL games.
17-18 13 pts. in 29 AHL games 8 pts. in 32 NHL games.

His strength is his offensive game for sure but nothing in his first 3 years pro points to a HOF career let alone his becoming a #1D. If he can't be a #1 D he really will need to improve his defending to even think of him as a second pairing guy and right now his defending is at a sub-Del Zotto level. 2015-16 wasn't bad but I'm wondering really how much improvement over the next two years. Sure he got some NHL time but it wasn't with his first team Tampa--it was with two weaker teams--rock bottom Arizona and freefalling Rangers.

He'll be 23 in late October. He still has time but it is running out and where he is now he's way closer to Fogarty than he is to Coffey.

 

[Edge]

Forget Coffey.

I think ADA's "goal" would be to eventually get himself into Shattenkirk territory.

 

[Blue Blooded]

I think it's time to ditch the Coffey comparison. Tony's been a pro 3 years now and IMO that is what you really should be looking at more than the gaudy CHL numbers. So--just how well has he been able to adapt his CHL game to the pros?

15-16 43 pts. in 69 AHL games.
16-17 16 pts. in 25 AHL games 14 pts. in 39 NHL games.
17-18 13 pts. in 29 AHL games 8 pts. in 32 NHL games.

His strength is his offensive game for sure but nothing in his first 3 years pro points to a HOF career let alone his becoming a #1D. If he can't be a #1 D he really will need to improve his defending to even think of him as a second pairing guy and right now his defending is at a sub-Del Zotto level. 2015-16 wasn't bad but I'm wondering really how much improvement over the next two years. Sure he got some NHL time but it wasn't with his first team Tampa--it was with two weaker teams--rock bottom Arizona and freefalling Rangers.

He'll be 23 in late October. He still has time but it is running out and where he is now he's way closer to Fogarty than he is to Coffey.

As long as he's played on a non-terrible team during his pro career (i.e. Syracuse and Tuscon) his stats have been very good. His production has only dropped off when playing on complete dumpster fires such as the 16-17 Yotes and the 17-18 Wolf Pack. While his numbers on a bad-to-terrible Rangers team were awful, his underlying stats had him as the 4th best defenceman in the league in terms of projected 5v5 points (behind Burns, Barrie and Karlsson) and 3rd in projected primary points (behind Burns and Karlsson). His zone exit/entry stats were McDavid-tier as well, the top percentiles were as far as I could tell basically McDavid, MacKinnon, Karlsson and DeAngelo with the rest of the defencemen way behind (forwards tend to have a lot better metrics than defencemen in terms of exits/entries).

I see a supremely talented player that has been jerked around and put into positions to fail. Partner him with Skjei and give him the leeway to make a few mistakes and I bet he'll surprise a lot of people.

 

[eco's bones]

As long as he's played on a non-terrible team during his pro career (i.e. Syracuse and Tuscon) his stats have been very good. His production has only dropped off when playing on complete dumpster fires such as the 16-17 Yotes and the 17-18 Wolf Pack. While his numbers on a bad-to-terrible Rangers team were awful, his underlying stats had him as the 4th best defenceman in the league in terms of projected 5v5 points (behind Burns, Barrie and Karlsson) and 3rd in projected primary points (behind Burns and Karlsson). His zone exit/entry stats were McDavid-tier as well, the top percentiles were as far as I could tell basically McDavid, MacKinnon, Karlsson and DeAngelo with the rest of the defencemen way behind (forwards tend to have a lot better metrics than defencemen in terms of exits/entries).

I see a supremely talented player that has been jerked around and put into positions to fail. Partner him with Skjei and give him the leeway to make a few mistakes and I bet he'll surprise a lot of people.

0 goals last year. 2 assists at even strength in 32 NHL games last year. He is slick---there is no doubt of that but the offensive part of his game (which is his biggest strength) was very underwhelming last year. Actual production needs to be there for him especially because his positioning and defending are below average and still very much a work in progress. He's not someone you want on your penalty kill and pretty much you need at least 4 (and it's better if it's 5) of your 6 dmen to be capable of killing penalties. I like his feistiness---we can use that but it's like he still hasn't put his game together.

....and his stats are nowhere near where his stats were as a junior player. Not all of that offensive game of his made the jump to the pros. So again what he did in the CHL isn't applicable anymore. He is going into his 4th year as a pro. You should throw those junior numbers right out the window. And he's certainly not going to be anywhere near as good as Burns or Karlsson. They are both legit #1 defensemen. Anyone claiming that is in DeAngelo's future is IMO out to lunch. He wasn't even a #1D on Hartford's 'dumpster fire' of a defense last year. There are multiple issues with his own game that he has to work on and multiple obstacles in his way just to make the Rangers out of training camp this coming year.

How Quinn is going to see him or the other right side D I don't think I know apart from one thing---Kevin Shattenkirk (his former player and the Rangers 2nd highest cap hit) is very likely going to be the defenseman the offense---particularly the power play revolves around. That drops DeAngelo to at best to the 2nd pair but IMO the Rangers like Neal Pionk a lot more primarily because Neal has an offensive skillset too but he's also a better all around player. Then where does Brendan Smith fit in?--Left side?--behind Skjei and Staal or Right side? After that are Claesson, Kampfer, Hajek if he can make a run, O'Gara etc. It's not unlikely that the Rangers opt for safe and steady on the bottom pair over offensive skillset. Like I said Tony has some obstacles in his way. He needs to have a big training camp and then he needs to take it and sustain it throughout the season.

 

[Blue Blooded]

0 goals last year. 2 assists at even strength in 32 NHL games last year. He is slick---there is no doubt of that but the offensive part of his game (which is his biggest strength) was very underwhelming last year. Actual production needs to be there for him especially because his positioning and defending are below average and still very much a work in progress. He's not someone you want on your penalty kill and pretty much you need at least 4 (and it's better if it's 5) of your 6 dmen to be capable of killing penalties. I like his feistiness---we can use that but it's like he still hasn't put his game together.

....and his stats are nowhere near where his stats were as a junior player. Not all of that offensive game of his made the jump to the pros. So again what he did in the CHL isn't applicable anymore. He is going into his 4th year as a pro. You should throw those junior numbers right out the window. And he's certainly not going to be anywhere near as good as Burns or Karlsson. They are both legit #1 defensemen. Anyone claiming that is in DeAngelo's future is IMO out to lunch. He wasn't even a #1D on Hartford's 'dumpster fire' of a defense last year. There are multiple issues with his own game that he has to work on and multiple obstacles in his way just to make the Rangers out of training camp this coming year.

How Quinn is going to see him or the other right side D I don't think I know apart from one thing---Kevin Shattenkirk (his former player and the Rangers 2nd highest cap hit) is very likely going to be the defenseman the offense---particularly the power play revolves around. That drops DeAngelo to at best to the 2nd pair but IMO the Rangers like Neal Pionk a lot more primarily because Neal has an offensive skillset too but he's also a better all around player. Then where does Brendan Smith fit in?--Left side?--behind Skjei and Staal or Right side? After that are Claesson, Kampfer, Hajek if he can make a run, O'Gara etc. It's not unlikely that the Rangers opt for safe and steady on the bottom pair over offensive skillset. Like I said Tony has some obstacles in his way. He needs to have a big training camp and then he needs to take it and sustain it throughout the season.

I mention the CHL numbers because they indicate his upside, you cannot do what he did without elite talent.

As for his offensive game last season, his underlying stats indicate that it was incredibly good. The projected scoring numbers were not listed to say he was as good as Karlsson/Burns, but that his play should've resulted in a lot more points than his stat line ended up being. In addition, not only did he dominate the transition game - he managed to be in the 93rd percentile in terms of shot contributions and shot assists (again, including forwards). But a combination of bad luck and those assists being to Paul Carey and David Desharnais (AV sure liked to play ADA with the 4th line) stopped it from showing up on the scoresheet.

No, it's certainly not a guarantee that Quinn will give DeAngelo a good situation to play in - or even play him at all. I'm just saying that in my opinion his history and play at every level indicate that his upside is probably higher than any other NYR controlled player and we shouldn't let that slip by.

 

[Krams]

New season, we're going to try this thread again. Let's please keep focused on his on-ice play or you'll be removed.

 

[Fitzy]

Forget Coffey.

I think ADA's "goal" would be to eventually get himself into Shattenkirk territory.

He's a different kind of player- better pivotal skating but less accurate shot and slower release. But if the point is what kind of production and position on the pairings he might max out at, I agree.

I see more of a Dan Boyle type (in terms of absolute ceiling) in ADA.

 

[Off Sides]

I am going with, if they give him enough games, deal with what he does, eventually he could turn out to be a NHLer. I think he has the skill level of a top 4, but I'm not sure his decision making gets him there. I like that he is aggressive and talented but I think it gets him into trouble sometimes where he'd be better off just making a simpler play. Not that I'd want to see him play a boring game, just pick his spots better, something I think Pionk does quite well by contrast. I think ADA was doing that better towards the end of last season and it's too bad he was injured.

 

[eco's bones]

This year is going to be big for Tony. If guys in his age group or younger outplay him in training camp I can see the Rangers trying to move him. For one---they won't be able to send him to Hartford without passing him through waivers. Pionk OTOH could go to Hartford but from what I saw last year Pionk has an overall game that DeAngelo doesn't or hasn't shown yet--you can play Neal in every situation. Pionk also has comparable offensive skills. Really I think it's going to be either the one or the other--if Tony makes the team Neal goes to Hartford--if Neal makes the team DeAngelo gets moved because of the likelihood he'd be grabbed on waivers. Shattenkirk and Smith likely to be the other two RD. That's all barring injuries.

 

[True Blue]

This year is going to be big for Tony. If guys in his age group or younger outplay him in training camp I can see the Rangers trying to move him. For one---they won't be able to send him to Hartford without passing him through waivers. Pionk OTOH could go to Hartford but from what I saw last year Pionk has an overall game that DeAngelo doesn't or hasn't shown yet--you can play Neal in every situation. Pionk also has comparable offensive skills. Really I think it's going to be either the one or the other--if Tony makes the team Neal goes to Hartford--if Neal makes the team DeAngelo gets moved because of the likelihood he'd be grabbed on waivers. Shattenkirk and Smith likely to be the other two RD. That's all barring injuries.

Or Smith plays the left side and both of Pionk & DeAngelo make it. Regardless, I agree that this is probably a make or break year for him.

 

[nyr2k2]

I mention the CHL numbers because they indicate his upside, you cannot do what he did without elite talent.

As for his offensive game last season, his underlying stats indicate that it was incredibly good. The projected scoring numbers were not listed to say he was as good as Karlsson/Burns, but that his play should've resulted in a lot more points than his stat line ended up being. In addition, not only did he dominate the transition game - he managed to be in the 93rd percentile in terms of shot contributions and shot assists (again, including forwards). But a combination of bad luck and those assists being to Paul Carey and David Desharnais (AV sure liked to play ADA with the 4th line) stopped it from showing up on the scoresheet.

No, it's certainly not a guarantee that Quinn will give DeAngelo a good situation to play in - or even play him at all. I'm just saying that in my opinion his history and play at every level indicate that his upside is probably higher than any other NYR controlled player and we shouldn't let that slip by.

Lots of guys score crazy points in the CHL and have no elite talent.

I think ADA sticks as a ~35 point guy or is in another organization next year.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Lots of guys score crazy points in the CHL and have no elite talent.

I think ADA sticks as a ~35 point guy or is in another organization next year.

The only defencemen who scored like DeAngelo in the CHL and didn't make it as 1st pairing guys are Brian Fogarty and Ryan Murphy. I assume we all know the tragic story of Fogarty and Murphy was ruined by concussions. Even then, Fogarty didn't get close to DeAngelo until his D+2 season and while Murphy's D season was very good (he came close to repeating it) it wasn't really on DeAngelo's level TBH.

Adjusting for team GPG like I did, the only CHL seasons that can even be compared to DeAngelo's D season (44.87%) is Bobby Orr's "D" season (44.24%), Ryan Ellis' D+2 season (41.87%), Brian Fogarty's D+2 season (41.59%) and DeAngelo's own D+1 season (38.41%). The next guy on the list is Doug Wilson's D season (34.84%). I might have missed someone, since I did this by hand last summer, but I don't think so.

 

[NYR Viper]

I think if DeAngelo gets some PP time and regular minutes, I'd be looking for him to get 30-35 points this year with 45-50 point upside in the future.

 

[Rangers in 7]

he in my opinion could be a top 4 defensemen and i dont think playing under AV helped him at all last year

playing in the right system and him growing a little more as a player he can put up 40 points

 

[TheTakedown]

What happened with fogerty as a reason for him not developing? I've never seen it mentioned or discussed here

 

[Tawnos]

The only defencemen who scored like DeAngelo in the CHL and didn't make it as 1st pairing guys are Brian Fogarty and Ryan Murphy. I assume we all know the tragic story of Fogarty and Murphy was ruined by concussions. Even then, Fogarty didn't get close to DeAngelo until his D+2 season and while Murphy's D season was very good (he came close to repeating it) it wasn't really on DeAngelo's level TBH.

Adjusting for team GPG like I did, the only CHL seasons that can even be compared to DeAngelo's D season (44.87%) is Bobby Orr's "D" season (44.24%), Ryan Ellis' D+2 season (41.87%), Brian Fogarty's D+2 season (41.59%) and DeAngelo's own D+1 season (38.41%). The next guy on the list is Doug Wilson's D season (34.84%). I might have missed someone, since I did this by hand last summer, but I don't think so.

Sometimes, high end junior production happens because a player is a step ahead in terms of development compared to his peers. It isn’t purely about talent at that level.

I’m not sure which it is with DeAngelo yet, but I am not encouraged by his last season.

 

[NYR713]

I'll give him another shot with a new coach before I make any final judgments, but I don't have much confidence he's going to turn into an every day NHL defenseman. I thought he looked OK in preseason with Skjei, but then real game speed I thought he was way over-matched. Again, new coach so I'll reserve my full judgement for a bit.

 

[Blue Blooded]

What happened with fogerty as a reason for him not developing? I've never seen it mentioned or discussed here

He had crippling social anxiety which he treated with alcohol and became an alcoholic. A famous quote from a teammate (paraphrased): "he does things on the ice drunk I cannot do sober".

Died in 2002, 32 years old, of an enlarged heart after having spent the entire day before at a bar drinking with his wife's uncle. Tragic.

 

[Levitate]

I think DeAngelo probably suffers greatly from "the eye test" and people who expect an offensive defenseman to put up a ton of points and be completely useless if they do not.

I'm not as high on him as Blue Blooded is but it's no surprise his underlying stats are quite good in some ways, they pretty much always have been.

IMO he's a guy you need to give a chance and also allow yourself to look at the things he's doing on the ice (transition, zone entries, shot metrics) and make an impartial decision about whether that's means he's overall contributing positively to the team. He might not put up ridiculous points in the NHL but I think people continue to undersell the value of a guy who can move the puck up the ice and create scoring chances even if he's not an A+ defender in his own zone