Confirmed with Link: Tom Wilson re-signs 2years 2 mil AAV

[twabby]

If he had any sort of presence as a deterrent then Brayden Schenn wouldn't have been running around like an idiot trying to injure our star players last year, for example. I'm on board with his between-the-whistles physicality having an impact (forcing defenders to make mistakes, for instance), but no one is afraid of Tom Wilson after the whistle. Deterrence is a myth in hockey in the year 2017.

Wilson's actual hockey qualities such as defense and contributing more offensively have improved lately and that should be his focus and the focus of any outside analysis. There's no need to rely on false claims of his enforcement qualities having a positive impact on the ice when there are easily quantifiable measures indicating his uptick in play.

 

[Langway]

Disagree here. Wilson creates chaos on the forecheck. You can see guys just coughing up the puck when they sense him nearby. And we really don't see nearly as many cheap shots on our stars as you might think while playing an obviously open style of hockey.

He isn't fighting like a meathead as much, yeah, but don't underestimate his presence.

I don't think his hitting and forechecking have been as significantly disruptive as in past seasons, though. He's even admitted that he's more often looking to have better stick position to regain the puck rather than just blow dudes up. I'm also not sure how we can attribute the absence of something to him alone. Big Bad Wilson having everyone quake in their boots? He's not that fearsome. His actual fighting ability isn't, like, Probert level or something.

All of the defensive play stuff, sure, that has value. He's not totally a potential-based player but much of his offensive game remains pretty raw.

 

[artilector]

Not directed at you but....

I think its fresh the people say this. Its one thing if he was making $4 or $5 mil per and playing on the 4th line. He's making $2 million....I'd wager the average 4th liner comes in at $1.5 give or take. Its not as if it is some awful deal.

And as 4th liners go he is one of the best at what he does NOW and has potential still as you say.

I'm saying it only in the context of the Caps being in position where every penny might count AND they have to choose between losing some people they like. If that wasn't the case, Wilson's name wouldn't even come up. But it's not far-fetched to imagine a scenario where they really want to keep Oshie (against your recommendations, haha) and are 1M+ short with no more fat to prune...

 

[g00n]

If he had any sort of presence as a deterrent then Brayden Schenn wouldn't have been running around like an idiot trying to injure our star players last year, for example. I'm on board with his between-the-whistles physicality having an impact (forcing defenders to make mistakes, for instance), but no one is afraid of Tom Wilson after the whistle. Deterrence is a myth in hockey in the year 2017.

Wilson's actual hockey qualities such as defense and contributing more offensively have improved lately and that should be his focus and the focus of any outside analysis. There's no need to rely on false claims of his enforcement qualities having a positive impact on the ice when there are easily quantifiable measures indicating his uptick in play.

This is ridiculous logic. Some players on other teams are just going to be *******s no matter what. Wilson is a guy who makes them pay if they don't behave. Scaring the **** out of other players or keeping guys from acting up more than they do is not something that can be quantified so you'll never accept it, I'm sure.

I bet I can cite as many or more examples of exceptions to accepted fancy stat beliefs as you can players in the league who have run around on the Caps. If outliers disprove an entire theory then there's nothing left.

 

[g00n]

I don't think his hitting and forechecking have been as significantly disruptive as in past seasons, though. He's even admitted that he's more often looking to have better stick position to regain the puck rather than just blow dudes up. I'm also not sure how we can attribute the absence of something to him alone. Big Bad Wilson having everyone quake in their boots? He's not that fearsome. His actual fighting ability isn't, like, Probert level or something.

All of the defensive play stuff, sure, that has value. He's not totally a potential-based player but much of his offensive game remains pretty raw.

He still has a reputation as someone who will get in your face and hit you hard when you're not expecting it. Sometimes that's more effective than the threat of a fight. That's the kind of thing you benefit from after years of doing the dirty work. Did Brashear have to fight as much later in his career? Do most "enforcers"? They don't have to, they choose to.

 

[txpd]

Wilson's physical play and enforcer regulatory role are both very overstated here. They haven't been factors much in the regular season at all. We'll see if they are in the playoffs but this is not a team is wusses. They don't need Tom Wilson backing other teams down..

Chicken and egg. They don't need to back other teams down because Wilson is an established force.

Again, I recount the conversation on hockey central last week where they lamented that Dubinsky could beat and harass Crosby game after game and there is nobody on the Pens roster that does anything about it. They said that kind of player in today's game is really hard to find(Caps have one). That Crosby "was resigned to having to fight thru it himself."

 

[g00n]

Chicken and egg. They don't need to back other teams down because Wilson is an established force.

Again, I recount the conversation on hockey central last week where they lamented that Dubinsky could beat and harass Crosby game after game and there is nobody on the Pens roster that does anything about it. They said that kind of player in today's game is really hard to find(Caps have one). That Crosby "was resigned to having to fight thru it himself."

Exactly. And Wilson doesn't even have to do it all by himself anymore. Guys like Niskanen, Oshie, Williams, Orlov, Ovechkin, Orpik and to some degree Winnik and Beagle will all make things uncomfortable for the opposition with little cheap shots or "hey don't forget I'm here" stuff all game long.

I think the entire Caps team now has a reputation as a squad that can beat you a lot of different ways. About the only thing left is running Holtby..... When that happens, what do you think those guys will be doing? And along those lines, why isn't it happening more?

 

[artilector]

Intimidation is a nice bonus, but looking at recent Cup winners that did ok without it, I wouldn't want the Caps to pay (extra) for it, either.

Just like leadership is a potentially nice quality, but that shouldn't be the reason to give fat contracts to grinders.

Pay for actual hockey talent. If a guy also seems to have nice intangibles, great.

 

[twabby]

This is ridiculous logic. Some players on other teams are just going to be *******s no matter what. Wilson is a guy who makes them pay if they don't behave. Scaring the **** out of other players or keeping guys from acting up more than they do is not something that can be quantified so you'll never accept it, I'm sure.

I bet I can cite as many or more examples of exceptions to accepted fancy stat beliefs as you can players in the league who have run around on the Caps. If outliers disprove an entire theory then there's nothing left.

No he doesn't. The logic you're using is similar to me saying this rock on my desk is scaring away tigers because there sure as hell aren't any tigers nearby.

There's a reason enforcers are near extinct in the NHL and it's because their enforcement qualities aren't seen as valuable compared to other qualities that help teams win. Wilson has improved tangibly in other areas of his game and isn't doing nearly as much "deterring", and he should be commended for that because his overall value now is higher than it has ever been.

I agree with you, ****heads are going to be ****heads no matter what. Corey Perry and Brad Marchand have made a career out of this and there's really nothing you can do about it. Punching a few faces isn't going to make anyone think twice about the next slewfoot.

 

[Langway]

Chicken and egg. They don't need to back other teams down because Wilson is an established force.

Again, I recount the conversation on hockey central last week where they lamented that Dubinsky could beat and harass Crosby game after game and there is nobody on the Pens roster that does anything about it. They said that kind of player in today's game is really hard to find(Caps have one). That Crosby "was resigned to having to fight thru it himself."

Clearly they just don't play Tom Sestito enough.

I'm a bigger believer in team toughness than some mythical difference maker deterrent. If even your atypical fighter teammate isn't willing to stand up to Dubinsky then something is wrong there. You don't need crazy, you just need some heart and pushback at least to set boundaries.

 

[g00n]

No he doesn't. The logic you're using is similar to me saying this rock on my desk is scaring away tigers because there sure as hell aren't any tigers nearby.

There's a reason enforcers are near extinct in the NHL and it's because their enforcement qualities aren't seen as valuable compared to other qualities that help teams win. Wilson has improved tangibly in other areas of his game and isn't doing nearly as much "deterring", and he should be commended for that because his overall value now is higher than it has ever been.

I agree with you, ****heads are going to be ****heads no matter what. Corey Perry and Brad Marchand have made a career out of this and there's really nothing you can do about it. Punching a few faces isn't going to make anyone think twice about the next slewfoot.

No, it's not a tiger-rock bit of logic because that's completely absurd and has no realistic, reasonable chance of being true. It's just more difficult to prove even a reasonable negative. Ultimately it's your opinion, not fact. And given that every team in the league has Tom Wilson in their heads and would love to have a guy like him on the roster, I'd say it's not a very defensible opinion.

Wilson is not an "enforcer" alone. He's a young power forward with excellent forecheck and PK skills. As pure "enforcers" vanish from the game (guys who can barely play and who just protect players with staged fights etc) that means there are more pests like Schenn and more hybrid types like Wilson filling the role. THOSE are guys who now represent the intimidation and physical retaliation battleground and they do it in ways that are less obvious than dropping the gloves in blowouts at center ice, or to start a game, etc. And if they're good they pick their battles and/or wind up drawing penalties from the other neo-goons and pests, as Wilson has shown he can do.

Let's put it this way...if guy like Kuznetsov started hitting more and fighting and generally scaring the **** out of the opposition like a Tom Wilson do you think that ADDS or REMOVES value?

 

[BobRouse]

I'm saying it only in the context of the Caps being in position where every penny might count AND they have to choose between losing some people they like. If that wasn't the case, Wilson's name wouldn't even come up. But it's not far-fetched to imagine a scenario where they really want to keep Oshie (against your recommendations, haha) and are 1M+ short with no more fat to prune...

So basically save 500k on Wilson's position so we can go out and throw a terrible contract to a 30 year old forward?? Glad you aren't the GM of the Caps...

There are other areas we can save money on (and a LOT more of it!!). Wilson hardly makes above the average 4th liner so this is not a good argument.

Especially not to resign a player who's contract will become terrible in a year or two.


RE: Deterent

Wilson CERTAINLY is one and he is a pest to boot. And did someone suggest his forechecking has not been visible this year???

Just last week he crushed a Kings dman on a shift the directly led to an Oshie goal.

A few days later he hit Green 3 times on a shift that led to Carlson's GWG against Detroit.

But a Wilson-hater is going to be a Wilson-hater and they will conjure creative excuses to justify their position. But one thing the Wilson-hater knows deep down inside and that terrifies them.....GMBM and the Caps LOVE Wilson!!

You guys can turn blue in the face holding your breath but Wilson is going nowhere anytime soon. And the driving force will be GMBM who is the best GM the Caps have had ever.

 

[twabby]

No, it's not a tiger-rock bit of logic because that's completely absurd and has no realistic, reasonable chance of being true. It's just more difficult to prove even a reasonable negative. Ultimately it's your opinion, not fact. And given that every team in the league has Tom Wilson in their heads and would love to have a guy like him on the roster, I'd say it's not a very defensible opinion.

Wilson is not an "enforcer" alone. He's a young power forward with excellent forecheck and PK skills. As pure "enforcers" vanish from the game (guys who can barely play and who just protect players with staged fights etc) that means there are more pests like Schenn and more hybrid types like Wilson filling the role. THOSE are guys who now represent the intimidation and physical retaliation battleground and they do it in ways that are less obvious than dropping the gloves in blowouts at center ice, or to start a game, etc. And if they're good they pick their battles and/or wind up drawing penalties from the other neo-goons and pests, as Wilson has shown he can do.

Let's put it this way...if guy like Kuznetsov started hitting more and fighting and generally scaring the **** out of the opposition like a Tom Wilson do you think that ADDS or REMOVES value?

The Islanders are maybe the only team that has Wilson in their heads. The Penguins and Rangers certainly haven't cared when Wilson was on the ice as they beat the Capitals in the playoffs.

I'm not calling him a pure enforcer, I'm saying his enforcing qualities probably aren't very valuable because players are still going to make dirty plays no matter what. If you think he has prevented players from playing dirtier against Washington than they otherwise would have without Wilson on the roster then I guess it's reasonable for us to just agree to disagree. I'd rather focus on the improvements we have seen offensively in the past two months and his improvements defensively over the past two years when assessing his value because you can rely on verifiable facts for those judgments. And the facts are he has improved.

 

[artilector]

So basically save 500k on Wilson's position so we can go out and throw a terrible contract to a 30 year old forward?? Glad you aren't the GM of the Caps...

There are other areas we can save money on (and a LOT more of it!!). Wilson hardly makes above the average 4th liner so this is not a good argument.

Especially not to resign a player who's contract will become terrible in a year or two.


RE: Deterent

Wilson CERTAINLY is one and he is a pest to boot. And did someone suggest his forechecking has not been visible this year???

Just last week he crushed a Kings dman on a shift the directly led to an Oshie goal.

A few days later he hit Green 3 times on a shift that led to Carlson's GWG against Detroit.

But a Wilson-hater is going to be a Wilson-hater and they will conjure creative excuses to justify their position. But one thing the Wilson-hater knows deep down inside and that terrifies them.....GMBM and the Caps LOVE Wilson!!

You guys can turn blue in the face holding your breath but Wilson is going nowhere anytime soon. And the driving force will be GMBM who is the best GM the Caps have had ever.

Wtf, you are just reading what you want to read.

I am not advocating re-signing Oshie, I'm saying it's possible that BMac makes it a priority -- since we can't actually read his thoughts. Also, I like Wilson a lot, and though I stop just short of putting him into sacred cow category, I am perfectly happy with the Caps keeping him.

But thanks for the clarification, I understand at what level to reply to you now

 

[txpd]

Just last week he crushed a Kings dman on a shift the directly led to an Oshie goal..

Connolly goal. The two on zero with the Wilson assist

 

[txpd]

 

[BobRouse]

Wtf, you are just reading what you want to read.

I am not advocating re-signing Oshie, I'm saying it's possible that BMac makes it a priority -- since we can't actually read his thoughts. Also, I like Wilson a lot, and though I stop just short of putting him into sacred cow category, I am perfectly happy with the Caps keeping him.

But thanks for the clarification, I understand at what level to reply to you now

Speak for yourself.

In fact I just got off the phone with him. He laughed at your post.

Wilson is young, fast and incrementally improving his game. He fills a role on the team and fills that role as good or better than any player in the league at that position. He makes $2 million and is cost controlled as he will be an RFA next his contract is up.

The "save money" argument is flimsy is all I'm saying.

 

[Langway]

The average fourth liner makes closer to $1M than $2M. I'll grant Wilson is better than average but in a cap crunch scenario, particularly if at the cost of scoring depth, it's not an easy expenditure to rationalize. For the sake of argument let's say Connolly catches fire in the playoffs and nets eight goals. Do you really protect Wilson over him? Team-first glue guys are important to success but scoring depth would seem to be the better investment (esp. given their history in not having enough of it). Whether it's Alzner or Beagle or Wilson it's going to be difficult to pay a premium to retain those types of glue guys in the coming years. It would be easier if they had unquestionable cheap young talent or equally promising team-first grinder types coming through the system. They're not without promise in the pipeline but not to the point where a seamless transition is realistic.

Wilson's pass to Kuznetsov in the Boston game was even better. My point is his forechecking is more subtle and less forceful than it used to be. It's not always evidently a strategic decision to do so...aside from perhaps not drawing the ire of the refs. He does deserve credit for becoming a less targeted but still effective player. I don't dislike the player--few do IMO--it's more about potential roster dynamics and him continuing to develop. He has value, here and around the league, and it at least has to be one of many considerations in how best to reload. There are very few players that are unquestionably core and Wilson hasn't yet elevated himself to that level. He may be highly regarded internally but that shouldn't create a bias hindering critical thinking in how best to put a roster together.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

No sense worrying over that last forward spot between Wilson and Connolly, it's going to Oshie.

 

[BobRouse]

This has me thinking now....what exactly is the average cap hit of a 4th liner league wide?

I'd protect Wilson over Connolly personally since I KNOW we'd lose Wilson as he was a prized GMGM draft pick (and that carries value to a GM as its "his guy")

GMGM won't select Beagle. He won't select Eller. They are older and have 1 year til they hit UFA.

If Wilson is available GMGM will indeed pick him over Grubauer (IMO)

If Connolly is available and Wilson is protected McPhee will pick Grubauer. If there is one thing Caps fans know about McPhee it is that he is loyal to "his" guys. We've all seen it time and time again. He keeps the powder dry, rewards loyal players when he shouldn't, and rarely trades his nuts.


Trust me. I'm very smart

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Twabby would dance a jig...if Willy was taken. One step closer that dream PA Parenteau acquisition!


Wilson over Grubby as McPhee's pick. I could see that. Does GMGM really care About getting a good goalie this year? I think not. I think his priorities are players that can be considered core to LV starting out and guys with value that he can trade for picks and prospects. It comes down to that IMO.

 

[trick9]

Twabby would dance a jig...if Willy was taken. One step closer that dream PA Parenteau acquisition!


Wilson over Grubby as McPhee's pick. I could see that. Does GMGM really care About getting a good goalie this year? I think not. I think his priorities are players that can be considered core to LV starting out and guys with value that he can trade for picks and prospects. It comes down to that IMO.

Yes he does.

The thing is though that there are lots of good goalies in the league. On top of that there are lots of young goalies who have starting goalie potential. Vegas is not going to have tough time finding good goalies. It's going to be easier than finding enough good forwards and D's.

As for Langway pointing out if Connolly gets hot and has monster rest of the season/Playoffs, then even if you are protecting him, there is a very small chance that he'd ever play in the Capitals jersey again with his contract status.

 

[BobRouse]

Yes he does.

The thing is though that there are lots of good goalies in the league. On top of that there are lots of young goalies who have starting goalie potential. Vegas is not going to have tough time finding good goalies. It's going to be easier than finding enough good forwards and D's.

As for Langway pointing out if Connolly gets hot and has monster rest of the season/Playoffs, then even if you are protecting him, there is a very small chance that he'd ever play in the Capitals jersey again with his contract status.

Which expansion available goalies do you believe would McPhee take ahead of Grubauer? Curious to what you think.

I went over (on a cursory level) the potential ones available and it wasn't that pretty outside of maybe Ranta

 

[skyo]

I'd consider that long and hard, and that's coming from someone that really doesn't want to trade Wilson because he's very good defensive player, good shot-blocker and trading him makes Capitals a much softer team.

That being said, Hansen would add more of a scoring threat, he's more physical than your average player, and a definite upgrade over Wilson for duration of his contract.

Yeah I don't want to give up Hansen, but the Canucks are rebuilding and want to get younger, and imo just need to get some new young blood to move on from our old core slowly but surely.

Interesting thought, but not easy to see a fit.

For this playoff run, I don't think he'd displace any of our RWs, including Wilson, who probably fits the 4th line identity better.

For short term -- next couple of seasons, I can see some scenarios for the Caps to be interested in a player like Hansen as a budget top-9 RW, but the roster picture for next year is very unclear, I doubt they'd consider something like this as a preventative measure for (possibly) losing Wilson. Because, worst case, if the Caps do indeed lose Wilson instead of Grubauer, then they should still be able to trade Grubauer down the line for somebody like Hansen -- or an equivalent asset. So I don't think there's a particular motivation to expedite this.

Maybe something to consider down the line, after the dust settles.

I hear ya and that makes sense, I just thought since you guys have a lot of good pieces becoming UFA's, the Caps might want to win now with all these superb players still there.

Granted a Hansen swap could easily be done after the expansion draft dust has settled as well, but maybe both GM's if they still have wilson/hansen respectively at that point maybe they just keep both players, but imho it would be a good swap for both parties involved, Hansen would help any Cup team pretty good due to his versatility to play on any line and be a soldier, he's not a 'deterrent' by any means but he won't hesitate to fight back at least, definitely not a pushover.

 

[Langway]

As for Langway pointing out if Connolly gets hot and has monster rest of the season/Playoffs, then even if you are protecting him, there is a very small chance that he'd ever play in the Capitals jersey again with his contract status.

They'd need to know his demands and their plans for him prior to sorting out who they're protecting. Realistically he could cash in via arb. but you'd hope there'd be some loyalty in him turning his career around here and finally getting into a groove at this level. They could also rationalize keeping him at a raise if they plan on putting him in the top six.

Similarly, a case can certainly be made for keeping Wilson at his salary if they also plan on putting him on a scoring-line. Win a Cup and there's very little pressure in not seeing how big a jump certain players can make if they give them reason to believe they're capable of it in the playoffs.

I'd be surprised if GMGM went for Wilson over Grubauer. There's liking a player and there's letting it compromise decision-making. Grubauer is the better asset at the very least and likely helps make them competitive sooner. Vegas won't fast-track to longer-term detriment but they are going to want to ice a competitive product next season. Goaltending obviously is a key part of that, particularly since they probably won't be a high-scoring team.