Pre-Game Talk: Time to talk Playoffs

[123offtheglass]

For a minute, lets' assume (hope) that we make the Semi-Finals, and win the Canada Cup. The Semi-Finals will be 1 vs 4, and 2 vs 3, in regular season points. Right now, if all division leaders are the winners of their conference, we are #4. That is Vegas, Carolina, Washington, Toronto. Now, I'm not suggesting that everything will go to the top regular season point getter, or that even the regular season will end the way it is. My point is that Vegas looks pretty scary. Our goal should be to try and ensure ourselves, a 2/3 seeding, to avoid Vegas in that round. I think we match up pretty good against Tampa, Florida, Washington, Pittsburgh... Carolina and Islanders could be challenges... Colorado we can match with... Vegas will be tough... let's avoid Vegas as much as possible, and fight for a top three seed in the Semi's.

Anything can happen but Vegas or Colorado likely getting the top seed with a high point percentage, Tampa likely making it through (point percentage is catchable), a good chance a Metro team with a lower point percentage makes it through (or Washington whose point % is also catchable).

Getting home ice advantage as a possible #2 seed looks attainable if they go on a good run, or even #3 avoiding a team like Vegas 3rd round. They'll likely have to face a monster team like Vegas or Tampa at some point if they happen to go all the way, but anyway of making the route easier will help. Seeding definitely matters; if they happen to face Tampa 3rd round home ice advantage could be really helpful.

 

[Macallan18]

Time to plan the parade!!

 

[BrannigansLaw]

I hope we a) make the semi-finals and b) if we do get that far or further, we play the Capitals. They just started letting fans back into Capital One Arena and I'd be willing to drop a lot of bucks to see one of those games with my dad who's also a Leafs fan.

 

[Notsince67]

I think it's a toss up with any of those teams.

That being said, it's bad karma to look that far ahead. There's a path for any of the Canadian teams to beat the leafs.

Sure but it didn't stop you from crapping all over the leafs early in the season.
Canadian Division (Canada Cup) Part II

 

[zeke]

Vegas looks terrifying.

Quick name their centers.

 

[zeke]

Going into this season even with the Canadian division, I thought winning 1 round would be a success. Now the expectations have adjusted a bit. Leafs need to win 2 for this season to be a success. 1 is not enough.

Eh even just beating this division won't be enough.

Losing to an elite contender in round 3 won't be any more of an accomplishment than losing to an elite contender in round 1 was the first 3yrs.

 

[zeke]

Sure but it didn't stop you from crapping all over the leafs early in the season.
Canadian Division (Canada Cup) Part II

Lol

 

[Auston 316]

Sure but it didn't stop you from crapping all over the leafs early in the season.
Canadian Division (Canada Cup) Part II

Hahaha I love a good hot takedown.

 

[GrizzGreen]

Man, I really hope you’re right.
I’ve dreaded this time of year for too long.

As a Leafs and Padres fan... its hard to have faith... but I'm ready to be hurt again

 

[Leafsfan74]

So we've officially qualified. Lots of things to talk about - lines, opponents, whatever.

Looking like Habs First round and Oilers second round. Tons of good story lines there.

So post about any facet of the Leafs in these coming playoffs that you want.

I'll start with a quick snapshot of the Leafs and the other imo elite contenders so far this year:

View attachment 427679


Colorado looks scary....but with big question marks in net and they're slumping hard at the moment.

TBay is the champ - but they haven't been dominant this year. Though of course Kuch is due back at some point.

Canes and Knights are red hot and play quality hockey - buy both seem to be being buoyed by surprisingly great goaltending that I'm not sure they can count on going forward.

Leafs have been dang good - but let down by the goaltending so far.

As soon as Vegas signed Pietrangelo I placed them as the favourite pre-season. I still do. #1 D men don't just fall from the sky. Eat 25 tough minutes a game against the best opposition and still have a positive corsi. It's why I promoted the idea that he be signed here, even if it meant moving out another big contract.

Regardless, Dubas took a wise, "busy" path that has worked. A team that desperately needed to focus on D (still do, especially come playoffs), their compete level and general mentality.

For this team to succeed, it has to defense focused, receive competent goaltending and be more willing to sacrifice for the victory than in the past. You don't often get to put together a team that has been fairly consistent on top of their division as they have this year. Teams change from year to year, thus, take advantage of it.

Two weeks ago I would have written Joe off as a guy you roll in and out, his pride has shown he is getting into playoff mode and thus should be starting. I would want all of the pickups in the lineup, including Nash and a healthy Bogosian. What players they take out/rotate in is anyones guess, but you have to find room for players you picked up to get over the playoff hump. This is how this Leafs team is best able to succeed in the playoffs in my mind without question.

They shouldn't be thinking about just winning a round or two either. This can be their year. I place them behind Vegas, Colorado and Florida. I place them ahead of Tampa and Carolina (though that Canes team has played some tight D).

 

[willmma]

Our lines in draft picks

Foligno 1st rd	Matthews 1st OA	Marner 1st rd
Gally 1st rd	Tavares 1st OA	Nylander 1st rd
Hyman 5th rd	Nash 1st rd	Mikheyev Undrafted
Thornton 1st OA	Kerfoot 5th rd	Spezza 1st rd

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

9 1st rd draft picks, three are 1st overall. That's amazing.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I hope we a) make the semi-finals and b) if we do get that far or further, we play the Capitals. They just started letting fans back into Capital One Arena and I'd be willing to drop a lot of bucks to see one of those games with my dad who's also a Leafs fan.

LeBrun said yesterday on OD, it’s possible Canadian winner has to move to States if Canada doesn’t open up for final 4.
Final 4 , will be 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3, going by points within your division.

 

[willmma]

Quick name their centers.

 

[X66]

Leafs have to get their obviously, but the Leafs actually pose a different test/look for the other top American teams.

Pretty much none of them have had to go against a center depth to the caliber or Matthews/Tavares this year, that's a tough match-up for many teams, and even though the Leafs didn't get the results in the Boston/Blue Jackets series, you could easily see that they were the better team in both series largely due to that combo.

NOW, they actually have to do something with it.

And the way that the Leafs Offence is assembled and plays, they can crack elite defensive teams shell, just look at the Bruins/Jackets series...again. Goaltending was enough to wash out those great performances by our team, hope that doesn't happen again.

 

[Twine Tickler]

I like our chances in any series in the North. Of course, anything can happen. But different from years past, I am not expecting any poor performances from this group. I fully expect losses along the way, but it won't be for a lack of effort IMO. A large amount of our losses have come despite us being the more dominant team. Obviously the cup is the main goal, but I'd be happy with just getting out of R1. I'm not sure this group will ever recover from another R1 disappointment. This team is like a 25 year old with their v-card at this point. I really don't care how it gets done, just get find a way to get that first notch. After that, the sky is the limit for this group. Gaining that confidence from an R1 victory will go such a long way in the immediate and distant future. So as far as I am concerned, I am only asking for a single series win. Everything else will be gravy for me.

 

[willmma]

Sure but it didn't stop you from crapping all over the leafs early in the season.
Canadian Division (Canada Cup) Part II

Wow, I didn't know Sid was on our board.

 

[zeke]

Exactly!

Not so terrifying.

 

[Stephen]

A lot will ride on momentum. The Leafs seem to be a team that can string together a lot of wins and also string together a lot of losses so the tune up they’ve had in the past three games is what you want to see approaching the playoffs.

Another factor I am expecting is if they win in the first round the momentum and confidence of getting the monkey off their backs will make winning the second round relatively easier. This will be magnified playing a beatable Canadian field.

In terms of factors you don’t totally feel comfortable with is goaltending. It’s holding up for now but nothing beats the playoff acid test where reputations are made and also ruined. At this point just play the hot hand and be on a tight rotation.

 

[Vaive50]

Vegas looks terrifying.

That's okay, let Vegas win the Presidents Trophy. Just ask Boston how that worked out for them last season or better yet, ask Tampa how that worked out for them 2 seasons ago.

The thing that scares me about these Leafs is that they have had 2 horrible runs, the first one was 1-6-0 and the second was 0-3-2. In both, our goaltending sucked (first Anderson, then Rittich/Campbell) but when the goaltending sucks, our highly paid superstars should be able to outscore the opposition. I hope things are back to great with Campbell for good now and that with both Foligno and Hyman playing, along with Jumbo's line lighting the lamp, and now that we've become a "Dirty" team, we will not have an extended losing streak in the Playoffs.

 

[Clark4Ever]

I think it will be more difficult than expected as the playoffs are a brand new season, but I agree that anything less than advancing to the Conference Finals will be a disappointment.

 

[GardinerTheForward]

I believe the Leafs need 12 for the Oil and 5 for the Jets
2020-21 NHL Magic Numbers and Clinching Scenarios | National Hockey League

If the tie breaker is head to head, then we would need 11 points. Not sure if it is ROW though or head to head

 

[seanlinden]

Leafs have to get their obviously, but the Leafs actually pose a different test/look for the other top American teams.

Pretty much none of them have had to go against a center depth to the caliber or Matthews/Tavares this year, that's a tough match-up for many teams, and even though the Leafs didn't get the results in the Boston/Blue Jackets series, you could easily see that they were the better team in both series largely due to that combo.

NOW, they actually have to do something with it.

And the way that the Leafs Offence is assembled and plays, they can crack elite defensive teams shell, just look at the Bruins/Jackets series...again. Goaltending was enough to wash out those great performances by our team, hope that doesn't happen again.

Depending on if you consider Draisaitl a centre, Toronto has one the best 1-2 punches in the league in the middle. Crosby-Malkin, MacKinnon-Kadri, Point-Stamkos, Matthews-Tavares, I think you're probably splitting hairs.

The questions that will determine how far they can go will be:

- Who will be the 3rd line? and how will we handle the major drop-off in talent that it's likely to contain?
- Will they be able to commit to the defensive, counter-attack approach that has made them so successful this year?
- How will all those weapons perform when the going gets tough, games get physical, and get forced into dumping & chasing?

Personally, come playoff time, I'd almost want to see them figure out how to make an effective 3rd line at both ends of the ice. Maybe it's Hyman-Nash-Mikheyev. Maybe it's Galchenyuk-Kerfoot-Simmonds... maybe Galchenyuk-Kerfoot-Hyman; put Foligno with Tavares & Nylander, and a guy like Mikheyev with M&M.

In an ideal world, M&M need a guy to forecheck with speed... probably Hyman. JT & Willy need a guy to forecheck with a bit of size, probably Foligno. That 3rd line needs somebody with bit of offensive creativity, but all 3 guys better be the "work your ### off, hem them in the zone types".

 

[Vaive50]

If the tie breaker is head to head, then we would need 11 points. Not sure if it is ROW though or head to head

The tie breaker is Regulation Wins (RW) before ROW. If it was ROW, we only need 11 cause we have more ROW than them but Edmonton has 2 more RW's than we do so that's why we need 12.

 

[Twine Tickler]

The Leafs seem to be a team that can string together a lot of wins and also string together a lot of losses

In fairness to this group, They have been in complete control of the division from day 1 really. I'd imagine its hard to get up to play CGY and OTT for the 7th time when you have a 6+ pt lead on any other team. I hear what you're saying for sure though. Losing streaks are concerning because that is essentially a sweep in the playoffs. but if we look at the 2 losing stretches in our schedule:

losing streak 1: 7 games (1-6-0)

2021-03-04 - Maple Leafs 1 - Canucks 3
64.92% xGF
68.42% HDCF

2021-03-06 - Maple Leafs 2, Canucks 4
53.14% xGF
42.11% HDCF

2021-03-09 - Jets 4, Maple Leafs 3
63.19% xGF
80.00% HDCF

2021-03-13 - Jets 5, Maple Leafs 2
44.08% xGF
33.33% HDCF

2021-03-14 - Maple Leafs 3, Senators 4
51.34% xGF
48.65% HDCF

2021-03-19 - Flames 4, Maple Leafs 3
69.80% xGF
77.78% HDCF
--------------------------------------------------
Losing streak 2: 5 Games (0-3-2)

2021-04-12 - Maple Leafs 2, Canadiens 4
39.36% xGF
44.83% HDCF

2021-04-13 - Flames 3, Maple Leafs 2
51.17% xGF
55.00% HDCF

2021-04-15 - Jets 5, Maple Leafs 2
56.97% xGF
50.00% HDCF

2021-04-18 - Maple Leafs 2, Canucks 3
73.04% xGF
80.77% HDCF

2021-04-20 - Maple Leafs 3, Canucks 6
42.86% xGF
56.52% HDCF

Of the 11 total losses in those 2 losing streaks, we commanded the lion share of xGF and HDCF in 6/11 games. All while likely not being as "into" the game as the opponent. Toronto has been playing meaningless hockey since the end of February. Not to mention 7/11 games came against teams currently out of the playoff picture. Further cementing the idea that the Leafs just didn't get up for the meaningless games. The Leafs are very clearly the class of the Division, they just need to take what is rightfully theirs. I have faith

 

[hoglund]

Quick name their centers.

I couldn't name 1, but their record looks scary.