Blue Jays Discussion: Thus Endth the 2016 Season..

[TF97]

My only concern with pillar is that either his body breaks down or he has to change his approach a bit to prevent that. I think he's a little bit too young to worry about it at this point. He's also a little too young to assume he'll never become a better hitter.

Pillar has never really showed much power at any point in his professional career so I doubt he'll magically start popping 20 homers. But hey, stranger things have happened. As far as him changing his approach, it's nearly all but guaranteed that he won't be doing that anytime soon. Just listen to/read his interviews from earlier in the year when he was in the battle for the lead off spot.

 

[King Mapes]

With EE and Bautista both possibly leaving Toronto, I thought it would be fun to reminisce about the 2 trades that got them here. I remember when JP traded for Bautista, that was seen just a swap of 2 really underwhelming players. Bautista actually played a lot for us in 2009 but for some reason I don't remember much from that season. He was just some depth guy on a pretty bad team.

When we got EE, he was just a throw in in the Rolen trade. Discarded by Cinci. Oh man, he was so terrible at 3rd. I remember the E5 and E-crap days.

How do you remember those 2 trades? And their early days with Toronto?

I remember one announcer used to correct people. It's Ba-ow-tista and did it non stop and I was like who gives a **** he's a nobody. IIRC he went on a tear in September in 2009 and everyone said "pressure is off". Then he hit 54 out of nowheres and it was a fluke/steroids. In 2011 I passed on Bautista 4 times in a highly competitive league (12 teams) and many people thought he flukes into it and I narrowly lost this league and just kept thinking "why the **** did I think 54 homeruns was a fluke?"

I don't remember much on EE when he came here.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Pillar has never really showed much power at any point in his professional career so I doubt he'll magically start popping 20 homers. But hey, stranger things have happened. As far as him changing his approach, it's nearly all but guaranteed that he won't be doing that anytime soon. Just listen to/read his interviews from earlier in the year when he was in the battle for the lead off spot.

Honestly as long as he gets on base, I doubt many people really care how many homers he gets. Put him at the bottom of the lineup and if he gets on base for the big hitters at the top, then he's golden. He can steal and he can do some damage on the base paths with even a little bit of wiggle room. If he gets 10-15 homers on top of that, then that's just gravy.

What's a good OBP? .350? He's at the low .300's right now, so he's got some improvement to do if that's the case. If he gets ~.400 in the slugging department, which is just slightly above his career average and what he got last year, that would get him to .750 OPS. That's pretty good for a center fielder you more like in the lineup for his defensive ability than his offensive ability. The same would go for someone like Pompe, Carrera and Upton if they were to be the other outfielders.

Imagine if you had Pillar and Pompey on base consistently when you get to the top of the lineup for someone like Travis (who has a high .BAA) and Donaldson (who is, well, Donaldson). Screw power, you'd be scoring runs a crap ton of runs just off of weak singles if you wanted.

 

[AllDay28]

kind of happy we lost. it would of been heart breaking to get completely dismantled by the Cubs

 

[metafour]

Honestly as long as he gets on base, I doubt many people really care how many homers he gets. Put him at the bottom of the lineup and if he gets on base for the big hitters at the top, then he's golden. He can steal and he can do some damage on the base paths with even a little bit of wiggle room. If he gets 10-15 homers on top of that, then that's just gravy.

What's a good OBP? .350? He's at the low .300's right now, so he's got some improvement to do if that's the case. If he gets ~.400 in the slugging department, which is just slightly above his career average and what he got last year, that would get him to .750 OPS. That's pretty good for a center fielder you more like in the lineup for his defensive ability than his offensive ability. The same would go for someone like Pompe, Carrera and Upton if they were to be the other outfielders.

Imagine if you had Pillar and Pompey on base consistently when you get to the top of the lineup for someone like Travis (who has a high .BAA) and Donaldson (who is, well, Donaldson). Screw power, you'd be scoring runs a crap ton of runs just off of weak singles if you wanted.

Pillar is what you see as a hitter. He couldn't draw walks or work counts in the minor leagues either. He is a free swinger with a bad approach; which is why he'll never be a consistently good hitter. Expecting him to change is foolish.

 

[metafour]

It's possible to like and appreciate Pillar but know that his contributions are exaggerated at the same time. Only the White Sox, Houston and Oakland had worse offensive contribution from the CF position in the 2016 AL. It's an area that could be upgraded.

I mean, we've got stats in baseball that tell you exactly what a player's "contributions" are, so how on earth could they be over or under exaggerated? Pillar has been worth 4.3 and 3.2 wins the past two seasons, putting him as the 9th most valuable CF in baseball over that period. I guess it could be upgraded if you got one of the 8 guys above him...but why?

 

[BertCorbeau]

kind of happy we lost. it would of been heart breaking to get completely dismantled by the Cubs

It would be a very "Toronto" thing to end the Cubbies curse

Then again they're playing Cleveland .... What a year for that city if the Indians can win though.

 

[Lightsol]

It would be a very "Toronto" thing to end the Cubbies curse

Then again they're playing Cleveland .... What a year for that city if the Indians can win though.

They won't. I actually said back when the Blue Jays were playing Texas that I thought that it would be Cubs vs. Indians, and the reason I thought that was because the MLB wants to make the story this year "Cubs break 100+ year curse!". Why the Indians? Because they're seriously beat up and shorthanded, and they needed some absolutely insane help from the umps just to get past Boston. They're the weak link in the AL this year. You watch, this is where the myth of Andrew Miller is destroyed, because the umps won't gift him that gigantic strike zone he's been getting this playoff now that the Cubs are playing them.

 

[BertCorbeau]

They won't. I actually said back when the Blue Jays were playing Texas that I thought that it would be Cubs vs. Indians, and the reason I thought that was because the MLB wants to make the story this year "Cubs break 100+ year curse!". Why the Indians? Because they're seriously beat up and shorthanded, and they needed some absolutely insane help from the umps just to get past Boston. They're the weak link in the AL this year. You watch, this is where the myth of Andrew Miller is destroyed, because the umps won't gift him that gigantic strike zone he's been getting this playoff now that the Cubs are playing them.

Now that's a plausible tin foil hat theory if I've ever read one.

But I actually believe it

 

[JS19]

Pillar is what you see as a hitter. He couldn't draw walks or work counts in the minor leagues either. He is a free swinger with a bad approach; which is why he'll never be a consistently good hitter. Expecting him to change is foolish.

Why is it foolish to expect him to change his approach? Jose Bautista changed his approach, and many other ball players before him changed their approach and got better. Just because Pillar is what we all see, and just because he's been consistent in that regard ever since minor leagues, doesn't mean he can't change. Pillar's biggest issue is something that I think is fixable, which is lack of patience at the plate and swinging for bad pitches. Now he doesn't need to be like Bautista and transform into a 40-50 home run player, but he could be a much stronger small ball hitter.

 

[metafour]

You watch, this is where the myth of Andrew Miller is destroyed, because the umps won't gift him that gigantic strike zone he's been getting this playoff now that the Cubs are playing them.

The myth of Andrew Miller? The man posted 14.89 K/9 and 1.09 BB/9 this past season; on the way to earning nearly 3 WAR...as a reliever. There is no "myth".

What gigantic strike zone are you talking about? Here is the strikezone plot of every one of his appearances against the Jays:


Game 1:

Conclusion: One favourable strike call, one strike that was actually called a ball, and another called ball right at the bottom of the zone that could have been called a strike.


Game 2:

Conclusion: One favourable strike call, and a second strike call that maybe should have been called a ball but was right there on the edge.


Game 3:

Conclusion: A whopping THREE pitches were called as balls in this game which were blatant strikes. He did not receive a single beneficial call in this outing.


Game 5:

Conclusion: One favourable strike call, one strike that was actually called a ball

 

[metafour]

Why is it foolish to expect him to change his approach? Jose Bautista changed his approach, and many other ball players before him changed their approach and got better. Just because Pillar is what we all see, and just because he's been consistent in that regard ever since minor leagues, doesn't mean he can't change.

Wrong. Bautista already had an advanced eye at the plate, but his swing problems allowed pitchers to bust him inside so his "eye" never materialized to its full potential as he couldn't handle pitches that were strikes. Even when he sucked, he was still a ~10-11% walk rate batter. Once he retooled his swing and unlocked that freakish pull power, it allowed him to get much more selective as pitchers were forced to try and pitch around his hot spots whereas in the past even if they were down in the count they could challenge him inside and he'd get himself out even on average pitches.

Kevin Pillar is a completely different story. He is a pure free swinger. You are talking about a guy with a career 4.2% walk rate. He has no patience at the plate, and he never had it. Guys like that don't just wake up one morning and start drawing walks.

 

[TF97]

Honestly as long as he gets on base, I doubt many people really care how many homers he gets. Put him at the bottom of the lineup and if he gets on base for the big hitters at the top, then he's golden. He can steal and he can do some damage on the base paths with even a little bit of wiggle room. If he gets 10-15 homers on top of that, then that's just gravy.

What's a good OBP? .350? He's at the low .300's right now, so he's got some improvement to do if that's the case. If he gets ~.400 in the slugging department, which is just slightly above his career average and what he got last year, that would get him to .750 OPS. That's pretty good for a center fielder you more like in the lineup for his defensive ability than his offensive ability. The same would go for someone like Pompe, Carrera and Upton if they were to be the other outfielders.

Imagine if you had Pillar and Pompey on base consistently when you get to the top of the lineup for someone like Travis (who has a high .BAA) and Donaldson (who is, well, Donaldson). Screw power, you'd be scoring runs a crap ton of runs just off of weak singles if you wanted.

The problem with Pillar is that he simply is an impatient hitter with a bad approach and not much pop. So in order to become a better hitter, he'd either have to add some pop or start taking walks... neither of them seem very likely, but his power developing is the most realistic. Unless Kevin starts batting like .310, I doubt we will ever see him post a .350 OBP.

 

[Le Cobra]

Let's go shopping this off-season. I would love to get Dexter Fowler, Mike Napoli and Carlos Beltran if we can't re-sign EE and let Bats, Saunders go

Fowler (LF)
Travis (2B)
Donaldson (3B)
Beltran (DH)
Tulo (SS)
Napoli (1B)
Martin (C)
Upton (RF)
Pillar (CF)

I agree with you except I am leaning more towards Josh Reddick, Mike Napoli, and Brandon Moss

 

[Lightsol]

The myth of Andrew Miller? The man posted 14.89 K/9 and 1.09 BB/9 this past season; on the way to earning nearly 3 WAR...as a reliever. There is no "myth".

What gigantic strike zone are you talking about? Here is the strikezone plot of every one of his appearances against the Jays:


Game 1:

Conclusion: One favourable strike call, one strike that was actually called a ball, and another called ball right at the bottom of the zone that could have been called a strike.


Game 2:

Conclusion: One favourable strike call, and a second strike call that maybe should have been called a ball but was right there on the edge.


Game 3:

Conclusion: A whopping THREE pitches were called as balls in this game which were blatant strikes. He did not receive a single beneficial call in this outing.


Game 5:

Conclusion: One favourable strike call, one strike that was actually called a ball

You're ****ing kidding, right? I was watching the MLB's strike zone indicator for most of games 2, 3 and 4. The man NEVER, and I mean NEVER, consistently hits the strike zone with his slider. It's ALWAYS down and away (or down and inside if you're batting left). And he always gets the strike calls for it anyway. Has since the Yankees signed him. He had one good season as a reliever, parlayed that into a big contract with the Yankees, and since then he's gotten the benefit of being "the Yankees' best reliever" without actually having to throw strikes like a normal reliever. It's been pissing me off watching him for 3 years now.

 

[Le Cobra]

The Yankees are notorious for getting calls in their favour. No surprise . The Jays have the most calls against them. It comes with the territory literally

 

[Le Cobra]

Josh Reddick should replace Michael Saunders. Letting go of both Bautista and EE will give us more cap space to sign other hitters with high OBP and batting averages as well as left handed hitters and switch hitters

 

[Discoverer]

You're ****ing kidding, right? I was watching the MLB's strike zone indicator for most of games 2, 3 and 4. The man NEVER, and I mean NEVER, consistently hits the strike zone with his slider. It's ALWAYS down and away (or down and inside if you're batting left). And he always gets the strike calls for it anyway. Has since the Yankees signed him. He had one good season as a reliever, parlayed that into a big contract with the Yankees, and since then he's gotten the benefit of being "the Yankees' best reliever" without actually having to throw strikes like a normal reliever. It's been pissing me off watching him for 3 years now.

Those low outside sliders are strikes because A) people swing at them, or B) they cross the plate in the zone and get caught outside because they have such a ridiculous amount of break.

Also, now he's not the best reliever on the Yankees anymore, he's the best reliever in baseball.

This is one of the weirdest conspiracy theories I've ever seen.

 

[Habsawce]

It would be a very "Toronto" thing to end the Cubbies curse

Then again they're playing Cleveland .... What a year for that city if the Indians can win though.

I know right. I still can't believe the Lake Erie Monsters won the Calder Cup!

 

[Swervin81]

The Yankees are notorious for getting calls in their favour. No surprise . The Jays have the most calls against them. It comes with the territory literally

The Jays led the league this year in favorable strike calls to pitchers.

http://www.umptracker.com:3838/dail...d Fairchild: Blue Jays vs. Rangers&date=17080

Go to the dropdown under game and select "Chad Fairchild: Blue Jays vs Rangers" Look at the bottom right box where it counts season totals. The Jays had +202 favorable calls throught the regular season and playoffs, which ranks #1 as you can see.

 

[go_leafs_go02]

It would have been weird for the Jays to end up playing the Cubs in the WS. Kind of a win-win scenario for me. Jays win, awesome! Cubs win, great, they finally did it after so long.

It easily would have been Canada vs. America that series though. I don't know many people (outside of Cleveland now) that wouldn't want to witness a Cubs Championship.

 

[dirk41]

You're ****ing kidding, right? I was watching the MLB's strike zone indicator for most of games 2, 3 and 4. The man NEVER, and I mean NEVER, consistently hits the strike zone with his slider. It's ALWAYS down and away (or down and inside if you're batting left).

1. Opinion
2. Facts
3. Double down on opinion.