Proposal: THREE WAY TRADE - New Jersey, Ottawa, Calgary

[TBF1972]

We both know that means me.

Yes Patrick

 

[Neil Patrick Harris]

If the word is true that Brady Tkachuk wants out of Ottawa...

Literally who is saying this?

 

[MartyOwns]

Literally who is saying this?

haven't you been following OP's 8 other threads on the subject? tkachuk's girlfriend is apparently building a house in nj with her own two hands, and reportedly the house has an underground tunnel that leads to the prudential center. she's like the harriet tubman of north american sports.

 

[Bileur]

Not at all. The likelihood of that player drafted 10th overall becoming equal or comparable value to Brady Tkachuk within a couple years is probably about a 55-65% chance. To make up for that ~40% difference, that's why Seamus Casey is involved in the proposal, as well as the other assets.

In this three team deal, it is essentially Ottawa receiving the 10th overall from NJ and flipping it to Calgary for Andersson and Mangiapane.

You listed 24 names picked 9, 10, 11 plus another 12 cherry picks. You’re saying there’s a 55-65% chance of being equal or comparable to Brady.

Which are the 19-24 players among your 36 names who « equal or comparable » to Brady? Show your work.

 

[dgibb10]

Makes me think of what a Hughes - Tkachuk trade would look like. Forget about probability. I'm thinking just from a hockey trade/value perspective. I think Ottawa would have to add, but how much? Hughes is the better player signed to the better contract for longer term but Brady is just so unique a player and fantastic in his own right. Great scorer, tough as nails, draws penalties, work and drive second to none. Would #7 get it done? a little less? a little more?

ONCE AGAIN JUST FOR THE MENTAL EXERCISE OF DETERMINING THEIR PROPORTIONATE VALUE. NOT PROPOSING A TRADE OR DISCUSSING WHETHER EITHER TEAM WOULD DO IT.

From a purely mathematical perspective.

Let's assume the cap goes up by the following (87.7, 92,97,102,107,112)

Brady Tkachuk if he hit UFA today, I would offer 12 million dollars for 4 years (term remaining).

Jack Hughes if he hit UFA today, I would offer 16 million AAV for 6 years (term remaining).

597.7 mill in total cap will be available over those 6 years, so would be 16.06% of the cap for Jack overall.
378.7 mill in total cap will be available over those 4 years, so would be 12.7% of the cap for Tkachuk overall.

3.36% is equal to 2.8 mill in today's cap, so the gap checks out.

Based on that math, Jack is at about 48 mill in surplus value, while Tkachuk is at about 15.2 mill.

Even if you move Jack down to 15% of the cap (15 mill), and Tkachuk up to 14% (13.55 mill), and I'd say the gap is WAY bigger than 835k in today's money.

That would still be 42 mill for Jack, and 21.4 mill for Tkachuk. Just an absolutely massive gap in value no matter how you slice it.

Or from a simpler perspective. Add 7th overall to pay for the gap in value over the next 4 years. And then you have to pay for 2 more years of prime Jack Hughes when the cap is like 110 million and he still makes 8 mill. (The same equivalent cost as a 6 mill contract today).

 

[MakeCgyGreatAgain]

Very bad for Calgary. Like ridiculously bad. I wouldn’t trade Andersson alone for the whole package.

 

[dgibb10]

You listed 24 names picked 9, 10, 11 plus another 12 cherry picks. You’re saying there’s a 55-65% chance of being equal or comparable to Brady.

Which are the 19-24 players among your 36 names who « equal or comparable » to Brady? Show your work.

Equal or comparable VALUE.

A drafted player gets 3 years at 950k (up to 2 mill with type A bonuses), and up to 4 mill with type B, but any player achieving type B bonuses (all star, top 10 norris voting, stuff like that) is providing more value than Tkachuk.

Then they have 4 years of RFA control.

For example, let's use just an example off the top of my head, Dawson Mercer.

Mercer on a 3 year bridge deal will likely cost sub 4 mill. (and then at the end could probably be traded for a 1st+ or extended long term)

Let's say he produces at a 20 goal 50 point level. He will make 16 million dollars including bonuses over that time, and provide 124 goals and 280 points.

Brady Tkachuk over the next 4 years will cost 33 million dollars. at his approximate paces he'll provide about 130 goals and about 300 points.


a 5 million dollar player making 1 mill is just as valuable as an 12 mill player making 8 mill

 

[My3Sons]

Very bad for Calgary. Like ridiculously bad. I wouldn’t trade Andersson alone for the whole package.

Very bad for NJ I wouldn’t trade a second for the whole package from Calgary. I mean anyone can say that stuff. Doesn’t make it true in real life.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Closed for reasons.