Thoughts on Dorion's developmental path

MatchesMalone

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Aug 29, 2010
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We don't see the full picture, but the guy might be the worst talent evaluator the pro level in quite some time.

Care to elaborate? Perhaps we just need to define what we mean by "talent evaluation" but the way I see it, talent evaluation, or at least talent projection at the amateur level, is his greatest strength. He was an amateur scout for a decade and then a director of amateur scouting.

I keep pointing out that a lot of people misunderstand where he went wrong with the initial Duchene trade. Duchene was on pace for the best year of his career before being traded away last year. He finally hit his prime and looked phenomenal for long stretches. Turris rapidly declined after the trade. No issues with talent evaluation there.

The issue was with evaluating his own team, because he believed they were a contender and not about to go into a tank where trading away the first round pick would be such a disaster.

Difficult to say what exactly account for this. Sure, evaluating the talent of his own players is part of it, but there's a lot more going on. One problem was not understanding/believing the analytics experts who were screaming that the previous year's run was an anomaly and unrepeatable.

The other problem would have to do with a lack of hockey IQ, of understanding the Xs and Os, which is very different from evaluating talent. He failed to comprehend or appreciate the genius and uniqueness of Boucher's system - just how much it was able to mask the roster's weaknesses and allow it to overperform - and he also failed to account for the fact that after that run, every coach in the league was on notice and was devising strategies to counter Boucher's system, and if Boucher's system was neutralized, then the mediocre roster would be exposed for what it was.
 

swiftwin

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Jul 26, 2005
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AGM is probably an ideal role for Dorion to be honest. They typically handle the prospects and stay out of the sight of the camera.

I think that's also why teams have started adding a PoHO in recent years, to do the same thing but for the professional scouting and player management side... Allowing the GM to focus on being a good PR person and whatnot.

Plus three heads can be better than two when egos are involved.

I feel like you have the job descriptions wrong and upside down.

IMO:
A POHO should deal with PR stuff (both public relations, and player relations), and deal with the owner. Ideally, this would be a former player, or someone with a long history in the league that commands respect. The kind of person who can smooth over friction between owners, management, players and fans. (see: Shanahan. Bryan Murray would have been good in that role too)

A GM should be more of the nuts and bolts guy. Slightly more behind the scenes, but not completely behind the scenes. Should have good player and prospect assessment, team vision, trade negotiations, contract negotiations etc.

An AGM supports the GM is areas where he may be weak. So if the GM comes from more of a business background, the AGM could be a former scout. Or if the GM has a strong scouting background, the AGM could be a lawyer who can do contract negotiations.


I feel like Dorion and MacTavish are perfect for their roles. We just desperately need a POHO to take a big load off of Dorion so he can just focus on what he does best.

I like to draw parallels between Dorion and Dubas. Both had similar paths to becoming GM. Both are young-ish, and have a non-player scouting background. Both are a bit smug. But one has a full support team around him, and the other doesn't.
 
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Tnuoc Alucard

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Tnuoc Alucard

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So you're saying the team should bring that Chiarelli guy in for an interview?

No, you're saying that.

Dorion's job is not in jeporady.

He's in what, year two of a re-build ..... even EM will give him another year or two, before expecting some real solid results in the teams performance on the ice.
 

GrantLemons

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No, you're saying that.

Dorion's job is not in jeporady.

He's in what, year two of a re-build ..... even EM will give him another year or two, before expecting some real solid results in the teams performance on the ice.

Year 2 of rebuild preceded by 2 years of PR and asset management shitshow.

I guess he's even then.
 

FunkySeeFunkyDoo

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Feb 3, 2009
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No, you're saying that.

Dorion's job is not in jeporady.

He's in what, year two of a re-build ..... even EM will give him another year or two, before expecting some real solid results in the teams performance on the ice.

Dorion's job security is not tied to the teams performance. The fact that he got a 3 year extension in the middle of the disastrous 2017/2018 season is evidence of that.

Wrt the original question of whether Dorion would have been better to have more time in a lower role before being promoted to GM... almost certainly this is true.

BUT, Dorion's major problems as a GM have more to do with his core weaknesses (intelligence, self confidence, communication skills) ... so I doubt there is any development path where the guy could actually be good at this job.
 

RAFI BOMB

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It isn't clear that Dorion even has the potential to be a very good GM. In his two seasons in a management role as a co-assistant GM the Senators farm team was near the bottom of the league. Somehow he got promoted and in his three seasons as a general manager the Senators have been in the bottom of the league twice. Any argument about hypothetical development paths only complicates matters. If someone devises a proper development path for executives that leads them to becoming highly competent general managers then it opens up the question of whether it was the potential of the executive realized or the strength of the development program. In a simplified black or white interpretation if it was the potential of the executive then it stands to reason that picking the right executives to develop is more important than their development path. If it is the strength of the development path then it stands to reason that it may not matter which executive is picked to develop because the development path can theoretically develop any executive into a competent GM. Obviously a black and white interpretation is too simple and it is a combination of the two but I provided it here to reflect on the concepts in this thread. Did Dorion have the potential to be a good GM but he simply wasn't given the right development path? Would a theoretically correct development path be capable of transforming other executives into competent general managers? If the development path is understood and established what makes Dorion a superior candidate to other executives as a prospect to be developed? Are there better executive prospects available and would they be easier to develop, more likely to develop or have higher upside if developed than Dorion?
 

BonHoonLayneCornell

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Same path as Murray's, under Melnyk. No money!

Saying that, I think it will be an exciting year, but will lack experienced players for the Playoffs
Yup.

Murray wasn't the greatest GM, but his tenure was mostly defined by holes in the lineup because of the lack of finances. We were always a player or two away that we couldn't afford to bring in it seemed.
 
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MatchesMalone

Formerly Innocent Bystander
Aug 29, 2010
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It isn't clear that Dorion even has the potential to be a very good GM. In his two seasons in a management role as a co-assistant GM the Senators farm team was near the bottom of the league. Somehow he got promoted and in his three seasons as a general manager the Senators have been in the bottom of the league twice. Any argument about hypothetical development paths only complicates matters. If someone devises a proper development path for executives that leads them to becoming highly competent general managers then it opens up the question of whether it was the potential of the executive realized or the strength of the development program. In a simplified black or white interpretation if it was the potential of the executive then it stands to reason that picking the right executives to develop is more important than their development path. If it is the strength of the development path then it stands to reason that it may not matter which executive is picked to develop because the development path can theoretically develop any executive into a competent GM. Obviously a black and white interpretation is too simple and it is a combination of the two but I provided it here to reflect on the concepts in this thread. Did Dorion have the potential to be a good GM but he simply wasn't given the right development path? Would a theoretically correct development path be capable of transforming other executives into competent general managers? If the development path is understood and established what makes Dorion a superior candidate to other executives as a prospect to be developed? Are there better executive prospects available and would they be easier to develop, more likely to develop or have higher upside if developed than Dorion?

Appreciate the input. Some paragraph breaks would have been nice. But valuable questions to consider.

Basically I started this thread for two reasons, a. One specific to Dorion and the Sens - to open up a healthier, more thoughtful dialogue around Dorion. I have my opinions, but I wanted to hear from others, but usually all I see is hardcore haters with nothing constructive to say, and occasionally someone defending against those.

b. And more generally, I've been thinking about this different level of team assessment, and I was wondering if others shared my interest. When it comes to players, everyone has their opinions and evaluations, and there are all kinds of stats available, but there is very little detailed assessment of hockey ops from fans or media, and very few statistics readily available. This is why I started this directory, Sens Scouting Staff .

I'm trying to think of other ways of evaluating hockey ops. A localized, sortable record of completed trades and signings would be good.

Also the idea of an executive's track record developing hockey ops personnel. For instance, Bryan Murray had Bob Lowes and Greg Royce get positions as amateur scouting directors with other teams, and Tim Murray as GM with Buffalo, just going back a few years.

Of course then this question of developing vs. recruiting/selecting comes to the forefront again, and both will play a role. Just like with player prospects, there are two separate aspects to it - drafting and developing. Different players have very different potential when they are drafted/signed, and require very different development paths.
 

BankStreetParade

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Jan 22, 2013
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The only thing I can evaluate Dorion on, with certainty, is his media presence. He fails in that regard. Very poor in front of a camera, in interviews, quotes, etc.

As for every other aspect of his job, I honestly don't have the faintest f***ing clue how I could ever give him a fair evaluation. He has the most difficult mandate of any GM in the league, with the smallest front office staff, and the smallest player budget.

Where do I even begin with how to properly assess this guy when he's basically never made a trade that wasn't financially motivated?
 
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Gin and tonic

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Aug 29, 2019
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Appreciate the input. Some paragraph breaks would have been nice. But valuable questions to consider.

Basically I started this thread for two reasons, a. One specific to Dorion and the Sens - to open up a healthier, more thoughtful dialogue around Dorion. I have my opinions, but I wanted to hear from others, but usually all I see is hardcore haters with nothing constructive to say, and occasionally someone defending against those.

b. And more generally, I've been thinking about this different level of team assessment, and I was wondering if others shared my interest. When it comes to players, everyone has their opinions and evaluations, and there are all kinds of stats available, but there is very little detailed assessment of hockey ops from fans or media, and very few statistics readily available. This is why I started this directory, Sens Scouting Staff .

I'm trying to think of other ways of evaluating hockey ops. A localized, sortable record of completed trades and signings would be good.

Also the idea of an executive's track record developing hockey ops personnel. For instance, Bryan Murray had Bob Lowes and Greg Royce get positions as amateur scouting directors with other teams, and Tim Murray as GM with Buffalo, just going back a few years.

Of course then this question of developing vs. recruiting/selecting comes to the forefront again, and both will play a role. Just like with player prospects, there are two separate aspects to it - drafting and developing. Different players have very different potential when they are drafted/signed, and require very different development paths.


An intelligent conversation on the theories of sports management..Not on this site. You don't play Chopin at your local pub on a Friday night, right?

An owner is free to choose whomever he/she wishes as an employee. It is the beauty of the process If you or I were worth a few hundred million dollars, we could buy a hockey team and hire whomever we wish. Melnyk chose him. If you feel that Dorion either did not have sufficient experience, or as others feel; either he is incompetent or it is not his fault but "circumstances around him", still leaves you at the same spot..I write, because I had a piece of hide torn off of me last week because I went down your path.

We the fans have one vote in this matter, it is with our wallet at the ticket office or our eyeballs in front of whatever media source we consume the Sens product. Reason, ration or a better method/way gets you no where. Should you and a million experts, produce the near perfect theory and formula for hiring a GM, it will not impact Melnyk or others. Melnyk is not a politician that has to run for office every 4 years. Politicians, rarely listen to us! What are you leaving for an owner? No matter how bad a person may look in some outfit, it is still his/her choice to wear it and all we can do is turn our head. My own thread was foolish..it fed the haters, antagonists, etc. I made their day!!!! Look at line one of this paragraph again and vent that way. It is much more productive. It will not make Melnyk listen an more, but you can take the satisfaction that you are not contributing to the mess and that your dollar is not being wasted.

White papers on sports management should be published in literature for academia and discussed else where.
 

Cosmix

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Jul 24, 2011
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No, you're saying that.

Dorion's job is not in jeporady.

He's in what, year two of a re-build ..... even EM will give him another year or two, before expecting some real solid results in the teams performance on the ice.

I thought Dorion's contract lasted for this season plus one more.

I suspect Dorion will last to the end of his current contract UNLESS the team gets into the playoffs within that time period, in which case he will get an extension.
 

JD1

Registered User
Sep 12, 2005
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Well...looking at the White and Chabot signings, I'd say Dorion has a plan and he is e executing it. Both are good team deals. Both lock up core talent thru their prime years.

I do think the re build was financially motivated although not purely related to the players jettisoned. I think the financial motivation is at least equally tied to the notion I can lock up the young guys or the old guys. He appears to have gambled on the young guys although I think he clearly wanted one of Duchene or Stone to stick around.

As things stand today, I'd rather have PD signing deals for young guys than his counterpart down the 401

There's also been a shit ton of talk in here about a lack of respect for PD amongst his league peers. There may well have been for all I know. However, I'd say respect for him has certainly risen as of earlier this morning.
 
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BonHoonLayneCornell

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Oct 16, 2006
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I think he's learning from some of his mistakes as these last two signings prove.

Keep the momentum going and lock up the right guys this time, with your stars being the priority over support/role players. So far so good.

I think TC did the Sens a big favor by not pushing the bonus issue like they did in TO, otherwise this may not have been possible.
 

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