Thoughts on Dorion's developmental path

[MatchesMalone]

I've been thinking about the paths teams take in developing hockey ops talent. Not so long ago the Sens had Lowes and Royce poached as chief scouts. Tim Murray as GM. That was all under Murray.

I look at hockey ops talent basically the same way you'd look at player talent. You might have a player, for instance, who would be an elite third liner on a good team, a pretty good second liner, but shouldn't be on a first line except on a bad team. Dorion was excellent as a head scout, probably would have been fine as DPP or maybe assistant GM, but is in way over his head as head GM.

I wonder if maybe Dorion could have been a batter GM, but was mishandled. Hypothesis: just as prospects can be ruined by rushing them, the same goes for executives.

Looking at some of the best in the league right now, the last Cup winner, Doug Armstrong was an AGM for eight years (way back with Dallas in the 90s) before getting his first GM job.

Ron Francis was DPP/AGM for eight years before being named head GM in Carolina. Yzerman was only VP Hockey Operations four years before getting his job in Tampa, but I guess he's a special case. Also he was GM for Hockey Canada during that span.

Jeff Gorton, like Dorion, never played at a high level and came from a scouting background. He was an assistant for twelve years before getting the job for the Rangers.

Kyle Dubas was an AGM for four years, but perhaps as importantly, he was a head GM in the OHL for three years, overseeing all aspects of his team. And let's not forget the management dream team he has had around him in Toronto. Likewise with Doug Wilson, who only had four years as DPP before taking his first head GM job, but after he took over, both of Lombardi's longtime veteran AGMs stayed on for years while he learned the ropes.

Dorion had four years as a DPP, and barely three as AGM, and then his assistant was the former video coach...

Different hockey ops personnel have different optimal development paths. Some take longer than others. I suspect that for respected longtime NHL players like Doug Wilson, Yzerman and Francis, who know the league inside out and have those connections and reputations, it makes sense they'd be ready sooner.

Jeff Gorton is a better comparable for Dorion. He spent twelve years as an AGM. Dorion had three.

I suppose it was seven years total spent between DPP and AGM for Dorion, but it depends what he was doing as DPP. If it was still mostly just overseeing scouting, and not learning all of the different aspects of management, then that's not doing much to prepare him for a GM role. The fact that Tim Murray was AGM and that there was no director of amateur scouting during that span strongly suggests to me that Dorion was still doing more or less the same job (DAS) by a different title.

I don't mean to make excuses for Dorion, but after three years as AGM, Melnyk decided he would be a good choice, instead of going out and hiring an experienced veteran? Or at least a veteran AGM to support him, instead of a video coach...

One thing I remember talking about a while ago was that Dorion's chiefest and most damaging mistake was in not trusting his analytics people (or not having very good ones). Zinanejad is and was an analytics poster boy. But they traded him for Boucher's guy. Boucher took them to the semifinals a and the next year Dorion decided to risk trading the first, despite all the numbers saying the last year was decidedly unrepeatable.

Dorion was letting himself get walked all over by the coach and the GM. Whenever the hammer inevitably falls on Dorion, assuming Melnyk can't afford the most notable names available, I'd like to see the Sens moneyball it on an analytics prodigy like Dubas and Chayka.

Once he is done in Ottawa, I doubt Dorion will ever get another head GM position in the league. Reputation, image, respect among peers, these sorts of things are so important for a GM, dealing with both contract and trade negotiations, and Dorion is tainted now. But I'm sure some smart team will make him a DAS or DPP, and they'll be a more successful organization for it.

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[JungleBeat]

Melnyk decided to go for the cheapest and dumbest option available. Randy Lee was an athletic trainer iirc and MacTavish was a lawyer.

 

[Sentron5000]

I've been thinking about the paths teams take in developing hockey ops talent. Not so long ago the Sens had Lowes and Royce poached as chief scouts. Tim Murray as GM. That was all under Murray.

I look at hockey ops talent basically the same way you'd look at player talent. You might have a player, for instance, who would be an elite third liner on a good team, a pretty good second liner, but shouldn't be on a first line except on a bad team. Dorion was excellent as a head scout, probably would have been fine as DPP or maybe assistant GM, but is in way over his head as head GM.

I wonder if maybe Dorion could have been a batter GM, but was mishandled. Hypothesis: just as prospects can be ruined by rushing them, the same goes for executives.

Looking at some of the best in the league right now, the last Cup winner, Doug Armstrong was an AGM for eight years (way back with Dallas in the 90s) before getting his first GM job.

Ron Francis was DPP/AGM for eight years before being named head GM in Carolina. Yzerman was only VP Hockey Operations four years before getting his job in Tampa, but I guess he's a special case. Also he was GM for Hockey Canada during that span.

Jeff Gorton, like Dorion, never played at a high level and came from a scouting background. He was an assistant for twelve years before getting the job for the Rangers.

Kyle Dubas was an AGM for four years, but perhaps as importantly, he was a head GM in the OHL for three years, overseeing all aspects of his team. And let's not forget the management dream team he has had around him in Toronto. Likewise with Doug Wilson, who only had four years as DPP before taking his first head GM job, but after he took over, both of Lombardi's longtime veteran AGMs stayed on for years while he learned the ropes.

Dorion had four years as a DPP, and barely three as AGM, and then his assistant was the former video coach...

Different hockey ops personnel have different optimal development paths. Some take longer than others. I suspect that for respected longtime NHL players like Doug Wilson, Yzerman and Francis, who know the league inside out and have those connections and reputations, it makes sense they'd be ready sooner.

Jeff Gorton is a better comparable for Dorion. He spent twelve years as an AGM. Dorion had three.

I suppose it was seven years total spent between DPP and AGM for Dorion, but it depends what he was doing as DPP. If it was still mostly just overseeing scouting, and not learning all of the different aspects of management, then that's not doing much to prepare him for a GM role. The fact that Tim Murray was AGM and that there was no director of amateur scouting during that span strongly suggests to me that Dorion was still doing more or less the same job (DAS) by a different title.

I don't mean to make excuses for Dorion, but after three years as AGM, Melnyk decided he would be a good choice, instead of going out and hiring an experienced veteran? Or at least a veteran AGM to support him, instead of a video coach...

One thing I remember talking about a while ago was that Dorion's chiefest and most damaging mistake was in not trusting his analytics people (or not having very good ones). Zinanejad is and was an analytics poster boy. But they traded him for Boucher's guy. Boucher took them to the semifinals a and the next year Dorion decided to risk trading the first, despite all the numbers saying the last year was decidedly unrepeatable.

Dorion was letting himself get walked all over by the coach and the GM. Whenever the hammer inevitably falls on Dorion, assuming Melnyk can't afford the most notable names available, I'd like to see the Sens moneyball it on an analytics prodigy like Dubas and Chayka.

Once he is done in Ottawa, I doubt Dorion will ever get another head GM position in the league. Reputation, image, respect among peers, these sorts of things are so important for a GM, dealing with both contract and trade negotiations, and Dorion is tainted now. But I'm sure some smart team will make him a DAS or DPP, and they'll be a more successful organization for it.

Not that I'm defending Dorion since he's made a ton of mistakes, but what have Dubas and Chayka done to be worthy of emulation?

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Not that I'm defending Dorion since he's made a ton of mistakes, but what have Dubas and Chayka done to be worthy of emulation?

This will all be known in less than four years. For now... none are proven master GMs

 

[senators101]

PD has been given the worst of all situations to be a GM. Over the past few years, he's been allotted no budget for players or staff and every trade he's had to make has been financial in nature. NO staff and a bunch of organizational mess and having to sell off all of his stars is too messy a situation for one person. An experienced GM would have struggled here given the exact same situation, the only difference is that an experienced GM would just look better doing it because PD is awful in front of a camera.

He's a great scout. He knows the importance of drafting. Nobody with a professional scouting background would trade draft picks for $$.. his hand has been forced, so it's hard to blame him for these types of deals.

I'm absolutely not a fan of his. He won't be given another GM job and yeah, he was rushed. I'd prefer a more experienced GM with some organizational backing. I'd also be curious to see how PD could have operated with full budget and a normal staff though.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Not that I'm defending Dorion since he's made a ton of mistakes, but what have Dubas and Chayka done to be worthy of emulation?

Haha that bit about hiring an analytics expert was a bit tongue-in-cheek. Just because we can't afford a more experienced NHL executive. I'm actually not sold on Chayka at all. I think a lot of his moves have been questionable, and I'm not convinced he can turn Arizona into a contender.

I do like Dubas though. He hasn't had time to prove much yet, but he's been a part of putting together what the Leafs have become over the past four years. Since taking over he traded for Muzzin with a year left on his contract for a very reasonable return. He made an excellent trade adding Barrie and Kerfoot for Kadri - using their strength at center to bolster the defense. Their defense suddenly looks like it could be among the better groups in the league.

The Nylander contract is solid - kid is about to have a big year. The Tavares signing was bold and greatly improved the team in the short term. And both his drafts are looking good so far. Sandin in particular looks like a hell of a pick one year in.

 

[MatchesMalone]

This will all be known in less than four years.

Nobody said anything about master GMs. This is a vapid over-simplification. Brian Burke turned a very solid but unimposing Ducks team into a Cup winner in three years (one of which was the lockout). He was extremely bold and aggressive and it paid off.

Jim Rutherford came to a Pittsburgh team with the key pieces already in place but that had gone nowhere in the playoffs for years. He made some clutch moves and then they won two Cups within three years of him joining them.

I've already talked elsewhere about the incredible makeover Bryan Murray gave the Ducks in 2002-2003, taking them from a 69 point team to game seven of the Stanley Cup Final in the span of one season.

Those are extreme examples, but while obviously a larger sample size and time for draft picks to develop is necessary to make a proper assessment of of a GM, moves can be tentatively assessed at any time after they are made. To try to decide winners and losers immediately after a move is silly, but there are things that can be assessed immediately - accounting for team need, salary cap implications, analytic projections. It's not like there is no room for commentary and analysis whatsoever until years after a trade.

With Dubas' trades for Muzzin and Barrie for instance, we know that both are very good players according to analytics - better than the value they retrieved in these trades in my opinion. But what is not simply a matter of opinion - it is a fact that defense was Toronto's biggest need, and Dubas addressed the team's weakness by exploiting it's biggest surpluses - centers, and draft picks and prospects.

And I'll give my favorite example of how even draft picks can be assessed at any time, and the value of the asset can drastically change in a short time period. In the fourth round in 2012 the Sens drafted 2011-eligible Tim Boyle, who was going into his NCAA freshman season. He only got into 12 games and was minus four with two assists. By the next season he was out of the NCAA and played in the USPHL premier league. It was blatantly obvious by a year after the later - probably by midway through the season - that it was a horribly botched pick.

Going the other way, Drake Batherson was another old fourth round pick who had gone through the draft once, but by a year after being picked, he had dramatically improved his value, and was held in similar esteem to late first round picks from his draft class. Another year later and he's worth a high to mid first round pick.

 

[DrEasy]

Inexperience + no budget + micro-managed from above + bare-bones front office + no charisma

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I hope he had enough foresight to keep a journal of his day to day. It would probably make a great book.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Bryan Murray's parting joke after putting up with Melnyk's BS for years.

 

[BondraTime]

He was dealt a 7-2 off suit, that’s not his fault, and then made some terrible raises and calls in a 6 person hand, that was awful decision making on his part.

He was extremely good in his previous position.

He was thrust into a GM role that he’s not suited for, extremely early, given no help from below or above, and everything that could go wrong, went wrong.

He’s very bad at PR, as we have witnessed over the past year, and again has no help.

In normal circumstances, he likely would have been given a pink slip at the beginning of 2018, as nearly every other rebuild brings in new management, but he hit a 3 year deal for playing ball with Melnyk.

I don’t blame him, I’d do terrible things to keep a job as an NHL GM. He has no chance at getting another GM, or even AGM position after this run with the Sens is over, but he will always have a job in the NHL.

 

[benjiv1]

Eh,

I think Dorion has the hardest job in the league. Likely having his hand forced to make trades for financial reasons, or to manufacture attendance numbers.
Unable to really distinguish which "mistakes" are really his when you have Eugene barking orders.

Definitely agree that he needs more support, especially someone that can support him in dealing with Melnyk.

 

[benjiv1]

He was dealt a 7-2 off suit, and then made some terrible raises and calls in a 6 person hand.

He was extremely good in his previous position.

He was thrust into a GM role that he’s not suited for, extremely early, given no help from below or above, and everything that could go wrong, went wrong.

He’s very bad at PR, as we have witnessed over the past year, and again has no help.

In normal circumstances, he likely would have been given a pink slip at the beginning of 2018, as nearly every other rebuild brings in new management, but he hit a 3 year deal for playing ball with Melnyk.

I don’t blame him, I’d do terrible things to keep a job as an NHL GM. He has no chance at getting another GM, or even AGM position after this run with the Sens is over, but he will always have a job in the NHL.

I agree with most of this, but think he would get another crack at being an AGM is the rebuild goes remotely well.

 

[West Coast Eagles]

I agree with most of this, but think he would get another crack at being an AGM is the rebuild goes remotely well.

Absolutely. I'm sure the other owners and GMs know a hell of a lot more of what is happening behind the scenes than we do. If the constraints and meddling from Melnyk are as bad as we think they are, I think he will easily get a job with another team after here, not as a GM but AGM or Head Scout.

I think Dorion is a perfect example of the Peter principle.

 

[GrantLemons]

Any GM working for Eugene will have a difficult job, but Dorion absolutely buries himself because he can't speak in front of a mic. His PR is atrocious, and that's not excusable because it's part of the job description.

His developmental path wasn't compromised, he just isn't a natural at some aspects of the job. Dubas and Chayka were mentioned above, and while those guys haven't "proven anything" just listen to them speak to the media. They instantly command more respect than PD, and they are only like 30 years old.

PD has a decent eye for talent, but that's where it stops. He doesn't command the required respect to be the boss of a hockey ops department. He just isn't cut out to be "the guy". That's not a knock on him, it's just what it is. Some people are cut out for different roles. Pierre should be in a supporting role, not a lead one.

 

[SPF6ty9]

Dorion is like that person who gets granted one wish by a vindictive genie. He asks to be an NHL GM but gets the wish granted under the worst possible situation. This example also works in that someone who would have to wish to be an NHL GM would likely be under qualified and not very good at it.

Tough to make linear comparisons with other GMs and their experience though. Depends on responsibilities, who they work with, was the team succesful, and generally just how adept at the job they are. I'm sure you could put a lot of us from this forum as an Assistant GM for a decade and afterwards we'd still suck as GMs.

 

[2CHAINZ]

He was dealt a 7-2 off suit, that’s not his fault, and then made some terrible raises and calls in a 6 person hand, that was awful decision making on his part.

He was extremely good in his previous position.

He was thrust into a GM role that he’s not suited for, extremely early, given no help from below or above, and everything that could go wrong, went wrong.

He’s very bad at PR, as we have witnessed over the past year, and again has no help.

In normal circumstances, he likely would have been given a pink slip at the beginning of 2018, as nearly every other rebuild brings in new management, but he hit a 3 year deal for playing ball with Melnyk.

I don’t blame him, I’d do terrible things to keep a job as an NHL GM. He has no chance at getting another GM, or even AGM position after this run with the Sens is over, but he will always have a job in the NHL.

Dorion seems like the type of guy who would get dealt 72 off suit and think he can win anyway. Then when he looses heaps of money he blames it on running bad.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I was happy when he was hired and argued extensively he should get the job.

His trade and signing resume has completely changed my mind on him since.

I do have faith in his ability to identify young talent, its the pro level players he seems to have issues with making the right choices.

 

[Caeldan]

Absolutely. I'm sure the other owners and GMs know a hell of a lot more of what is happening behind the scenes than we do. If the constraints and meddling from Melnyk are as bad as we think they are, I think he will easily get a job with another team after here, not as a GM but AGM or Head Scout.

I think Dorion is a perfect example of the Peter principle.

AGM is probably an ideal role for Dorion to be honest. They typically handle the prospects and stay out of the sight of the camera.

I think that's also why teams have started adding a PoHO in recent years, to do the same thing but for the professional scouting and player management side... Allowing the GM to focus on being a good PR person and whatnot.

Plus three heads can be better than two when egos are involved.

 

[Hale The Villain]

He was thrust into a position he clearly wasn't ready for, and it's (predictably) worked out terribly for the organization.

We're talking about a guy who turned Karlsson, Stone, Zibanejad and Hoffman into Brannstrom, Norris, JBD, Tierney, Balcers, Boedker, DeMelo, Tychonick, 1st, 2nd - basically one potential impact player and a collection of secondary pieces.

Not to mention the disastrous Duchene trade and other head scratchers like Dahlen for Burrows and taking on one of the league's worst contracts in Zaitsev for no compensation from our biggest rival.

Melnyk obviously makes his job more difficult, but let's not pretend that Dorion is anything but completely incompetent and a liability to the team.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

He was thrust into a position he clearly wasn't ready for, and it's (predictably) worked out terribly for the organization.

We're talking about a guy who turned Karlsson, Stone, Zibanejad and Hoffman into Brannstrom, Norris, JBD, Tierney, Balcers, Boedker, DeMelo, Tychonick, 1st, 2nd - basically one potential impact player and a collection of secondary pieces.

Not to mention the disastrous Duchene trade and other head scratchers like Dahlen for Burrows and taking on one of the league's worst contracts in Zaitsev for no compensation from our biggest rival.

Melnyk obviously makes his job more difficult, but let's not pretend that Dorion is anything but completely incompetent and a liability to the team.

Agreed. He should not be the one driving this rebuild. I really do not like that he relies so heavily or acquiesces so easily to the head coach bringing in select players from the vast pool that are available. Its the easy way out for him. He should have learned his lesson with Boucher after Y1. I just think he is more of a pencil pusher, trying to play a part on the NHL stage, than a GM.

 

[MatchesMalone]

He was thrust into a position he clearly wasn't ready for, and it's (predictably) worked out terribly for the organization.

We're talking about a guy who turned Karlsson, Stone, Zibanejad and Hoffman into Brannstrom, Norris, JBD, Tierney, Balcers, Boedker, DeMelo, Tychonick, 1st, 2nd - basically one potential impact player and a collection of secondary pieces.

Not to mention the disastrous Duchene trade and other head scratchers like Dahlen for Burrows and taking on one of the league's worst contracts in Zaitsev for no compensation from our biggest rival.

Melnyk obviously makes his job more difficult, but let's not pretend that Dorion is anything but completely incompetent and a liability to the team.

To say that there is no chance (no potential) for JBD and Josh Norris to be impact players is silly. Also they got Gustavsson via Brassard via Zibanejad.

Don't see how Dahlén for Burrows is such a head-scratcher. Dahlén was way overhyped at the time. Burrows was a piece of the long playoff run. At this point Dahlén looks like probably not an NHL player.

Dorion may not be a good GM, but I don't see any reason to exaggerate how bad he is by ignoring and misrepresenting the facts.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Agreed. He should not be the one driving this rebuild. I really do not like that he relies so heavily or acquiesces so easily to the head coach bringing in select players from the vast pool that are available. Its the easy way out for him. He should have learned his lesson with Boucher after Y1. I just think he is more of a pencil pusher, trying to play a part on the NHL stage, than a GM.

Yeah he definitely let Boucher walk all over him. To me this was the most glaring way his inexperience became visible.

I feel like he's learned his lesson and is trying to assert himself and trust himself now, but confidence is a hell of a tough thing to manufacture. And he doesn't have an experienced support group in the front office to help him through it. Probably by Melnyk's design - makes him easy to control.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

I find it impossible to properly evaluate Dorion as a GM.

As a person the smugness is sometimes a bit much, the enthusiasm is appreciated and his willingness to tow the line is deplorable but understandable.

What we can say for sure is that Dorion is busy: he has next to no staff and he doesn't get enough recognition on that front. He hasn't been good but, he has not been put in a position to succeed. Melnyk set him up to fail.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

We don't see the full picture, but the guy might be the worst talent evaluator the pro level in quite some time.