Thoughts on Defense

[EL Bandito]

The Seth Jones trade really got me thinking about the Blues upcoming situation with Parayko next year. Its reasonable that he'll probably be looking for $7.5-8/yr and I'm not convinced he brings enough offense for that kind of deal longterm.

If the Blues had the ability to sign Dougie Hamilton to say a 7yr $8.5mil/yr deal they open up the ability to move Parayko in a similar deal to Jones and the destination that makes the most sense would be to his hometown Oilers. IMO, you go for a return of 2022 1st rnd, Evan Bouchard and a prospect like Raphael Lavoie.

Comparing to the Jones deal I think that return is in the ballpark as Boqvist > Bouchard, 12thov likely > oilers 1st '22 & Chi '22 1st is > Lavoie.

That would set their rhd for quite some time moving forward and Hamilton and Faulk would be great for Bouchard to learn from. 2 yrs left on his entry deal is a score as well for cap.

My 2nd thought with or without the above would be to move forward with Santini over Bortuzzo. For one, saves about $600k in cap space but also imo Santini is the better player and deserves a look at 3rd pair minutes/7th dman. He looked good from what I saw, especially for $750k the next 2 years. Thoughts?

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[ezcreepin]

The Seth Jones trade really got me thinking about the Blues upcoming situation with Parayko next year. Its reasonable that he'll probably be looking for $7.5-8/yr and I'm not convinced he brings enough offense for that kind of deal longterm.

If the Blues had the ability to sign Dougie Hamilton to say a 7yr $8.5mil/yr deal they open up the ability to move Parayko in a similar deal to Jones and the destination that makes the most sense would be to his hometown Oilers. IMO, you go for a return of 2022 1st rnd, Evan Bouchard and a prospect like Raphael Lavoie.

Comparing to the Jones deal I think that return is in the ballpark as Boqvist > Bouchard, 12thov likely > oilers 1st '22 & Chi '22 1st is > Lavoie.

That would set their rhd for quite some time moving forward and Hamilton and Faulk would be great for Bouchard to learn from. 2 yrs left on his entry deal is a score as well for cap.

My 2nd thought with or without the above would be to move forward with Santini over Bortuzzo. For one, saves about $600k in cap space but also imo Santini is the better player and deserves a look at 3rd pair minutes/7th dman. He looked good from what I saw, especially for $750k the next 2 years. Thoughts?

I don't think Parayko can command that amount money given his offense, not to mention the new problems with his back. I think he gets a modest raise in salary, but nothing close to 7.5-mil. The open market? Idk, some GMs are actually stupid, so someone might offer him like 9-mil because they need RD. If you can get Hamilton on a nice deal, then I think trading Parayko makes a lot of sense, but you can't bank on him signing here. Once you sign him though, people now know that you're looking to move someone out, so there is probably more coordination by GMs to get a lower price on someone like Parayko than they could right now. I think if this scenario happened, you'd ideally recoup defensive prospects since we have more than a few decent forwards in cupboard, but you just never know what Army thinks.

 

[EL Bandito]

Yeah this was all assuming you were able to sign Hamilton. There is a prior connection as well of the blues trying to acquire him. From what I heard at the time the blues were one of the other teams in on Hamilton when he was traded to Carolina. I also believe they inquired when they traded for Faulk instead. So I wouldn't be surprised at all if they were in on him now as a UFA.

 

[Reality Czech]

While I'm not 100% behind the idea, it makes a lot of sense if there is a feeling he won't be re-signing here for whatever reason. He would be perfect for Edmonton and could help McDrai finally get to the promised land. I think it's only a matter of time for them.

 

[simon IC]

I don't get the replacing Parayko with Hamilton narrative. The only thing the two players have in common is their height. Parayko, (when healthy), is elite defensively. He is a true shutdown defender. Hamilton is a PMD. He is offense first. I am not saying he sucks defensively, but it is not his focus. If we move Parayko, we lose what we have left of our defensive defensemen. We can't replace Parayko with another offensive D.

 

[ezcreepin]

I don't get the replacing Parayko with Hamilton narrative. The only thing the two players have in common is their height. Parayko, (when healthy), is elite defensively. He is a true shutdown defender. Hamilton is a PMD. He is offense first. I am not saying he sucks defensively, but it is not his focus. If we move Parayko, we lose what we have left of our defensive defensemen. We can't replace Parayko with another offensive D.

You also can't replace him if his back fails him. If you could promise me that Parayko would be healthy for the rest of his career back-wise, then I wouldn't trade him or even entertain that thought. But if you believe he has issues that might be building up, then you probably look at protecting the team as opposed to being loyal to the player. Now I'm not going to sit here and tell you that Parayko will lose his career before he's 32 to back injuries, but it is something to consider. We saw Armstrong let Schwartz walk for whatever reason (possibly due to the fact he misses a decent portion of time each year), so we have to assume Army would do the same to Parayko (assuming Parayko starts missing significant time each year).

 

[simon IC]

You also can't replace him if his back fails him. If you could promise me that Parayko would be healthy for the rest of his career back-wise, then I wouldn't trade him or even entertain that thought. But if you believe he has issues that might be building up, then you probably look at protecting the team as opposed to being loyal to the player. Now I'm not going to sit here and tell you that Parayko will lose his career before he's 32 to back injuries, but it is something to consider. We saw Armstrong let Schwartz walk for whatever reason (possibly due to the fact he misses a decent portion of time each year), so we have to assume Army would do the same to Parayko (assuming Parayko starts missing significant time each year).

Fine. Then we need to focus on acquiring a RD shutdown defenseman. We have enough one-dimensional PMD's.

 

[BleedBlue14]

I would be very hesitant to trade Parayko or even consider it unless we are selling at the deadline this season and haven’t gotten anywhere in terms of extensions (which we really should be discussing with him this offseason).

Our defense isn’t really that great in our own end or at least seemed to have deficiencies last season with Parayko missing time and being hurt.

I don’t necessarily love our chances of being competitive right now and I don’t think Dougie Hamilton changes that. I’d be much more inclined to try and keep Parayko as opposed to going with an offensive first defense approach especially given our forward group and our coach.

If Krug bounces back nicely like Faulk did this season and Faulk continues to improve and be a really good player for us maybe that is something to discuss. I’d much rather us focus on adding something up front or solidifying the defensive depth right now as opposed to trying to give minutes to 3 right defenseman like we did Faulks first season

 

[EL Bandito]

A couple things:

1) I don't want to trade Parayko at all, he's one of my favorites, but im trying to be realistic as well, knowing he holds a lot of value. This is really the only kind of situation where I'd understand why you would trade him.

I'm just tired of losing players for nothing letting them walk out the door. Last season it was a longshot to go anywhere in the playoffs and they were limping in at that. The right move should have been to sell Schwartz, Bozak and Hoffman at the deadline, especially after AP walked the previous off-season. I would have sold them for picks and prospects knowing teams are going to have to make tough decisions and sell players on the cheap just to work the cap. Losing Parayko like that would be too much of a blow.

2) Parayko is going to get a big contract. If Jones got 9.5 and Hamilton gets 8.5-9, I don't see how he gets less than 7.5 at 7 or 8 years. That doesn't sound amazing when he's already a 30-35pt guy on average. Then there's the back issue. Just look at what back problems have done to Jake Gardiner, he's barely NHL level anymore. Hopefully he's perfectly fine moving forward.

3) Hamilton is actually quite a bit better defensively as he's aged than he's getting credit for. No, he's not Parayko but he's not Krug either. A 7yr deal takes him to 34 which is not bad considering for a max term UFA. Theres also the previous interest the blues have had in him and he and Faulk are friends. He instantly becomes the #1 D.

I know its far-fetched and very unlikely to happen, but it feels like one of those out of nowhere Army specials that actually makes a bit of sense. And Parayko to the Oilers make a ton of sense for them and is exactly what they are looking for right now...and he's the hometown boy.

 

[Ranksu]

It could potentially be Parayko will test UFA market next off-season and he will walk for nothing.

 

[cardinalnation]

Looks like if there’s any building to be done on defense it is going to have to come through the trade market. Pretty much anyone can help us has been signed already. I would circle back and see if Seattle will trade Oleksiak and if not maybe Laarson. I am already starting to hate that team.

 

[TruBlu]

It could potentially be Parayko will test UFA market next off-season and he will walk for nothing.

To add to this, I think if we get close to the trade deadline this season and Parayko isn't signed you have to start looking at our situation. If we are outside looking in it would probably be best to look for another team who is looking for a shutdown dman because of injuries, etc. I think DA's moves signal we are in a transition to a younger core. The extensions and acquisition of Buchnevich line up with our guys like Thomas and Kyrou taking the helm possibly in as little as two years.

 

[Zezel’s Pretzels]

Any trade that sends Colton to EDM is going to have to be a hockey trade - EDM is capped out. What are they willing to send back that's worth our time? We're not selling him for futures given our roster.

 

[sfvega]

If Parayko leaves or doesn't return to form, our defense and team will be in shambles. We aren't good enough on offense to compete with real contenders and if our D takes one more big hit, it'll be sunk. We aren't rebuilding yet, but if he leaves, we are officially in the rebuild.

 

[execwrite1]

Well, there goes my plan. I wanted Oleksiak (signed 5 x $4.6 mil) an David Savard (4 x $3.5 mil).

Regarding Parayko - he has to prove he can stay healthy and put up some offensive numbers before a big contract.

 

[Stealth JD]

Still time to make a move or two...but as-is, this defense is trash...with or without Parayko. Bottom-third of the league, no question. Blues are at best a bubble-playoff team...but likely on the outside looking in. Army's got work to do, unless internally they're planning a down year. I think the playoffs are overly ambitious at this point:

Colorado - cream of the crop
Minny/Dallas - playoff 'favorites'
Winnipeg/Nashville - bubble teams.
Chicago/STL/Phoenix - any of these teams could conceivably finish last in the division next year.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Still time to make a move or two...but as-is, this defense is trash...with or without Parayko. Bottom-third of the league, no question. Blues are at best a bubble-playoff team...but likely on the outside looking in. Army's got work to do, unless internally they're planning a down year. I think the playoffs overly ambitious at this point:

Colorado - cream of the crop
Minny/Dallas - playoff 'favorites'
Winnipeg/Nashville - bubble teams.
Chicago/STL/Phoenix - any of these teams could conceivably finish last in the division next year.

Bouwmeester, Edmundson, Gunnarson, Pietrangelo and Dunn all gone.

Ouch

 

[67Blues]

Still time to make a move or two...but as-is, this defense is trash...with or without Parayko. Bottom-third of the league, no question. Blues are at best a bubble-playoff team...but likely on the outside looking in. Army's got work to do, unless internally they're planning a down year. I think the playoffs are overly ambitious at this point:

Colorado - cream of the crop
Minny/Dallas - playoff 'favorites'
Winnipeg/Nashville - bubble teams.
Chicago/STL/Phoenix - any of these teams could conceivably finish last in the division next year.

I suspect that Chief doesn't make it through the year if the Blues are absolute garbage this year. New coach could start the retool process

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Still time to make a move or two...but as-is, this defense is trash...with or without Parayko. Bottom-third of the league, no question. Blues are at best a bubble-playoff team...but likely on the outside looking in. Army's got work to do, unless internally they're planning a down year. I think the playoffs are overly ambitious at this point:

Colorado - cream of the crop
Minny/Dallas - playoff 'favorites'
Winnipeg/Nashville - bubble teams.
Chicago/STL/Phoenix - any of these teams could conceivably finish last in the division next year.

Geez dude, can we see what the roster is going to be before making projections?

 

[EXTRAS]

What's the defense look like right now?

 

[BlueDream]

Geez dude, can we see what the roster is going to be before making projections?

The funny irony is how Colorado is still getting praised in that post despite their goalie signing with Seattle.

 

[Stealth JD]

Geez dude, can we see what the roster is going to be before making projections?

Rankings can change as moves are made. My first sentence alludes to changes yet to be made.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Rankings can change as moves are made. My first sentence alludes to changes yet to be made.

Zackly! It’s fluid and fun.

It’s kind of like someone who is afraid to say what they’re top 5 bands are as if it is set in stone or sumpn.

 

[TruBlu]

Still time to make a move or two...but as-is, this defense is trash...with or without Parayko. Bottom-third of the league, no question. Blues are at best a bubble-playoff team...but likely on the outside looking in. Army's got work to do, unless internally they're planning a down year. I think the playoffs are overly ambitious at this point:

Colorado - cream of the crop
Minny/Dallas - playoff 'favorites'
Winnipeg/Nashville - bubble teams.
Chicago/STL/Phoenix - any of these teams could conceivably finish last in the division next year.

Not sure why you have us on the level as Chicago or Phoenix. I get that our defense has been downgraded, but we are nowhere near those two. I'd rank us in your "bubble team" category, and that is as of right now, without knowing what changes will be made prior to the start of the season.

 

[bradrich99]

I hate to say this but I think with the recent additions it is a fools errand to overlook Chicago. They are not going to be anyone's doormat.