Thornton says Matthews should be up for the Rocket, Selke, and Hart - PART 2

[Deadly Dogma]

This is still alive? my god

Its actually interesting to follow the cycles. It gets Leaf centric till about 11pm eastern then the Oiler fans take over replying to all the Leaf posters comments then the Leaf fans come on in the morning to reply to those replies lol

 

[HockeyVirus]

Seeing a lot of similarities between Matthews defensive game arguments and arguments used by flat earthers and anti-vaccers

He's excellent in pretty much every category you look in.

 

[nbwingsfan]

How many Oiler fans claiming McDavid is way better than Matthews watch Matthews on a regular basis?

Be honest now.

And BTW, I've watched McDavid a ton over the years, just not so much this season.

Likely more than Leaf fans.

Im still waiting for you to tell me how you came to the conclusion that Matthews=McDavid while admitting you haven't watched McDavid this season (the only season they've been even remotely close)?

 

[McFlyingV]

I watch EDM sometimes, not as much as the Leafs though. But I've watched him a fair bit since he entered the league as I'm a huge fan. For that reason, I think I have a pretty good idea of what he is while I can't say the same for Draisaitl.



So it's "essentially impossible" to win the Hart without making the playoffs yet it makes sense to think McDavid is a lock for the Hart.

Go on, I'm listening.



I don't know how often Oiler fans watch the Leafs so I don't assume that they do. That's not irony, it's common sense.

I mean the Oilers are in a pretty good position to make the playoffs right now, that should be pretty obvious. If we're basing things off what has already occurred then its easy to see why some might consider him a lock for the Hart.

It's common sense to assume that hockey fans don't watch other games, let alone other Canadian games? All you have to do is pop in an around the league or mainboards game day thread to see that posters are often watching games of teams that aren't their own. Just because you don't watch Edmonton and then try to rank Matthews above Edmonton players without ever watching them doesn't mean everyone else does the same.

 

[McFlyingV]

He's excellent in pretty much every category you look in.

There's plenty of other stats that aren't cherry picked by NHL network (you can't actually think these stats are a good argument can you?) that also show he hasn't been better than McDavid defensively this season. To imply he has been significantly better defensively (as many people have) is simply not rooted in reality.

 

[HockeyVirus]

There's plenty of other stats that aren't cherry picked by NHL network (you can't actually think these stats are a good argument can you?) that also show he hasn't been better than McDavid defensively this season. To imply he has been significantly better defensively (as many people have) is simply not rooted in reality.

What numbers show the two fairly that aren't cherry picked then? Educate me please.

 

[McFlyingV]

What numbers show the two fairly that aren't cherry picked then? Educate me please.

All stats have flaws so you won't see me trying to defend advanced stats, but these stats are at least routinely used and recognized by those that like to dive into advanced stats and try to quantify on ice impact of players. The ones you presented are literally stats that are rarely if ever discussed and were only picked by NHL network because Matthews apparently ranks high on them. It's almost identical to the time TSN or sportsnet put up a stat called "loose puck retrievals" that nobody had ever heard of, and showed it on a broadcast because Matthews apparently ranked #1.

What these stats you posted show is he's good in puck battles and good with his stick, but they show very little about his actual defensive impact on the ice in suppressing quality chances, goals, shots, etc. They don't even provide any insight into where these events occur.

 

[sparxx87]

Its actually interesting to follow the cycles. It gets Leaf centric till about 11pm eastern then the Oiler fans take over replying to all the Leaf posters comments then the Leaf fans come on in the morning to reply to those replies lol

More interesting is the group of fans who’ve assumed the role as gate keepers to McDavid’s throne who claim this isn’t a debate... but then proceed to engage in debate through a number of posts across multiple threads.

The amateur psychologist in me doesn’t see much reason to put time or energy in a debate you believe is without merit. They either lying to HF, lying to themselves, or they just really need a hobby.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

All stats have flaws so you won't see me trying to defend advanced stats, but these stats are at least routinely used and recognized by those that like to dive into advanced stats and try to quantify on ice impact of players. The ones you presented are literally stats that are rarely if ever discussed and were only picked by NHL network because Matthews apparently ranks high on them. It's almost identical to the time TSN or sportsnet put up a stat called "loose puck retrievals" that nobody had ever heard of, and showed it on a broadcast because Matthews apparently ranked #1.

What these stats you posted show is he's good in puck battles and good with his stick, but they show very little about his actual defensive impact on the ice in suppressing quality chances, goals, shots, etc. They don't even provide any insight into where these events occur.

Not to mention, how are they tracked? Who tracks them? Is there consistency in the way they're tracked from arena to arena?

Also, is there a site that lists all players just to compare? Is it available to the public?

For a stat to have any sort of validity, I think it first has to have transparency.

 

[HockeyVirus]

All stats have flaws so you won't see me trying to defend advanced stats, but these stats are at least routinely used and recognized by those that like to dive into advanced stats and try to quantify on ice impact of players. The ones you presented are literally stats that are rarely if ever discussed and were only picked by NHL network because Matthews apparently ranks high on them. It's almost identical to the time TSN or sportsnet put up a stat called "loose puck retrievals" that nobody had ever heard of, and showed it on a broadcast because Matthews apparently ranked #1.

What these stats you posted show is he's good in puck battles and good with his stick, but they show very little about his actual defensive impact on the ice in suppressing quality chances, goals, shots, etc. They don't even provide any insight into where these events occur.

So then how do you measure defensive impact. If every stat is dismissed as being made up and others don't quantify correctly, how do you determine Bergeron is better than Kadri for example? Only watching them? Then what do you do if someone hasn't watched a player? You can't prove they are good defensively?

There must be a way to rank players, and don't say plus / minus please lol. Matthews has been elite defensibly this year. Winning puck battles, blocking shots, are all key areas of a defensive game, wouldn't you agree? He tilts the ice whenever he steps onto it. So I want to see, in no BS terms, where these guys rank with these real stats then.

 

[sparxx87]

So then how do you measure defensive impact. If every stat is dismissed as being made up and others don't quantify correctly, how do you determine Bergeron is better than Kadri for example? Only watching them? Then what do you do if someone hasn't watched a player? You can't prove they are good defensively?

There must be a way to rank players, and don't say plus / minus please lol. Matthews has been elite defensibly this year. Winning puck battles, blocking shots, are all key areas of a defensive game, wouldn't you agree? He tilts the ice whenever he steps onto it. So I want to see, in no BS terms, where these guys rank with these real stats then.

Hockey analytics are still in their infancy, particularly player metrics. They’re a long way and a lot of technology from ever having the system you’re looking for.

They’re working on a tracking system for the puck and I think they’ll need to develop some sort of system that can fit within the sticks (bringing new meaning to ‘pro series’) to add to the chip in the sweaters before we’re making real progress.

 

[Deadly Dogma]

More interesting is the group of fans who’ve assumed the role as gate keepers to McDavid’s throne who claim this isn’t a debate... but then proceed to engage in debate through a number of posts across multiple threads.

The amateur psychologist in me doesn’t see much reason to put time or energy in a debate you believe is without merit. They either lying to HF, lying to themselves, or they just really need a hobby.

It makes sense why they would defend Mcdavid's badge as the best player so vehemently. Also makes sense why they feel so threatened by Matthews and Marner's recent success. If they lose that badge of Mcdavid being the clear #1 I think they would feel like they have nothing. So I completely understand the pro Mcdavid backlash when 1 suggests Matthews and Mcdavid may even be on the same tier.

 

[McFlyingV]

So then how do you measure defensive impact. If every stat is dismissed as being made up and others don't quantify correctly, how do you determine Bergeron is better than Kadri for example? Only watching them? Then what do you do if someone hasn't watched a player? You can't prove they are good defensively?

There must be a way to rank players, and don't say plus / minus please lol. Matthews has been elite defensibly this year. Winning puck battles, blocking shots, are all key areas of a defensive game, wouldn't you agree? He tilts the ice whenever he steps onto it. So I want to see, in no BS terms, where these guys rank with these real stats then.

I think it should be a combination of looking at the stats and watching them, but I also think it's pretty hard to be completely objective especially when voting on awards like the Selke unless you regularly watch all of the players worthy of a nomination. My issue isn't with using stats it's with using any stat you want to cherry pick like NHL network has, and Sidney the Kidney makes a lot of great points on these stats. At least publicly accessible advanced stats, or other advanced stat models have transparency while these stats don't and it's easy to pick apart the stats with very little effort.

I don't disagree that Matthews has been good on both ends of the ice this year. Elite is definitely stretching it, and elite defensive play is only backed by the stats posted in your picture. I think he deserves a lot of credit for working on his defensive game this year, but I think so does McDavid who also tilts the ice whenever he steps on it. And I would never use +/- as a stat in any argument of mine, its a horrible simplified stat with no context.

Theres publicly accessible databases out there for you to do your own research if you'd like. Naturalstattrick is one of them. If you want one example then xga/60 or xgf% are at least a decent place to start, but still have flaws of their own. I'm not going to push any advanced stat as a main point in my argument because I think you need to look at much more than just stats when evaluating players. My issue isn't with people claiming Matthews has been good defensively this year, it's with people blindly saying Matthews' defensive game is way better than McDavid's when there is nothing to support that, especially this season. If we're going to use a 20 game sample to debate Matthews vs. McDavid offensively (where McDavid is still currently outperforming him), then we'd better use that same sample and not past seasons to debate their defensive game.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Likely more than Leaf fans.

Im still waiting for you to tell me how you came to the conclusion that Matthews=McDavid while admitting you haven't watched McDavid this season (the only season they've been even remotely close)?

Based on what?

If you're going to respond to my posts, you should read them first. I have watched McDavid this season, just not as much as I have in some previous years. As to how I came to the conclusion - again, read my posts. I don't feel like repeating myself because you're not paying attention.

I mean the Oilers are in a pretty good position to make the playoffs right now, that should be pretty obvious. If we're basing things off what has already occurred then its easy to see why some might consider him a lock for the Hart.

It's common sense to assume that hockey fans don't watch other games, let alone other Canadian games? All you have to do is pop in an around the league or mainboards game day thread to see that posters are often watching games of teams that aren't their own. Just because you don't watch Edmonton and then try to rank Matthews above Edmonton players without ever watching them doesn't mean everyone else does the same.

And it follows that they're also in a pretty good position to miss the playoffs. Certainly they're nowhere close to a lock just like McDavid is nowhere close to a lock for the Hart.

This narrative of fans not watching other games works both ways, not sure why you think it helps you make some sort of point.

I have gone out of my way to watch Oiler games over the last number of years specifically because of McDavid. I'm sure I'm not the only one, in fact I'd say that he is the single player most watched by people who watch "other games" from time to time. And I'll bet that I've seen McDavid play more then 99.99% of Oiler fans (or fans of any other teams for that matter) have watched Matthews play so I'm in a better position than most to compare the two.

Gotta go now, I have a game to watch. Cheers!

 

[Bank Shot]

It makes sense why they would defend Mcdavid's badge as the best player so vehemently. Also makes sense why they feel so threatened by Matthews and Marner's recent success. If they lose that badge of Mcdavid being the clear #1 I think they would feel like they have nothing. So I completely understand the pro Mcdavid backlash when 1 suggests Matthews and Mcdavid may even be on the same tier.

Its because people have a natural instinct to try and correct people with donkey brain beliefs.

Look how much effort we spend trying to educate people who believe in flat earth. It's the same with people that think Matthews is on the same tier as McDavid.

We should just be ignoring these loons.

 

[tapi]

Jumbo Joe is right in regard to Hart. The guy who scores 50+50 is more valuable than one with 35+75

 

[McFlyingV]

Based on what?

If you're going to respond to my posts, you should read them first. I have watched McDavid this season, just not as much as I have in some previous years. As to how I came to the conclusion - again, read my posts. I don't feel like repeating myself because you're not paying attention.



And it follows that they're also in a pretty good position to miss the playoffs. Certainly they're nowhere close to a lock just like McDavid is nowhere close to a lock for the Hart.

This narrative of fans not watching other games works both ways, not sure why you think it helps you make some sort of point.

I have gone out of my way to watch Oiler games over the last number of years specifically because of McDavid. I'm sure I'm not the only one, in fact I'd say that he is the single player most watched by people who watch "other games" from time to time. And I'll bet that I've seen McDavid play more then 99.99% of Oiler fans (or fans of any other teams for that matter) have watched Matthews play so I'm in a better position than most to compare the two.

Gotta go now, I have a game to watch. Cheers!

Are they in a pretty good position to miss? Probability models show they're far more likely to make it than miss. We only have 36 games remaining in the season you need to remember.

As to your last point I highly doubt you have seen more of McDavid than 99.99% of Oilers fans on HF boards, which are really the only relevant fans in this debate because you aren't debating with non-HF fans here. A lot of Oilers fans watch Leafs games while waiting for Oilers games, while I doubt the same is true to the same extent for Leafs fans who are far more likely to be heading to bed with 9 or 10pm local time starts (we all have jobs and responsibilities after all).

 

[Deadly Dogma]

Its because people have a natural instinct to try and correct people with donkey brain beliefs.

Look how much effort we spend trying to educate people who believe in flat earth. It's the same with people that think Matthews is on the same tier as McDavid.

We should just be ignoring these loons.

Its OK, McDavid will always be an elite talent even if 1 day some one is better

 

[McFlyingV]

Jumbo Joe is right in regard to Hart. The guy who scores 50+50 is more valuable than one with 35+75

But is that what is being debated here? Because as of right now over an 82 game season their point per game pace would leave a 20 point gap.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

He's excellent in pretty much every category you look in.

Matthews

xGF - 2.83/60
xGA - 2.34/60

McDavid

xGF - 3.19/60
xGA - 1.91/60

 

[Bank Shot]

Its OK, McDavid will always be an elite talent even if 1 day some one is better

No he won't. He'll get old and decline then retire.

Someone will be better but we'll have to see a couple of seasons of better results before this is a legit topic of conversation.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Matthews

xGF - 2.83/60
xGA - 2.34/60

McDavid

xGF - 3.19/60
xGA - 1.91/60

Blocks:

MCD: 6
Matthews: 19

faceoff%:

MCD: 49.8%
Matthews: 53.3

Takeaways:

MCD: 8
Matthews: 15

Offensive zone starts:

MCD: 60.5
Matthews: 55.7

Defensive zone starts:

MCD: 39.5
Matthews: 44.3

Expected goals for:

MCD: 9.3
Matthews: 10.1

Expected goals against:

McDavid: 8.1
Matthews: 4.8

Between all of these, along with the graphic, so far the only thing I have seen is one stat that suggests McDavid is better. That to me seems like the cherry picked stat IMO.

 

[Revansky]

Really like Matthews and think, he's clearly a top 3 player in the game right now. Mcdavid is clearly the best player to date, this year though.

 

[authentic]

There's plenty of other stats that aren't cherry picked by NHL network (you can't actually think these stats are a good argument can you?) that also show he hasn't been better than McDavid defensively this season. To imply he has been significantly better defensively (as many people have) is simply not rooted in reality.

Lowest 5v5 Expected Goals Against/60 REL ranking among the 14 centers who played 1000+ minutes last year (Bergeron and Couts thrown in as they just missed the 1000 minute cut and should be included in a list covering defensive play):

1. O'Reilly
2. Schenn
3. Bergeron
4. Couturier
5. Matthews
6. Larkin
7. Kopitar
8. Mackinnon
9. Reinhart
10. Eichel
11. Barkov
12. Barzal
13. Draisaitl
14. Sheifele
15. McDavid

Actual Goals against/60 REL ranking last year from the same list:

1. Matthews
2. Kopitar
3. Couturier
4. Larkin
5. Schenn
6. Barkov
7. O'Reilly
8. Eichel
9. Barzal
10. Reinhart
11. Bergeron
12. Mackinnon
13. Draisaitl
14. McDavid
15. Sheifele

5v5 Takeaways/60 from the same list:

1. Matthews
2. Barzal
3. O'Reilly
4. McDavid
5. Barkov
6. Draisaitl
7. Sheifele
8. Bergeron
9. Eichel
10. Larkin
11. Couturier
12. Mackinnon
13. Kopitar
14. Schenn
15. Reinhart

Are these stats not rooted in reality? Or Matthews equaling McDavid in ES points/60 for almost 70 straight games now? Do you actually believe McDavid is better defensively than Matthews?

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Blocks:

MCD: 6
Matthews: 19

faceoff%:

MCD: 49.8%
Matthews: 53.3

Takeaways:

MCD: 8
Matthews: 15

Offensive zone starts:

MCD: 60.5
Matthews: 55.7

Defensive zone starts:

MCD: 39.5
Matthews: 44.3

Expected goals for:

MCD: 9.3
Matthews: 10.1

Expected goals against:

McDavid: 8.1
Matthews: 4.8

Between all of these, along with the graphic, so far the only thing I have seen is one stat that suggests McDavid is better. That to me seems like the cherry picked stat IMO.

Where are you getting these stats.

Naturalstattrick has Matthews at xGA at 11.83 with McDavid at 10.34