News Article: THN: Good article on how/why the Wings are winning etc.

Ghost of Ethan Hunt

The Official Ghost of Space Ghosts Monkey
Jun 23, 2018
8,733
5,092
Top Secret Moon Base
How the Red Wings became the NHL's hottest team — and why it might not last - TheHockeyNews

How the Red Wings became the NHL’s hottest team — and why it might not last

Some excerpts:

"Over the past four weeks, the goaltending duo of Jimmy Howard and Jonathan Bernier has been impeccable, hands down the best one-two punch in the league. Numbers alone tell the story, too. While there may be a few regrettable goals that have slipped by here or there, Bernier, who kicked off the hot streak in Detroit with 28 stops on 30 shots against Dallas, has managed a .933 save percentage over four games across the past month or so. Howard especially, though, has been lights out. In seven starts during this run, Howard is sporting six wins and has bettered Bernier with a .936 SP. And combined, the duo has stopped all but 26 of the nearly 400 shots they’ve faced since the late-October defeat of the Stars, good for a .942 SP."

"Over the past four weeks, the goaltending duo of Jimmy Howard and Jonathan Bernier has been impeccable, hands down the best one-two punch in the league. Numbers alone tell the story, too. While there may be a few regrettable goals that have slipped by here or there, Bernier, who kicked off the hot streak in Detroit with 28 stops on 30 shots against Dallas, has managed a .933 save percentage over four games across the past month or so. Howard especially, though, has been lights out. In seven starts during this run, Howard is sporting six wins and has bettered Bernier with a .936 SP. And combined, the duo has stopped all but 26 of the nearly 400 shots they’ve faced since the late-October defeat of the Stars, good for a .942 SP.

To put the strength of the Red Wings’ goaltending in recent weeks into context, consider that the only clubs with better 5-on-5 SPs than Detroit since Oct. 28 are Columbus and the Toronto Maple Leafs. And at all strengths, the Red Wings leap ahead of the Blue Jackets and into second behind the Maple Leafs. That’s helped along by sound netminding on the penalty kill, in particular, as Howard and Bernier have combined for an .895 SP on the PK since Oct. 28. That’s the seventh-best mark in the league over that span.

There are other reasons for Detroit’s success, of course. The depth of scoring has been somewhat impressive from a team that appeared to have very little heading into the campaign Led by Dylan Larkin..."

"It’s not just the way Detroit is getting to the results that’s concerning, though. It’s also the foundation on which this streak has been built, one that appears flimsier than a five-dollar tent. Across their past 11 games, the Red Wings rank fifth-last in the NHL in Corsi percentage (46.4), fourth-last in shots for percentage (45.1), second-last in scoring chances percentage (45) and dead-last in high-danger chances percentage (39.6) at five-a-side. The Red Wings’ success hasn’t been predicated on overwhelming teams. Rather, it’s been the result of the aforementioned otherworldly goaltending and a team-wide shooting percentage of nine percent at 5-on-5, which is the 11th-best rate in the league since Oct. 28.
The truth about the Red Wings is that they’re likely not quite as bad as the team we saw to begin the season, nor are they quite as good as the team that has skated away from nine of its past 11 outings victorious."
 
Last edited:

Ghost of Ethan Hunt

The Official Ghost of Space Ghosts Monkey
Jun 23, 2018
8,733
5,092
Top Secret Moon Base
Through 21 GP: (not bad considering our 1st 10 gms)

PP 22.4% (12th)
PK 81.6% (8th)
FO 52.2% (5th)

GF% 2.76 (19th)
GAA% 3.14 (24th)

We rank abysmally low in PP opps created/awarded.

5 players on pace for 50+ pts. (71,72, 14, 25, 51)

Bert is 2pts. shy in his next game of .63ppg (50 pt.pace)
AntMan needs 5pts in his next game
Cholo needs 3pts...
 

pz29

Registered User
Jun 18, 2015
505
211
This is horsecrap of an"analysis" written by a TML fanboy. To liaten to him there's nothing going for them but goaltending.
 

Flowah

Registered User
Nov 30, 2009
10,249
547
What I'm reading is a sky-high SV% (SP%? Wtf? We changed that?) And SH% which would combine for a high PDO.

Which would mean we're likely due for a serious fall at some point.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Fire Ken Holland

The Zetterberg Era

Ball Hockey Sucks
Nov 8, 2011
40,977
11,600
Ft. Myers, FL
I have a feeling we are at the top of the rollercoaster right now.

But the development of some of our key young guys is huge regardless. I think we will fade back to the bottom, December looks like a tough month for us. But I am happy with the effort, I am really happy the young guys seem to have bought into Larkin taking ownership of the team and I feel like we are getting more out of everyone.
 

SirloinUB

Registered User
Aug 20, 2010
4,663
2,151
Canada
What I'm reading is a sky-high SV% (SP%? Wtf? We changed that?) And SH% which would combine for a high PDO.

Which would mean we're likely due for a serious fall at some point.

Yes and no. First, our season can be broken into 2 streaks basically. To start the season we were well below expected PDO and now a hot streak where we are above expected PDO. When you average it all out our true (ie. YTD) PDO is 100.1. So yea, we should fall off this hot streak, but our spot in the league (in the bubble race) chould be maintainable if our “luck” holds we average.”

The other element, and this isn't something I'd gamble on, but, poor teams have proven it is possible to maintain (luck) inflated shooting and save %'s throughout an entire season.

I guess as the article states, we aren't as bad as we looked to start, and we aren't as good as we've been playing lately.

All of that said, this hot streak has been on the backs of the kids (promising, can they continue to grow?) but they have all had high shooting % (as of saturday, Larkin, AA, Mantha, Ras, and Bert all had sh% > 14% over the 10 game period). We've also had an easier schedule through most of November.

Anyway, I don't really disagree that we'll likely stumble sooner than later but I wanted to dump some thoughts and add more context.
 
Last edited:

Ghost of Ethan Hunt

The Official Ghost of Space Ghosts Monkey
Jun 23, 2018
8,733
5,092
Top Secret Moon Base
I still think we'll finish bottom 5, possibly bottom 10 best case scenario, which is fine for the draft pick. I wonder if Green sustains good play/pts, say 50-60 pts. pace by TDL, teams may be calling, even with NTC & 1 yr. left on deal.
 

SirloinUB

Registered User
Aug 20, 2010
4,663
2,151
Canada
I wonder if Green sustains good play/pts, say 50-60 pts. pace by TDL, teams may be calling, even with NTC & 1 yr. left on deal.

I know he doesn’t have the greatest reputation across the league but if we retain money how do competing teams pass on him?

A 40 point right handed PMD at 2.5-3.0 million for 2 playoff runs? Someone would make a big offer, no?

Obviously Holland’s interest in such a deal is another issue all together but if he’s known for anything, it’s his willingness to kick tires. See who you can rob Kenny!
 

The Zermanator

In Yzerman We Trust
Jan 21, 2013
3,387
1,185
I have a feeling we are at the top of the rollercoaster right now.

But the development of some of our key young guys is huge regardless. I think we will fade back to the bottom, December looks like a tough month for us. But I am happy with the effort, I am really happy the young guys seem to have bought into Larkin taking ownership of the team and I feel like we are getting more out of everyone.

Yeah we're definitely due for a drop at some point, and I think it'll be a pretty significant one. The goaltending will not continue as it has indefinitely. And if history is any indication, Howard will get injured at some point and will probably struggle when he gets back.

But as you said the encouraging thing is the players we want to see succeed are succeeding, the young guys. The team that's being built for the future. That's the important thing in a rebuild.
 
  • Like
Reactions: The Zetterberg Era

InjuredChoker

Registered User
Dec 25, 2011
31,402
345
LTIR or golf course
Yes and no. First, our season can be broken into 2 streaks basically. To start the season we were well below expected PDO and now a hot streak where we are above expected PDO. When you average it all out our true (ie. YTD) PDO is 100.1. So yea, we should fall off this hot streak, but our spot in the league (in the bubble race) chould be maintainable if our “luck” holds we average.”

The other element, and this isn't something I'd gamble on, but, poor teams have proven it is possible to maintain (luck) inflated shooting and save %'s throughout an entire season.

I guess as the article states, we aren't as bad as we looked to start, and we aren't as good as we've been playing lately.

All of that said, this hot streak has been on the backs of the kids (promising, can they continue to grow?) but they have all had high shooting % (as of saturday, Larkin, AA, Mantha, Ras, and Bert all had sh% > 14% over the 10 game period). We've also had an easier schedule through most of November.

Anyway, I don't really disagree that we'll likely stumble sooner than later but I wanted to dump some thoughts and add more context.

while your points are true, our goal differential 5on5 is -8, goals for % is just under 45%; 5th worst in the league. we have won close games and lost blowout games. like high PDO, that's not sustainable way but seams teams have managed to pull it for the whole season. for boudreau teams and ducks, these rules don't seem to apply.

we also have the worst penalty differential in the league, -21. next worst is -14. so while our special teams have overperformed (and it's possible it's maintained for full season), our penalty differential should also get better, minimizing the possible regression from special teams efficiency.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SirloinUB

Oddbob

Registered User
Jan 21, 2016
15,884
10,428
I don't think the article is that far off, as we get outshot and out-chanced by a lot most games, especially outshot by a lot, and with even slightly worse goaltending, we don't have the offensive finish to get goals back. Reality is, Larkin has been lights out good so far, and AA is quite hot right now, with Cholowski having been awesome as well, despite this, Howard has been great all season, and we have escaped embarrassment quite a few times this season.

Many nights we start the game off horrendously being outshot 23-9 and things like this and Jimmy holds the fort, and we start playing better in the second half of the game, and have been able to win because of it.

Larkin has been the MVP so far to me, with Howard extremely close second.
 

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,170
12,160
Tampere, Finland
I don't think the article is that far off, as we get outshot and out-chanced by a lot most games, especially outshot by a lot, and with even slightly worse goaltending, we don't have the offensive finish to get goals back. Reality is, Larkin has been lights out good so far, and AA is quite hot right now, with Cholowski having been awesome as well, despite this, Howard has been great all season, and we have escaped embarrassment quite a few times this season.

Many nights we start the game off horrendously being outshot 23-9 and things like this and Jimmy holds the fort, and we start playing better in the second half of the game, and have been able to win because of it.

Larkin has been the MVP so far to me, with Howard extremely close second.

Yep.

I do my own sports betting data and still see Wings as the bottom3 team with Kings and Sens.

No matter how much they win. When opposite teams start taking us seriously (instead of off-days), we'll start losing again.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Fire Ken Holland

Fil Larkmanthanasiou

Registered User
Feb 10, 2018
1,115
603
How the Red Wings became the NHL's hottest team — and why it might not last - TheHockeyNews

How the Red Wings became the NHL’s hottest team — and why it might not last

Some excerpts:

"Over the past four weeks, the goaltending duo of Jimmy Howard and Jonathan Bernier has been impeccable, hands down the best one-two punch in the league. Numbers alone tell the story, too. While there may be a few regrettable goals that have slipped by here or there, Bernier, who kicked off the hot streak in Detroit with 28 stops on 30 shots against Dallas, has managed a .933 save percentage over four games across the past month or so. Howard especially, though, has been lights out. In seven starts during this run, Howard is sporting six wins and has bettered Bernier with a .936 SP. And combined, the duo has stopped all but 26 of the nearly 400 shots they’ve faced since the late-October defeat of the Stars, good for a .942 SP."

"Over the past four weeks, the goaltending duo of Jimmy Howard and Jonathan Bernier has been impeccable, hands down the best one-two punch in the league. Numbers alone tell the story, too. While there may be a few regrettable goals that have slipped by here or there, Bernier, who kicked off the hot streak in Detroit with 28 stops on 30 shots against Dallas, has managed a .933 save percentage over four games across the past month or so. Howard especially, though, has been lights out. In seven starts during this run, Howard is sporting six wins and has bettered Bernier with a .936 SP. And combined, the duo has stopped all but 26 of the nearly 400 shots they’ve faced since the late-October defeat of the Stars, good for a .942 SP.

To put the strength of the Red Wings’ goaltending in recent weeks into context, consider that the only clubs with better 5-on-5 SPs than Detroit since Oct. 28 are Columbus and the Toronto Maple Leafs. And at all strengths, the Red Wings leap ahead of the Blue Jackets and into second behind the Maple Leafs. That’s helped along by sound netminding on the penalty kill, in particular, as Howard and Bernier have combined for an .895 SP on the PK since Oct. 28. That’s the seventh-best mark in the league over that span.

There are other reasons for Detroit’s success, of course. The depth of scoring has been somewhat impressive from a team that appeared to have very little heading into the campaign Led by Dylan Larkin..."

"It’s not just the way Detroit is getting to the results that’s concerning, though. It’s also the foundation on which this streak has been built, one that appears flimsier than a five-dollar tent. Across their past 11 games, the Red Wings rank fifth-last in the NHL in Corsi percentage (46.4), fourth-last in shots for percentage (45.1), second-last in scoring chances percentage (45) and dead-last in high-danger chances percentage (39.6) at five-a-side. The Red Wings’ success hasn’t been predicated on overwhelming teams. Rather, it’s been the result of the aforementioned otherworldly goaltending and a team-wide shooting percentage of nine percent at 5-on-5, which is the 11th-best rate in the league since Oct. 28.
The truth about the Red Wings is that they’re likely not quite as bad as the team we saw to begin the season, nor are they quite as good as the team that has skated away from nine of its past 11 outings victorious."
If Bernier has a .933 SP and Howard has a .936 SP, they couldn't have combined for .942 SP. They guy's math is off.
Hot goalies and Larkin and AA are leading the way. The goalies won't be able to maintain those kind of stats for the rest of the season and the team won't be able to maintain nearly as good of a winning percentage as the over .800 that they have over the last 11 games but unless Larkin, AA and/or Howie miss a bunch of games I think they will contend for a playoff spot. I'm not sure that is the best thing for the team long term because of a lower draft position and I could see Kenny being a buyer at the trade deadline if they are still contending but winning in the NHL is good for the development of the young guys already with the Wings.
 

Oddbob

Registered User
Jan 21, 2016
15,884
10,428
Yep.

I do my own sports betting data and still see Wings as the bottom3 team with Kings and Sens.

No matter how much they win. When opposite teams start taking us seriously (instead of off-days), we'll start losing again.

Yeah, and also we see the other teams backup quite a lot as well, which is also going to help us.
 

SirloinUB

Registered User
Aug 20, 2010
4,663
2,151
Canada
If Bernier has a .933 SP and Howard has a .936 SP, they couldn't have combined for .942 SP. They guy's math is off.
Hot goalies and Larkin and AA are leading the way. The goalies won't be able to maintain those kind of stats for the rest of the season and the team won't be able to maintain nearly as good of a winning percentage as the over .800 that they have over the last 11 games but unless Larkin, AA and/or Howie miss a bunch of games I think they will contend for a playoff spot. I'm not sure that is the best thing for the team long term because of a lower draft position and I could see Kenny being a buyer at the trade deadline if they are still contending but winning in the NHL is good for the development of the young guys already with the Wings.

One thing we've historically seen is Howard start strong until he gets injured at which point, his performance falls off. Given what we've seen of Bernier so far his performance seemingly shows we have a trustworthy backup. I'm curious, with a lighter work load (ie. more rest days, less starts), I wonder if Howard might stay healthier longer, thus sustaining his play later into the year.
 

Pavels Dog

Registered User
Feb 18, 2013
19,852
14,933
Sweden
The truth about the Red Wings is that they’re likely not quite as bad as the team we saw to begin the season, nor are they quite as good as the team that has skated away from nine of its past 11 outings victorious."
So, in conclusion Wings are not 0-82 bad and not 60+ wins good? Shocking.

I'd say if the Wings can hang around .500 for half the season they have shattered expectations.
 
  • Like
Reactions: kliq and CykaBlyat

Pizza!Pizza!

Registered User
Sep 25, 2018
4,740
7,207
One thing we've historically seen is Howard start strong until he gets injured at which point, his performance falls off. Given what we've seen of Bernier so far his performance seemingly shows we have a trustworthy backup. I'm curious, with a lighter work load (ie. more rest days, less starts), I wonder if Howard might stay healthier longer, thus sustaining his play later into the year.
Exactly, Blashill finally learned he can't start Howard 20 games in a row and is actually doing a good job rotating them, they're almost 1a/1b. This is critical to maintain because Bernier has also shown in the past he cannot sustain his level of play if he starts every night. Keep platooning them and the sky's the limit. Just look at how Anaheim made the playoffs last year and somehow has more than 3 wins this year despite being garbage - Gibson/Miller stealing games.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: SirloinUB

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad