THN Future Watch?

[Joe MacMillan]

Agreed, but keep in mind that those rankings were done around the 1st of the year, and a lot of games have been played since then. In addition to Montoya, Pavelec has been on fire since returning from the WJC. The two of them would probably be a bit higher today.

Add Rask to that list. He has been huge since the WJC as well.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Agreed, but keep in mind that those rankings were done around the 1st of the year, and a lot of games have been played since then. In addition to Montoya, Pavelec has been on fire since returning from the WJC. The two of them would probably be a bit higher today.

It doesn't matter when they were done. Montoya is playing in the AHL and has proven much more than any of those guys ahead of him and the guy has also won a WJC gold for the US. He's been fantastic in the AHL. He had a slightly slow start this year, but to have all of these guys ahead of him is an absolute joke.

None have proven anything as of yet compared to him outside of Harding.

 

[PuckheadMcGillycuddy]

Add Rask to that list. He has been huge since the WJC as well.

Well, but Rask is already No. 2, so not much room for him to go up from there. The point was that we were saying that Montoya and Pavelec are probably too low on that top 15 list.

 

[PuckheadMcGillycuddy]

It doesn't matter when they were done. Montoya is playing in the AHL and has proven much more than any of those guys ahead of him and the guy has also won a WJC gold for the US. He's been fantastic in the AHL. He had a slightly slow start this year, but to have all of these guys ahead of him is an absolute joke.

None have proven anything as of yet compared to him outside of Harding.

You're preachin' to the choir, Jon Rx!

 

[PecaFan]

IMO, the biggest snub for the top 15 is Downie. Love him or hate him, he's going to be one of the best big-game players in the league, and a player that every team in the league will covet.

I think Downie will be your textbook 3rd liner, PK'er, scrapper.

Useful, but hardly rare.

 

[Joe MacMillan]

Well, but Rask is already No. 2, so not much room for him to go up from there. The point was that we were saying that Montoya and Pavelec are probably too low on that top 15 list.

Ya didn't think that Rask should be higher or anything. Just pointed out that there are also other goalies that have performed better after the rankings had been made.

Dont know about Pavelec because I haven't really followed him but I agree that Montoya should be higher. I also fail to understand why the hell is Helenius that high. He's been injured almost all season.

 

[God Bless Canada]

I think Downie will be your textbook 3rd liner, PK'er, scrapper.

Useful, but hardly rare.

I think he might be the next Claude Lemieux. Whether you like Claude or you don't like Claude (trust me, I don't) he was a guy who always came up with his biggest performance when it mattered most. In a Game 7 situation, he was absolutely a guy you wanted on your team. Scouts have been looking for the next Claude Lemieux for well over a decade now, and I think Downie could be it.

If Downie is the next C. Lemieux, he will be better than most of the guys rated ahead of him.

 

[Letang fan 58]

I think Downie will be your textbook 3rd liner, PK'er, scrapper.

Useful, but hardly rare.

Yea he is that textbook 3rd liner, however he has scoring touch and big game presence..........plus hes a huge agitator, all put together = nice prospect to have.

 

[johnny canuckistan]

I think he might be the next Claude Lemieux. Whether you like Claude or you don't like Claude (trust me, I don't) he was a guy who always came up with his biggest performance when it mattered most. In a Game 7 situation, he was absolutely a guy you wanted on your team. Scouts have been looking for the next Claude Lemieux for well over a decade now, and I think Downie could be it.

If Downie is the next C. Lemieux, he will be better than most of the guys rated ahead of him.

Interesting comparison, I don't think he'll be quite as good as C. Lemieux but Downie is still a keeper.

 

[helicecopter]

It doesn't matter when they were done. Montoya is playing in the AHL and has proven much more than any of those guys ahead of him...

None have proven anything as of yet compared to him outside of Harding.

Yeah right..

 

[Dr.Sens(e)]

The thing about the issue that strikes me is how rookies in the AHL drop so drastically as if they were expected to dominate right off the start. It's pretty unrealistic to me.

For instance, Jared Boll is ranked ahead of Adam Pineault in Columbus. Pineault has had a really solid year in the AHL thus far as a rookie and looks to be a pretty safe bet to crack Columbus in the next few years. Meanwhile, Boll definitely has potential, but how he passes Pineault while posting only decent numbers on a stacked team in the OHL, even for a tough guy, is beyond me. He certainly isn't ahead of him on HF's list, where Pineault is #4 and Boll unrated (although probably should be somewhere 10-20).

For Chicago, David Bolland has dropped out of the top 50 and somehow all the way to #10 with the Hawks (still #3 for Chicago on HF), all the while producing at a clip that will see him get 40-50 points in the AHL this season. I'm not sure what was expected of him, but those are very solid numbers for a 20 year old still looking to put on some muscle (that always comes easier at 23 than at 20).

The same thing happened to Schremp, Montoya and a few others. It's as if the those ranking don't appreciate what a quantum leap it is to go from junior to the AHL.

The rankings are still solid, this was just one trend with the Future Watch where it seemed so much more credit is given to junior numbers, where as a player who makes a decent imact as a rookie in the AHL all of a sudden drops.

 

[Zim]

The thing about the issue that strikes me is how rookies in the AHL drop so drastically as if they were expected to dominate right off the start. It's pretty unrealistic to me.

For instance, Jared Boll is ranked ahead of Adam Pineault in Columbus. Pineault has had a really solid year in the AHL thus far as a rookie and looks to be a pretty safe bet to crack Columbus in the next few years. Meanwhile, Boll definitely has potential, but how he passes Pineault while posting only decent numbers on a stacked team in the OHL, even for a tough guy, is beyond me. He certainly isn't ahead of him on HF's list, where Pineault is #4 and Boll unrated (although probably should be somewhere 10-20).

For Chicago, David Bolland has dropped out of the top 50 and somehow all the way to #10 with the Hawks (still #3 for Chicago on HF), all the while producing at a clip that will see him get 40-50 points in the AHL this season. I'm not sure what was expected of him, but those are very solid numbers for a 20 year old still looking to put on some muscle (that always comes easier at 23 than at 20).

The same thing happened to Schremp, Montoya and a few others. It's as if the those ranking don't appreciate what a quantum leap it is to go from junior to the AHL.

The rankings are still solid, this was just one trend with the Future Watch where it seemed so much more credit is given to junior numbers, where as a player who makes a decent imact as a rookie in the AHL all of a sudden drops.

I agree with the overall point. I mean Bolland has 36 points in 52 games playing on the 3rd line (Reed Low has been his winger recently for god's sake) for Norfolk. I really don't understand why he drops out of the top 50 in favour of players putting up gaudy numbers in junior. He was also injured earlier on in the season so he's had that to contend with as well. He is just now starting to get some real chemistry with his line mates and starting to put up some points (he got 16 points in the 13 games in February as compared to his 17 points for the first 33 games of the season.) He is also a +5 which is good as it was always a worry that he wouldn't score consistently at even strength (when he got his 130 point season in 2006-2007 he was only a +7.)

 

[malkinfan]

Based on the list that orcatown posted, who would you remove from the top 15? The only players who might not belong in the top 15 are Brassard (depending on how he recovers from the lost year of development), Irving and Rask. (Always have my doubts about goaltenders). IMO, the biggest snub for the top 15 is Downie. Love him or hate him, he's going to be one of the best big-game players in the league, and a player that every team in the league will covet.

It's going to be heavy on North Americans because the last couple drafts have been kind to North American talent. Most of this year's list will be comprised of players from the 2005 and 2006 drafts. Those drafts contributed big-time to Canada's last two WJC gold medals. And the 2005 and 2006 drafts will go down as two of the best in U.S. history.

When Europe has a top-heavy draft, you'll see a Future Watch list dominated by Europeans.

I'm just saying that a player like kulemin, who has played spectacular in russia this year, has respectable physical features and plays a style of game similar to NA style: so why is he not on the list? Then I see a player like luc Bourdon on the list, a guy who has been disapointing and will maybe only be a career top four defensemen.

Last years list was a joke too - Gilbert Brule, Cam Barker, Lad Smid - None of which are blue chip prospects, and they all land in the top 10 ! - Above the likes of Kopitar, Radulov (who was the best player in junior hockey last year) and Paul Sastny (who wasn't even on the top 75 list). 3 of this years top rookies who are almost already all-star players weren't even in the top 10.

I'm just surprised that they didn't try to put johson over malkin.

 

[Blind Gardien]

The thing about the issue that strikes me is how rookies in the AHL drop so drastically as if they were expected to dominate right off the start. It's pretty unrealistic to me.
...

Good point. It's funny too, because I think in the past, THN has often had a few, shall we say "lingering minor league types" on the lists, guys who maybe were worth a few scratches of the head compared to the value of some younger guys. I always mentally rationalized this as perhaps them talking to NHL teams, and those NHL teams often trying to promote some of their own guys who were pseudo-on-the-cusp...? These days, instead of chatting with each team, it sounds like they have a panel of scouts, and maybe that's a way to get some younger guys ranked.

Anyway, nobody will ever come up with the perfect list, and as always Future Watch is as good as any.

 

[onphire]

I'm just saying that a player like kulemin, who has played spectacular in russia this year, has respectable physical features and plays a style of game similar to NA style: so why is he not on the list? Then I see a player like luc Bourdon on the list, a guy who has been disapointing and will maybe only be a career top four defensemen.

Last years list was a joke too - Gilbert Brule, Cam Barker, Lad Smid - None of which are blue chip prospects, and they all land in the top 10 ! - Above the likes of Kopitar, Radulov (who was the best player in junior hockey last year) and Paul Sastny (who wasn't even on the top 75 list). 3 of this years top rookies who are almost already all-star players weren't even in the top 10.

I'm just surprised that they didn't try to put johson over malkin.

It's about projection. Just because a player is having a tough year doesn't mean he won't fulfill his potential (most scouts still believe that Bourdon will be a very good player). That said, ranking is usually skewed towards players you see on a daily basis and for the most part the THN scouts go to CHL games or they make the list coming off the world jrs and there is no AHLers there so they get lost in the shuffle.

 

[bullsville]

Its nice to see Toews second

 

[malkinfan]

It's about projection. Just because a player is having a tough year doesn't mean he won't fulfill his potential (most scouts still believe that Bourdon will be a very good player). That said, ranking is usually skewed towards players you see on a daily basis and for the most part the THN scouts go to CHL games or they make the list coming off the world jrs and there is no AHLers there so they get lost in the shuffle.

I understand this, I'm just trying to make the point that some euros are definately overlooked. short term or longterm, a guy like kulemin should be somwhere in the top 15. Russian officials hold him in high esteem, they put him in the same class as a malkin, ovechkin, semin; from an offensive stanpoint. This may be a bit of an overstatement, as he problably wont ever be as good as ovy or malkin, but he will still have an immediate impact at the NHL level. It just seems blatantly obvious that a prospect this big is missing from the list.