This will be the best Canuck team since 2014.

bossram

Registered User
Sep 25, 2013
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Victoria
The 2014/15 forward group might be a bit deeper, but this current iteration should have a significantly better top-six. Obviously if players like Pettersson don't bounce back the team is basically screwed, but if the top-six plays to its potential we should be looking at 6 20 goal scorers, with some of them being 30 goal scorers.

The 2014/15 group had the still very effective Dan Hamhuis, Alex Edler, and Chris Tanev.

This iteration might have better top-end offense. But there is not a single defenseman that can provide the level of defensive impact of any of the three I just mentioned.

The Oilers and Canucks have the worst bluelines in the NHL, by quite a fair margin.
 

bossram

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Sep 25, 2013
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Victoria
I finally went through and updated rosters and did my first look at the numbers. As I expected, Seattle came out strong. Still a lot of work to do over the coming months but very very preliminarily it looks like this to me:

1. Vegas
2. Seattle
3. San Jose
4. Calgary
5. Los Angeles
6. Edmonton
7. Vancouver
8. Anaheim

S.J. is the only real surprise to me, gonna look into that but their offense rates better than I would have expected.

Unsurprisingly, Vancouver's defense rates very poor and, in fact, lowest among all 32 teams. But there is much work to do.

This result is not that surprising. Vegas, Seattle, and Calgary are the playoff teams for me. Edmonton and Vancouver have terrible bluelines and worse team defense.

San Jose does have quite a few "productive" players so I can see why they'd be rated highly. Last season they were kinda a "worse than the sum of their parts" team, especially with Martin Jones, Devan Dubnyk and Korenar in net.
 

iFan

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May 5, 2013
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Calgary
We are taking a big gamble on OEL returning to a top pairing D man in a new environment. But if he becomes that again we will have one heck of a team! Our top 9 is solid and having a Hughes OEL as a one two will make it hard for teams to shut them down, this will also open doors for Rathbone and Schenn on the 3rd pairing. I like how we have more defensive mind D man with size and grit, this was a huge problem for us.

I think we may surprise many, but we’re definitely taking on some risk.
 

iFan

Registered User
May 5, 2013
8,758
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Calgary
The 2014/15 group had the still very effective Dan Hamhuis, Alex Edler, and Chris Tanev.

This iteration might have better top-end offense. But there is not a single defenseman that can provide the level of defensive impact of any of the three I just mentioned.

The Oilers and Canucks have the worst bluelines in the NHL, by quite a fair margin.

I need to see how OEL fits on the team before I’d make an opinion like that. If a new environment turns his game around it could be a very good d core. Definitely a lot of risk was taken this offseason and we’ll see how it plays out.

If OEL busts that should get Benning fired as that will really hurt the team. I hope OEL turns things around because well… I actually want to see the team win a cup and not just use the Canucks failures to fuel negative emotions that one is addicted to.
 

RoyalRed

Registered User
Apr 8, 2013
475
497
I finally went through and updated rosters and did my first look at the numbers. As I expected, Seattle came out strong. Still a lot of work to do over the coming months but very very preliminarily it looks like this to me:

1. Vegas
2. Seattle
3. San Jose
4. Calgary
5. Los Angeles
6. Edmonton
7. Vancouver
8. Anaheim

S.J. is the only real surprise to me, gonna look into that but their offense rates better than I would have expected.

Unsurprisingly, Vancouver's defense rates very poor and, in fact, lowest among all 32 teams. But there is much work to do.
Lol ok Melvin. The defense is suspect yes but the Canucks are not finishing 2nd last in the division. If we had Seattle's roster I guarantee you would be laughing your ass off and putting us last.
 
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bossram

Registered User
Sep 25, 2013
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Victoria
I need to see how OEL fits on the team before I’d make an opinion like that. If a new environment turns his game around it could be a very good d core. Definitely a lot of risk was taken this offseason and we’ll see how it plays out.

If OEL busts that should get Benning fired as that will really hurt the team. I hope OEL turns things around because well… I actually want to see the team win a cup and not just use the Canucks failures to fuel negative emotions that one is addicted to.

I think OEL will "turn around" in the sense that he will be better than last season...the issue is that's a VERY low bar to clear. He was abjectly terrible last season. I get that psychologically, on a team/coach that actually want him, he'll be more comfortable.

The other problem is that his actual on-ice environment is likely to be worse. Vancouver is much worse defensively than Arizona. And by SportLogiq's data, Vancouver was the worst rush defence team in the NHL - even worse because rush defense is probably OEL's biggest weakness now. Vancouver is also likely to use OEL in a matchup role that he is no longer suited for. In secondary minutes and matchups, he already was caved in last season.

There's no need to wait and see. The OEL acquisition was way too much risk for way too little potential reward. I want the Canucks to win a Cup. But I'm not going to hold my breath with Benning at the helm, because it's just not going to happen. I'm not going to hope for something that isn't possible.
 

Bleach Clean

Registered User
Aug 9, 2006
26,997
6,572
the numbers are the numbers. It’s not based on my feelings.


What are you doing for your analysis?

Surprised about SJ, their offense seems anemic.

If the Canucks finish 2nd last, oh boy, it's going to be mayhem.
 

MarkMM

Registered User
Jan 30, 2010
2,948
2,290
Delta, BC
I'm an optimist too after the recent moves and I like our chances to make the playoffs now. I think OEL will rise to the challenge after getting out of that market. Garland is going to be like Motte, if Motte had soft hands.

There are a couple of issues.
a) We don't have much size in our top 6 and we will be easy to play against. With Podkolzin, Dickenson and Pearson patrolling the 3rd, we will have some push back though.
b) Hughes needs to gel with someone who can let him pinch.
c) Pettersson needs to elevate his game once again, but with a competent 2nd line finally in place, he ought to have some pressure off his line.
d) Everyone needs to have a rebound year for this team to make noise come playoff time and a lot of things need to go right. On paper, I think we have the personnel to do it in this division. How will the on-ice product be?
e) Has Travis Green finally figured things out? I saw him watching Vegas during the playoffs, hopefully he took notes.

Not worried about Demko-Halak at all, we are solid in net. While I wouldn't want to go into a season with Halak as the starter, he can certainly handle 35 games no problem.

I think we will be pushing the Oilers for 2nd all year.

This is the most balanced take I've seen, and I'm hopeful for it this year. What worries me is that Benning has blown the window where we had Horvat, Boeser, Petersson and Hughes on cheap years, and from here on it just gets much, much worse to hold on to them, and we've got the cap anchors of OEL and Myers to deal with.

So pressure should be on to make something of this year given how many draft picks and prospects we spent to make this one year possible.
 

CpatainCanuck

Registered User
Sep 18, 2008
6,702
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This is the most balanced take I've seen, and I'm hopeful for it this year. What worries me is that Benning has blown the window where we had Horvat, Boeser, Petersson and Hughes on cheap years, and from here on it just gets much, much worse to hold on to them, and we've got the cap anchors of OEL and Myers to deal with.

So pressure should be on to make something of this year given how many draft picks and prospects we spent to make this one year possible.

Benning went for it this year...and the team might not even be that good. :dunce:

I'm hoping this defence turns out to be better than it is on paper, but right now it looks mediocre at best.
 
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CpatainCanuck

Registered User
Sep 18, 2008
6,702
3,482
The 2014/15 group had the still very effective Dan Hamhuis, Alex Edler, and Chris Tanev.

This iteration might have better top-end offense. But there is not a single defenseman that can provide the level of defensive impact of any of the three I just mentioned.

The Oilers and Canucks have the worst bluelines in the NHL, by quite a fair margin.

Yeah, the defence looks bad on paper. I predict they make the playoffs though based on their forwards and goaltending.
 

Melvin

21/12/05
Sep 29, 2017
15,198
28,055
Montreal, QC
What are you doing for your analysis?

Surprised about SJ, their offense seems anemic.

If the Canucks finish 2nd last, oh boy, it's going to be mayhem.

I am projecting every player in the NHL using their xGF/xGA rates in the past 3 seasons (TOI and recency weighted,) then constructing rosters based on estimated usage, and projecting estimated GF/GA rates for each team based on said estimated usage of the players (so for example, assuming Pettersson gets 25% of ES Ice Time, 65% of PP time, and so forth.) I estimate PP/PK time as well based on penalty drawing and taking rates of the players. Finally, the last step is the Goaltending, which is the one I am least confident in, but again estimating #1/#2 usage for each team and projected GSAA based on the last 3 seasons.

It's very much still a work in progress, and the goaltending in particular seems wonky right now (the sum of estimated GSAA should be 0 but is instead a big negative number,) I will be adjusting my rankings as I iron out the kinks, but as I said in the other thread, I think 1, 2, and 8 are going to remain unchanged irrespective of any bug fixes or roster changes that happen from this point. The middle teams are re-arrangable. I have VAN and EDM as very close.
 

Bougieman

Registered User
Nov 12, 2008
6,565
1,715
Vancouver
I gotta tell ya, I'm feeling this optimism, too. Even on paper, this is an improved team. The only real big question marks for me are:

1. Can OEL turn around his career? How much of his poor last couple seasons was the context of where he was playing and that situation, and how much was just him dropping off in quality in a way that was unrelated to what team he was playing for?

2. Team chemistry: Hockey is a team sport, and nothing brings that home than stuff like this. That's a LOT of new moving parts, and none of us know how naturally they're going to fit together. For instance, we all assumed Schmidt was going to be a great fit here, and for whatever reason, he kinda wasn't.

Those are the two biggies. If both of those unspool in a way that ends up in the team's favor, this is a FOR SURE a playoff team. If not, it's likely gonna be not that dissimilar from what we saw last season.
 

HockeyNightInAsia

Registered User
Mar 22, 2020
277
187
I am projecting every player in the NHL using their xGF/xGA rates in the past 3 seasons (TOI and recency weighted,) then constructing rosters based on estimated usage, and projecting estimated GF/GA rates for each team based on said estimated usage of the players (so for example, assuming Pettersson gets 25% of ES Ice Time, 65% of PP time, and so forth.) I estimate PP/PK time as well based on penalty drawing and taking rates of the players. Finally, the last step is the Goaltending, which is the one I am least confident in, but again estimating #1/#2 usage for each team and projected GSAA based on the last 3 seasons.

It's very much still a work in progress, and the goaltending in particular seems wonky right now (the sum of estimated GSAA should be 0 but is instead a big negative number,) I will be adjusting my rankings as I iron out the kinks, but as I said in the other thread, I think 1, 2, and 8 are going to remain unchanged irrespective of any bug fixes or roster changes that happen from this point. The middle teams are re-arrangable. I have VAN and EDM as very close.

I am a pretty big math nerd myself, but I must say having Seattle and San Jose in top 3 is quite "un-commonsense". ;). Could there be some model bias e.g. would Seattle players be assumed to take on much bigger roles, and some of them may not be able to sustain similar GF/GA given increased usages?
 

racerjoe

Registered User
Jun 3, 2012
12,154
5,850
Vancouver
Seattle players last year on scored a total of 178 goals in their old roles and only including the top 12 forwards and top six d. That already puts them too 10 in the nhl. I don’t get the they can’t score narrative.
 

Melvin

21/12/05
Sep 29, 2017
15,198
28,055
Montreal, QC
I am a pretty big math nerd myself, but I must say having Seattle and San Jose in top 3 is quite "un-commonsense". ;). Could there be some model bias e.g. would Seattle players be assumed to take on much bigger roles, and some of them may not be able to sustain similar GF/GA given increased usages?

San Jose is an error. I found a couple bugs. :(

Seattle is legit though.

fixing the bugs and making a few roster updates, I’ll post new list in a couple weeks when rosters are finalized a bit more.

But to answer your question yea, to some extent some players are projected to take on bigger roles and maintain their level of play. I don’t see that as a bias, it’s something that may or may not happen.
 
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bertuzzi2bure

Registered User
Apr 14, 2021
406
418
People are forgetting how good both Petey and Hughes are. Both could breakout in a huge way this season. No reason why Petey cant get 90+ points and Hughes 70+. Not saying they will. But it is possible.
 

BrentSopelsHair

Registered User
Mar 2, 2016
604
1,596
StuckInYourDrain
Seems like most teams have a lackluster defensive group. Which teams in the Pacific have a strong defence? Not sure if the Canucks d is any worse than 16 other teams in the league, though I haven't studied each teams defence, but that's the impression I get when hearing info on other teams.
I'd say there are at least 3 teams in the Pacific I would trade dcores with in a heartbeat if the goal was to only compete this year. Vegas and Seattle are both easily better than are group, and I'd say Calgary's defense is considerably better too. I could be talked in/out of both Anaheim and Edmonton too (I completely forgot Keith is now on the Oilers, extremely stinky)
 

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