GDT: This Season's a Garden, Dig It: Devils @ Islanders, 7 PM, MSG+2

[haak84]

How does this jive with your "goalie killer" theory.

Maybe not hynes himself I actually like his goalie starting decisions most of the time. But this iteration of his system will absolutely kill goalies. No wonder most of them are crazy and Brodeur was even keeled. He didn’t have many bad teams.

This season Schneider has looked like the single worst goalie in the league. I think it’s a combination of injuries and this team defense. Schneider would absolutely have a win if he played on last nights islanders. I think he’s a bad goalie because of injuries but still should be better than mike McKenna and other barely nhl caliber goalies. It’s just too far a drop in play.

Kinkaid was up and down early on and actually had solid months up until December. The devils were not getting lucky and were being torched against good teams but better or equal to the mediocre to bad teams and really good at home. They were awful awful awful at 3 on 3 with no luck whatsoever. During this time the team could not rely on their backup and the pressure combined with the tough schedule and the devils awful play broke him. I do think he will progress back to somewhere in between how he’s performed the last month and how he started because the devils have the easiest schedule in the league moving forward. His lost some of his aggression and his positioning is off. He still shows flashes of athleticism. Kinkaid’s December featured 7 of 9 games against the 7 best teams in the league. The Devils have been awful against good teams all season long. So I think it’s fair to say the last 15 games are not a good representation of his goaltending ability.

Blackwood started his season much like Kinkaid did (in fact better) but he has looked pretty below average after that stretch. Hopefully he is somewhere in the middle but towards the better spectrum moving forward. I think he is a legit talent but a few more games like the islanders or if the devils played Tampa- he might get broken too. The good thing is if he plays well hynes will have no hesitation going with him. I would consider a 2.8 gaa and .910 a good season on this team and something to build on for next year. I’m rooting for him because it’s a wasteland for goalie acquisitions out there and I don’t want to see @Bleedred’s heart explode.

So maybe hynes himself isn’t a goalie killer but his system is so momentum based with no consistent structure that I think over time it will promote the use of multiple goalies in order to be successful. I think the last couple seasons hynes/shero have really started to implement and apply their system.

 

[JimEIV]

I agree - but I also think that Severson is particularly terrible at 'having his head on a swivel'. He drifted back towards the post, but didn't seem to know (or care?) that two Islanders were open in the center of the ice.

I get that our center (Zacha) should tie one up - but Severson was drifting and puck watching.

I've never seen a group of defensemen so bad at tying up sticks, blocking shots, clearing the crease, preventing the pass.

There is seemingly not one of them who can consistently do any of the above on a reliable basis. Greene knows what to do but is a step too slow. The rest (maybe Santini and Mueller are a step ahead of the rest and have some of the above skills) just cannot be relied upon by their goalie.

You can't tie up sticks, block shots or clear the crease when you are running around chasing the play...that is what this scheme requires...the defense is often playing man to man and chasing. How can you have a stick in lane when you are reading the play looking for who you need to pick up next in quasi man coverage?

I honestly believe a lot of the problems we are seeing are a result of the system.

 

[billingtons ghost]

How does this jive with your "goalie killer" theory.

It ain't the goalie, it's the system. Blackwood (sadly) ain't gonna be our savior.

 

[billingtons ghost]

You can't tie up sticks, block shots or clear the crease when you are running around chasing the play...that is what this scheme requires...the defense is often playing man to man and chasing. How can you have a stick in lane when you are reading the play looking for who you need to pick up next in quasi man coverage?

I honestly believe a lot of the problems we are seeing are a result of the system.

I started out thinking our defensemen weren't going to succeed because they just weren't very puck smart. I think you're winning me over that not many defensemen could thrive in this system. Unless maybe if they were elite at reading the play.

There's definitely a beaten dog syndrome going on - wherein these guys all fall into a panic mode pretty quickly and puck watch until the other team gets a great chance.

That said - there's a marked improvement in our coverage when Mueller/Santini are on the ice - and you can see Greene make plays when his skating allows - these guys tie up sticks, finish checks in the corner and usually move people out of the way...

 

[haak84]

You can't tie up sticks, block shots or clear the crease when you are running around chasing the play...that is what this scheme requires...the defense is often playing man to man and chasing. How can you have a stick in lane when you are reading the play looking for who you need to pick up next in quasi man coverage?

I honestly believe a lot of the problems we are seeing are a result of the system.

Islanders put on a pokechecking and stick defense clinic last night. Hynes had no answer to it.

 

[Great Wall of Jersey]

Islanders put on a pokechecking and stick defense clinic last night. Hynes had no answer to it.

This was especially true for the first period. Before the Isles goal (yeah, all two minutes of it) the Devils actually were playing solid! However, the Isles took away every quality chance with their active sticks in lanes. Once the Isles got on the board, the sails were ripped and it was on to the pit of misery. That said, any other quality chance we tried to produce in that game (there wasn't many) seemed to be blocked away into the netting above the glass. Haak is 100% right, there was no answer for it.

 

[MadDevil]

The defensive coverage certainly doesn't help, but sub .900 goaltending is not ALL on the defense. Although it's probably unfair to expect Kinkaid to be the same goalie he was for the last couple months last year when there is a much larger sample size of him being a league average backup goalie.

The question I have with the defensive system is do we have the personnel to play a different way? Most of our defensemen are geared more towards the offensive side and can get pretty easily manhandled in their own end. If we played a more conservative style, would it help, or would it highlight those weaknesses even more? I'm asking because I honestly don't know.

 

[devilsblood]

Blackwood started his season much like Kinkaid did (in fact better) but he has looked pretty below average after that stretch. Hopefully he is somewhere in the middle but towards the better spectrum moving forward. I think he is a legit talent but a few more games like the islanders or if the devils played Tampa- he might get broken too. The good thing is if he plays well hynes will have no hesitation going with him. I would consider a 2.8 gaa and .910 a good season on this team and something to build on for next year. I’m rooting for him because it’s a wasteland for goalie acquisitions out there and I don’t want to see @Bleedred’s heart explode.
.

Was last night really that bad of a game in terms of pressure put on Blackwood? 5 shots in the first period. A tip in front. A pp goal.

Chicago too, 2 of those goals were completely on Blackwood.

Now he's a young kid, so we shouldn't expect him to roll in and compete for the Vezina, but I'm not looking at the recent games as a sign that the system is tearing him down.

 

[devilsblood]

The defensive coverage certainly doesn't help, but sub .900 goaltending is not ALL on the defense. Although it's probably unfair to expect Kinkaid to be the same goalie he was for the last couple months last year when there is a much larger sample size of him being a league average backup goalie.

The question I have with the defensive system is do we have the personnel to play a different way? Most of our defensemen are geared more towards the offensive side and can get pretty easily manhandled in their own end. If we played a more conservative style, would it help, or would it highlight those weaknesses even more? I'm asking because I honestly don't know.

I'd say on a night to night basis we have 3 legit defense first d-men.

 

[haak84]

Was last night really that bad of a game in terms of pressure put on Blackwood? 5 shots in the first period. A tip in front. A pp goal.

Chicago too, 2 of those goals were completely on Blackwood.

Now he's a young kid, so we shouldn't expect him to roll in and compete for the Vezina, but I'm not looking at the recent games as a sign that the system is tearing him down.

Never said that and I don't think it will because look at the Devil's upcoming schedule and look at the schedule Kinkaid has faced since breaking down. Last night was also because the Islanders are not a high octane team. If the Devils brought that effort to Tampa it's a easy 7 goal game regardless of who you put in net.

I'm going to put some numbers together that no one will care about but Kinkaids last 15 games... 11 of them are against really good teams. Like best in the league. He is 3-1 in the against games the non-contenders and 1-8-2 against the really good teams. I don't think his play has been great and if he was a good starter he would step up but that is just brutal matchup night after night.

 

[MadDevil]

I'd say on a night to night basis we have 3 legit defense first d-men.

Greene, Lovejoy and Mueller/Santini I'm assuming? The problem is none of them are top pairing guys, and the only real top 4 LHD (and even that may be questionable) is Mueller. Their usage of Mueller this year has been about as bizarre as Santini's last year, so they've certainly not done themselves any favors there.

I guess the point I'm trying to get at is I don't know what system, with the defense currently constructed as it is, would be a huge improvement over what we have. We've had guys playing their off sides, guys playing more minutes than they should, etc. How much of that is simply a function of the personnel Hynes and Nas have been given?

 

[devilsblood]

Greene, Lovejoy and Mueller/Santini I'm assuming? The problem is none of them are top pairing guys, and the only real top 4 LHD (and even that may be questionable) is Mueller. Their usage of Mueller this year has been about as bizarre as Santini's last year, so they've certainly not done themselves any favors there.

I guess the point I'm trying to get at is I don't know what system, with the defense currently constructed as it is, would be a huge improvement over what we have. We've had guys playing their off sides, guys playing more minutes than they should, etc. How much of that is simply a function of the personnel Hynes and Nas have been given?

I'm completely in agreement that we need a top level d-man.

I also think the goalies are a bigger issue then the D, though the D personnel does have issues.

But I do wonder about this system. Do other teams deploy a similar style. D-men following fwd's up towards to point does seem odd, and I do question the benefits of it.

 

[MadDevil]

I question it as well, but there has to be a reason they play that way. My guess would be the idea is to pressure the opposition and not allow them to have possession as much because it would expose our issues at actually defending. The problem is it relies on everybody being on the same page, and that clearly has been a problem this year (and this extends to the forwards as well) and it ends up looking like a sideshow.

I also wonder how much the goaltending last year masked the same issues. People tend to forget that Cory put up a .920+ in November and December, and that Kinkaid did the same at the end of the season (he had a .928 save percentage in March/April and went 11-2-1). If we had even league average goaltending this year, how much different would things look?

 

[Bleedred]

Totally killed Schneider. Anyone who thinks Varlamov is the answer is pretty nutty. He'd get lit up here the same way.

I'll bet Cory could go to another team and win games.

Win games? Or win games and play well? He wouldn't play well anywhere else, he's cooked, trust me.

He might play well short term, he may even play well short term here. Remember Marty in 2014? That's Cory right now at the very best, he's possibly even worse.

 

[Bleedred]

The same thing could be said of Lehner: .905, .908 intermingled with .920s. He's nothing special, and that's playing on teams that allow LOTS of shots that bump up his SV%...so...

2012–13	Ottawa Senators	NHL	12	5	3	4	735	27	0	2.20	.936	2	0	1	49	2	0	2.45	.920
2013–14	Ottawa Senators	NHL	36	12	15	6	1942	99	1	3.06	.913	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014–15	Ottawa Senators	NHL	25	9	12	3	779	74	0	3.02	.905	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015–16	Buffalo Sabres	NHL	21	5	9	3	1155	48	1	2.47	.924	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015–16	Rochester Americans	AHL	3	1	2	0	179	10	0	3.36	.888	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016–17	Buffalo Sabres	NHL	59	23	26	8	3406	152	2	2.68	.920	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017–18	Buffalo Sabres	NHL	53	14	26	9	2853	143	3	3.01	.908	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Outside of 14-15 at last year, he's been a pretty good goalie most of those years and no worse than average.

He's already been open about having personal problems in his life and addiction last year.

 

[haak84]

I also wonder how much the goaltending last year masked the same issues. People tend to forget that Cory put up a .920+ in November and December, and that Kinkaid did the same at the end of the season (he had a .928 save percentage in March/April and went 11-2-1). If we had even league average goaltending this year, how much different would things look?

We finished at .910 save % which was actually worse than league average. I do think that last season is going to be the type of good goalie seasons we get with Hynes system since it is so momentum based. He rides the hot hand and then the momentum shifts or pressure on a goalie from his system gets in their head and he needs to shift to another goalie. I also think it's really hard for goalies to recover when they see 3 nights off then jump back into this gong show.

 

[haak84]

The league has figured something out on the Devils and our coaching staff and team have no answer. Since their fast start last year there have been too many games where the team is just dominated and can not get out of the funk. I haven't seen any adjustments since the start of last year. Makes me believe that they plan on riding this system and hoping the players develop to it's strengths. We're maybe just seeing the growing pains. The road record is brutal, I knew it would be bad because of the top heavy lineup and second line change but not 5 wins in 25 games.

 

[Bleedred]

It ain't the goalie, it's the system. Blackwood (sadly) ain't gonna be our savior.

If you don't think Blackwood is very likely at least better than Cory's cremated remains (the goalie you used to trash when he was actually still good) then I don't know what to tell you.

Kinkaid? We can't be sure yet. Cory has been reduced to ash at this point.

Kinkaid probably just can't play this kind of a work load and do well with it, at least not for multiple years.

You make out like there's no difference between goalies ever.

Schneider is a washed up goalie that's barely league caliber at best and possibly not league caliber anymore. Kinkaid is just a backup. Blackwood it's still too early in the game to say.

It's not remotely possible that Blackwood might be better than them?

 

[haak84]

If you don't think Blackwood is very likely at least better than Cory's cremated remains (the goalie you used to trash when he was actually still good) then I don't know what to tell you.

Kinkaid? We can't be sure yet. Cory has been reduced to ash at this point.

Kinkaid probably just can't play this kind of a work load and do well with it, at least not for multiple years.

You make out like there's no difference between goalies ever.

Schneider is a washed up goalie that's barely league caliber at best and possibly not league caliber anymore. Kinkaid is just a backup. Blackwood it's still too early in the game to say.

It's not remotely possible that Blackwood might be better than them?

11 of the last 15 games Kinkaid has played in have been against much better teams. The eye test, stats and record show that we are not on these teams level. I'm not going to severely knock a goalie when he plays behind a below average team against a good to very good team on a near nightly basis. Especially as that team is slumping and underachieving.

 

[Bleedred]

11 of the last 15 games Kinkaid has played in have been against much better teams. The eye test, stats and record show that we are not on these teams level. I'm not going to severely knock a goalie when he plays behind a below average team against a good to very good team on a near nightly basis. Especially as that team is slumping and underachieving.

You can say this about every goalie though. It should all level out in the end, although there are some teams and some goalies that face tougher teams over a full season, depending on how good their team's division is.

I think Kinkaid just either fluctuates from year to year or he's just struggling with the workload. He was playing fine until about the second week of December, then everything fell apart for him.

He had bad games before that, but not more than good games, and that's just went off the rails in the last 10 or 12 (don't quote me on a number, just guessing and not looking at his game log) games he's played.

One thing I'll agree with you on that I've seen you bring up to excuse him on is 3 on 3. He has played a lot of 3 on 3, he has allowed a lot of 3 on 3 goals (only one I think was a poor one?) and it's much easier to score on a 3 on 3/harder for a goalie there than any situation in a game.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I'm completely in agreement that we need a top level d-man.

I also think the goalies are a bigger issue then the D, though the D personnel does have issues.

But I do wonder about this system. Do other teams deploy a similar style. D-men following fwd's up towards to point does seem odd, and I do question the benefits of it.

It seems overly difficult for a weaker D Corp that would benefit from simplifying their game. Especially a slow group like ours.

Our forwards are not great at supporting when the D move away to chase the puck carrier either.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Trotz and his system were a big big reason Washington always seemed to give us extra fits over the years compared to other top teams, while we were able to successfully hang with the likes of Pitt at the same time.

It shouldn’t be that surprising he gets his new team to do the same. It’s one of those extra bad matchups on par was Julian’s Bruins.

 

[haak84]

You can say this about every goalie though. It should all level out in the end, although there are some teams and some goalies that face tougher teams over a full season, depending on how good their team's division is.

I think Kinkaid just either fluctuates from year to year or he's just struggling with the workload. He was playing fine until about the second week of December, then everything fell apart for him.

He had bad games before that, but not more than good games, and that's just went off the rails in the last 10 or 12 (don't quote me on a number, just guessing and not looking at his game log) games he's played.

One thing I'll agree with you on that I've seen you bring up to excuse him on is 3 on 3. He has played a lot of 3 on 3, he has allowed a lot of 3 on 3 goals (only one I think was a poor one?) and it's much easier to score on a 3 on 3/harder for a goalie there than any situation in a game.

well at least we agree on one thing. and if the devils won half those games he’d be closer to league average goaltending.

but you cant expect a goalie to be average or decent on a below average team when nearly 75% of their starts are against much much better competition and some of the top teams of the league and that has been the second half of kinkaids season.

 

[devilsblood]

It seems overly difficult for a weaker D Corp that would benefit from simplifying their game. Especially a slow group like ours.

Our forwards are not great at supporting when the D move away to chase the puck carrier either.

I think this is the crux of our breakdown issues, d-men following opposition, while fwd's do not cover.

I think it's more complicated then needed and I wonder about the benefits. A d-men pressing the point while a fwd covers down low does what? Leads to odd man rushes the other way that involves our d-men as opposed to an additional fwd?

I guess that makes sense if you have supremely talented d-men at all 6 spots. But otherwise you have Andy Greene trying to complete catch and shoots off his back hand at the goal mouth. That's a lot to ask of anything less then a high level offensive d-man.

 

[devilsblood]

I question it as well, but there has to be a reason they play that way. My guess would be the idea is to pressure the opposition and not allow them to have possession as much because it would expose our issues at actually defending. The problem is it relies on everybody being on the same page, and that clearly has been a problem this year (and this extends to the forwards as well) and it ends up looking like a sideshow.

Ya I think pressuring the puck is what it's all about. Aggressive defending, with the covering fwd is the supporting aspect of it.

Non traditional for sure, and involves more moving parts, trying to be uptempo.

More complicated then it needs to be? Too dependant on proper personnel?

Perhaps on both counts, but why was it successful last year, while so unsuccessful this year?