This isn't over

[DownFromNJ]

I hate to cite a shameless plug, but I just wrote this in my blog:

That makes no sense. Why? Well, assuming every single team spent every single extra cent that they could during every year of the CBA, we're talking about 450 million dollars (6 years).

Currently, the NHL players get 1.3 billion in salaries. Assuming they get paid for 1/3 a season (playoffs and 28 games), they will gain 430 million alone this short season. So in essence, the entire sum of their loss during this CBA by taking the owner's deal is equal to the money they would be losing by not playing this season.

Makes no sense, right? Of course, the NHL/PA have made no sense at all in the past few weeks. Personally, I would have taken that 42.5 million the second before Bettman's deadline last week.
Let's take a look at some other numbers. Let's assume that the teams do not spend the full 2.5 million extra per year. Let's but very, very liberal here. Let's assume half of the teams make it to the 45 million dollar cap. That is an extra 37.5 million dollars to the NHLPA per year, or 225 million over the course of the CBA. That is roughly half of what the players would be paid to play this season.

Ok, let's say that the players hold out until January 2006. The owners cave in. They give them something equivilant to their Dec. 9th offer. Let's say it manages to reduce salaries by only 10 percent (as opposed to the ~15% changes that cap offer would present). The players win, right?

Let's assume the owners still have the revenue to pay them that money for six years. The players gain about 65 million dollars per year if they are still paid from that pool of 1.3 billion (or in this case, 10% less). That is 390 million over 6 years. Not only is that less than what the players lose from canceling the final portion of this season, but now factor in another half season canceled. Again, drawing from the 1.3 million figure, another half season is worth 650 million.

Ok, let's really go out on a limb here. Let's assume that the players get their perfect little system back in January 2006. The owners's system would cost them 15% of that 1.3 billion per year, or 195 million per season. The total is 1.17 billion over six years. The cancel the rest of this season and another half, the cost is 1.08 billion. So, in a perfect world, waiting until December is worth about 90 million dollars if they can possibly restore 1) the old system in every way and b) league revenues to prior levels.

Blog

This is by no means a scientific assessment, but I don't find the numbers unreasonable. The NHLPA just doesn't make sense...

 

[Cully9]

Theory:

Players leaked $45M, season uncancelled stuff to pressure the owners to take it. Owners don't budge, players leave, and then tomorow (or Monday) come back with an even lower number.

Throw in the players inviting Wayne and Mario to the proceedings to put a little more pressure on the league...and you have the PA throwing a couple of legends under the bus, all in the name of getting more money.

The league seemed quite shocked that the PA arrived without another offer after all they had heard leading up to the meeting.

 

[Psycho Papa Joe]

From pieces together what I've gathered from all the various media outlets, we're talking about a 2.5 million dollar difference here.

Here are the facts:

1) NHL wants 42.5 million. A good sized group of owners are willing to go higher.
2) NHLPA wants 45 million. A good sized group of players are willing to go lower.


I think the NHLPA is waiting for the NHL to cave in to their 45 million dollar offer. The NHL broke off from the meeting and said those harsh comments today to force the NHLPA to cave.

It's all posturing. I don't think they will walk away this weekend without "uncanceling" the season.

You'd think there would be room for compromise here. IMO the NHL should accept the 45 million cap, but in turn any salaries between 42.5 and 45 million should be taxed at an extremely high percentage. Let's say 300-500%. That way both sides save face.

 

[greatlakeshab]

"You'd think there would be room for compromise here. IMO the NHL should accept the 45 million cap, but in turn any salaries between 42.5 and 45 million should be taxed at an extremely high percentage. Let's say 300-500%. That way both sides save face."

Now you're using logic that is inexcusable in these negotiations. You see the players want more and the owners want to pay less. Both want to laugh next year when they have half the revenues and salaries after the fans stop being fans. Now they will both point figures at each other and laugh that the other is getting less money DUMD and DUMBER the hockey movie of 2005

 

[Nielson81]

I still stick to my guns and say a deal will get done. On Wednesday I thought a deal would already be done by tonight....but I'll still say something is done within a couple days.

I'll be working tomorrow morning and make sure to post anything that comes over the BN News Wire all morning.

 

[ChiHawks468]

The Germans never bombed Pearl Harbour - the Japanese did....

I don't know what is worse; the repetitious use of this line or the correction made by someone who has no idea what it means. :lol

 

[SuperUnknown]

Well, I will admit to being incredibly disappointed and pessimistic right now, but I have maintained from the very start of this entire fiasco that if the season was actually cancelled and no games were played that the NHL could NOT survive the massive financial hit it will have to take.

They'll be fine, the ones that absorb most of the financial hit is the players. That's why the longest this lasts, the less the players will make. The owners on the other hand will be able to recover, no matter how long this lasts.

 

[Hockeycrazy3033]

It's not over.

Those of you who are still optimistic like me and can't see them destroying the league. Keep the faith.

 

[Los Tiburones]

you know I thought earlier today that a deal would be made and the season saved. It never made sense that a deal couldn't get done when the players association came off the no cap thing. I figured it was just a question of numbers. Today came and went, and then I realized something....

THEY ARE IRRATIONAL. THEY ARE MORONS. THEY AREN'T ACTING LIKE THIS IS A BUSINESS (never mind a sport that fans want to watch). THEY DONT CARE ABOUT FAN GOOD WILL AND THE DESTRUCTION OF THE LEAGUE. THEY DONT CARE ABOUT LOSING ESPN. THEY DONT CARE ABOUT ANYTHING BUT DESTROYING EACH OTHER. NO DEAL WILL BE MADE EVER, BECAUSE NEITHER SIDE WANTS TO HAVE TO SAY THAT THEY LOST THE GREAT LABOR WAR OF 2004-2005. TOTALLY PATHETICALLY STUPID.

You know what, I don't care anymore, if they don't care enough to make this work. Take the NHL shove it down the drain. I'm not going to a game anymore. I'm not going to watch it on TV. I'll go to college hockey games. Maybe an AHL game or two. Sports is about being entertained and having a rooting interest. The rooting interest is just dead for me, all of them are just S****s.

 

[Brindfan]

Sorry to be a wet blanket, but it is over.

 

[Hedberg]

It's not over.

Those of you who are still optimistic like me and can't see them destroying the league. Keep the faith.

I'm keeping the faith. This deal will get done tomorrow and the season will start in March. This is just posturing today. I will not believe it is dead untill Tuesday!
For all we know, The owners will come back tomorrow with a 45 million dollar cap and the players accept. Or the player accept the 42 million dollar cap.
If you believe Eklund (which I don't) 5 owners held up the deal. Maybe Gary, Wayne, Mario, and Bill are trying to convince these owners to go with a 45 million dollar cap (of money they don't need to accept)
Hopefully this get's done

 

[GreenBud]

The Germans never bombed Pearl Harbour - the Japanese did....

Whenever I see a reply like this to Belushi's line I just laugh at the poster. Then I realize I just might be getting old.

 

[xtra]

Ville Neimeimen said he was to be back in NA on tuesday according to the quote. so give it until tuesday. 99.9999% of me says that they won't come to a deal but there is still that faint glimmer of hope.

 

[Brindfan]

Whenever I see a reply like this to Belushi's line I just laugh at the poster. Then I realize I just might be getting old.

It just means that like myself. You got to see guys like LaFleur, Bossy, Gretzky, Orr, Dryden, Makita, Parent, both Espositos, Clarke, Trottier, Coffey, Bourque, and so many other hall of famers, play this wonderful game.

 

[CDRW62]

I'm keeping the faith. This deal will get done tomorrow and the season will start in March. This is just posturing today. I will not believe it is dead untill Tuesday!

LMAO! I can't believe the delusional peeps on this board. What part of "there is no deal, the season is canceled" do y'all not understand????? Then peeps start rumors like "well, I heard that an owner and a player are both on the same Delta flight, maybe they'll come to an agreement there and then they'll play a 12 game season". LMAO. The best rumor I actually heard from a so-called "expert" talking-head on ESPN was that now the owners will shift their focus to having an agreement done by May in order to keep Season Ticket holders signed up for next year. Yeah, I'm sure the players see the same urgency in THAT deadline. LMAO. There won't be a deal come October and the death watch will begin once again for next deason. Give it a REST folks! Basketball season is going strong and Baseball spring training is starting. WHO NEEDS HOCKEY NOW!

 

[DevilFisch]

There won't be a deal come October and the death watch will begin once again for next deason. Give it a REST folks! Basketball season is going strong and Baseball spring training is starting. WHO NEEDS HOCKEY NOW!

I don't know, maybe...HOCKEY FANS?

I will not happily sit here and watch the New Jersey Nets struggle towards a 0.500 record; and roll my eyes at the constant and inane chatter of the most popular boring sport in the world.

I miss the NHL. I want it to come back even in a shortened form. If only to draw some excitement for a full season next season. If only to gain some momentum. I want to sit at home and watch the Devils dominating other teams on Fox Sports NY again. I want the top level of professional hockey to return.

And so, I'm optimistic. Naive? Yes. Hopeless? Yes. Pathetic? Yes. But still optimistic.

 

[Hockeycrazy3033]

I'm keeping the faith. This deal will get done tomorrow and the season will start in March. This is just posturing today. I will not believe it is dead untill Tuesday!
For all we know, The owners will come back tomorrow with a 45 million dollar cap and the players accept. Or the player accept the 42 million dollar cap.
If you believe Eklund (which I don't) 5 owners held up the deal. Maybe Gary, Wayne, Mario, and Bill are trying to convince these owners to go with a 45 million dollar cap (of money they don't need to accept)
Hopefully this get's done

right on! thats the spirit!

 

[Hockeycrazy3033]

Ville Neimeimen said he was to be back in NA on tuesday according to the quote. so give it until tuesday. 99.9999% of me says that they won't come to a deal but there is still that faint glimmer of hope.

what quote?

 

[xtra]

from another thread

since i can't read finnish i am trusting the poster:


http://www.hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=130725

 

[futurcorerock]

I'm keeping the faith. This deal will get done tomorrow and the season will start in March. This is just posturing today. I will not believe it is dead untill Tuesday!
For all we know, The owners will come back tomorrow with a 45 million dollar cap and the players accept. Or the player accept the 42 million dollar cap.
If you believe Eklund (which I don't) 5 owners held up the deal. Maybe Gary, Wayne, Mario, and Bill are trying to convince these owners to go with a 45 million dollar cap (of money they don't need to accept)
Hopefully this get's done

I could use your support over on the "Season Over? not quite..." thread

There are too many inconsistencies for it to be over.

Somebody mentioned that Brian Burke made some optimistic comments when he was interviewd today, though I saw no thread for it... can anyone summarize?

 

[Hockeycrazy3033]

I could use your support over on the "Season Over? not quite..." thread

There are too many inconsistencies for it to be over.

Somebody mentioned that Brian Burke made some optimistic comments when he was interviewd today, though I saw no thread for it... can anyone summarize?

I agree! something will get done, it HAS to!

Keep the faith!

 

[LuckyLUC20]

I don't think I have any optimism left after the last 24 hours.

 

[futurcorerock]

I agree! something will get done, it HAS to!

Keep the faith!

You guys keep forgetting that there's too much at risk to kill this deal.

ESPN pulling the plug was something that was a bit out of left field.

 

[Cully9]

I think it's the other way around.
Several owners leaked the story. Several owners didn't want this season cancelled.
Others are content to let hockey whither and die.

Wasn't the Hockey News quoting player sources when they "broke" the story?

http://146.145.120.3/default.asp?c=hockeynews&page=nhl/news/adn3759337.htm

The Hockey News, quoting an anonymous player close to the negotiations, reported Friday evening that the sides have already reached an agreement in principle on a collective bargaining agreement that includes a salary cap of $45 million.

When asked by The Hockey News if it was possible a deal would not get done, the source responded, "not that I can see. I couldn't possibly imagine the idea that somebody is going to try to make a name for themselves in the last minute here."

Sure sounds like a player leak to me...

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Face it people, season is toast. No one would risk yanking everyone else around yet another time. They made their final shot, then one more. If they still were negotiating they would have said 'meeting again tomorrow' instead of releasing dueling recrimination press releases. I see no purpose if they were going to go back to serious negotiations to play these games otherwise. It is officially done. I only hope that they have enough sense to step back and hammer something out before September, but I am doubtful. This will likely have to play all the way out through replacement players and the complete breaking of the union.