Speculation: This 20-21 Penguins team misses the playoffs...

Discussion in 'Pittsburgh Penguins' started by ObsessedCreative, Oct 26, 2020.

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  1. ziggyjoe212 Registered User

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    I disagree. After 3 straight early playoff exits, Sid and (arguably) Geno past their prime, the cup is no longer the expectation. I don't think anyone views them as a true contender on the level of Tampa or Boston. I think the Pens are a notch below that. A playoff team that can contend.

    After the last 2 playoffs, I'd be happy to reach the 2nd round.
     
  2. ColePens RIP parabola & Fugu

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    I disagree. But we probably agree in a way. Even during the x-gen years when that puck dropped and we were all 0-0-0, the expectation is the Cup damn well knowing we were a longer than long shot. I've just seen so much crazy in sports that until we are out of it, I put aside my rational opinion and let escapism take over for pure enjoyment.

    But ultimately I'm not dumb and know what the likely result is. But even if it's 1%... i've seen crazy things happen in sports, poker, life, etc.
     
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  3. Tom Hanks Registered User

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    Except for being in the final 16 teams of course ;)
     
  4. SEALBound Fancy Gina...mmmmm...

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    Disagree. You make the playoffs, you have a chance. Tampa and Boston are 100% beatable as proven this year and last (last - Tampa and Boston, this Boston only. Yes I am aware that Tampa won a cup but I don't think they will be getting better this off season).

    Winning the cup has a lot to do with a decent team coming together at the right time and having the right role players excel.
     
  5. Shockmaster Registered User

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    If the Penguins end up being in the Central Division for 2021, that increases their chances of making the playoffs.
     
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  6. Zirakzigil Registered User

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    I think playoff success now greatly depends on overall team health. With Sid and Geno now in the back half of their careers, they are not going to be dragging this team deep into the playoffs. I firmly believe we have the offensive depth to do damage in the playoffs, defense and goal tending is the wildcard. This season was a complete writeoff due to covid. Cant really judge the team for a massive break and lack of ability for some to keep in game shape and game speed.
     
  7. CrosbyMalkin Registered User

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    I agree with this. If the Pens don't make the playoffs it will be due to goaltending.

    I do think this team will make the playoffs easily. Almost all the top teams lost more than they gained and I believe we are better this year. Also if we could finish 7th in the NHL with all those major injuries to our top players and many others plus sub par goaltending from our starting goaltender for much of the year we should be fine.

    For those predicting this gloom and doom let's go through each spot and tell me how this team is not a net positive from the team that we started with last season. Let's start with the positive and what I think we can all agree on.

    Guentzel-Crosby-Kapanen this season over Guentzel-Crosby-Simon. I think everyone agrees the top line is better and hopefully will not have Crosby and Guentzel miss over half the season again. Simon's best season 8 goals and 28 points and that is playing with Crosby for much of that. Kapanen 20 goal and 40+ point season with more upside to come.

    Zucker-Malkin-Rust this season over Galchenyk-Malkin-Rust last year. I think we can all pretty much agree we have a nice improvement on this line also.

    ZAR/Sceviour-Blueger-Tanev this season or whoever gets that LW spot vs ZAR-Blueger-Tanev which I would argue is still a plus in the right direction with Blueger one year more developed.

    So the only forward line we have an argument about is the 3rd line. Unfortunately last year we didn't have much of one due to Bjugstad out all season but 10 games and McCann having to move up to Center the 2nd line due to one of Crosby and Malkin out the whole season. The 4th line became our 3rd line last year so I don't think it will be hard to improve upon this line. It shouldn't be hard to improve on that 3rd line in the playoffs either because Marleau was worthless and the combination of him with Hornqvist and his plodding style of play was a terrible fit for McCann. So while some might argue that McCann-Jankowski-Poulin or at worst someone like a Rodriguez could still not be any worse than what we got out of that line last year. Everyone is pointing to Jankowski having a bad year without looking at his terrible linemates and looking at his good production the rest of his career. I think Poulin or some other forward beats out Rodriguez but even Rodriguez has had NHL success with 7 goals and 25 points in 48 games in 2018 which is a 40+ point pace. In 2019 Rodriguez had 9 goals and 29 points in 74 games. Which still has him at 30+ pace. Either of those season's would of been fine as a 3rd line winger. Last year wasn't great but obviously the potential to be a decent 3rd line winger is there. Considering we had Simon on the top line who's best season is less goals and points than Rodriguez we could survive a worst case scenario of Rodriguez on that 3rd line. So while this line has some proving to do it really can't have less production than what we had last year from that line that was mostly filled by players like Lafferty, Blandisi, Agozzino, Angello, and whoever else we put on that line to make that line. Like I said for most of the year this line really was our 4th line due to injuries. So I would argue that Pens have a very strong shot to improve on this line but will see. Can't get any worse production for sure. For argument sake all let people say we are worse but I disagree. So 3 out of 4 lines better.

    Defense we can all agree Schultz was terrible and in my opinion our worst defenseman last year. JJ was our next worst defenseman and both are gone. Matheson and Ceci might not be perfect but are better than what they are replacing and that is a fact that I will not debate. Marino and Pettersson are both young and still developing and should only be getting better. Dumoulin missed more than half the season and was playing hurt. So the top 4 should get even better. The defense is better and no logical person can deny that. I also love the depth with Riikola, POJ, Ruhwedel, and Maniscalco as backups.

    Goalie is the one spot I am worried about. Murray had a bad year and that type of stats should not be hard to duplicate but will Jarry have as good a year is my question. I think he will be good enough that this team will easily make the playoffs but I think goal is our biggest question mark going into the season. Pens will be fine at forward.
     
  8. ObsessedCreative KILLER PARTIES, ALMOST KILLED ME!

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    BUMPPPPPPPPPPPP LOLz this is going to be so bad :laugh:
     
  9. Big Friggin Dummy Registered User

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    It was very brave and controversial to guess a team that's won 1 playoff game and looked far worse than their record suggests in recent seasons may miss the playoffs. :laugh:

    But yeah, adding Boston to an already brutal division is no bueno. Any lengthy injury to a major player or underperformances by integral guys like Jarry or Marino is a death sentence in a shortened season.
     
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  10. ChrisKuuuunitz 4 time champ

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    I hate hockey and I'm never watching this team again, I say it every year
     
  11. Honour Over Glory North Division is AHL Caliber

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    I mean, they literally bought out JJ.
     
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  12. Mario_is_BACK!! ACK! ACK ACK! ACK!!!

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    lotta people seem in denial tho
     
  13. Andy99 Registered User

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    A lotta people also think JR did a good job finding players for the bottom six and that our D is going to be better...lol....there’s a lot of hopes and dreams among the fan base but why does everyone count on Rust having another career year shooting %, Jake and Dumo being the same players after returning from significant injuries, all the new players having career years with the Pens, Reirden turning around all of our D men, Jarry and DeSmith holding down the fort to an exceptional degree etc? Folks, it ain’t all gonna happen!
     
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  14. ziggyjoe212 Registered User

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    You would have to be pretty naive to think that the Pens are a legit cup contendor. They're more of a 4-8 seed playoff team who will HOPEFULLY win more than 1 playoff game come May.

    Although we're in a pretty tough division so who's to say we're a lock for the playoffs anyway.
     
  15. Bumpus Shhhhh...

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    [​IMG]

    :laugh:
     
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  16. Riikolas Revenge Registered User

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    It's because Ceci and Matheson are unlikely to be worse than JJ and Schultz. At the absolute worst, I see a push there.
    Rust will not have a repeat performance, true. But that's why Zucker and Kapanen are here to help now, to mitigate those losses in production.

    Do you really expect Sid to not be better than last year, with these wingers and what he was dealing with health-wise? Think we know better than to doubt him after all these years.

    The goalies just need to be better than Murray last year, which is very realistic. He was goddamn awful.

    I do expect Reirden to improve the PP though, yes. Recchi set a very low bar. And I also believe in Vellucci bringing more accountability to the forward group, particularly in big games.

    There's also unforeseen positives that can occur. It's not all just waiting for drop-offs. Jankowski may chip in more goals than we expect, like he did in Calgary. Riikola may finally solidify his spot and strengthen the bottom pair. Joseph may be brilliant in camp and force their hand. Tanev and Blueger could up their production with more offensive usage under a new assistant coach. Pettersson could rediscover his first year form with us. Etc...

    I'll agree with the concern over Dumoulin. He didn't seem right.
    Think Guentzel will be fine though. His movement looked normal to me. He just seemed to be a few steps behind where he normally is mentally. Rusty.
     
  17. BHD Thems the maths

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    I'm not going to say they miss the playoffs. However, there is less runway for them.

    A) They're only 2/3 of a normal reg. season and B) those games will based in the most competitive division in the league. This squad can make the playoffs, but they have to treat every game like the playoffs.
     
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2020
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  18. JTG Registered User

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    This team does have a 2015 feel to it. There were pieces, but the fit was unknown. There were also some guys that needed to take on different roles. I'm actually intrigued by this team. I still think we could use some more scoring pop in the bottom 6. The defense has potential to be really good, but it depends on a lot of things. Jarry needs to take a step forward. How will DeSmith do being back up with the big club?

    The have to find a way to fix the PP. It will be the same guys working the unit and we cannot have similar results.
     
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  19. Big Friggin Dummy Registered User

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    Said it in the other thread but this team has that "everything has to go right" aspect more so than others. Jarry can't stumble. Marino can't stumble. Sully can't have stretches of forcing shit that doesn't work due to his arrogance and stubborn, almost spiteful nature. Can't really handle our typical Sid/Geno/Letang/Jake lengthy absences.

    A lot has to go right for this team to make the playoffs, let alone make noise in the post season. I still think we'll make the playoffs because that's just what this organization does--it doesn't have any bearing on just how good or bad they are, they just simply make it. We'll get trashed in the first round as per usual, but y'know.
     
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  20. Andy99 Registered User

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    Here’s someone else’s take...injuries will play a key factor too...I think Philly is a little better than given credit for and have less question marks than the Pens, so I’d probably flip those teams rn in these rankings...

    Where will the Pens finish in the Eastern Division?
     
  21. Pens x Registered User

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    Another person that criticized our ragtag bottom six, but many on this site say it’s fine. Hmmmmm.

    “But if injuries set in — and we know they always seem to set in for this team — it might be a scary picture for a team that’s counting on a bunch of reclamation projects on the bottom end of the lineup.”

    -You CAN put lipstick on a pig.
    Jimbo Rutherford
     
  22. Big Friggin Dummy Registered User

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    Oh
     
  23. Pens x Registered User

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    Old garbage out, new garbage in
     
  24. Big Friggin Dummy Registered User

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  25. WheresRamziAbid Registered User

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    The D will be better. Even if Matheson and Ceci are exactly as bad as they were last year thats still very likely an improvement. Which sounds f’ing crazy but equally true. Thats just how bad JMFJ and Schultzs corpse were last year.


    As far as the bottom six its hard to tell as we dont even know whos going to be in it and a handful have a higher variance than most bottom 6ers.

    i mean the 3rd line alone could range from...

    Top prospect that comes in seamlessly (poulin pr maybe even oconnor), 1st half McCann and rodriguez that was pacing 30 points with good underlying numbers from 2-3 years ago OR
    2nd half mccann, last years Jankowski and last years Rodriguez.

    one version is a dangerous offensive unit that has defensive upside as well. And the other is a units thats has solid to good defensive players that couldn't score on sorority row pledge night. Very high variance for a 3rd line
     
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