Blue Jays Discussion: Things happening this winter! (Jays sign Ryu, Shaw)

[The Nemesis]

carry on

Previous thread: Blue Jays Discussion: - The long, slow march of a winter off-season

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[LeafsOHLRangers98]

bring back the popcorn and parrot if the price is right.

 

[rojac]

So, those who question the Jays acquiring Price because it would help Boston out, is it your belief that if the Jays pass on acquiring Price then no other team will make such a deal? Personally, I have little doubt that the Sox will be able to move Price, so if Shapiro, Atkins, and company think that getting Price will help the Jays, why not?

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

So, those who question the Jays acquiring Price because it would help Boston out, is it your belief that if the Jays pass on acquiring Price then no other team will make such a deal? Personally, I have little doubt that the Sox will be able to move Price, so if Shapiro, Atkins, and company think that getting Price will help the Jays, why not?

He wasn't super terrible last year, was great in 2017, and lights out when he played with us in 2015 and seemed to enjoy it here a lot more than he has in Boston, especially with the media.

If we aren't paying him $20M+ then I don't see why not

 

[Discoverer]

I don't understand how people are still looking at this as "Don't help Boston out!" as if they think moving Price isn't going to hurt Boston. They're either giving up significant assets (which they can't really afford to do) or retaining significant salary (which seems way more likely to me) or some combination.

I mean... Boston's rotation depth is already really, really terrible. If they pay $15 million per year for nothing instead of $32 million per year for Price, are they really in a better situation?

(For the record, I think Betts reaches free agency regardless of how much payroll space Boston opens up.)

 

[landy92mack29]

My lack of wanting Price is to not get stuck with a aging pitcher whose best days are behind him than helping out Boston. As I said the only way I take him on is if Benintendi is coming with him.

 

[Kurtz]

I don't understand how people are still looking at this as "Don't help Boston out!" as if they think moving Price isn't going to hurt Boston. They're either giving up significant assets (which they can't really afford to do) or retaining significant salary (which seems way more likely to me) or some combination.

I mean... Boston's rotation depth is already really, really terrible. If they pay $15 million per year for nothing instead of $32 million per year for Price, are they really in a better situation?

(For the record, I think Betts reaches free agency regardless of how much payroll space Boston opens up.)

Yea. If it's a net positive for the Jays, who cares if it helps Boston a little? We're not competing with Boston next year - if we make a miraculous run, it'll be the Yankees and Rays standing in our way.

Boston needs a full rebuild anyway - they'll probably just trade Betts.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

My lack of wanting Price is to not get stuck with a aging pitcher whose best days are behind him than helping out Boston. As I said the only way I take him on is if Benintendi is coming with him.

Even as an aging pitcher coming off his worst season, he was still better than anything we had after Shoemaker last year.

If he bounces back at all he would help tremendously and is a great teammate. If the wheels completely fall off then we eat it I guess but I think he could still have a few more decent seasons in him.

If the Red Sox pay at least half I take him in a heartbeat.

 

[Kiwi]

My lack of wanting Price is to not get stuck with a aging pitcher whose best days are behind him than helping out Boston. As I said the only way I take him on is if Benintendi is coming with him.

I'd pay every last dollar of his remaining contract if he had Benintendi attached to him

He's a great piece to build around

 

[as Pure as Evil]

If the sweeteners are delicious then sure but gotta have somw nice appetizers to take that contract

Would be looking for a similar deal as we got with liriano but with better or higher rates prospectz

 

[Garlando]

There's a steady decline going on with Price...

 

[The Nemesis]

I don't understand how people are still looking at this as "Don't help Boston out!" as if they think moving Price isn't going to hurt Boston. They're either giving up significant assets (which they can't really afford to do) or retaining significant salary (which seems way more likely to me) or some combination.

I mean... Boston's rotation depth is already really, really terrible. If they pay $15 million per year for nothing instead of $32 million per year for Price, are they really in a better situation?

(For the record, I think Betts reaches free agency regardless of how much payroll space Boston opens up.)

My thing is that I'm not cool with helping Boston out if the Jays don't get a premium for doing so, but that I don't think the Red Sox would go that route if they can deal with someone else outside of their division. I'd want Benintendi, but there's no way in hell the Sox would even entertain that sort of offer regardless of how much the acquiring team is willing to eat on Price's contract. And I feel like they would probably pay more to some basement team in the NL or even in another AL division rather than the Jays. So it comes down to a) I would want value the Sox likely won't provide b) I wouldn't want the value that the Sox would be willing to offer, and c) I would prefer that if the Sox are to get out from under the Price albatross it cost them as much as is humanely possible.

I also don't have any real hopes of a bounceback for him. He's gonna be 35 by the middle of next season, has an ungodly number of miles on his arm, and has downgraded from being a 'stuff' pitcher to a smoke and mirrors one. He's also barely averaged like 115 innings a season in the last 3 years and is steadily losing ticks on his FB velocity. He's going to get worse and the team isn't going to get anything of value in exchange for the 'privilege' of taking the burden of his salary on from now until 2022. For as much as we want to say "if the Jays aren't spending the money on anything useful this year, why not do something value-generating with it now?" I don't want $15-30m of dead weight money on the books for 2021 and 2022 when the team legit would need that budget if they're supposed to be actually contending.

EDIT: was missing a key "don't" at the start. That would've changed the whole appearance of my post.

 

[phillipmike]

Just need a catcher.

 

[LeafChief]

I'll be honest, if the Jays add EE and Price to Roark and Shaw I'll be pretty excited about the Jays again. Not expecting anything but it will be fun to watch again in addition to the young kids.

 

[onlygotmygrade10]

I would expect Boston first try to trade him to the National League. Any trade they make is going to make them a worse team, may as well go to someone they don't need to compete with for a playoff spot

 

[The Nemesis]

Encarnacion would be nice. Shaw can't hit lefties but can play 1st (and a bunch of other positions). Encarnacion can hit lefties (his power spikes vs LHP) and can't play much 1B. Rowdy can stay on the farm and get his reps in while being an injury replacement, and you still have the ability to use the DH and occasionally 1B positions to rotate through the likes of Vlad and Biggio and whoever when you need to give them a partial rest.

I've already said my piece on Price. I just don't see a way the stars align in a sensible way for the Jays there. They wouldn't get a Benintendi-level sweetener, wouldn't get enough value out of whatever iffy or redundant prospects the Sox would be willing to toss in, and while it might not matter this year, even a $15m Price is likely to be a boat anchor at some point between now and 2022.

 

[Discoverer]

Encarnacion would be nice. Shaw can't hit lefties but can play 1st (and a bunch of other positions). Encarnacion can hit lefties (his power spikes vs LHP) and can't play much 1B. Rowdy can stay on the farm and get his reps in while being an injury replacement, and you still have the ability to use the DH and occasionally 1B positions to rotate through the likes of Vlad and Biggio and whoever when you need to give them a partial rest.

I've already said my piece on Price. I just don't see a way the stars align in a sensible way for the Jays there. They wouldn't get a Benintendi-level sweetener, wouldn't get enough value out of whatever iffy or redundant prospects the Sox would be willing to toss in, and while it might not matter this year, even a $15m Price is likely to be a boat anchor at some point between now and 2022.

If other teams also see $15 million per as too much risk, maybe his value is even lower and Boston will have to pitch in even more to dump him.

I don't think it's unreasonable to think you'll get roughly a back-end starter each of the next three years.

 

[trellaine201]

I’m fine with Price but isn’t he broken or in the midst of being broken. I’d be concerned with his 357 IP in the past 3 years and over 2000 IP in the majors.

he would have to come quite cheap and w/ one good player off their roster IMO.

 

[as Pure as Evil]

i will say seeing all the lefties with power in the line up sure is a different look.
all have power to spare

biggio
rowdy
shaw
maguire
fisher
mack

for the most part i still think first base will be rowdy's to lose. i was looking for a comparison tool but was unable to find one.(rowdy vs shaw) but barring the large discrepency in r.b.i's and games over the first 2 years , seems like rowdy is headed in the right direction.

i like how this front office is doing it.
1-3 year deals

lets see what we have internally before we replace them and make them expendable

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

There's a steady decline going on with Price...

As long as he doesn't dramatically decline this year he's still an average to slightly above average pitcher.

He was dominant, now he's just okay, but still better than most of our other options. As long as Boston eats most of the money I'll take it.

 

[Kurtz]

As long as he doesn't dramatically decline this year he's still an average to slightly above average pitcher.

He was dominant, now he's just okay, but still better than most of our other options. As long as Boston eats most of the money I'll take it.

Yep. What is an above-average starter worth on the UFA market? We just paid $12 to Roark, and we'll be happy if he has an average season. Price at $15-18 seems like pretty good value.

 

[OVO16]

If we can get Jackie Bradley JR along with price...I'd be ecstatic

 

[Ricky Bobby]

If Price were a free agent his value would be around what Kuechel got for the guaranteed 3 year term portion of his deal which is 55.5M. The argument could be made he's slightly less valuable or slightly more valuable so for arguments sake Price is worth 50M to 60M.

With Price owed 96M that still leaves anywhere from 36M to 46M in bad money on the deal.

 

[Discoverer]

Yep. What is an above-average starter worth on the UFA market? We just paid $12 to Roark, and we'll be happy if he has an average season. Price at $15-18 seems like pretty good value.

At that cost I think Price is, at best, break-even value. If you want to compare him to Roark, you also have to consider that he's already a couple years older, has an extra year on his deal, has shown plenty of decline recently, and hasn't been healthy the last three years. His upside is higher, but there's a whoooole lot of risk.

Boston chipping in $50 million of value would get me interested, though.

 

[The Nemesis]

I forgot to mention earlier about Shaw: I'm on board with his signing because I figure that it's more likely he's the guy from prior to last year who's pretty damn good than he's now the guy who he suddenly was last season. His plate discipline #s seem to show that out of nowhere he just suddenly stopped being able to make contact last season. That's a pretty big aberration that I expect him to be able to correct.

If other teams also see $15 million per as too much risk, maybe his value is even lower and Boston will have to pitch in even more to dump him.

I don't think it's unreasonable to think you'll get roughly a back-end starter each of the next three years.

Problem is that it's equally reasonable to think that you might get <200IP total where he implodes to the point of either being hurt or useless. He can't have a lot of tread left on his tires and every season looks like him desperately trying to beat back the encroaching ravages of age and mileage. He's 35 with over 2000 regular season innings and another 100 playoff innings. He also had wrist surgery at the end of September and even if things "went well" who's to say what he's like coming back from that given that he's already dropped a couple of MPH off his fastball in the last couple seasons and his pitch values are royally inconsistent over the last couple years.

Watching him he simply doesn't look like the same guy anymore. More than ever it's like he has to walk a tightrope to be effective. I wouldn't be interested in paying big money for something that has a not-insignificant chance of blowing up in the team's face at any given point. Not unless there's something seriously valuable coming back to offset that risk.