Speculation: Theory about odd D-Pairings tonight

Judas Tavares

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Feb 9, 2007
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Not sure if this has been mentioned. But since Muzzin got here, things have been better and I do love the Muzzin-Rielly pair. But, starting with the Ottawa game, the top pair started to get leaky. Especially Rielly. First 3 games, everything was basically perfect. But since the Ottawa game, Rielly has not been himself. I’m fine with the pairs switching up if it means Rielly can go back to the left and we separate Gardsev, that pair gives me heart problems. If it also means more Hainsey, that also kinda sucks.
 

JT AM da real deal

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Oct 4, 2018
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Which defenders do we have who can get back to a dumped in puck, withstand the forechecker's hit while maintaining puck control?

Rielly - can get back to puck first but easily knocked over on hits in Boston series last playoffs
Hainsey - can't get back to puck quick enough
Gards - finds a way to get beat to the puck by the forechecker if it looks like a close race and finds ways really to not get hit but can get it out generally if he has room
Dermott - can get back to puck first and absorb hit but was not strong enough last playoffs to maintain puck possession (Hopeful he is a little stronger this year)
Z - can get back to puck first but easily knocked over on hits in Boston series last playoffs
Muzzy - we don't know yet but history with Kings says he is only one we have who has done it before against bigger men in western conference

When I honestly look at that 1 critical issue of defense it makes me think we need 1 more guy who can handle that job.
 

Halla

Registered User
Jan 28, 2016
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anyone else really hoping Dubas moves a package of Zaitsev+ Brown + picks or prospects to get a top 4 RHD?
Tanev, Pesce, or Parayko would be nice. Tanev might be the cheapest and wouldnt cost a Kap/Johnsson


Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Marleau-Matthews-Nylander
Johnsson-Kadri-Kapanen
Moore-Goat-Bracco

Rielly-Tanev
Muzzin-Dermott
Rosen-Ozhiganov

Andersen
Sparks

Kap/Johnsson on a 1 year bridge, them give em Marleaus money when his contract is up
 

therealkoho

Him/Leaf/fan
Jul 10, 2009
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the Prior
Zaitsev’s offense that rookie came from secondary assists and the PP.

Folks really exaggerate how good he was, especially at even strength

it really doesn't matter where the points come from, I was not exaggerating how good he was, only that he played well enough that they saw him as a long term solution in the second pair

he hasn't suddenly forgot how to hockey and season long flukes don't happen
 

therealkoho

Him/Leaf/fan
Jul 10, 2009
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the Prior
anyone else really hoping Dubas moves a package of Zaitsev+ Brown + picks or prospects to get a top 4 RHD?
Tanev, Pesce, or Parayko would be nice. Tanev might be the cheapest and wouldnt cost a Kap/Johnsson


Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Marleau-Matthews-Nylander
Johnsson-Kadri-Kapanen
Moore-Goat-Bracco

Rielly-Tanev
Muzzin-Dermott
Rosen-Ozhiganov

Andersen
Sparks

Kap/Johnsson on a 1 year bridge, them give em Marleaus money when his contract is up
where Jake the mistake?
 

therealkoho

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Jul 10, 2009
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I did a rough chart of Jakes passing prowess last night, they were not unlike results I had for him before

D-Zone 9 pass attempts 4 connected 2 went for icing 3 were misses

OZone 5/5 2 pass attempts 1 miss 1 connected

OZone PP 8 pass attempts 6 connected(includes tip goal) 2 misses(both led to clears)
 

Nithoniniel

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Sep 7, 2012
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he played well enough that they saw him as a long term solution in the second pair
Sure. At one point, we also thought Clarkson was playing well enough to be a gritty top six scorer for us. Just because someone thought the contract was good enough at one point doesn't mean the reason was good.

Zaitsev was not good his rookie season. He got absolutely filled in at even strength, was not a difference maker on the PK, and put up a decent amount of points due to being on one of the league's strongest PP's that year with Nylander and Matthews.
 

therealkoho

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Jul 10, 2009
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the Prior
Sure. At one point, we also thought Clarkson was playing well enough to be a gritty top six scorer for us. Just because someone thought the contract was good enough at one point doesn't mean the reason was good.

Zaitsev was not good his rookie season. He got absolutely filled in at even strength, was not a difference maker on the PK, and put up a decent amount of points due to being on one of the league's strongest PP's that year with Nylander and Matthews.

i was never in favour of handing that contract to Clarkson, and was only lukewarm to him as a player

you can keep up the false narrative all you'd like, as of now i'm through with this convo, it's obvious you some irrational feelings about Zaitsev
 

Nithoniniel

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Sep 7, 2012
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i was never in favour of handing that contract to Clarkson, and was only lukewarm to him as a player

you can keep up the false narrative all you'd like, as of now i'm through with this convo, it's obvious you some irrational feelings about Zaitsev
I'm irrational by saying that just because he got a big contract doesn't mean he deserved it? Man must be rough for you to be on a forum if that's beyond what you can handle.
 

Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
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it really doesn't matter where the points come from, I was not exaggerating how good he was, only that he played well enough that they saw him as a long term solution in the second pair

he hasn't suddenly forgot how to hockey and season long flukes don't happen

Or the person who made that decision made a mistake...
 

therealkoho

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Jul 10, 2009
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I'm irrational by saying that just because he got a big contract doesn't mean he deserved it? Man must be rough for you to be on a forum if that's beyond what you can handle.

you couldn't be more wrong, or was this a stab at irony?

Or the person who made that decision made a mistake...

possibly, the only flaw in that is that it isn't a one person decision and I can't see the Pres/GM/head of scouting/player development and coaching staff all being so wrong about a guy they actually actively scouted for two years
 

Nithoniniel

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Sep 7, 2012
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you couldn't be more wrong, or was this a stab at irony?
I'm glad to hear it.

possibly, the only flaw in that is that it isn't a one person decision and I can't see the Pres/GM/head of scouting/player development and coaching staff all being so wrong about a guy they actually actively scouted for two years
That's not out of the ordinary, and management is wrong on guys they sign all the time.
 

Nithoniniel

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Sep 7, 2012
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so then it is possible that Gardiner's erratic play has effected Zaitsev in a negative way
Then we're back to talking about how Zaitsev has been bad even without Jake. When he played with Rielly, the two of them struggled mightily in pretty much every measurable way. If you look at micro stats, Zaitsev look bad at everything. So blaming his performance solely on Gardiner seems quite far-fetched.

I don't disagree that the two don't seem to have any chemistry at all. I just think Zaitsev is to blame for most of his performance, not Jake.
 

therealkoho

Him/Leaf/fan
Jul 10, 2009
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the Prior
Then we're back to talking about how Zaitsev has been bad even without Jake. When he played with Rielly, the two of them struggled mightily in pretty much every measurable way. If you look at micro stats, Zaitsev look bad at everything. So blaming his performance solely on Gardiner seems quite far-fetched.

I don't disagree that the two don't seem to have any chemistry at all. I just think Zaitsev is to blame for most of his performance, not Jake.

There is no problem in you seeing it that way, but I don't think you're necessarily correct in saying "most of his performance is his own fault" because most of his performance is informed by his defence partner and vice versa, Jakes stats don't seem to be suffering though, because maybe his partner is doing the right things allowing him to achieve a decent rate of success.

there are real problems with micro-stats, they tell only one half of one fifth the story and are still misleading.

Everyone talks about Nylander's incredible possession rate and how it's among the highest in the NHL and when viewed in a vacum are fantastic, but shouldn't that high rate of possession result in more scoring, like a lot more. Carrying the puck from your own blueline all the way to the opponents redline, around the net and then around the ozone one more time and not creating a dangerous scoring opportunity isn't good, when i played we had a name for the guys that did that kind of stuff.

hockey isn't situational in the way baseball is, nor is it made up of a series of stringent set pieces playing for or against tendencies like pro football is. The game is highly fluid and one set of circumstances that occur on the ice are likely never to happen again. The point goes back to the misleading nature of most micro/advanced stats
 

Nithoniniel

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Sep 7, 2012
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Everyone talks about Nylander's incredible possession rate and how it's among the highest in the NHL and when viewed in a vacum are fantastic, but shouldn't that high rate of possession result in more scoring, like a lot more. Carrying the puck from your own blueline all the way to the opponents redline, around the net and then around the ozone one more time and not creating a dangerous scoring opportunity isn't good, when i played we had a name for the guys that did that kind of stuff.
If he did the bolded, he wouldn't have incredible possession stats. He's generating shots. In fact, last I checked he generated more shots than 97% of the league. And it's not just perimeter shots either, as his xGF (shot metrics modified by shot location) is also very, very high.

As for how it should result in more scoring. Possession measures even strength. Since Nylander got going, he leads the league in even strength points per hour.

hockey isn't situational in the way baseball is, nor is it made up of a series of stringent set pieces playing for or against tendencies like pro football is. The game is highly fluid and one set of circumstances that occur on the ice are likely never to happen again. The point goes back to the misleading nature of most micro/advanced stats
All you said about hockey here is true. However, if that meant that possession stats were not valuable then that would show up in correlation, for example. It doesn't. Possession stats have been shown to be predictive, despite the fluid nature of the game.
 

Mr Hockey

Toronto
May 11, 2017
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hockey isn't situational in the way baseball is, nor is it made up of a series of stringent set pieces playing for or against tendencies like pro football is. The game is highly fluid and one set of circumstances that occur on the ice are likely never to happen again. The point goes back to the misleading nature of most micro/advanced stats

This 100% correct, I have said this years ago.
 

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