The Wennberg thread, part 2

Discussion in 'Columbus Blue Jackets' started by Cyclones Rock, Oct 11, 2019.

  1. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2008
    Messages:
    8,337
    Likes Received:
    3,560
    Trophy Points:
    172
    You amaze me. "Quoted from last summer". No. About a month ago after you flip flopped on a bum based on a dead cat bounce.

    Your opinionws jump around more than a kangaroo. "But I said that last week. That doesn't matter". Changing one's opinions based on play for a few games rather than holding an opinion based on two plus years isn't indicative of having very sound reasoning.

    Good analysis on Dougie Hamilton, btw. Or has that changed?

    Carry on.
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2019
  2. majormajor

    majormajor Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2018
    Messages:
    3,116
    Likes Received:
    2,192
    Trophy Points:
    101
    Last Spring I had Wennberg penciled out of my lineups for this season, I thought he was done here. They decided to give Wennberg another chance, maybe just because we had more than enough cap space and they figured if he doesn't succeed we have other options. As Torts put it, Wennberg would get a chance and Texier would take his spot at center if he failed. He had already taken Wennberg out of the lineup in the playoffs, there was nothing shocking about the idea of Wennberg being permanently benched by Torts.

    I don't think the FO ever strayed from a trade or a signing with the thought that "why would we acquire a serious scoring upgrade when we have Wennberg who is about to return to scoring in bunches?". This seems to be what you're suggesting, and I think that is very unlikely. I would give credence to the possibility that they thought something like "between Wennberg, Texier, Foligno, Jenner, etc.., one of these guys will be a solid 2C, so no point in acquiring one". I say that because I thought there was a good chance one of those guys would have been 2C quality, although there was a lot of uncertainty and I wanted Haula / some other addition regardless.

    TLDR: it seems pretty darn unlikely that the lack of further acquisitions was because of hopes of a Wennberg scoring breakout.
     
  3. majormajor

    majormajor Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2018
    Messages:
    3,116
    Likes Received:
    2,192
    Trophy Points:
    101
    If I watch a week of Seth Jones games and say "He's not playing well right now" that's not a "flip-flop" from the view that he's a pretty darn good #1D in the NHL. I'm sure you understand that right? Then what's so hard about it in the Wennberg context? Player performances go up and down all the time, just about every game.

    If I said last month "Wennberg is back to his best self, he will have a great season and we don't need to worry about 2C anymore" then that is a statement that can age well or age poorly. I never said anything like that about Wennberg last month. Throughout our debate about how he was playing in the first few weeks I avoided making declarative pronouncements about his performance in the future. I honestly would love to know whether you understand the difference here.
     
  4. majormajor

    majormajor Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2018
    Messages:
    3,116
    Likes Received:
    2,192
    Trophy Points:
    101
    Moving this discussion to the proper thread.

    I recall Jarmo saying "We'll give him a chance", and "He can't be as bad as he was last year". I don't know what his truest feelings were, but for every second he spoke highly of Wennberg he spoke a minute about Texier. Since Torts was this summer already discussing moving Texier into the 2C spot, I have to think Jarmo was at least aware of it as a significant possibility.

    Who? I think you might be doing what a lot of folks having been doing: assuming that myself and a few others had high hopes for Wennberg becoming a scorer again when all we were doing was defending Wennberg from scurrilous charges.

    "Wennberg is just awful at everything, we'd be better off without him"

    "Here's some stats to show that he's actually good at a few things. +2 at evens, a very low goals against rate [the stats right now].."

    "Why do you love Wennberg so much?"

    Take out all the PK minutes and Wennberg isn't playing crazy high ice time. He's 7th among forwards at 5 v 5. He plays about the same as Jenner and has been better so far this year than Jenner. In the same minutes Jenner has allowed 16 goals against and Wennberg 5 against. And who are you sitting here complaining about?

    [MOD]
     
    Last edited by moderator Viqsi: Nov 19, 2019
    koteka likes this.
  5. majormajor

    majormajor Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2018
    Messages:
    3,116
    Likes Received:
    2,192
    Trophy Points:
    101
    If Wennberg keeps playing like this it gives us a clearer picture of what sort of role he can play.

    1) He can't score. This is the confident version of Wennberg, the one that shoots. And there's not a lot of production, not much finishing touch there.

    2) He's killing it defensively, again. Close to one goal against per 60 minutes. And what's new is that he's 55% on the draw, a smidge ahead of Jenner, which makes him our top faceoff guy.

    All of that makes him an ideal shutdown guy. If he's used that way then I've got no complaints. He might be a bit overpaid if he's not a scorer but that's kind of irrelevant now, the deal is done. There's value in what he can do.

    It's tricky if Jenner is now considered the shutdown guy, but I'll argue he's not nearly as good at the shutdown part as Wennberg is, so I'd sooner move him to another task, or just run with both of them and two shutdown type units.

    Two Shutdown Units
    Wennberg
    Jenner

    Two Scoring Units
    Dubois
    xxxx

    Either put Texier in that second scoring unit spot or go get someone else to do it (Eric Staal?) until Texier is ready. Riley Nash, by the way, is under 40% on draws, which is bad enough that I'd prefer him on wing.
     
  6. DarkandStormy

    DarkandStormy Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2014
    Messages:
    3,701
    Likes Received:
    329
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Location:
    614
    339 forwards have played 150+ minutes at 5v5 in the league this season. Wennberg ranks 299th in points/60. In fact, his points/60 at 5v5 is better than only Josh Anderson, Alexander Texier, and Kole Sherwood on the team this season.

    Despite all that, he's getting rewarded with career-high TOI! WTF! He's absolutely not a 2nd line center. Even with the career-high TOI, he's not even on pace for 30 points. He's atrocious. He's a barely-bottom 6 PKing center being played way too much. I'd rather have Nash, Texier, or Jenner taking his minutes. He should be stapled to the 4th line and then promptly bought out this summer. What a bust.
     
    thebus88 and Double-Shift Lasse like this.
  7. majormajor

    majormajor Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2018
    Messages:
    3,116
    Likes Received:
    2,192
    Trophy Points:
    101
    What do you make of the results, then? Jenner has been on for 17 goals against, Wennberg on for 5 against.

    They play about the same ice time, but supposing we had another Jenner, would we be better off giving Wennberg's ice time to him? It seems we'd be worse off. Wennberg is winning the game at evens, Jenner is losing it.
     
  8. DarkandStormy

    DarkandStormy Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2014
    Messages:
    3,701
    Likes Received:
    329
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Location:
    614
    1) There are four other skaters and a goalie on the ice at 5v5. Trying to equate all the goal differential to Wennberg/Jenner is...dubious at best.

    2) Wennberg enjoys a PDO of 1.012, behind only Nash, at 5v5. Jenner is at a team-low .947. And again, it's rare that a single skater is going to influence PDO that significantly.

    So, largely, the goal differential is due to high shooting and save % when Wennberg is on the ice and vice versa for Jenner. You'll have to give me more evidence that either player is directly responsible for those results to the extent that they have influenced it that wildly from the average (1.00).
     
  9. thebus88

    thebus88 19/20 Columbus Blue Jackets: "It Is What It Is"

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2017
    Messages:
    2,671
    Likes Received:
    979
    Trophy Points:
    84
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Michigan
    Who do they play against most of the time and what is their primary role on the ice most of the time? The Jenner line gets tough minutes not the Wennberg line.

    Crazy to say Wennberg is better in any way than Jenner defensively. Not to mention the varying effort levels. Same should be said about his supposed improved faceoff ability. You can make these numbers mean whatever you want, anybody who watches the game knows you want Jenner out there over Wenny in tough defensive or PK situations, or taking a faceoff. I also like Jenner in the offensive zone more. Poor mans what?
     
  10. majormajor

    majormajor Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2018
    Messages:
    3,116
    Likes Received:
    2,192
    Trophy Points:
    101
    I didn't mean to imply that all the goal differential was owing to the work of the two players in question.

    Here's how I try and disentangle Wennberg and Jenner's work from their linemates' performance and the goalies' performance.

    The reason I am confident that these players contributions have been important to the results, and not a result of who they are on a line with, is that they are at the extreme ends. Jenner has worse GA results than the guys he plays with, Wennberg has better GA results than the guys he plays with. For most of this year Bjorkstrand had the same GA as Wennberg, because they had spent nearly the whole year together up until a couple weeks ago. Since then Bjorkstrand's GA results worsened and Wennberg's stayed the same. Bjorkstrand and Jenner got buried last night.

    The players are at the opposite ends in both shot quantity against and shot quality against. Surely some of the goal against differential is from goaltending, that might be most of it and still leave a gap. Jenner's units have faced 38% more shot attempts against, 44% more shots on net against, and 42% more expected goals against than Wennberg's units have faced.
     
  11. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2008
    Messages:
    8,337
    Likes Received:
    3,560
    Trophy Points:
    172
    GP 23 3g 5a 8 pts -1 Bemstrom 10:47 TOI
    GP 21 3g 5 a 8 pts 0 Milano 10:23 TOI
    GP 23 2g 6a 8 pts -1 Wennberg 18:19 TOI

    Wenny's tracking for roughly 30 points with tons of PP time. This experiment needs to end yesterday.
     
    DarkandStormy and thebus88 like this.
  12. DarkandStormy

    DarkandStormy Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2014
    Messages:
    3,701
    Likes Received:
    329
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Location:
    614
    Wennberg is 2nd on the team in PP time, behind only PLD I believe. Many nights, he still plays more minutes at EV than PLD, which is more of an indictment of Tortorella's coaching decisions than anything.

    His buyout is basically a rounding error for a few extra years if they buy him out this summer.
     
    MoeBartoli likes this.
  13. Crede777

    Crede777 Deputized

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2009
    Messages:
    13,135
    Likes Received:
    1,690
    Trophy Points:
    169
    Maybe they can have 3 lines centered by a guy who is actually a winger.

    Wennberg gets that TOI because he is one of the very few actual centers on the roster. And because he is decent at faceoffs and defensively.
     
  14. DarkandStormy

    DarkandStormy Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2014
    Messages:
    3,701
    Likes Received:
    329
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Location:
    614
    Why does he get the PP time then?

    Btw, at 5v5, Wennberg has the 4th-worst points/60 among CBJ forwards. He's better than Foligno, Anderson, and Texier.

    236 NHL forwards have played 250+ minutes at 5v5 this season so far. Wennberg ranks 212th in points/60 and Foligno ranks 221st (Anderson and Texier haven't yet played that many minutes at 5v5).
     
  15. Crede777

    Crede777 Deputized

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2009
    Messages:
    13,135
    Likes Received:
    1,690
    Trophy Points:
    169
    He gets PP time, I would assume, due to his ability to take faceoffs and pass the puck as a left handed pivot along the half wall.

    Besides Dubois, which left handed forward would be a better pivot?

    I also think it is worth pointing out last season as soon as they acquired a better left handed center (Duchene) to split with Dubois, Wennberg essentially sat out.
     
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2019
  16. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2008
    Messages:
    8,337
    Likes Received:
    3,560
    Trophy Points:
    172
    Wennberg is a 4th liner offensively. He's even worse than I thought he was.

    I can't find a decent site which lists points/60. Could you link the site you used? Thanks in advance.
     
  17. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2008
    Messages:
    8,337
    Likes Received:
    3,560
    Trophy Points:
    172
    He gets 18 minutes because of the GM.
     
  18. Crede777

    Crede777 Deputized

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2009
    Messages:
    13,135
    Likes Received:
    1,690
    Trophy Points:
    169
    And because of the coach.
     
    MoeBartoli likes this.
  19. DarkandStormy

    DarkandStormy Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2014
    Messages:
    3,701
    Likes Received:
    329
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Location:
    614
    Natural Stat Trick

    You can mess with filters and whatnot. I select "Rates" which gives you the stats per 60 minutes of ice time. They also have CF, Fenwick, xGF, etc. under "On Ice" whereas I'm pulling points from "Individual."

    EDIT - technically, to get to 4th-line equivalent, we'd need the sample to include 372 forwards (31 teams x 12 forwards = 372). So I expanded it to 125 minutes at 5v5 among forwards, and 374 forwards have played at least that many minutes.

    Of the 374 NHL forwards who have played at least 125+ minutes at 5v5 (and I'm not cutting down for injuries, sent to AHL, or anything like that), Wennberg ranks 311th. That's technically 4th line considering there are 93 forwards on the 4th line at any given time around the league. To be fair, Foligno is 323rd, Anderson is 354th, and Texier is 357th.

    Now, 25ish games is not the biggest sample size. So let's look at last year among the 379 forwards who played 450+ minutes at 5v5. Wennberg ranked 328th in p/60, which was better than only Dubinsky and Nash among the CBJ.

    So this is just who he is now. He's one of the worst offensively productive forwards in the NHL at even strength. And Torts plays him 18+ minutes/night. Amazing.
     
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2019
  20. DarkandStormy

    DarkandStormy Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2014
    Messages:
    3,701
    Likes Received:
    329
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Location:
    614
    The last PP goal Wennberg was doing his "jump/screen tip" attempt in front of the net.

    Have they tried Milano with any consistency on the PP?
     
  21. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2008
    Messages:
    8,337
    Likes Received:
    3,560
    Trophy Points:
    172
    Thanks for the source and the directions!
     
  22. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2008
    Messages:
    8,337
    Likes Received:
    3,560
    Trophy Points:
    172
    Cap Hit Calculations for buyout in June of 2020.

    SEASONINITIAL BASE SALARYINITIAL CAP HITSIGNING BONUSBUYOUT COSTPOST-BUYOUT EARNINGSSAVINGSCAP HIT ([​IMG] CBJ)
    2020-21$5,350,000$4,900,000$0$891,667$891,667$4,458,333$441,667
    2021-22$5,350,000$4,900,000$0$891,667$891,667$4,458,333$441,667
    2022-23$5,350,000$4,900,000$0$891,667$891,667$4,458,333$441,667
    2023-24$0$0$0$891,667$891,667-$891,667$891,667
    2024-25$0$0$0$891,667$891,667-$891,667$891,667
    2025-26$0$0$0$891,667$891,667-$891,667$891,667
    TOTAL$16,050,000$14,700,000$0$5,350,000$5,350,000$10,700,000$4,000,002
    Contract Buyout Details - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

    He can go play in Europe and get almost $900k per year for the next 6 years. It would work for both sides.
     
  23. DarkandStormy

    DarkandStormy Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2014
    Messages:
    3,701
    Likes Received:
    329
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Location:
    614
    ^Yeah, that's basically a rounding error. As long as the team can trust Foudy, Texier...literally anyone in those middle 6 C roles then you do it.
     
  24. Double-Shift Lasse

    Double-Shift Lasse Just post better

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2004
    Messages:
    25,953
    Likes Received:
    3,861
    Trophy Points:
    241
    Location:
    Semirural Cbus
    And the owner. And whatever Mike Priest does.
     
  25. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2008
    Messages:
    8,337
    Likes Received:
    3,560
    Trophy Points:
    172
    Tracking at 26 points.

    But, oh, the defensive awareness!
     

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice
monitoring_string = "358c248ada348a047a4b9bb27a146148"