The Wennberg thread, part 2

Cyclones Rock

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It was a statement about how he was playing at that time. We were debating how he was playing at that time. How that statement "ages" doesn't change later regardless of whether he wins the Conn Smythe or gets thrown out of professional hockey at some later date.

It's like you quoted a news report from last summer describing things being shut down in a heat wave, and said "this hasn't aged very well". Disingenuous.

Me rn:





That would imply that for the first 5 or 6 games he wasn't playing like the "same old Wennberg", which is precisely what the debate was about (the quote is from a month ago). I said he was playing differently, CR said he was playing the same. Thank you for taking my side of things.

:laugh:


You amaze me. "Quoted from last summer". No. About a month ago after you flip flopped on a bum based on a dead cat bounce.

Your opinionws jump around more than a kangaroo. "But I said that last week. That doesn't matter". Changing one's opinions based on play for a few games rather than holding an opinion based on two plus years isn't indicative of having very sound reasoning.

Good analysis on Dougie Hamilton, btw. Or has that changed?

Carry on.
 
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majormajor

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Nothing "scapegoating" about it. He's part of a weak equation (the CBJ forward group as a whole).

People who understand hockey wanted him gone last year. His deficiencies were obvious. They had been an ongoing problem. Players don't magically change their psychology and playing styles at age 25. You are who you are by that age.

Maybe Jarmo thinks he has mystical powers to change players at Wennberg's age. He's that arrogant.

Last Spring I had Wennberg penciled out of my lineups for this season, I thought he was done here. They decided to give Wennberg another chance, maybe just because we had more than enough cap space and they figured if he doesn't succeed we have other options. As Torts put it, Wennberg would get a chance and Texier would take his spot at center if he failed. He had already taken Wennberg out of the lineup in the playoffs, there was nothing shocking about the idea of Wennberg being permanently benched by Torts.

I don't think the FO ever strayed from a trade or a signing with the thought that "why would we acquire a serious scoring upgrade when we have Wennberg who is about to return to scoring in bunches?". This seems to be what you're suggesting, and I think that is very unlikely. I would give credence to the possibility that they thought something like "between Wennberg, Texier, Foligno, Jenner, etc.., one of these guys will be a solid 2C, so no point in acquiring one". I say that because I thought there was a good chance one of those guys would have been 2C quality, although there was a lot of uncertainty and I wanted Haula / some other addition regardless.

TLDR: it seems pretty darn unlikely that the lack of further acquisitions was because of hopes of a Wennberg scoring breakout.
 

majormajor

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You amaze me. "Quoted from last summer". No. About a month ago after you flip flopped on a bum based on a dead cat bounce.

Your opinionws jump around more than a kangaroo. "But I said that last week. That doesn't matter". Changing one's opinions based on play for a few games rather than holding an opinion based on two plus years isn't indicative of having very sound reasoning.

If I watch a week of Seth Jones games and say "He's not playing well right now" that's not a "flip-flop" from the view that he's a pretty darn good #1D in the NHL. I'm sure you understand that right? Then what's so hard about it in the Wennberg context? Player performances go up and down all the time, just about every game.

If I said last month "Wennberg is back to his best self, he will have a great season and we don't need to worry about 2C anymore" then that is a statement that can age well or age poorly. I never said anything like that about Wennberg last month. Throughout our debate about how he was playing in the first few weeks I avoided making declarative pronouncements about his performance in the future. I honestly would love to know whether you understand the difference here.
 

majormajor

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Moving this discussion to the proper thread.

Jarmo was still willing to wager on him

I recall Jarmo saying "We'll give him a chance", and "He can't be as bad as he was last year". I don't know what his truest feelings were, but for every second he spoke highly of Wennberg he spoke a minute about Texier. Since Torts was this summer already discussing moving Texier into the 2C spot, I have to think Jarmo was at least aware of it as a significant possibility.

as were some on this Board.

Who? I think you might be doing what a lot of folks having been doing: assuming that myself and a few others had high hopes for Wennberg becoming a scorer again when all we were doing was defending Wennberg from scurrilous charges.

"Wennberg is just awful at everything, we'd be better off without him"

"Here's some stats to show that he's actually good at a few things. +2 at evens, a very low goals against rate [the stats right now].."

"Why do you love Wennberg so much?"

And as Stormy cites, Torts keeps betting on him by giving him 2C - heck, sometimes 1C - ice time.

Take out all the PK minutes and Wennberg isn't playing crazy high ice time. He's 7th among forwards at 5 v 5. He plays about the same as Jenner and has been better so far this year than Jenner. In the same minutes Jenner has allowed 16 goals against and Wennberg 5 against. And who are you sitting here complaining about?

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majormajor

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If Wennberg keeps playing like this it gives us a clearer picture of what sort of role he can play.

1) He can't score. This is the confident version of Wennberg, the one that shoots. And there's not a lot of production, not much finishing touch there.

2) He's killing it defensively, again. Close to one goal against per 60 minutes. And what's new is that he's 55% on the draw, a smidge ahead of Jenner, which makes him our top faceoff guy.

All of that makes him an ideal shutdown guy. If he's used that way then I've got no complaints. He might be a bit overpaid if he's not a scorer but that's kind of irrelevant now, the deal is done. There's value in what he can do.

It's tricky if Jenner is now considered the shutdown guy, but I'll argue he's not nearly as good at the shutdown part as Wennberg is, so I'd sooner move him to another task, or just run with both of them and two shutdown type units.

Two Shutdown Units
Wennberg
Jenner

Two Scoring Units
Dubois
xxxx

Either put Texier in that second scoring unit spot or go get someone else to do it (Eric Staal?) until Texier is ready. Riley Nash, by the way, is under 40% on draws, which is bad enough that I'd prefer him on wing.
 

DarkandStormy

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339 forwards have played 150+ minutes at 5v5 in the league this season. Wennberg ranks 299th in points/60. In fact, his points/60 at 5v5 is better than only Josh Anderson, Alexander Texier, and Kole Sherwood on the team this season.

Despite all that, he's getting rewarded with career-high TOI! WTF! He's absolutely not a 2nd line center. Even with the career-high TOI, he's not even on pace for 30 points. He's atrocious. He's a barely-bottom 6 PKing center being played way too much. I'd rather have Nash, Texier, or Jenner taking his minutes. He should be stapled to the 4th line and then promptly bought out this summer. What a bust.
 

majormajor

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339 forwards have played 150+ minutes at 5v5 in the league this season. Wennberg ranks 299th in points/60. In fact, his points/60 at 5v5 is better than only Josh Anderson, Alexander Texier, and Kole Sherwood on the team this season.

Despite all that, he's getting rewarded with career-high TOI! WTF! He's absolutely not a 2nd line center. Even with the career-high TOI, he's not even on pace for 30 points. He's atrocious. He's a barely-bottom 6 PKing center being played way too much. I'd rather have Nash, Texier, or Jenner taking his minutes. He should be stapled to the 4th line and then promptly bought out this summer. What a bust.

What do you make of the results, then? Jenner has been on for 17 goals against, Wennberg on for 5 against.

They play about the same ice time, but supposing we had another Jenner, would we be better off giving Wennberg's ice time to him? It seems we'd be worse off. Wennberg is winning the game at evens, Jenner is losing it.
 

DarkandStormy

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What do you make of the results, then? Jenner has been on for 17 goals against, Wennberg on for 5 against.

They play about the same ice time, but supposing we had another Jenner, would we be better off giving Wennberg's ice time to him? It seems we'd be worse off. Wennberg is winning the game at evens, Jenner is losing it.

1) There are four other skaters and a goalie on the ice at 5v5. Trying to equate all the goal differential to Wennberg/Jenner is...dubious at best.

2) Wennberg enjoys a PDO of 1.012, behind only Nash, at 5v5. Jenner is at a team-low .947. And again, it's rare that a single skater is going to influence PDO that significantly.

So, largely, the goal differential is due to high shooting and save % when Wennberg is on the ice and vice versa for Jenner. You'll have to give me more evidence that either player is directly responsible for those results to the extent that they have influenced it that wildly from the average (1.00).
 

thebus88

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What do you make of the results, then? Jenner has been on for 17 goals against, Wennberg on for 5 against.

They play about the same ice time, but supposing we had another Jenner, would we be better off giving Wennberg's ice time to him? It seems we'd be worse off. Wennberg is winning the game at evens, Jenner is losing it.

Who do they play against most of the time and what is their primary role on the ice most of the time? The Jenner line gets tough minutes not the Wennberg line.

Crazy to say Wennberg is better in any way than Jenner defensively. Not to mention the varying effort levels. Same should be said about his supposed improved faceoff ability. You can make these numbers mean whatever you want, anybody who watches the game knows you want Jenner out there over Wenny in tough defensive or PK situations, or taking a faceoff. I also like Jenner in the offensive zone more. Poor mans what?
 

majormajor

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1) There are four other skaters and a goalie on the ice at 5v5. Trying to equate all the goal differential to Wennberg/Jenner is...dubious at best.

I didn't mean to imply that all the goal differential was owing to the work of the two players in question.

Here's how I try and disentangle Wennberg and Jenner's work from their linemates' performance and the goalies' performance.

The reason I am confident that these players contributions have been important to the results, and not a result of who they are on a line with, is that they are at the extreme ends. Jenner has worse GA results than the guys he plays with, Wennberg has better GA results than the guys he plays with. For most of this year Bjorkstrand had the same GA as Wennberg, because they had spent nearly the whole year together up until a couple weeks ago. Since then Bjorkstrand's GA results worsened and Wennberg's stayed the same. Bjorkstrand and Jenner got buried last night.

2) Wennberg enjoys a PDO of 1.012, behind only Nash, at 5v5. Jenner is at a team-low .947. And again, it's rare that a single skater is going to influence PDO that significantly.

So, largely, the goal differential is due to high shooting and save % when Wennberg is on the ice and vice versa for Jenner. You'll have to give me more evidence that either player is directly responsible for those results to the extent that they have influenced it that wildly from the average (1.00).

The players are at the opposite ends in both shot quantity against and shot quality against. Surely some of the goal against differential is from goaltending, that might be most of it and still leave a gap. Jenner's units have faced 38% more shot attempts against, 44% more shots on net against, and 42% more expected goals against than Wennberg's units have faced.
 

Cyclones Rock

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GP 23 3g 5a 8 pts -1 Bemstrom 10:47 TOI
GP 21 3g 5 a 8 pts 0 Milano 10:23 TOI
GP 23 2g 6a 8 pts -1 Wennberg 18:19 TOI

Wenny's tracking for roughly 30 points with tons of PP time. This experiment needs to end yesterday.
 

DarkandStormy

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GP 23 3g 5a 8 pts -1 Bemstrom 10:47 TOI
GP 21 3g 5 a 8 pts 0 Milano 10:23 TOI
GP 23 2g 6a 8 pts -1 Wennberg 18:19 TOI

Wenny's tracking for roughly 30 points with tons of PP time. This experiment needs to end yesterday.

Wennberg is 2nd on the team in PP time, behind only PLD I believe. Many nights, he still plays more minutes at EV than PLD, which is more of an indictment of Tortorella's coaching decisions than anything.

His buyout is basically a rounding error for a few extra years if they buy him out this summer.
 
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Crede777

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GP 23 3g 5a 8 pts -1 Bemstrom 10:47 TOI
GP 21 3g 5 a 8 pts 0 Milano 10:23 TOI
GP 23 2g 6a 8 pts -1 Wennberg 18:19 TOI

Wenny's tracking for roughly 30 points with tons of PP time. This experiment needs to end yesterday.
Maybe they can have 3 lines centered by a guy who is actually a winger.

Wennberg gets that TOI because he is one of the very few actual centers on the roster. And because he is decent at faceoffs and defensively.
 

DarkandStormy

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Maybe they can have 3 lines centered by a guy who is actually a winger.

Wennberg gets that TOI because he is one of the very few actual centers on the roster. And because he is decent at faceoffs and defensively.

Why does he get the PP time then?

Btw, at 5v5, Wennberg has the 4th-worst points/60 among CBJ forwards. He's better than Foligno, Anderson, and Texier.

236 NHL forwards have played 250+ minutes at 5v5 this season so far. Wennberg ranks 212th in points/60 and Foligno ranks 221st (Anderson and Texier haven't yet played that many minutes at 5v5).
 

Crede777

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Why does he get the PP time then?

Btw, at 5v5, Wennberg has the 4th-worst points/60 among CBJ forwards. He's better than Foligno, Anderson, and Texier.

236 NHL forwards have played 250+ minutes at 5v5 this season so far. Wennberg ranks 212th in points/60 and Foligno ranks 221st (Anderson and Texier haven't yet played that many minutes at 5v5).
He gets PP time, I would assume, due to his ability to take faceoffs and pass the puck as a left handed pivot along the half wall.

Besides Dubois, which left handed forward would be a better pivot?

I also think it is worth pointing out last season as soon as they acquired a better left handed center (Duchene) to split with Dubois, Wennberg essentially sat out.
 
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Cyclones Rock

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Why does he get the PP time then?

Btw, at 5v5, Wennberg has the 4th-worst points/60 among CBJ forwards. He's better than Foligno, Anderson, and Texier.

236 NHL forwards have played 250+ minutes at 5v5 this season so far. Wennberg ranks 212th in points/60 and Foligno ranks 221st (Anderson and Texier haven't yet played that many minutes at 5v5).

Wennberg is a 4th liner offensively. He's even worse than I thought he was.

I can't find a decent site which lists points/60. Could you link the site you used? Thanks in advance.
 

Cyclones Rock

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Maybe they can have 3 lines centered by a guy who is actually a winger.

Wennberg gets that TOI because he is one of the very few actual centers on the roster. And because he is decent at faceoffs and defensively.

He gets 18 minutes because of the GM.
 

DarkandStormy

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Wennberg is a 4th liner offensively. He's even worse than I thought he was.

I can't find a decent site which lists points/60. Could you link the site you used? Thanks in advance.

Natural Stat Trick

You can mess with filters and whatnot. I select "Rates" which gives you the stats per 60 minutes of ice time. They also have CF, Fenwick, xGF, etc. under "On Ice" whereas I'm pulling points from "Individual."

EDIT - technically, to get to 4th-line equivalent, we'd need the sample to include 372 forwards (31 teams x 12 forwards = 372). So I expanded it to 125 minutes at 5v5 among forwards, and 374 forwards have played at least that many minutes.

Of the 374 NHL forwards who have played at least 125+ minutes at 5v5 (and I'm not cutting down for injuries, sent to AHL, or anything like that), Wennberg ranks 311th. That's technically 4th line considering there are 93 forwards on the 4th line at any given time around the league. To be fair, Foligno is 323rd, Anderson is 354th, and Texier is 357th.

Now, 25ish games is not the biggest sample size. So let's look at last year among the 379 forwards who played 450+ minutes at 5v5. Wennberg ranked 328th in p/60, which was better than only Dubinsky and Nash among the CBJ.

So this is just who he is now. He's one of the worst offensively productive forwards in the NHL at even strength. And Torts plays him 18+ minutes/night. Amazing.
 
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DarkandStormy

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He gets PP time, I would assume, due to his ability to take faceoffs and pass the puck as a left handed pivot along the half wall.

Besides Dubois, which left handed forward would be a better pivot?

The last PP goal Wennberg was doing his "jump/screen tip" attempt in front of the net.

Have they tried Milano with any consistency on the PP?
 

Cyclones Rock

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Wennberg is 2nd on the team in PP time, behind only PLD I believe. Many nights, he still plays more minutes at EV than PLD, which is more of an indictment of Tortorella's coaching decisions than anything.

His buyout is basically a rounding error for a few extra years if they buy him out this summer.
Cap Hit Calculations for buyout in June of 2020.

SEASONINITIAL BASE SALARYINITIAL CAP HITSIGNING BONUSBUYOUT COSTPOST-BUYOUT EARNINGSSAVINGSCAP HIT (
columbus_blue_jackets.svg
CBJ)
2020-21$5,350,000$4,900,000$0$891,667$891,667$4,458,333$441,667
2021-22$5,350,000$4,900,000$0$891,667$891,667$4,458,333$441,667
2022-23$5,350,000$4,900,000$0$891,667$891,667$4,458,333$441,667
2023-24$0$0$0$891,667$891,667-$891,667$891,667
2024-25$0$0$0$891,667$891,667-$891,667$891,667
2025-26$0$0$0$891,667$891,667-$891,667$891,667
TOTAL$16,050,000$14,700,000$0$5,350,000$5,350,000$10,700,000$4,000,002
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Contract Buyout Details - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

He can go play in Europe and get almost $900k per year for the next 6 years. It would work for both sides.
 

DarkandStormy

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^Yeah, that's basically a rounding error. As long as the team can trust Foudy, Texier...literally anyone in those middle 6 C roles then you do it.
 

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