The stock market thread.

Discussion in 'The Lounge' started by stingo, May 12, 2015.

  1. Jiminy Cricket #TeamMeat

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    Report: I have officially MAXED OUT on money. That's right, I now have the MAXIMUM amount of money that someone can have and will no longer benefit from any gains. Shorts are literally bankrupt from missing out on this recovery. :biglaugh::biglaugh::biglaugh:
     
  2. Hockey Outsider Registered User

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    If your argument consists of looking at the very top of a bull market, then comparing it to the very bottom of a crash (as you did in post #931 and again in #943) - then yes, that's obviously cherry-picking.

    My point was, despite short-term volatility, the stock market rises over the majority of ten-, twenty-, and thirty-year periods. The longer the period, the closer that percentage gets to 100%. I'm not sure how you can accuse of me shifting the goalposts. My position is stated clearly. It's also true - this is obvious to anyone who objectively looks at the data.

    Have you actually done the math? The strategy you're suggesting isn't new - and it's a bad one. It would have caused you to lose a lot of money over the past forty years. It would have served you well during the 2008 crash (very well, actually) - but you would have lost money during most other market fluctuations from 1980 to present. Overall you would have ended up behind a simple buy-and-hold approach.

    What are you even arguing here? My initial post was advice to someone just entering the workforce (i.e., someone with a 30+ year horizon). Forget the (considerable) volatility in 2020 - are you suggesting that the stock market is likely to be lower in 30 years than it is today? Do you think they'll come out ahead investing in treasuries, which you've mentioned a few times? (Those are currently yielding 1.27% over 30 years - less than inflation).

    I'm right because the data conclusively backs my position. (That's in reference to the positions I've actually taken. Not once have I speculated about where the market is headed in the short term. I don't know that - and neither do you, if you're being honest).

    Whether the market is efficient is an interesting question (I don't think it's perfectly efficient - so we're in agreement). My point was - if someone has magically found the way to beat the market, I very much doubt they'd publish it for free on the internet.

    If you're disputing that the stock market plunge was directly caused by fear over the pandemic (and the economic effects of social distancing), I'm not sure what to tell you. Do you not see the cause and effect relationship there?

    By the way - I've never argued that "everything was really fine". Not sure if you're confusing me with someone else. What I actually said was, over the long term, the markets will recover from this. If someone had extra cash sitting around, there was a great buying opportunity a few weeks ago. Now that the market has significantly rebounded (it's up approximately 25% in three weeks), I'm no longer convinced that stocks are deeply discounted. If the market dips 20%+ again, I'll revisit that position and will most likely buy more.

    For the record - you were the one who brought up Hussman, not me. It would have been easy for me to pick him as an example of how being consistently bearish on the market will cause you to lose a lot of money over long-run. See the data I already posted - since 2000, the market has more than doubled, while Hussman's fund (designed to track the S&P) lost more than half its value. You would have made more than four times as much money just buying & holding the S&P.

    You were free to "look for context and get the full picture" as your account balance shrunk to one-quarter of that of a buy-and-hold investor. Or does an article (interesting as it may be) trump twenty years of empirical evidence?

    In fairness - just because Hussman has been consistently wrong for two decades, it doesn't mean that his fall 2019 article is necessarily wrong. That's a fair point. But you're dismissing his poor track record far too casually. I can provide some of his articles from seven or eight years ago - when he did the same thing, claiming a recession's just around the corner and the S&P (which has more than doubled since then) was "overvalued, overbought, overbullish". That's his shtick - he's been bearish since the turn of the century. He'll eventually be right through chance alone.

    For the record - I posted the complete history of his fund from its inception (July 2000) to present. I'm not cherry-picking anything, I'm showing all the data that exists. In that period there have been three significant (>30%) market corrections, so it's not like this bearish investor never had a chance to be right. He was right some of the time - it's just that, he missed out on so much growth in the years that he was wrong, that he lost a lot of money overall.

    Ultimately, if you're trying to convince me (or other people) to ignore some very basic principles (such as, the market will rise over the long-term), you're going to have to do better than some cherry-picked numbers and one article from a fund manager who has been spectacularly wrong over the past 20 years.
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2020
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  3. Jiminy Cricket #TeamMeat

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    Update: I am still Literally Rich because I did not short the market like doomsday nerds. They were right about a doomsday scenario, but they brought it upon themselves by missing out on these explosive gains. :biglaugh:

    BUT MUH LAYOFFS :blah:

    BUT MUH TREASURIES :blah:

    BUT MUH 2008 CRASH :blah:

    BUT MUH HUSSMAN :blah:

    Enjoy being literally bankrupt! :biglaugh::biglaugh::biglaugh::clap:
     
  4. lukester Registered User

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    Wti crude at 12$ a barrel currently!
     
  5. alpine4life Registered User

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    Now negative 40$... WTF is going right now??

     
  6. halincandenza Registered User

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    Insanity ! I never thought I’d see the day!
    Oil is -36 a barrel. First time it’s ever traded in the negative .

    Not an oil guy , but can one buy a barrel of oil electronically ? If so, I think you’d make a ton of $$$
     
  7. alpine4life Registered User

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    a friend of mine just purchased 650$ worth of shares, that were worth 88$ in 2018 but that have plummeted to 3.05$ today
     
  8. Hammettf2b oldmanyellsatcloud.jpg

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    Staying away from purchasing anything oil related right now. There's companies who aren't going to make it because of this. I don't want to risk money based on a guess.
     
  9. A1LeafNation Our time! Our time!

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    If Oil companies go down what does that mean for the American economy?
     
  10. hitman9172 Registered User

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    As long as you have an emergency fund and can keep your job through this recession, now is a great buying opportunity if you're still accumulating (i.e., buying more stocks than selling). Even if the market goes down another 20, 30, 40% from today, just keep buying on the down, because it's likely that the stock market will be much higher 10, 20, 30 years from now. Buy low-cost, diversified index funds and you'll turn out fine.

    During bad times, I like to read this article about the World's Worst Market Timer, i..e, a hypothetical investor who only invested immediately before past market crashes and still turned out OK: What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks? - A Wealth of Common Sense

    As John Bogle said, it's time in the market that matters, not timing the market. Be patient and stay the course.
     
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  11. The Crypto Guy Registered User

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    Recommendations?
     
  12. hitman9172 Registered User

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    I personally like Vanguard and BMO ETF products because of their low Management Expense Ratios. For a Canadian investor, these are good options:

    Canadian stocks:
    VCN (Vanguard TSX/S&P index)
    XIC (BMO TSX/S&P index)

    International stocks:
    VXC (Vanguard ex-Canada stocks)
    XAW (BMO ex-Canada stocks)
    VFV (Vanguard S&P 500 (American) stocks)

    Canadian bonds:
    VAB
     
  13. Pengwins Registered User

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    anyone investing in airlines now?
     
  14. The Real JT Registered User

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    My Uncle Sam now has a piece as a part of the CARES act.
    The airlines received less in the way of grants and unattached $ than they hoped for.
    Looks like a risky play to me.

    uncle-sam-mocking-and-taunting-somebody-and-airplane-taking-off-background_1200x1200.jpg
     
  15. Jiminy Cricket #TeamMeat

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    Dang, I wish I had listened to the doomsday nerds and missed out on this beautiful 30% rally. Don't worry guys, I'm sure the Salt & Pepper 500 will fall to 1250 any day now.






    ...........................................................................................:biglaugh::biglaugh::biglaugh::biglaugh::biglaugh:
     
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  16. Bogart Here's lookin at you, kid

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    I know you're j/k, but I doubt it. It's on pace for the best month since 74.
     
  17. Roman Fell #JYPNation

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    news of a potential drug treatment and the markets rose today

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Jiminy Cricket #TeamMeat

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    IMAGINE MISSING OUT ON AN HISTORIC 33% RALLY OVER THE LAST 2 MONTHS BECAUSE YOU WERE BUSY PANICKING AND WRITING ANGRY LETTERS ON HFBOARD`S :biglaugh::biglaugh::biglaugh:

    THE ANCONOMY IS BOOMING!!! :yo::yo::yo::yo::yo::yo:

    [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
  19. Jiminy Cricket #TeamMeat

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    Imagine stockpiling cash and being left in the dust while it rots away LMAO.

    #CashIsTrash :yo::yo::yo:
     
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  20. Jiminy Cricket #TeamMeat

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    We are approaching all-time highs as Doomsday Nerds frantically shuffle through their notes trying to figure out what went wrong.
     
  21. halincandenza Registered User

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    I made a killing on VUN.to and Beyond Meat during the last tank.

    Beyond meat was 55 bucks. Today it hits $150 - nearly a triple.

    VUN.to index fund bought @ 43 , 44, 45 , and 46 dollar range - down today to 56 but last week it was @ 59.00.

    I think we might be due for another correction here & another buying opportunity possibly in the next month or so.

    How did everyone do from March until now ? Any good wins ?
     
  22. Zaide Devil Eyes Come

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    BYND was on my watchlist, but I never put anything. Even with the crash, I didn't think it would go up so much considering it had been going down since last summer. :( I'm up about 25% overall since March, could have done much better, but I'll take it as a newbie.
     
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  23. Bruins4Lifer Registered User

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    XEG was doing really well for me until the big drop last week. Still up close to 40% on it since I bought in March. Will keep holding like I planned to for another year or two.
     
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  24. halincandenza Registered User

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    great job. 40% is killer. If XEG goes back to its highs and you hold, that will be a good tripling of your money. Gotta love it. Hold long and prosper!
    Looks like that stock is still a good buy, too.
     
  25. BahlDeep Registered User

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    That's why you don't try and time the market.

    @Mud the ACAS you still in cash bro?
     
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